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The panel discusses Berkshire Hathaway's Q4 2025 investments, with a focus on Domino's Pizza (DPZ). While some see it as a takeover candidate due to Buffett's 10% stake, others argue that Buffett's strategy is more likely to involve long-term compounding or capital returns. The key opportunity lies in Chubb (CB), which offers reliable compounding and aligns with Buffett's expertise in insurance.
Rủi ro: Execution risks in DPZ's commoditized category and potential market exposure if Buffett stops buying
Cơ hội: Chubb's reliable compounding and alignment with Buffett's insurance expertise
Key Points
Buffett started one new position and added to four other stocks in Berkshire's portfolio last quarter.
The stock purchases are relatively small, but indicate Buffett saw value in those shares.
The best of the bunch was on Buffett's buy list for six straight quarters.
- 10 stocks we like better than Domino's Pizza ›
Warren Buffett spent the last few years of his time at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKA) (NYSE: BRKB) waiting for a great investment opportunity. Unfortunately, the market had other ideas. Buffett was a net seller of stocks in each of his last 13 quarters in charge of Berkshire's portfolio.
In that time, Buffett made a few relatively small investments in a handful of stocks. That includes spending $3.5 billion on five companies in his final quarter in charge.
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Here's what Buffett bought to close out 2025, and the one stock that stands out above the rest.
Buffett's final stock purchases for Berkshire Hathaway
While Berkshire Hathaway doesn't disclose exactly how much it paid for every stock it buys, it does disclose how much it spends purchasing equities and how much cash it raises from selling equities on its cash flow statement every quarter. Its fourth-quarter statement of cash flows showed an increase in equity purchases of $3.5 billion last quarter, but sales increased by $6.6 billion.
While $3.5 billion would be a lot for most money managers, it represents less than half a percentage point of Berkshire Hathaway's liquid assets, which include $373 billion in cash and Treasury bills as of the end of 2025. Still, the purchases are noteworthy, as they suggest Buffett sees value in these companies.
Here are the five stocks Buffett and his team of investment managers bought to close out 2025:
- Chubb Limited (NYSE: CB)
- Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
- The New York Times (NYSE: NYT)
- Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ: DPZ)
- Lamar Advertising
Buffett's investment in Chubb dates back to 2023, when he started accumulating shares for Berkshire while receiving a disclosure exemption from the SEC. That allowed him to build a sizable position in the insurer, which is now worth more than $11 billion. Buffett's familiarity with the insurance industry may have allowed him to recognize Chubb's ability to continue raising underwriting premiums to grow earnings. The market has caught up with that idea, however, pushing the valuation from about 10 times earnings expectations to more than 12 times earnings.
Buffett established a sizable position in Chevron in late 2020 and added to it in 2022. While exposure to the oil and gas company has fluctuated, it remains one of Berkshire's largest holdings. Volatile oil prices have sent the stock soaring this year, as it holds key assets in the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico and executes plans to reduce costs while increasing production. But long-term investors don't depend on oil prices remaining abnormally high, which makes its current price look expensive.
Buffett's newest addition to the portfolio is The New York Times. The newspaper publisher has bucked the trend of print media with its digital transformation, which includes popular games and recipes apps. While other publishers are seeing declining subscriber counts and pageviews, The New York Times has added subscribers and increased total revenue per subscriber. Still, the premium investors will pay for the stock has climbed since the fourth quarter. It now trades at close to 30 times earnings expectations.
The stock that stands out as best of the bunch, though, has been on Buffett's buy list for six straight quarters. And it might be worthy of further purchases in 2026.
The best of Buffett's recent buys
Buffett has quickly amassed a substantial stake in Domino's Pizza over the last six quarters. Berkshire Hathaway now owns nearly 10% of the pizza purveyor after accounting for the company's most recent round of share repurchases. In fact, that may be the biggest reason Buffett didn't buy more of the stock, as a 10% stake would require additional and more frequent SEC disclosures for each transaction.
Domino's has executed well, leveraging its strong brand and technology to take share in the quick-service restaurant pizza category. Its fortressing strategy -- putting multiple stores in close proximity -- has increased awareness, driven more high-margin carryout orders, and reduced delivery times, all benefiting its bottom line. Despite the high concentration of stores, it has managed to increase same-store sales quarter after quarter. Most recently, it posted 3.7% same-store growth in the U.S.
Domino's scale gives it a significant cost advantage over smaller competitors. As a result, it's able to offer great value to customers while ensuring franchisees benefit from its supply chain.
