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Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After US Attacks Kharg Island Ahead Of Trump's 8pm Iran Deadline

US futures reversed earlier gains and oil advanced following reports that Iran's Kharg island was targeted earlier on Tuesday, while the market was largely paralyzed ahead of Trump’s 8pm ET deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face escalation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures slide 0.6%. In premarket trading, all Mag7 names are lower even as AVGO (+3% pre-mkt) is bid after a TPU supply pact with GOOGL (+55bps) while ASML (-80bps) is weaker following a proposed US law that would further curb semiconductor exports to China (targeting ASML’s deep ultraviolet lithography machine ). Managed care is well bid after the final Medicare Advantage rate of +2.48% (vs ~1% bogey) was released last night (HUM +9%, CVS +7%, UNH +6%, ALHC +11%). Bond yields rise 1bp, 10Y TSY yield at 4.34%, the USD is also higher while commodities are mixed with oil reversing earlier losses and rising over 2%. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Durable / Cap Goods, and NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations. Ultimately, expect weaker volumes today with some market swings on unconfirmed ceasefire / deal chatter.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.06%, Amazon -0.4%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla -1.3%, Nvidia -1.2%, Apple -1%)

Managed care companies including Humana gain after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized a 2.48% rate hike for health insurers in 2027. Investors see the pay boost as a meaningful improvement over the initial rates the agency proposed in January. Humana (HUM) rises 9% and CVS Health gains 6%.
Broadcom (AVGO) rises 3% after the chipmaker announced a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply Tensor Processing Units. The companies also confirmed plans to work with Anthropic to power the AI startup’s burgeoning operations.
Estée Lauder (EL) slips 1% after Spanish newspaper Expansion reported that the the company and Puig owning families are set to hold talks this week in New York over their potential merger.
Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (ORGO) rises 19% after the company said a randomized controlled trial of 170 patients in a diabetic foot ulcer trial achieved its primary endpoint.
Wingstop (WING) rises 1.9% as Citi upgrades the fried chicken restaurant operator to buy, saying the valuation offers an attractive entry point.
Pershing Square proposed a combination with Universal Music Group that would move the listing into a US-based acquisition vehicle. It’s a deal that Bill Ackman’s fund said values the world’s biggest music label at a 78% premium to its last closing price. 
In other news, Samsung reported preliminary operating profit that soared 755% to a record, with memory’s contribution estimated to be close to 90% of total operating profit. Rivals OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet’s Google have begun working together to try to clamp down on Chinese competitors extracting results from cutting-edge US AI models. And Anthropic said its revenue run rate has now topped $30 billion, with more than 1,000 businesses spending over $1 million annually, a rate that has doubled since February. BlackRock is setting its sights on a corner of the $13.7 trillion US ETF industry long controlled by Invesco — tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. Some Tiger Cub funds incurred losses in March. Maverick Capital’s Long Enhanced Fund and its main hedge fund tumbled 8.1% and 5%, respectively, while Viking Global Investors’ flagship fund lost 4.1%, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time. The Pentagon canceled the morning press briefing due to be led by Pete Hegseth, giving no reason. WSJ reported last night that hope is fading for a final deal by the deadline and RTRS reported this morning that a Senior Iranian Source said Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S. and the IRGC warned neighboring countries “restraint is over” and threatened to disrupt regional oil and gas supplies for years to come. Strikes continued overnight. 

“It seems clear that it is extraordinarily difficult to invest on expectations for binary outcomes,” notes Jeffrey Palma at Cohen & Steers. On the other hand, David Kruk at La Financiere de l’Echiquier, set out the dilemma confronting traders, observing that the “market is now set up in such a way that the real pain trade is upwards.”

Investors are watching for any sign of a breakthrough amid a flurry of diplomacy before the 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline. Trump insists any deal must ensure uninterrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for Middle East oil flows. He’s threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants if no accord is reached. “The market remains volatile,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “It continues to swing between de-escalation hopes and Trump following through on his threats.”

Oil remains in focus, with WTI crude rising to the highest since June 2022. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expressed caution over the wide gap between the Brent spot price, which reflects expectations of a resolution, and Dated Brent, which represents actual cargoes assigned specific loading dates. At above $140, the latter signals acute spot scarcity.

Trump’s deadline marks the latest pivotal moment in the war, which has killed thousands of people and triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global oil market. Israel told Iranians to refrain from using their country’s railway network until 9 p.m. local time, the first warning about such infrastructure that usually precedes an attack. Iran launched seven ballistic missiles and several more drones at Saudi Arabia overnight into Tuesday, while the Israel Defense Forces reported two missile volleys from Iran since midnight.

