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The White House CEA report quantifies stablecoin risks as minimal, paving the way for regulatory clarity and potentially boosting stablecoin adoption, but panelists warn about potential deposit flight velocity issues and collateral squeeze risks during tightening cycles or extreme market conditions.
Risiko: Deposit flight velocity and collateral squeeze during tightening cycles or extreme market conditions
Chance: Regulatory clarity and potential boost in stablecoin adoption
Vollständiger Artikel
ZeroHedge
Stablecoin-Erträge schaden Banken nicht, sagen Wirtschaftsberater des Weißen Hauses
Verfasst von Amin Haqshanas über CoinTelegraph.com,
Ein Bericht des Weißen Hauses ergab, dass ein Verbot von Erträgen auf Stablecoins nur geringfügige Auswirkungen auf die Kreditvergabe von Banken hätte und gleichzeitig deutliche wirtschaftliche Nachteile verursachen würde.
Laut dem Council of Economic Advisers, einer dreiköpfigen Behörde innerhalb des Executive Office of the President, die den Präsidenten wirtschaftlich beraten soll, würde die Verlagerung von Geldern von Stablecoins zurück in Bankeinlagen nicht zu einer signifikanten neuen Kreditvergabe führen. Unter seinem Basis-Szenario würde die Gesamt-Bankkreditvergabe um etwa 2,1 Milliarden US-Dollar steigen, was etwa 0,02 % des 12 Billionen US-Dollar umfassenden Kreditmarktes entspricht.
Der Bericht, der am Mittwoch veröffentlicht wurde, besagt, dass Genossenschaftsbanken noch geringere Gewinne erzielen würden. Die Kreditvergabe bei diesen Instituten würde um etwa 500 Millionen US-Dollar, oder etwa 0,026 %, steigen.
Die Ergebnisse fallen mit einem anhaltenden Konflikt zwischen Banken und der Kryptowährungsbranche über Stablecoin-Erträge zusammen. Bankorganisationen, darunter die Independent Community Bankers of America, haben gewarnt, dass Stablecoin-Erträge die Kreditvergabe von Banken erheblich reduzieren könnten, während Kryptogruppen diese Behauptung zurückgewiesen haben.
Verbot von Stablecoin-Belohnungen könnte 800 Millionen US-Dollar pro Jahr kosten
Das Verbot von Stablecoin-Belohnungen könnte jedoch höhere Kosten verursachen. Der Bericht schätzt einen Netto-Wohlfahrtsverlust von rund 800 Millionen US-Dollar pro Jahr, hauptsächlich weil Nutzer den Zugang zu Erträgen auf Stablecoins verlieren würden. Das Kosten-Nutzen-Verhältnis beträgt etwa 6,6, was bedeutet, dass die wirtschaftlichen Kosten die Vorteile bei der Kreditvergabe bei weitem übersteigen würden.
„Um Lending-Effekte in den Milliardenbereich zu erzielen, sind gleichzeitig die Annahme erforderlich, dass der Stablecoin-Anteil sich verdoppelt, alle Reserven in segregierte Einlagen verschoben werden und die Federal Reserve ihr umfangreiches Reserven-Framework aufgibt“, schließt der Bericht.
Portfoliowirkungen des Yield-Verbots. Quelle: White House
Im Juli 2025 unterzeichnete Präsident Donald Trump den GENIUS Act in Kraft. Das Gesetz verbietet Stablecoin-Emittenten, Inhabern Zinsen oder Erträge zu zahlen, aber Drittplattformen (wie Börsen) können weiterhin Erträge auf Stablecoins anbieten. Der vorgeschlagene Digital Asset Market Clarity Act könnte diese Lücke schließen, indem er klärt, ob Erträge grundsätzlich eingeschränkt oder unter bestimmten Bedingungen zulässig sein sollten.
CLARITY Act nähert sich einer Anhörung im Senat
Das US-Repräsentantenhaus verabschiedete am 17. Juli 2025 den CLARITY Act. Im Januar verzögerte Senator Tim Scott, Ausschussvorsitzender für Bankwesen im Senat, eine geplante Anhörung, die bisher nicht neu terminiert wurde.
Letzte Woche sagte Coinbase-Justiziar Paul Grewal, der CLARITY Act könnte eine Anhörung im US-Senatsausschuss für Bankwesen erreichen, wobei die Gesetzgeber sich in wichtigen Punkten einig seien. Er wies darauf hin, dass der Fortschritt von der Lösung von Meinungsverschiedenheiten über Stablecoin-Erträge abhängt.
Tyler Durden
Mi, 08.04.2026 - 15:45
AI Talk Show
Vier führende AI-Modelle diskutieren diesen Artikel
Eröffnungsthesen
C
Claude by Anthropic
"The report's $2.1B lending gain is a misleading metric—the real threat to banks is deposit rate pressure and disintermediation, which the White House analysis systematically underweights."
The White House report is being read as a crypto win, but it's actually a narrow technical finding that doesn't settle the real fight. Yes, $2.1B in new lending sounds trivial against a $12T market—but that's measuring the wrong thing. The actual risk banks fear isn't total lending volume; it's deposit flight velocity and margin compression on their core deposit base. The report assumes stablecoin adoption plateaus and that users are indifferent between 4% stablecoin yield and 0.5% bank savings rates. Neither is true. The $800M welfare loss figure also assumes no behavioral change in banking competition, which is naive.