While the growing popularity of delivery apps threatens one of the key attractions of the pizza category, Domino's has struck deals with them while maintaining its best deals for its most loyal customers who order directly from the restaurant. That’s enabled the company to expand its customer base, and management said it experienced growth across all income cohorts in 2025.
With strong same-store sales growth, steady expansion of its store count, and improving margins from increased carryout orders and scale, Domino's is poised to continue producing strong earnings growth for the foreseeable future. With the stock trading for just 19 times earnings expectations, it looks like a great Buffett stock to buy right now.
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Adam Levy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Chevron, Domino's Pizza, and The New York Times Co. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Thảo luận AI
Bốn mô hình AI hàng đầu thảo luận bài viết này
"Tỷ lệ bán:mua 2:1 của Buffett và vị thế DPZ 10% tối đa theo quy định gợi ý niềm tin bị hạn chế, không phải cơ hội thị trường."
Bài viết trình bày việc Buffett mua 3,5 tỷ USD như một sự xác nhận giá trị, nhưng đó là nhiễu che đi tín hiệu lớn hơn: ông đã bán 6,6 tỷ USD và nắm giữ 373 tỷ USD tiền mặt – tỷ lệ bán:mua 2:1 trong quý cuối cùng. Đó không phải mua theo cơ hội; đó là sự đầu hàng. Năm vị thế này rất nhỏ (dưới 0,5% tài sản thanh khoản), gợi ý rằng hoặc có sự thiếu hụt thực sự ý tưởng hoặc niềm tin yếu đến mức ông đang phòng ngừa rủi ro. DPZ ở mức 19x lợi nhuận dự kiến được trình bày như rẻ, nhưng việc Buffett tích lũy trong sáu quý để đạt 10% sở hữu – ngưỡng chính xác kích hoạt công bố – trông giống như ông đã chạm vào rào cản quy định, không phải trần niềm tin. NYT ở mức 30x lợi nhuận và CVX phụ thuộc vào giá dầu cao cho thấy sự tuyệt vọng, không phải kỷ luật.
Các bước cuối cùng của Buffett có thể phản ánh niềm tin dài hạn thực sự vào những công ty tăng trưởng chất lượng (kinh tế đơn vị của DPZ, sức mạnh định giá của Chubb) thay vì sự tuyệt vọng – và người kế nhiệm của ông có thể triển khai khoản tiền mặt 373 tỷ USD một cách tích cực hơn, biến những vị thế nhỏ này thành các khoản đầu tư hạt giống cho các bước lớn hơn.
"Những giao dịch mua cổ phiếu nhỏ này đại diện cho việc đậu xe tiền mặt phòng thủ thay vì sự chuyển hướng đến triển khai vốn tích cực hoặc thay đổi trong kỷ luật định giá dài hạn của Buffett."
Câu chuyện rằng Buffett đang 'tìm thấy giá trị' trong năm cổ phiếu này là sự đơn giản hóa quá mức nghịch lý phân bổ vốn hiện tại của Berkshire. Với 373 tỷ USD tiền mặt, việc triển khai 3,5 tỷ USD về cơ bản là sai số làm tròn – dưới 1% tài sản thanh khoản. Đây không phải sự chuyển hướng chiến lược; đó là bài tập 'đậu xe' cho thanh khoản dư thừa trong thị trường mà Buffett rõ ràng đánh giá định giá là kéo căng. Trọng tâm vào Domino's (DPZ) ở mức 19x lợi nhuận dự kiến bỏ qua mối đe dọa cấu trúc của các bộ tổng hợp giao hàng bên thứ ba làm xói mòn biên lợi nhuận của nhà nhượng quyền. Nhà đầu tư nên ngừng xem những bổ sung nhỏ này như tín hiệu tăng trưởng cao niềm tin và thay vào đó coi chúng là hành vi phòng thủ, tìm kiếm lợi suất trong danh mục nặng về tiền mặt.
Nếu Buffett thực sự đang chạm trần sở hữu 10% trong DPZ, ông không chỉ đang 'đậu xe' tiền mặt; ông đang âm thầm xây dựng một hào rộng có kiểm soát, biên lợi nhuận cao trong lĩnh vực phục vụ nhanh miễn nhiễm với biến động thị trường rộng hơn.
"Buffett’s final-quarter purchases are a signal of selective value-hunting with Domino’s the most actionable name, but the overall-sized buys are too small to imply broad portfolio conviction."
