Von Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
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The panel consensus is that the EU's $23B crypto tax forecast is overly optimistic due to political fragmentation, behavioral shifts towards DeFi and self-custody, and data availability issues. The plan may result in piecemeal national taxes and compliance chaos for CASPs.
Risiko: Political fragmentation and users' migration to DeFi and self-custody platforms.
Chance: None identified.
Diese Analyse wird vom StockScreener-Pipeline generiert — vier führende LLM (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) erhalten identische Prompts mit integrierten Anti-Halluzinations-Schutzvorrichtungen. Methodik lesen →
Patrick Hansen, der EU-Strategie- und Politikchef von Circle, sagt, dass die Prognosen des Blocks für die Krypto-Steuereinnahmen möglicherweise nicht ausreichen. Die Europäische Kommission hat bis zu $23 Milliarden für den 2028 bis 2034 EU-Budgetzyklus modelliert.
Hansen argumentierte, dass eine transaktionsbasierte Krypto-Steuer die Nutzer zu DeFi-Protokollen lenken würde. Selbstverwaltete Wallets und nicht-EU-Venues würden das Volumen zentraler Börsen untergraben, das Brüssel erwartet zu erfassen.
Der entleckte Dienstleistungsbericht der Kommission skizziert zwei Modelle für Krypto-Steuern, die Mitgliedstaaten in Betracht ziehen können:
- Eine 0,1%-ige Abgabe auf den Wert von Krypto-Transaktionen könnte jährlich $3,5 Milliarden bis $4,7 Milliarden erzeugen.
Krypto-Asset-Service-Anbieter (CASPs) würden als Sammel- und Berichterstattungsstellen fungieren.
- Eine separate Kapitalertragssteuer auf realisierte Krypto-Gewinne würde geschätzt $1,2 Milliarden bis $2,8 Milliarden jährlich einbringen.
Zusammen könnten die beiden Optionen bis zu $23 Milliarden über den siebenjährigen EU-Budgetzeitraum erzeugen. Offizielle erkennen an, dass die Zahlen von der Marktschwankung abhängen.
Der Bericht signalisiert, dass Stablecoins, die als Zahlungsmittel verwendet werden, wahrscheinlich außerhalb der Transaktionsabgabe fallen.
Die Kapitalertragssteuer würde generell nicht auf Dollar-pegten Tokens anwenden, da ihre Preisbewegungen minimal sind.
Hansen wies auf drei strukturelle Schwächen im Modell hin:
- Zuverlässige Daten aus DAC8, dem EU-Rahmenwerk für Krypto-Berichterstattung, werden erst ab 2027 verfügbar sein. Frühprognosen basieren auf unvollständigen Eingaben.
- Der Vorschlag erfordert zudem eine einstimmige Zustimmung des Rates und eine harmonisierte EU-Steuerbasis.
Frankreich hat sich am stärksten für neue EU-Einnahmequellen eingesetzt. Die Compliance-Belastungen für Krypto-Steuern und der Widerstand von Börsenstarken Wirtschaften wie Malta könnten die Opposition verstärken.
- Das größte Verhaltensrisiko liegt laut Hansen.
Nutzer, die einer Steuer auf zentralen Börsen gegenüberstehen, können ihre Aktivitäten zu selbstverwalteten Wallet-Optionen, DeFi-Protokollen oder nicht-EU-Plattformen verlagern. Jede Transaktionssteuer hängt von diesem Volumen ab.
"Jede transaktionsbasierte Krypto-Steuer würde wahrscheinlich eine Migration zu nicht-steuerbaren Kanälen...und/oder nicht-steuerbaren Vermögenswerten...In der Praxis würde das die Ertragspotenziale erheblich reduzieren, auf denen diese Prognosen basieren," sagte er."
Zypern, das die rotierende Ratspräsidentschaft innehat, plant, einen überarbeiteten Budgetvorschlag um den 10. Juni zu teilen.
Das Ergebnis wird signalisieren, ob Krypto weiterhin auf dem Tisch bleibt und wie es mit der MiCA-Überprüfungsberatung interagiert.
Lesen Sie den Originalartikel $23 Milliarden EU Krypto-Steuer-Prognose zieht Abweh von Circle-Politikchef von Lockridge Okoth bei beincrypto.com
Vier führende AI-Modelle diskutieren diesen Artikel
"The $23B forecast fails because political fragmentation will prevent harmonized EU-wide implementation, not primarily because users flee to DeFi."
The $23B EU crypto tax forecast is almost certainly overstated, but not for the reasons Hansen emphasizes. Yes, behavioral leakage to DeFi and self-custody will erode collections — that's real. But the article glosses over the actual binding constraint: unanimous Council approval is a political fantasy. France wants revenue; Malta, Cyprus, and crypto-friendly member states will block harmonization. The 2027 DAC8 data gap is a red herring — incomplete data won't stop Brussels from trying, but political fragmentation will. Real risk: piecemeal national taxes emerge instead, creating compliance chaos for CASPs like Circle (CRCL) without generating the projected revenue. The stablecoin carve-out also signals Brussels doesn't fully understand crypto's tax surface.
If MiCA enforcement tightens and CASPs become de facto tax collectors anyway, even a 0.1% levy on reported volumes could stick closer to projections than Hansen admits — regulatory compliance often trumps user migration in practice.
