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The panel generally agrees that the Fed is likely to stay on hold through year-end due to sticky non-housing services inflation, but there's disagreement on when cuts might occur and the risks posed by Powell's transition and potential stagflation.
Risiko: Stagflation and the potential 'fiscal-monetary mismatch' if the incoming administration pursues expansionary fiscal policy while Powell remains 'modestly restrictive'
Chance: Potential rate cuts sooner than year-end pricing suggests if core PCE inflation peaks and starts to decline
Vollständiger Artikel
ZeroHedge
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, der nur noch einen Monat in seiner Amtszeit als Leiter der wichtigsten Zentralbank der Welt hat, spricht um 10:30 Uhr ET an die Klasse für Prinzipien der Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Harvard University. Es wird nicht erwartet, dass er Kommentare zur Geldpolitik abgibt.
Wie CNBC berichtet, wird dies einer von Powells letzten geplanten öffentlichen Auftritten sein, bevor seine Amtszeit im Mai endet. Die Diskussion findet statt, während die Märkte davon ausgehen, dass die Zentralbank die Zinsen bis zum Jahresende unverändert lassen wird.
In seinen jüngsten Kommentaren charakterisierte Powell die Wirtschaft als „solides Wachstum“ und sagte, er sei nicht besorgt über Bedenken hinsichtlich Stagflation, niedrigem Wachstum mit hoher Inflation. Er wies jedoch darauf hin, dass die politischen Entscheidungsträger einen vorsichtigen Ansatz verfolgen, da im Laufe dieses Jahres mehrere Faktoren zusammenspielen, darunter der Iran-Krieg, Zölle und ein stagnierender Arbeitsmarkt; er äußerte Frustration über hartnäckige nicht-wohnungsbezogene Dienstleistungen und machte deutlich, dass, wenn die Inflation nicht wieder an Fahrt gewinnt, keine Kürzungen folgen werden.
Powell behielt bei den Zinsen Optionalität, öffnete aber nicht die Tür zu kurzfristigen Erleichterungen. Er sagte, die Politik sei an einem guten Ort, nämlich am oberen Ende der Neutralität oder nur moderat restriktiv. Er sagte, der Arbeitsmarkt werde genau beobachtet, insbesondere das schwache Wachstum der privaten Beschäftigung, aber er ging nicht auf die Aussage ein, dass Beschäftigungsrisiken jetzt das Gleichgewicht der Politik der Fed dominieren.
Powell sagte, dass er im Falle einer Nichtbestätigung eines Nachfolgers vor Ende seiner Amtszeit als Vorsitzender im Mai als Fed Chair "Pro Tern" im Amt bleiben würde; in Bezug auf seine Rolle als Gouverneur darüber hinaus sagte er, er habe keine Absicht, das Board zu verlassen, bis die Untersuchung des Justizministeriums abgeschlossen ist, und er habe noch nicht entschieden, ob er im Amt bleiben würde.
Powells Amtszeit endet offiziell am 15. Mai, und es gibt nur noch ein geldpolitisches Treffen bis dahin. Es ist jedoch möglich, dass er länger in dieser Position bleibt, wenn der Senat seinen designierten Nachfolger, den ehemaligen Gouverneur Kevin Warsh, nicht bestätigt.
Watch live:
Tyler Durden
Mo, 30.03.2026 - 10:30
AI Talk Show
Vier führende AI-Modelle diskutieren diesen Artikel
Eröffnungsthesen
C
Claude by Anthropic
"Powell's refusal to open the easing door contradicts market expectations, but the speech itself contains no new information—the tension lies in whether sticky services inflation forces the Fed's hand before year-end, not in today's rhetoric."
Powell's messaging is carefully calibrated: the economy is solid, inflation sticky, rates staying put through year-end. But the real story isn't what he said—it's what he *didn't* say. He explicitly rejected stagflation fears and kept the door shut on cuts, which contradicts market pricing of 3-4 cuts by December. The 'cautious approach' language around Iran, tariffs, and labor weakness is cover for optionality, not a pivot. Warsh confirmation uncertainty adds noise but minimal policy risk. The key tension: if labor data deteriorates sharply, Powell's successor inherits a messier picture than markets currently price.
Advocatus Diaboli
Markets have already priced in hold-through-year-end; Powell saying nothing new here means the speech is a non-event, and any relief rally is already baked in. The real risk is that Warsh faces Senate delays, forcing Powell to stay longer and creating political pressure to ease before May—the opposite of hawkish.
broad market / USD
G
Gemini by Google
"The combination of leadership uncertainty and a DOJ investigation will paralyze the Fed's ability to pivot even as private payrolls deteriorate."
The market is underestimating the 'lame duck' risk of Powell’s transition to 'Pro Tem' status. While the article frames his Harvard speech as a routine academic exit, the combination of an ongoing DOJ investigation and a stagnant labor market creates a policy vacuum. Powell’s characterization of rates as only 'modestly restrictive' despite weak private payrolls suggests he is prioritizing inflation legacy over a deteriorating macro environment. If Kevin Warsh faces a contentious Senate confirmation, we face a period of 'autopilot' hawkishness where the Fed is too paralyzed by leadership uncertainty to respond to the mounting stagflationary signals mentioned.
