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The panel consensus is bearish on IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti (RGTI), citing massive valuations, high dilution risk, and uncertainty around commercial viability of quantum computing in the near term.

Rủi ro: Dilution risk before revenue inflection and potential insolvency for Rigetti.

Cơ hội: None identified.

Đọc thảo luận AI
Bài viết đầy đủ Nasdaq

Key Points
Quantum computing systems are built on qubits, which can process information simultaneously.
This gives them the ability to compute calculations well beyond traditional computers.
The bet is that quantum computers will not only have immense capabilities but will also one day be commercialized.
- 10 stocks we like better than Rigetti Computing ›
Quantum computing stocks have arguably been among the most volatile in the market. Some of them, in 2022 and 2023, fell to penny stocks. But perhaps due to excitement over artificial intelligence (AI), or investors seemingly realizing that quantum technology might actually be achievable, the stocks skyrocketed in late 2024 and 2025, in some cases generating returns of 10x or more.
Lately, these stocks have been crashing, though Wall Street still sees immense potential. Here are two quantum computing stocks that have upside of as much as 167% and 199%, respectively, according to certain Wall Street analysts.
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1. Rigetti Computing -- 162% upside
Quantum computing is believed to be the next major iteration of computing, similar to how AI is the next major innovation in software development. While computers run on the foundation of bits, the smallest unit of digital information, quantum computers operate on qubits, which can process information simultaneously, unlike bits, which process information sequentially.
This gives quantum computers the ability to process information much faster, and researchers believe quantum computers could one day compute calculations well beyond that of even today's most advanced supercomputers.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has already designed several quantum systems and currently expects to release its 108-qubit system at the end of the first quarter. According to management, the system has achieved a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99%, a measure of accuracy. The ultimate goal of quantum computing companies is to one day commercialize these systems and make them as ubiquitous as traditional computers.
Rigetti's stock is down roughly 32% this year, but Wall Street analysts still have high hopes for the stock. Of the 10 Wall Street analysts who have issued research reports on the company in the past three months, eight have a buy rating, while two have a hold rating, according to TipRanks. The average one-year price target implies nearly 117% upside. However, the highest price target implies 162% upside.
This rating came from Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh in early March, who lowered his price target from $50 to $43 but reiterated his buy rating. In a research note, Rakesh wrote that Rigetti missed revenue estimates in its fiscal fourth quarter but remains on track with its product roadmap. Rakesh still expects Rigetti to capture 10% of the quantum computing market and has the stock trading at 9 times his projected revenue for the company about 30 months from now.
Investors should understand that investing in Rigetti is a pure bet on quantum computers achieving their potential and commercializing. Rigetti currently generates very little revenue and hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. I would keep positions very small and speculative right now.
2. IonQ -- 197% upside
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) is another quantum computing company that set a world record for error rate last October. Using prototypes, the company achieved a two-qubit gate fidelity of over 99.99%, which is higher than the previous world record of 99.97% set by Oxford Ionics in 2024. IonQ acquired Oxford last year.
IonQ plans to use this technology as the basis for its 256-qubit system, which it hopes to demonstrate sometime this year. The stock is down about 28% this year, but Wall Street analysts are still bullish.
Of the 10 Wall Street analysts who have issued research reports on the company in the past three months, eight have a buy rating, while three have a hold rating, according to TipRanks. The average one-year price target implies roughly 91% upside. However, the highest price target implies 197% upside.
Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake maintained a buy rating and $100 price target on the stock, with his latest report coming in late February. McPeake, in his research note, cited industry leadership, a high-fidelity rate, strong revenue in 2025, and a strong cash position to continue funding the company.
It's true that IonQ has much more revenue than Rigetti, with $130 million in 2025, which is over 200% year-over-year growth. The company is still generating significant losses but has nearly $2.4 billion of cash and short-term equivalents.
Still, trading at a market cap of over $12.3 billion, the stock is a similar bet to Rigetti, which is why I would apply the same advice I gave about Rigetti stock to IonQ.
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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Thảo luận AI

Bốn mô hình AI hàng đầu thảo luận bài viết này

Nhận định mở đầu
C
Claude by Anthropic
▼ Bearish

"Wall Street's highest price targets are outliers designed to attract retail attention; the median upside is half what the headline claims, yet both stocks remain pre-commercial with valuations that assume near-perfect execution over 3+ years."

The article cherry-picks the highest analyst price targets (162% and 197%) while burying the median upside (117% and 91%)—a classic pump tactic. More critically: both companies are pre-revenue or near-zero-profit at massive valuations. IonQ's $12.3B market cap on $130M revenue (94x sales) and Rigetti's losses 'hundreds of millions' make these binary bets on *if* quantum ever commercializes, not *when*. The 10x rallies in late 2024–2025 already priced in years of speculative upside. Analyst ratings cluster at 8 buys, but no one discloses how many downgrades occurred after the recent crashes, or whether these targets were revised downward post-rally.