"Behavioral shifts to untaxed channels will likely cut the EU's crypto tax haul well below the $23B headline projection."
The EU's dual crypto tax model (0.1% transaction levy plus capital gains) rests on shaky volume assumptions that Hansen correctly flags, especially with DAC8 data unavailable until 2027 and unanimous Council approval required. Migration to DeFi, self-custody, and non-EU venues could shrink the taxable base faster than modeled, particularly for non-stablecoin flows. This risks undercutting projected $23B revenue while accelerating decentralization ahead of the MiCA review. France's push and Malta's likely resistance add political friction that the Commission paper downplays. Stablecoin exemptions further narrow the capture net.
Even with behavioral leakage, coordinated DAC8 reporting plus existing exchange infrastructure could still deliver 60-70% of the modeled revenue if the Council harmonizes rules by 2028.
"The EU's tax projections ignore the high elasticity of crypto-asset demand, which will drive users toward non-taxed DeFi protocols and offshore venues, rendering the revenue model structurally flawed."
The EU’s $23 billion revenue forecast is a classic case of static modeling failing to account for dynamic behavioral shifts. By targeting centralized exchanges (CASPs), the Commission is essentially incentivizing the 'DeFi-ization' of the European market. A 0.1% transaction levy is high enough to trigger massive capital flight toward self-custody and non-EU liquidity pools, likely resulting in a revenue shortfall of 50% or more versus projections. Furthermore, the reliance on DAC8 data by 2027 is optimistic; the administrative friction of implementation will likely lead to regulatory arbitrage, where capital flows to jurisdictions like Switzerland or the UAE, leaving the EU with a hollowed-out tax base and diminished market competitiveness.
If the EU successfully mandates that all on-ramps and off-ramps—including those serving DeFi—must report via MiCA-compliant protocols, the 'exit' to self-custody becomes a tax-evasion event rather than a viable business strategy, potentially forcing compliance.
"The forecast is likely overstated because behavioral migration to DeFi/non-EU channels and data-enforcement hurdles will depress realized tax receipts far below the headline."
The headline $23B forecast rests on three fragile pillars: a uniform EU tax base, DAC8 data quality from 2027, and a transaction levy that doesn't push users offshore en masse. In practice, a 0.1% transaction tax on on-chain activity may trigger mass movement to DeFi and non-EU venues, while stablecoins and dollar-pegged tokens escape capital gains rules. Enforcement fabric is untested across member states, and unanimity risk means the plan may stall or be watered down, especially with Malta's opposition. If any of these frictions materialize, the realized haul could be far below the headline.
That said, if the EU somehow delivers a truly harmonized tax base and DAC8 data improves quickly, receipts could surprise to the upside, as on-chain activity within compliant venues remains hard to evade.
"On-ramp/off-ramp reporting via MiCA could be more binding than on-chain tax avoidance, but only if the EU treats fiat gateways as the actual tax surface."
Everyone's modeling behavioral leakage as binary—users flee or comply. But Gemini's MiCA on-ramp/off-ramp enforcement point is underexplored. If the EU mandates reporting at fiat boundaries (not on-chain), self-custody becomes invisible only if you never convert back to euros. That's a massive friction that could push compliance higher than the 60-70% Grok estimates. The real question: does Brussels have the political will to weaponize on-ramps as tax collection points? That's not addressed.
"P2P and offshore channels allow bypassing EU on-ramps, undermining higher compliance expectations."
Claude's point on fiat boundary reporting overlooks P2P and non-fiat on-ramps that avoid euro conversion altogether. Users can settle in USDT or BTC via decentralized protocols or Asian venues, rendering self-custody frictionless for long-term holdings. This dynamic erodes the compliance boost more than MiCA can prevent, as enforcement stops at EU borders. Revenue projections ignore these jurisdictional gaps that accelerate capital flight beyond 2027.
"Institutional compliance requirements make institutional capital more sensitive to regulatory uncertainty than retail P2P flight."
Grok, your focus on P2P and non-fiat on-ramps ignores the institutional reality: capital markets don't run on P2P. While retail might skirt taxes, the $23B target relies on high-volume institutional flows that require regulated, fiat-integrated venues. These entities cannot operate in the shadows of USDT-based P2P markets without severe AML/KYC violations. The real risk isn't retail flight; it's the institutional exodus from the EU to jurisdictions with clearer, stable tax frameworks, not just tax avoidance.
"Without rapid DAC8 rollout and uniform enforcement, Grok's 60-70% uplift to the $23B target is unlikely; receipts will stay well below optimistic midpoints due to enforcement heterogeneity and leakage to non-EU venues."
Grok's 60-70% uplift on a harmonized 2028 baseline assumes near-perfect DAC8 data and universal on-ramp reporting. I’d flag two gaps: (1) enforcement bandwidth varies wildly across 27 states, and (2) non-EU venues + P2P DeFi will siphon flows even with rules in place. Bottom line: the revenue path is a function of political will and data flow speed; without rapid DAC8 rollout, receipts stay well below the optimistic midpoints.
The panel consensus is that the EU's $23B crypto tax forecast is overly optimistic due to political fragmentation, behavioral shifts towards DeFi and self-custody, and data availability issues. The plan may result in piecemeal national taxes and compliance chaos for CASPs.
None identified.
Political fragmentation and users' migration to DeFi and self-custody platforms.