Oil Spikes Above $110 on Iran War Escalation and UAE OPEC Shock Exit

Brent surges above $110 as fears grow that the U.S.-Iran war could drag into a prolonged conflict, while the UAE’s shock OPEC exit raises questions over a broader Middle East energy realignment.

Oil Boom, Currency Zoom: Energy Winners Surge as Importers Feel the Burn

• The US-Iran conflict has propelled currencies from energy-exporting countries into the limelight, with windfall profits from exports of oil, gas and metals helping them to outperform the US dollar.

• Strategists from JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have singled out the Norwegian krone and the Australian dollar as the most promising energy-linked currencies, whilst the Brazilian real has so far been the best-performing major currency with a 3.15% uplift on the US dollar since March.

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• Kazakhstan has been the best-performing currency globally, gaining 10% over the past two months, as crude oil accounts for 17% of the country’s GDP.

• Windfall profits from energy sales could prompt major exporters to adopt a tighter monetary policy, potentially even interest rate hikes in 2026 to cap inflation.

• India, 89% dependent on crude oil imports to cover its domestic needs, has caught the other end of the stick, with the Indian rupee losing almost 3.5% compared to the US dollar since the onset of the US-Iran war.

Market Movers

• UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) has agreed to purchase Canadian oil and gas producer ARC Resources for $16.4 billion in a cash-and-stock deal, boosting its production by some 370,000 boe/d, particularly in the Montney shale basin.

• Colombia’s state oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has agreed to buy a 26% stake in Brazilian independent oil producer Brava Energia and intends to launch a tender offer to secure a controlling stake.

• Arguably the most closely watched exploration well of 2025, ENI’s (BIT:ENI) Matsola-1 wildcat spudded in offshore Libya was declared a ‘non-commercial discovery’ by the Italian major.

• US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is expected to close a $1 billion deal for the sale of its 50% stake in Singapore’s 290,000 b/d Jurong Island refinery and other assets to Japan’s top refiner Eneos (TYO:5020).

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Brent futures are back above $110 per barrel as industry voices are increasingly warning of the US-Iran war degenerating into a ‘forever’ conflict. That sentiment was boosted by the failure of this weekend’s Islamabad talks and Trump’s subsequent comments on Iranian ceasefire proposals, saying he was ‘unhappy’ with Tehran’s attitude. The sudden announcement of the UAE's exit from OPEC has seemingly overshadowed the US-Iran war on Tuesday, prompting market participants to speculate if this could lead to a wider shake-up of Middle Eastern energy policies.

UAE Exits OPEC, Throws OPEC+ into Disarray. The United Arab Emirates has said it will leave OPEC and the OPEC+ oil group effective May 1, claiming the decision follows a review of its production capacity (targeting 5 million b/d by 2027) and was based on the country’s national interests.

Chinese Refiners Eye Return to Markets. China’s state-controlled refiners Sinopec and CNPC have started applying for government export permits that would allow them to resume refined product exports in May, citing ample domestic stockpiles of transportation fuels and high regional cracks.

Ukraine Drones Halted Russian Refinery. In a rare occurrence, Ukraine repeatedly attacked the 240,000 b/d Tuapse refinery this week after it was already halted in April 16, with the new strikes causing a major fire at the facility and forcing local authorities to evacuate adjacent areas. Saudi Arabia Extends LPG Force Majeure. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has informed customers that LPG shipments from its Juaymah facility on the country’s east coast would continue to be suspended through May, for the third month in a row.

Nigeria Reaps the Benefit of Iran War. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC has raised the official selling prices of all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes, hiking its flagship grade Bonny Light by a whopping $6.13 per barrel compared to April, whilst Forcados is up by $7.01 per barrel.

Vitol Eyes Key Role in Argentina’s LNG Project. Global trading firm Vitol has signed a memorandum of understanding with Argentinian developer Camuzzi on the $3.9 billion LNG del Plata project, potentially the third liquefaction plant in the country, with an option to buy 100% of its production.

Somali Pirates Take Their Timing Seriously. According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, Somali pirates have attacked and hijacked an oil products tanker sailing off the coast of Somalia this week, qualifying the risk of further pirate attacks in the region as ‘substantial’.

Little by Little, Africa’s Refining Is Growing. Algeria’s national oil company Sonatrach and Chad’s state hydrocarbon firm SHT have agreed to build a new refinery in Chad, adding another 20,000 b/d capacity plant to the 20,000 b/d Ndjamena refinery that is already in operation.

US Sanctions Disrupt Chinese Giant. One of China’s leading petrochemical players, the 400,000 b/d Hengli refinery in Dalian was hit with US sanctions for alleged trade with Iran, with the company’s press release stating it has enough oil inventories to sustain operations through at least July.

Summer Heat Prompts Vietnam to Buy LNG. Vietnam is boosting its imports of liquefied natural gas as it braces for above-average temperatures in May-June, already importing 276,000 tonnes this month, the highest monthly reading on record and double the amount in the same period of 2025.

EV Sales Boom on Hormuz Disruption. In March 2026, the first month of the US-Iran conflict, global sales of electric vehicles surged by 75% month-over-month to 1.14 million units, driven predominantly by Europe, Australia, and Northeast Asia, whilst the sales in North America dipped.

Australia’s China Nightmare Talks to End Soon. Australian miner Fortescue is expected to finalize its term contract with China’s state iron ore buyer CMRG in the coming months, building on last week’s negotiation breakthrough of peer miner BHP, potentially ending a months-long supply halt.

Sweden Issues ‘Early Warning’ on Jet Shortage. Foreshadowing what Europe could face soon, the government of Sweden has issued a notice about potential shortages of jet fuel as the Scandinavian country imported some 630,000 tonnes of jet fuel in 2025, even though it has access to North Sea oil.

P66 Takes Over Shuttered UK Refinery. US downstream giant Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) has completed the acquisition of the 110,000 b/d Lindsey refinery, shut in July 2025 after its previous owner Prax, declared bankruptcy, intending to leverage the site’s storage capacity without resuming runs there.

Suriname First Oil Draws Nearer. French oil giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) will spud its first well offshore Suriname by year-end 2026, remaining committed to its pledge to start production from the $12.5 billion Gran Morgu project by mid-2028, building on the success of neighboring Guyana.

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