Global market volatility due to Iran tensions and oil surge

What happened: Oil prices surged above $110 a barrel due to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and the UAE's shock exit from OPEC, raising fears of prolonged conflict and Middle East energy realignment. Global economies face a potential "big recession" due to the oil price shock, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high despite concerns. A ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran led to a market rally, with U.S. futures and global stocks soaring, and oil prices plummeting.

Market impact: Energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron benefited from the oil boom, while importers like airlines and consumers faced higher costs. Amazon imposed a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on sellers, and European food giant Princes pushed through emergency price increases. U.S. consumer confidence dropped due to high gas prices and the ongoing Iran war. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned of a global recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.

What to watch next: Investors await the U.S. inflation rate release on April 12, which could influence Fed policy and market sentiment. The next U.S.-Iran peace talks, scheduled for April 15, may provide clarity on the conflict's duration. On April 17, Amazon's fuel and logistics surcharge takes effect, potentially impacting third-party sellers' profitability.