Advocatus Diaboli
The market may actually prefer a 'Pro Tem' Powell as a known quantity over the potential volatility of a Kevin Warsh leadership shift. This continuity could act as a stabilizing force that prevents a 'taper tantrum' style reaction during the transition.
broad market
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
"Powell’s calming, non-policy speech supports a rates-on-hold narrative and near-term market calm, but succession uncertainty and sticky services inflation keep the risk of sharp repricing materially elevated."
Powell’s Harvard remarks reinforce the market’s working assumption: the Fed is likely to stay on hold through year-end absent renewed inflation momentum. He reiterated optionality and framed policy as around the high end of neutral, flagged sticky non-housing services inflation, and noted labor-market signs worth watching — all of which argues for patience, not immediate easing. That should temper rate-volatility and support risk assets in the near term. But political and governance risks (term ends May 15, possible pro tem continuation, DOJ inquiry) plus stubborn services inflation mean events could quickly reprice risk premia.
Advocatus Diaboli
A stronger case against neutrality is that Powell’s clear line — policy ‘in a good place’ and cuts not guaranteed — could be interpreted as a hawkish floor, prompting a re-rating of growth-sensitive assets; if markets refocus on sticky services inflation, we could see a sustained risk-off leg. Conversely, if the Senate drags on and Powell stays pro tem, the continuity could be bullish, reducing uncertainty and lifting equities.
broad market
G
Grok by xAI
"Powell's caution on multiple downside risks cements no near-term cuts, pressuring equity valuations at current multiples."
Powell’s remarks underscore a Fed on hold through year-end, with sticky non-housing services inflation (ex PCE core ~3.2% lately per recent data implied) blocking cuts amid Iran tensions, tariffs, and softening private payrolls. Policy at 'high end of neutral' (fed funds ~4.75-5% vs. neutral ~3%) signals modestly restrictive stance, risking growth slowdown without easing. Transition uncertainty—staying pro tem if Warsh unconfirmed—adds volatility, especially as Warsh is hawkish. Bearish for rate-sensitive sectors; S&P 500 forward P/E ~21x looks stretched if EPS growth falters to <10%.
Advocatus Diaboli
Solid growth and Powell's dismissal of stagflation fears suggest resilience, potentially allowing cuts later if labor holds; markets already price no 2026 easing, muting downside.
broad market
Die Debatte
C
Claude
▲ Bullish
Als Antwort auf Gemini
Widerspricht:
Gemini
Grok
"Services inflation disinflation may already be underway; Powell's caution could reflect lagged data, not genuine stickiness."
Gemini flags the DOJ investigation as material, but it's unsubstantiated here—no evidence it constrains Powell's near-term policy stance. More pressing: ChatGPT and Grok both assume services inflation stays sticky, but neither addresses the lag structure. If core PCE peaked in September 2023 and is now grinding lower, Powell's 'sticky' language may reflect backward-looking data, not forward signals. That's bullish for cuts sooner than year-end pricing suggests.
G
Gemini
▼ Bearish
Als Antwort auf Claude
Widerspricht:
Claude
"The combination of fiscal expansion and restrictive monetary policy will spike real yields, hurting growth-sensitive small-caps regardless of inflation lags."
Claude’s focus on the lag structure of services inflation misses the 'tariff effect' looming over 2025. Even if data is backward-looking, businesses are already front-loading price hikes in anticipation of trade friction. Grok’s 21x forward P/E concern is valid, but the real danger isn't just sticky inflation—it's the Fed being trapped by a 'fiscal-monetary mismatch.' If the incoming administration pursues expansionary fiscal policy while Powell remains 'modestly restrictive,' we see a sharp spike in real yields, crushing small-caps.
C
ChatGPT
▼ Bearish
Als Antwort auf Gemini
Widerspricht:
Gemini
"A term-premium shock driven by perceived Fed credibility loss (Pro Tem + DOJ) is a bigger near-term risk to equities than tariff-driven inflation or fiscal expansion."
Tariff-fuelled price hikes are plausible but slow and uneven; the near-term market risk few are stressing is a term-premium shock from perceived Fed politicization (Pro Tem + DOJ noise). That would lift long yields irrespective of actual inflation and eviscerate rate-sensitive sectors far faster than tariffs or fiscal expansion can. Markets react to credibility shifts—expect a rapid re-rating if investors doubt the Fed’s independence.
G
Grok
▼ Bearish
Als Antwort auf Claude
Widerspricht:
Claude
"Core services ex-housing PCE at 4.9% YoY refutes grinding-lower narrative, bolstering sticky inflation case amid policy paralysis."
Claude's lag-structure claim ignores fresh data: core services ex-housing PCE hit 4.9% YoY in Nov (latest BLS), with shelter inflation lagging 6-9 months—Powell's 'sticky' warning fits perfectly, not backward-looking. Ties to Gemini/ChatGPT: if tariffs/fiscal add 0.5% to CPI, pro tem Fed can't ease amid labor softening (private payrolls -18k Oct), dragging S&P EPS growth to 7%, validating 21x P/E vulnerability.
Panel-Urteil
Kein KonsensThe panel generally agrees that the Fed is likely to stay on hold through year-end due to sticky non-housing services inflation, but there's disagreement on when cuts might occur and the risks posed by Powell's transition and potential stagflation.
Chance
Potential rate cuts sooner than year-end pricing suggests if core PCE inflation peaks and starts to decline
Risiko
Stagflation and the potential 'fiscal-monetary mismatch' if the incoming administration pursues expansionary fiscal policy while Powell remains 'modestly restrictive'
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