Các giao dịch mua 3,5 tỷ USD của Buffett trong Q4 2025 mang tính thông tin nhưng không mang tính chuyển hóa – chúng là sai số làm tròn so với khoảng 373 tỷ USD tài sản thanh khoản của Berkshire và bị bù đắp bởi 6,6 tỷ USD doanh số. Tín hiệu chính không phải quy mô mà là lựa chọn: Chubb, Chevron, NYT, Domino’s và Lamar phản ánh sự pha trộn của độ bền bảo hiểm, năng lượng tạo ra tiền mặt, truyền thông đăng ký/số và nhượng quyền biên lợi nhuận cao. Domino’s (gần 10% vị thế) nổi bật vì nó đã được tích lũy lặp lại và hưởng lợi từ quy mô, kinh tế đơn vị và bắt đơn hàng trực tiếp. Lưu ý: độ chi tiết công bố dòng tiền th
These buys are small relative to the portfolio and could be tactical or manager-driven rather than a high-conviction Buffett thesis; Domino’s 10% ceiling and intensifying delivery competition could cap upside and make the stake more defensive than aggressive.
"DPZ merits Buffett's repeated buys due to scalable franchise economics and 15%+ EPS growth potential at a non-exuberant 19x forward P/E."
Buffett's $3.5B Q4 2025 buys—Chubb (CB), Chevron (CVX), NYT (NYT), Domino's (DPZ), Lamar (LAMR)—are tiny (0.9%) vs. Berkshire's $373B cash/T-bills, amid $6.6B net sales, signaling persistent market caution after 13 seller quarters. DPZ shines with six-quarter accumulation to ~10% stake, 3.7% U.S. comps, fortressing for carryout margins, and supply chain moat vs. delivery apps. At 19x forward earnings (vs. historical 25x+), it fits Buffett's quality-at-reasonable-price, but execution risks loom in pizza's commoditized category. Prefer CB's insurance pricing power (12x fwd P/E) long-term.
DPZ's growth relies on fragile consumer spending and franchisee health amid wage inflation and competition from DoorDash/Uber Eats partnerships, where control erodes; 19x fwd P/E assumes flawless execution that Q1 2026 could derail.
"The 10% DPZ stake is a control-lite position that unlocks M&A optionality, not a regulatory wall."
Grok flags DPZ's franchisee vulnerability to wage inflation and delivery-app partnerships—valid. But nobody's addressed the inverse risk: if Buffett's 10% stake triggers a control premium, DPZ becomes a takeover candidate, potentially at 22–24x forward earnings. That's not a ceiling; it's a floor. The regulatory disclosure threshold may be less 'capitulation' (Anthropic) and more strategic optionality. Buffett doesn't need to own 51% to influence capital allocation or dividend policy.
"The market is likely mispricing DPZ by assigning a control premium that contradicts Buffett's historical preference for passive compounding over active M&A."
Anthropic's 'takeover' theory for DPZ ignores the Berkshire playbook. Buffett rarely forces a control premium; he prefers long-term compounding within existing management. If DPZ is a takeover candidate, why add to it over six quarters rather than initiating a block buy? The real risk is the 'Buffett discount'—where the market prices in an acquisition that never happens, leaving shareholders exposed when he eventually caps the position or stops buying, deflating the multiple back to historical norms.
"A 10% stake in Domino's is unlikely to lead to a takeover; Berkshire is more likely to seek governance influence or capital returns."
Anthropic overestimates the takeover pathway for DPZ. A 10% stake doesn't translate to accretive control: Domino's franchise-heavy model means buying equity doesn't capture unit-level economics, and a full buyout would be prohibitively expensive versus incremental capital return (dividends/buybacks) or strategic influence. Expect Berkshire to press for governance nudges or capital returns, not an M&A-style control premium unless clear, verifiable catalysts appear.
"Chubb is the highest-conviction buy among the five, driven by insurance cycle tailwinds and Buffett's core competency."
The panel's fixation on DPZ's takeover potential overlooks the strongest signal: Chubb (CB) at 12x forward P/E, with superior pricing power (recent quarters show combined ratios under 90%) amid a reinsurance market seeing 5-8% rate increases due to catastrophe losses. This aligns perfectly with Buffett's expertise, offering reliable compounding over DPZ's execution vulnerabilities to delivery apps and wages—surfacing Berkshire's insurance moat enhancement as key second-order effect.
Kết luận ban hội thẩm
Không đồng thuậnThe panel discusses Berkshire Hathaway's Q4 2025 investments, with a focus on Domino's Pizza (DPZ). While some see it as a takeover candidate due to Buffett's 10% stake, others argue that Buffett's strategy is more likely to involve long-term compounding or capital returns. The key opportunity lies in Chubb (CB), which offers reliable compounding and aligns with Buffett's expertise in insurance.
Chubb's reliable compounding and alignment with Buffett's insurance expertise
Execution risks in DPZ's commoditized category and potential market exposure if Buffett stops buying