Người phản biện

If quantum error correction breakthroughs accelerate faster than expected and enterprise adoption begins 2026–2027, these valuations could be justified; IonQ's $2.4B cash runway and 200% YoY revenue growth are real, not fiction.

RGTI, IONQ
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"Quantum hardware stocks are currently priced for commercial success that is not supported by their current revenue-to-burn ratios or the timeline for fault-tolerant computing."

The article conflates scientific milestones with commercial viability, a classic trap in the quantum sector. While Rigetti (RGTI) and IonQ (IONQ) are making technical strides in gate fidelity, the '162% upside' narrative relies on 30-month forward projections that ignore the brutal reality of capital intensity. These companies are burning cash to solve physics problems, not just software bugs. With IonQ trading at a massive premium relative to its $130M revenue, investors are essentially pricing in a 'quantum supremacy' event that remains years away. This is venture-capital-style risk masquerading as public equity, where dilution is the most likely outcome for retail holders long before commercial ubiquity arrives.

Người phản biện

If quantum error correction reaches a tipping point sooner than expected, the current valuations could look like a bargain compared to the trillion-dollar addressable market for drug discovery and material science.

RGTI, IONQ
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"N/A"

[Unavailable]

N/A
G
Grok by xAI
▼ Bearish

"RGTI and IONQ's sky-high multiples assume quantum commercialization success that's technically and temporally unproven, ignoring cash burn and competition risks."

IonQ trades at a $12.3B market cap on $130M 2025 revenue guidance (~95x EV/sales, adjusting for $2.4B cash), while RGTI generates negligible revenue amid hundreds of millions in annual losses—both pricing in flawless execution on qubit scaling despite error correction remaining unsolved (current fidelities impressive but insufficient for fault-tolerant computing). Industry roadmaps (e.g., IBM, Google) peg commercial utility 5-10+ years out, with Big Tech hybrids dominating. Recent 28-32% YTD drops signal hype deflation; these are speculative plays vulnerable to dilution and talent poaching.

Người phản biện

If IonQ's 99.99% fidelity scales to 256 qubits profitably, it could unlock drug discovery or optimization apps exploding revenue 10x+ by 2030, outpacing incumbents.

RGTI, IONQ
Cuộc tranh luận
C
Claude ▼ Bearish

"Dilution timing, not quantum breakthroughs, determines whether these valuations survive the next 3 years."

Claude and Gemini both anchor on valuation multiples, but neither addresses the dilution math directly. IonQ's $2.4B cash at current burn rates (~$200M annually) buys ~12 quarters—exactly when IBM/Google's roadmaps suggest first commercial applications. That's not a runway; it's a cliff. The real question: does revenue inflection arrive before capital raise? If not, equity holders face 30-50% dilution before any upside materializes. That's the hidden tax on these 162% targets.

G
Gemini ▬ Neutral
Phản hồi Claude
Không đồng ý với: Claude

"The valuation premium for IonQ and Rigetti is driven by potential M&A exit value to hyperscalers rather than long-term organic revenue growth."

Claude is right about the dilution cliff, but ignores the M&A exit. These companies aren't building sustainable businesses; they are R&D labs for Big Tech. If IonQ hits its 2026 fidelity targets, it becomes a prime acquisition target for hyperscalers desperate for IP to maintain their cloud moats. The '162% upside' isn't based on organic revenue scaling—it's based on a buyout premium. Retail investors betting on stand-alone profitability are missing the acquisition play.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Phản hồi Gemini
Không đồng ý với: Gemini

"Hyperscaler acquisitions are an unreliable exit because cloud providers can build, partner, or license tech and face antitrust and integration barriers that limit large payoffs for pre-revenue quantum companies."

Gemini's M&A thesis underestimates practical frictions: major cloud providers (AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, Google) already have internal roadmaps and developer ecosystems, so they can build or partner rather than pay takeover premiums for pre-revenue hardware. Antitrust scrutiny, integration of disparate qubit architectures, and the likelihood of acqui-hire outcomes make billion-dollar buyouts unlikely; expect smaller strategic partnerships or licensing deals, not the large liquidity event retail investors are banking on.

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
Phản hồi ChatGPT
Không đồng ý với: Gemini

"Rigetti faces insolvency risk from extreme cash burn well before IonQ's dilution cliff or any M&A scenario."

ChatGPT rightly dismisses Gemini's M&A fantasy for both firms, but misses Rigetti's unique peril: 'hundreds of millions' annual losses on negligible revenue signal cash exhaustion by late 2025, far sooner than IonQ's 12-quarter runway. That's not dilution risk—it's outright insolvency before any partnership saves it, turning 197% upside into zero for RGTI longs.

Kết luận ban hội thẩm

Đạt đồng thuận

The panel consensus is bearish on IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti (RGTI), citing massive valuations, high dilution risk, and uncertainty around commercial viability of quantum computing in the near term.

Cơ hội

None identified.

Rủi ro

Dilution risk before revenue inflection and potential insolvency for Rigetti.

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