Meanwhile, the technology sector is looking increasingly attractive for investors as valuations fall below those of the wider stock market, according to Goldman strategists. Any lasting shock to the global economy from the war in Iran is also likely to benefit the sector as tech cash flows are less sensitive to economic growth, the strategists said. 

The recent economic numbers aren’t boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting rates anytime soon. March CPI on Friday is predicted to show the largest month-over-month increase in headline inflation since June 2022, largely driven by a spike in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. 

Europe's Stoxx 600 is up by 0.6%, with the media subindex leading the way on a jump for Universal Music on a €56 billion takeover proposal. UMG is the biggest gainer after Pershing Square offered to buy the entertainment company, while tech underperforms, weighed down by ASML as US lawmakers propose tighter curbs on chip equipment exports to China. Here are the biggest movers:

Universal Music Group shares rise as much as 24% in Amsterdam, but trade well below the value of an offer from Pershing Square Capital Management amid doubt over whether the deal will happen
JCDecaux rises as much as 5.8% as TD Cowen upgrades the outdoor advertising company to buy from hold, seeing a clear inflection point as China returns to growth
Volati gains as much as 7.2%, the most since November, as Nordea reiterates its buy rating and raises its price target on the Swedish industrial group, saying the company is well-positioned to benefit from a cyclical rebound
ASML shares fall as much as 4.7% on Tuesday after US lawmakers unveiled legislation aimed at tightening restrictions on chip tool exports to China. The goal is to subject Dutch and Japanese firms to the same curbs that American companies face
Leonardo shares fall as much as 5.5% on the possibility of a management change at the Italian defense group; Bloomberg News reported that CEO Roberto Cingolani could be replaced as soon as this week
AddTech falls as much as 5.9% after DNB Carnegie downgraded the stock to hold from buy, saying the Swedish industrial equipment maker could face weakening earnings growth momentum in 4Q
Ninety One tumbles as much as 14% as BofA Global Research downgrades its rating on the investment management firm to neutral from buy and cuts its target price to 260p from 280p because of lower expected market returns
Colruyt drops as much as 4.3%, biggest decliner in Belgium’s BEL Mid Index, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, saying it looks “fairly valued for modest growth”
Asian stocks advanced for a third-straight session even as the approach of President Donald Trump’s deadline for a peace deal with Iran kept traders on edge. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%, with technology shares including TSMC and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. Stocks climbed in Taiwan and Australia. Hong Kong’s market remained shut for holidays. Stocks also gained in India, while equities traded mixed in Japan, China and much of Southeast Asia. South Korea’s Kospi climbed after better-than-expected results from Samsung Electronics.

“While oil prices remain elevated for now, there is a strong view that the conflict will come to an end within the next one to two weeks, with crude prices returning to prior levels,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management. “Geopolitical risks themselves have not been resolved, but VIX in Japan, US, and Europe have peaked, suggesting that markets may have largely priced in these risks,” he added.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises by 0.1%, with Aussie dollar and sterling the outperformers and Swedish krona lagging after a surprise cooling in inflation.

In rates, treasury futures hold small losses after erasing gains amid rising oil prices, with yields across tenors slightly higher on the day. US 10-year yield is less than 1bp higher near 4.34%, and curve spreads are within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels. With European bond markets open for first time since Thursday, German and UK yields are 2bp-5bp cheaper across flatter curves. The US session includes the first of this week’s three Treasury coupon auctions, a 3-year note sale at 1pm. Treasury’s $58 billion 3-year new-issue auction, to be followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday, has WI yield near 3.895%, about 32bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 1.1bp, a notably poor result. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up about 2% from Monday’s multiyear high close, which followed Trump’s threat to obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if an agreement to end the war isn’t reached by 8pm Tuesday. Gold prices up, though paring back from highs near $4,700/oz.

