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What happened: Russian oil supply strains are intensifying, with energy-hungry importers like Japan securing cargoes from sanctioned suppliers. In Russia, fuel shortages are causing rationing and public unrest, as Ukrainian drone strikes target energy infrastructure. Putin acknowledged the shortages, while regional governors denied a crisis. In Crimea, fuel sales have been halted due to Ukrainian attacks. Meanwhile, France intercepted a suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' oil tanker.

Market impact: The energy sector is significantly affected. Russian oil production and exports are likely to decline, tightening global supply and potentially boosting prices. European refiners may face further disruptions, as they rely on Russian crude. Asian buyers, however, are benefiting from discounted Russian oil. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries could also impact Russian oil product exports, affecting regional markets.

What to watch next: The next Ukrainian drone strike campaign, scheduled for early December, will indicate the severity of Russian fuel shortages. Russia's response to these attacks, and potential countermeasures, will also shape the narrative. Additionally, watch for any changes in European Union sanctions on Russian oil, due for review in December.