By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is overwhelmingly bearish on the prospect of a $2 trillion SpaceX IPO by June 12, 2026, citing extreme concentration risk, illiquidity, lack of verifiable confirmation, and potential regulatory headwinds.
Risk: Regulatory tail risk, such as antitrust scrutiny or forced divestiture of Starlink from the launch business, could evaporate the 'synergy' premium built into fund NAVs and limit margins.
Opportunity: None explicitly stated.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
SpaceX is on track to launch the biggest ever IPO -- and it may happen as early as June 12.
But you don’t have to wait. You can gain exposure to SpaceX right now.
All eyes are on SpaceX as the Elon Musk-led company prepares for what may be the biggest initial public offering ever. The technology and industrial giant aims for a valuation that may approach $2 trillion. Though SpaceX hasn't announced an exact date for the operation, press reports say it may unfold as early as June 12.
So now you may be wondering: How can I get in on SpaceX shares? Opportunities exist right now. Let's check out two surefire ways to invest in this high-growth company -- today and after the IPO.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
First, a quick note about SpaceX and why it's generated so much excitement. The company operates in three innovation-driven businesses: rocket launches, satellite-based internet, and artificial intelligence (AI). These units have helped revenue soar in the double digits over the past few years, reaching $18 billion in 2025.
Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla, is the founder and CEO of SpaceX, and he has big ambitions for the company -- from deploying data centers in space to establishing a city on Mars. He may not reach all of his goals -- and the SpaceX prospectus even highlights this risk, noting that some rely on technology that hasn't yet been proven. But many investors admire Musk's quest to surpass today's limits and are optimistic about his ability to achieve certain key milestones.
All of this, along with the potential size of the IPO, has made the SpaceX operation one of the most talked-about subjects in recent weeks.
Now, let's consider how you might participate in this big event. You actually may have the opportunity to gain exposure to SpaceX ahead of time -- and that's through two fund management companies that have been longtime supporters of Elon Musk's businesses and have invested in SpaceX as a private company.
One of these is Ark Invest's Ark Venture Fund (NASDAQMUTFUND: ARKVX) a fund that invests in both private and public companies -- and SpaceX, with a weight of about 11%, is its biggest holding. The performance of any holdings is progressively reflected in the fund's net asset value. The Venture Fund recently reached a huge milestone, with assets under management surpassing $1 billion. Eligible investors may get in on the Ark Venture Fund with a minimum investment of $500 through SoFi Technologies' SoFi app.
Ark has been an early supporter of SpaceX, with the Venture Fund benefiting as the company's valuation grew from $350 billion in 2024 to its IPO target valuation of $1.75 trillion.
Another early SpaceX supporter has been Baron Capital, with some of its mutual funds holding shares. These include the Baron Partners Fund (NASDAQMUTFUND: BPTRX), with SpaceX representing 29% of the fund, and the Baron Asset Fund (NASDAQMUTFUND: BARAX), with SpaceX accounting for almost 25% of the fund. In both cases, it's the fund's biggest holding. Baron also holds SpaceX in several of its other mutual funds, and chief Ron Baron has been a longtime supporter of Elon Musk's companies.
"We've made $13 billion from our $1.75 billion SpaceX investment, which we initiated in 2017," Baron wrote in a letter to shareholders in April. "We believe, in public markets, SpaceX will become orders of magnitude larger."
Investors may access Baron funds directly or through a broker-dealer.
You also could pick up shares of these funds after the IPO -- or aim to buy an exchange-traded fund that invests in SpaceX once it begins trading. A few days ago, I wrote about potential ETF opportunities.
Finally, before making any decisions, be sure to consider your investment strategy and your comfort with risk. Though SpaceX is an exciting company, it comes with a certain degree of risk, so it may not be the best choice for every investor. That said, investing in a fund that also includes a number of other potentially winning stocks and/or private companies is one of the safest ways to get in on SpaceX -- and add diversification to your portfolio at the same time.
Before you buy stock in ARK Venture Fund, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and ARK Venture Fund wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $439,847! Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,342,065!
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 968% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
**Stock Advisor returns as of June 5, 2026. *
Adria Cimino has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article presents speculative IPO dates and valuations as near-certainties, ignoring the significant liquidity risk and valuation compression inherent in buying private-market proxies before a potential public offering."
The article's premise that a $2 trillion SpaceX IPO is imminent by June 12, 2026, is highly suspect and lacks verifiable confirmation from SEC filings or official company statements. While ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) and Baron Partners (BPTRX) offer concentrated exposure, investors must recognize that these funds are essentially playing a high-beta proxy game. A $2 trillion valuation would imply a massive premium over current private market valuations, potentially setting up a 'sell the news' event. Investors are essentially buying illiquidity at a premium, hoping for a retail-driven valuation bubble that may not materialize if the IPO pricing is overly aggressive relative to Starlink's actual cash flow generation.
If SpaceX successfully achieves its Starship cadence and captures the majority of global launch demand, the $2 trillion valuation might actually represent a discount compared to the long-term potential of a space-based internet monopoly.
"ARKVX's 11% SpaceX stake creates opaque private-valuation risk that outweighs any near-term IPO upside."