US event calendar, includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), February durable goods orders (8:30am), March New York Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations (11am) and February consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:30am), Goolsbee (12:35pm, 1:45pm) and Jefferson (5:50pm)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.6%,
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7%,
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
DAX +0.5%
CAC 40 +1.0%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.34%
VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1211.85
euro +0.3% at $1.1571
WTI crude -0.4% at $111.97/barrel
Top Overnight News

Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his Tuesday-night deadline, paving the way for the U.S. to target Iranian bridges and power plants in a fresh escalation of the war. Twice in his second term, Trump set a deadline for a deal with Iran, said he would bomb the country if its leaders didn’t comply, then followed through with military operations. WSJ
Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure. AP
Iran on Monday delivered a 10 point proposal to end the war with the US and Israel. The plan was conveyed by Pakistan, which has been acting as a primary intermediary, but appeared unlikely to resolve major questions ahead of Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for a final deal by the deadline and RTRS reported this morning that a Senior Iranian Source said Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S. and the IRGC warned neighboring countries “restraint is over” and threatened to disrupt regional oil and gas supplies for years to come. NYT
A cross-party group of U.S. politicians have proposed ‌a law to impose further restrictions on exports of computer chipmaking equipment to China, affecting companies such as ASML and China’s top chipmakers. RTRS
Japan’s households reduced spending for a third straight month even after real wages turned positive. Outlays by households adjusted for inflation fell 1.8% in February from a year earlier, a faster decline compared with January’s 1% retreat. Real consumption remains weak, with economists citing growing consumer fatigue and inflation pressure as key challenges to domestic demand. BBG
Taiwan’s opposition leader is set to arrive in China on Tuesday on what she has called a “historic journey for peace” as she hopes for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the first such contact in a decade. FT
Anthropic’s revenue run rate has topped $30 billion, with more than 1,000 businesses spending over $1 million annually, a rate that has doubled since February. BBG
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both see inflation as a far bigger problem than employment, underscoring their support for tighter rather than looser monetary policy as the Iran war puts upward pressure on energy prices and the job market remains ‌stuck in low gear. RTRS
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square offered to buy Universal Music Group in a cash-and-stock deal at a 78% premium to Thursday’s closing price. Ackman cited UMG’s stock underperformance as a trigger for the bid. BBG
Republicans are reportedly weighing how broadly to structure a party-line bill to fund President Trump’s immigration enforcement, with some senators seeking multi-year DHS funding and others favoring a narrower ICE and CBP measure: Semafor 
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded cautiously following the positive lead from the US and with all focus remaining on geopolitics heading into US President Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for Iran to agree a deal as he threated to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges. ASX 200 rallied with tech and miners leading the upside and with almost all sectors in the green aside from industrials and consumer staples. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain its initial advances with the index pressured amid headwinds from higher oil prices and following softer Household Spending data. KOSPI surged at the open with strong gains in Samsung Electronics after its preliminary results topped forecasts and showed around an eight-fold jump in Q1 operating profit, but its stock is now down -1.98% as I type. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.43%) is continuing its upward trend after a +1.36% rise on Monday. In Asia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.43%) is significantly higher this morning, while the CSI (-0.29%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) are more subdued. In the US, S&P 500 mini -0.6%, Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7%, Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Top Asian News

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said won't comment on JGB yield levels and will refrain from commenting on levels in the markets, adds impact of Middle East and oil prices on the market is high.
Chinese President Xi called for new energy system as war on Iran rocks global economy and said China needs to accelerate planning and construction of a new energy system to ensure the country’s energy security.
South Korean FX Chief said are to deploy bold measures in the FX market, if needed.
South Korea policy chief Kim said the chip industry secures four month’s worth of helium and it is premature to discuss a second extra budget.
Morgan Stanley cuts its China 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% due to oil shock.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) re-open from the 4-day Easter closure with mild gains, as traders countdown to Trump’s Iran deadline at 20:00EDT/01:00BST. France’s CAC 40 outperforms its peers, while the FTSE 100 underperforms. Worth noting that European indices opened mixed, but then moved higher, without a clear driver. Some may point to reports via a Pakistani journalist which suggested that a breakthrough could be near, with a “framework of understanding” for ceasefire is close; whilst another suggested that a “framework of understanding” for a ceasefire is close. European sectors are broadly in the green. Media is the clear outperformer, driven by gains in UMG (+12.2%) after Pershing Square announced a EUR 9.4bln bid to take over the media company. Technology sits at the bottom of the pile. Despite the majority of the sector components in the green, ASML (-2.3%) is weighing on the sector. This comes following a group of US politicians proposing a law to impose further export restrictions on computer chipmaking equipment to China.
FX

FX markets saw a sharp risk-on move in the European morning, with no specific headline, but several outlets reporting optimism in US/Iran negotiations ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. DXY fell as much as 0.2% from 100.04 to a trough of 99.77, and high-beta FX was helped against the weaker buck, with Aussie the outperformer and Sterling also performing notably well. Elsewhere, EUR and GBP were unreactive to mixed European Final PMIs. To recap, the EZ wide composite and services were revised a touch higher while the UK’s were revised lower.
The session ahead sees US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), Atlanta Fed GDP and President Trump’s Iran deadline. Fed speak is expected from Fed’s Williams (13:30 BST), Goolsbee (17:35 BST) and Jefferson (22:50 BST). Full primer on the Newsquawk headline feed.
Central Banks