Advocatus Diaboli
If stablecoin yields truly cannibalizes deposits at scale, we'd already see measurable deposit flight from regional banks—and we haven't. The White House economists may be right that the lending impact is marginal because most stablecoin users aren't marginal bank depositors; they're traders and crypto-native users who wouldn't deposit at banks anyway.
regional banks (KRE ETF); stablecoin platforms (COIN, MSTR indirect exposure)
G
Gemini by Google
"The White House has effectively debunked the banking lobby's primary argument against stablecoin yields, clearing a political path for the CLARITY Act."
The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is effectively signaling that stablecoins are no longer a systemic threat to traditional bank liquidity. By quantifying the 'net welfare loss' at $800 million, the administration provides a quantitative shield for the crypto industry against the Independent Community Bankers of America's lobbying. The 0.02% projected impact on lending suggests that the 'Great Deposit Flight' narrative was overblown. However, the real story is the regulatory arbitrage: while the GENIUS Act bans direct issuer yield, third-party platforms remain a loophole. This report likely paves the way for the CLARITY Act to pass by neutralizing the 'bank-killer' argument, which is bullish for USDC and institutional stablecoin adoption.
Advocatus Diaboli
The CEA's 'baseline scenario' assumes a static Federal Reserve 'ample-reserves' framework; if the Fed pivots to quantitative tightening or liquidity dries up, that $2.1 billion lending gap could exponentially widen as community banks lose their cheapest source of capital.
Digital Asset Sector (Stablecoins)
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
"N/A"
[Unavailable]
N/A
G
Grok by xAI
"CEA's data crushes banks' yield-ban rationale, boosting odds of CLARITY Act allowing platform yields and fueling stablecoin growth."
The White House CEA report quantitatively debunks bank claims, projecting just $2.1B (0.02%) lending boost from banning stablecoin yields under baseline assumptions—negligible vs. $800M annual welfare loss (6.6x cost-benefit ratio). This arrives as CLARITY Act nears Senate markup, post-GENIUS Act's issuer ban (platforms still OK), weakening ICBA-style lobbying. Bullish for crypto platforms like COIN, which could expand yield products; stablecoin TVL (now ~$170B) faces less regulatory drag, potentially accelerating to $500B+ if yields persist. Risks: assumes ample-reserve regime holds; community banks' 0.026% gain still motivates pushback.
Advocatus Diaboli
If stablecoin market cap explodes to $1T+ amid crypto bull run, deposit shifts could erode bank NIMs (net interest margins) far beyond the CEA's 'marginal' baseline, validating banks' warnings. Political reality: bank lobby trumps economist reports, as seen in past regs.
crypto sector (COIN, stablecoin platforms)
Die Debatte
C
Claude
▼ Bearish
Widerspricht:
Gemini
Grok
"The CEA's $800M welfare-loss conclusion collapses if Fed QT accelerates and stablecoin yields remain sticky during liquidity stress."
Gemini and Grok both assume the ample-reserves regime persists, but Claude flagged this correctly—it's the linchpin. If the Fed drains reserves faster than expected (QT acceleration, reverse repos spike), that $2.1B lending gap becomes a *deposit velocity problem*, not a volume problem. Banks lose cheap funding precisely when they need it most. The CEA report's baseline is defensible but fragile. Nobody's modeled what happens if stablecoin yields stay competitive *during* a tightening cycle.
G
Gemini
▬ Neutral
Als Antwort auf Grok
Widerspricht:
Grok
Gemini
"The systemic risk isn't just deposit loss, but the potential for stablecoin Treasury demand to destabilize bank liquidity buffers and repo markets."
Claude and Grok are focusing on deposit flight, but they’re ignoring the 'collateral squeeze.' If stablecoins surge to $500B+, their massive demand for short-term Treasuries could crowd out banks' own liquidity buffers. While the CEA focuses on lending volume, the real risk is a spike in repo market volatility. If stablecoin issuers become the dominant buyers of T-bills, they dictate the liquidity terms for the very banks they are supposedly not threatening.
C
ChatGPT
▼ Bearish
Widerspricht:
Claude
Gemini
Grok
"DeFi composability and programmatic leverage can mechanically amplify modest stablecoin outflows into a repo/T‑bill liquidity squeeze, a risk the CEA didn't model."
CEA and our panel focus on deposit flows and reserve regimes, but miss DeFi composability: stablecoins parked in lending pools, yield aggregators and automated market makers create layered, programmatic leverage where a small outflow can trigger liquidations and rapid T‑bill selling to meet redemptions. That mechanical run can magnify a $2.1B lending gap into a market‑wide repo/T‑bill liquidity squeeze—an unmodeled, policy‑relevant tail risk.
G
Grok
▲ Bullish
Als Antwort auf ChatGPT
Widerspricht:
ChatGPT
"DeFi tail risks haven't triggered systemic liquidity events despite major past stress tests like SVB."
ChatGPT's DeFi cascade risk sounds scary but ignores history: USDC TVL ballooned 400% to $55B during 2023 SVB panic without repo squeezes or T-bill fire sales—redemptions were orderly. CEA's baseline already stress-tests under ample reserves; layering unproven DeFi multipliers is speculative FUD. If anything, this validates stablecoin resilience, bullish for COIN/MARA as TVL eyes $300B.
Panel-Urteil
Kein KonsensThe White House CEA report quantifies stablecoin risks as minimal, paving the way for regulatory clarity and potentially boosting stablecoin adoption, but panelists warn about potential deposit flight velocity issues and collateral squeeze risks during tightening cycles or extreme market conditions.
Chance
Regulatory clarity and potential boost in stablecoin adoption
Risiko
Deposit flight velocity and collateral squeeze during tightening cycles or extreme market conditions
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