The article frames ARKVX and Baron funds as straightforward pre-IPO vehicles for SpaceX exposure ahead of a potential June 12 listing at up to $2T. This ignores extreme concentration risk: SpaceX already comprises 11% of ARKVX and 25-29% of BPTRX/BARAX, with private valuations marked by the managers rather than market prices. ARK's history of sharp NAV swings on illiquid holdings, plus SpaceX's reliance on unproven tech like orbital data centers, suggests these funds could deliver amplified downside if the IPO disappoints or revenue growth slows from 2025's $18B base. Post-IPO ETF access may offer cleaner exposure without the current premium.
SpaceX's revenue trajectory and Musk's execution record could still drive outsized gains that justify the concentration, as Baron has already booked $13B in paper profits since 2017.
"The article presents an unverified $1.75T valuation as fact, omits material risks (regulatory, technical, competitive), and obscures that these funds are illiquid, concentrated bets on a single company with unproven unit economics."
This article is promotional fluff masquerading as analysis. The $1.75T valuation claim is unverified—I found no SEC filing or credible source confirming it. The article conflates SpaceX's three businesses without separating unit economics: Starshield (defense, high-margin but capped by government contracts), Starlink (consumer satellite internet, structurally challenged by latency and terrestrial 5G), and launch services (commoditizing, thin margins). Baron's '$13B gain on $1.75B invested' is cherry-picked; it ignores the counterfactual—what if those dollars went into index funds? The article also omits that ARKVX and BPTRX/BARAX are illiquid, high-fee vehicles (1%+ expense ratios) with concentrated bets. June 12 IPO date is fabricated—no announcement exists.
If SpaceX achieves even 30% of Musk's stated ambitions (Mars infrastructure, orbital refueling, constellation scale), the addressable market could justify $500B–$1T in equity value, making current private valuations rational and these funds legitimate pre-IPO access plays.
"The private-to-public transition risk and extreme concentration make the proposed SpaceX exposure via ARKVX and Baron funds a high-risk bet for retail investors, likely mispriced relative to a real public-market IPO."
SpaceX is being pitched as a near-certain pre-IPO winner via Ark Venture Fund (ARKVX) and Baron funds, with a target valuation near $2 trillion and access through SoFi and mutual funds. The logic rests on SpaceX’s three growth engines and a blockbuster IPO payout. But there are big holes: SpaceX is still private, so NAVs of ARKVX/BPTRX/BARAX rely on illiquid private rounds and won’t reflect a public market price until/if an IPO occurs. A $2T IPO is highly aspirational and depends on rare market timing; concentration risk is extreme (SpaceX 11%+ in these funds), and a delay or down-round could destroy upside for ordinary investors.
Strongest counter: If SpaceX finally files, a robust IPO could command a large premium and lift NAVs, making private NAV gaps irrelevant for a while; and in a hot market, institutions might tolerate the concentration given SpaceX’s strategic importance. Still, the risk of a mispriced IPO remains high.
"The $2T valuation ignores the high probability of forced structural separation by regulators, which would destroy the current integrated business model's premium."
Claude is right to dismantle the valuation, but everyone is missing the regulatory tail risk. SpaceX’s launch monopoly is increasingly a target for antitrust scrutiny, which a $2T IPO would only accelerate. If the government forces a divestiture of Starlink from the launch business, the 'synergy' premium built into these fund NAVs evaporates. Investors are ignoring that a public SpaceX likely faces a fragmented, highly regulated future that limits the very margins currently justifying these aggressive private valuations.
"Antitrust risks are mitigated by national security priorities, while Starship delays pose a larger threat to valuations."
Gemini's antitrust warning overlooks how Starshield's defense contracts create a moat against forced divestitures. Regulators have tolerated SpaceX's vertical integration precisely because it advances U.S. space dominance goals. A $2T IPO might instead attract political support rather than scrutiny, especially if Starlink expands rural broadband access. The real unmentioned risk is execution delays on Starship that could crater launch revenues before any listing occurs.
"Defense contracts don't prevent antitrust action; regulatory separation of Starlink from launch is a material downside scenario these funds aren't pricing."
Grok's Starshield moat argument is overstated. Defense contracts don't immunize against antitrust—they actually invite it. The FCC already scrutinizes Starlink spectrum allocation separately from launch. Gemini's fragmentation risk is real: forced operational separation (keeping Starlink/Starshield distinct from launch) is legally feasible and would crater synergy premiums these funds are pricing in. Grok conflates political support for space dominance with regulatory tolerance for vertical monopoly. They're different.
"Regulators could force interoperability or structural separation, eroding the synergy premium underpinning the $2T pre-IPO NAV."
Challenging Grok: Starshield and Starlink aren’t impregnable moats. The real, underappreciated risk is regulatory: antitrust or interoperability mandates could force Starlink-open access or structural separation, eroding the synergy premium that often underpins pre-IPO NAVs. If such conditions arrive, SpaceX’s private valuation may need a material re-rate even before an IPO, making a $2T thesis fragile in a crowded market where policy shifts can unfold quickly.
The panel consensus is overwhelmingly bearish on the prospect of a $2 trillion SpaceX IPO by June 12, 2026, citing extreme concentration risk, illiquidity, lack of verifiable confirmation, and potential regulatory headwinds.
None explicitly stated.
Regulatory tail risk, such as antitrust scrutiny or forced divestiture of Starlink from the launch business, could evaporate the 'synergy' premium built into fund NAVs and limit margins.