ECB’s Wunsch said he is open to an interest rate rise at the April meeting; a lasting crisis would warrant a series of rate rises.
ECB’s Radev said the ECB must be ready to act if inflation persists, sees a rising likelihood of adverse scenario but too early to say if April rate hike is needed. Inflation expectations at risk of rising too quickly.
Fixed Income

Initial bearish bias across the fixed income was facilitated by stronger energy prices, as the geopolitical environment remains exceptionally turbulent and as traders count down their clocks to President Trump’s 20:00EDT Iran deadline. Treasury yields saw a sizeable rise in Friday’s shortened session, with 2yr up +4.4bps and 10yr up +3.9bps following the strong March employment report. The release saw both headline (+178k vs +65k expected) and private (+186k vs. 78k expected) payrolls come in far above consensus expectations, with the unemployment rate also dropping from 4.44% to 4.29% (vs. 4.4% expected). To be sure, the rebound from strike- and weather-related weakness in February payrolls played a role, with the earlier timing of Easter also possibly bringing forward some payroll gains at the expense of April. Still, averaging through the Q1 employment reports, headline (+68k) and private (+79k) payrolls have been running above estimates of breakeven job gains and well above their subdued pace in late 2025, easing concerns on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate.
USTs held small losses after erasing gains amid rising oil prices, with yields across tenors slightly higher on the day. Treasury’s $58 billion 3-year new-issue auction, to be followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday, has WI yield near 3.895%, about 32bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 1.1bp, a notably poor result.
Bond yields rise 1bp, 10Y TSY yield at 4.34%, the USD is also higher while commodities are mixed with oil reversing earlier losses and rising over 2%.
Commodities

Crude futures gained at the start of the APAC session and held onto gains as European traders stepped in as US President Trump’s 20:00EDT deadline approaches. If Iran does not agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he said the US will decimate Iran’s bridges and power plants if no accord is reached. However, Trump did also state that he thinks talks are going well and that Iran has “an active and willing participant on the other side.” Further reporting throughout the European morning indicates that a breakthrough could be near, with Pakistani reporter Mallick suggesting that the interlocutors are ‘closer than ever for an agreement’ to get a “framework of understanding for ceasefire” between the US and Iran.
WTI and Brent topped at USD 116.56/bbl and USD 111.80/bbl, respectively, before sinking – a move which lacked a clear driver. However, the move appeared to follow the aforementioned reports from the Pakistani reporter. At the time of writing, WTI May’26 has returned below USD 113/bbl while Brent Jun’26 oscillates on either side of USD 110/bbl.
Spot gold trades relatively contained within a USD 4617-4691/oz range. Upticks have picked up pace in recent trade as the USD softens amid downside in energy prices. However, the 20-SMA at USD 4,732/oz and last week’s high of USD 4,800/oz remain as near-term resistance levels. To be sure, China added gold to its reserves for a 17th consecutive month, highlighting that demand for the yellow metal is still high. However, UBS lowered its end-June forecast to USD 5,200/oz, amid softer investor demand amid elevated volatility.
3M LME copper is rangebound, oscillating in a USD 12.37k-12.46k/t range. This comes as participants remain cautious as the Trump deadline looms.
Hungary to agree to buy oil from US at Orban-Vance meeting, Bloomberg reported. Hungary’s Mol will agree to purchase 500,000 tons for approximately USD 500mln.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said the oil shipments via CPC pipeline is stable, LSEG reported.
IRGC’s public relations channel reported of “explosion and extensive damage to the Al-Jubeil industrial area”.
Attacks reportedly hit Saudi Arabia’s petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, AFP reported citing sources.
Iran launches new batch of missiles towards southern Israel.
Israeli military said it completed airstrike wave aiming to damage Iranian terror regime infrastructure in Tehran and additional areas across Iran.
US House Democrat Ansari intends to introduce articles of impeachment against Secretary of War Hegseth, cites Iran war and war crimes as grounds for Hegseth impeachment, according to NBC.
Russian Defence Ministry reported that air defence forces have downed 45 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight.
China’s central bank injected liquidity into the financial system via seven-day reverse repurchase operations, adding CNY 200 billion, Bloomberg reported.
US event calendar