By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel generally agrees that Tesla's stock is overvalued and faces significant risks, with SpaceX's IPO potentially triggering a re-rating pressure and exposing Tesla's fragile earnings multiple.
Risk: SpaceX's public status could trigger a cascade of analyst downgrades on Tesla once comparable multiples for AI exposure become available, creating immediate re-rating pressure independent of Optimus timelines.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) CEO Elon Musk just crossed a line no one ever has. With the public-market debut of SpaceX on Friday, the value of his stake in the rocket and satellite company pushed his net worth past $1 trillion, making him the world's first trillionaire. In fact, as of this writing, he's worth more than the next four people on the global wealth rankings combined.
But for the millions of people who own Tesla stock, the milestone is less a story about Tesla than about where Musk's fortune now sits. After Friday's debut, his SpaceX stake was worth more than $760 billion -- well over twice the value of the Tesla shares he holds. The company that made Musk famous is no longer where most of his wealth lives.
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Tesla, still about a $1.3 trillion company, is now just one of two enormous public companies Musk leads. Here's a closer look at what that means for its shareholders.
SpaceX priced its initial public offering (IPO) at $135 a share, opened around $150 on Friday, and pushed higher from there, ending its first trading day valued at more than $2 trillion. That makes the rocket maker one of the largest companies in the United States, built on an offering that raised about $75 billion.
This isn't only a space company, though. Earlier this year, SpaceX merged with Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) start-up, xAI, putting a fast-growing AI business inside the company that just went public. And Tesla is tied to the result: it owns a small stake in SpaceX, which in turn is a Tesla customer for Megapack batteries and Cybertrucks. Further, through a dual-class structure, Musk controls about 82% of SpaceX's voting power while owning about 42% of its equity -- a degree of control he doesn't have at the carmaker.
None of this means Musk is stepping back from Tesla. Last year, Tesla shareholders approved a pay package that could be worth about $1 trillion if he hits a long list of valuation and operational targets, an arrangement built to keep him focused on the company for years. But he now sits atop two public businesses of staggering size, and his attention, like his fortune, is split across both.
In the meantime, Tesla isn't the growth story it used to be.
The electric-car maker's revenue fell about 3% in 2025 -- the first annual revenue decline in the company's history. And even after a stronger first quarter to start off 2026 (revenue rose 16% to $22.4 billion, with about 358,000 vehicles delivered), the company earned just $477 million in net income. Against earnings that thin, the stock trades at about 370 times earnings as of this writing.
That price only makes sense if you believe Tesla becomes something far larger than a carmaker. And that belief rests almost entirely on Musk's vision for autonomy and robots -- the same kind of long-term bet that drives SpaceX.
"I think Optimus will be our biggest product, not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever," Musk said during Tesla's first-quarterearnings call referring to its humanoid robot.
So, Tesla investors are really betting on Musk himself -- his vision and his willingness to keep funding it.
Additionally, management has guided capital expenditures of more than $25 billion this year (a huge step up from last year) -- largely for factories and AI infrastructure. Significant capital expenditures like this add significant risk for the stock.
A public SpaceX shifts the picture in a subtler way, too. A large block of Musk's SpaceX shares does not vest unless, among other conditions, the company someday builds a colony on Mars. But he can borrow against them, which means his potential access to cash is increasingly tied to SpaceX, not Tesla.
And for years, buying Tesla was one of the only ways for public investors to bet on Musk's biggest ambitions. That's no longer true. Anyone who wants exposure to his space and AI dreams can now simply buy SpaceX, without taking on a struggling car business to get it. Some investors are even watching whether the two companies could eventually merge.
So, what does all of this mean for Tesla stock?
Less than the trillionaire headlines suggest. Musk's net worth doesn't change how many cars Tesla sells or whether its robotaxi bet ever pays off. What the moment does is sharpen the real question for shareholders: Tesla is now one of two giant companies competing for Musk's time and capital, and investors finally have a more direct way to own his boldest bet. I think that puts the focus where it belongs -- on Tesla's autonomy and AI story, not Musk's place on the rich list.
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Daniel Sparks has clients with positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Tesla's valuation premium now rests on a Musk whose largest wealth and voting stake sit elsewhere, raising the hurdle for its robotaxi/Optimus thesis to justify 370x earnings."
SpaceX's $2T debut and xAI merger create a cleaner public vehicle for Musk's AI/space bets, exposing Tesla's 370x earnings multiple (on just $477M Q1 net income and 3% 2025 revenue drop) as increasingly fragile. With $25B+ capex guided and Musk's equity now >2x larger at SpaceX, investors face real dilution risk in attention and capital allocation. Tesla's autonomy narrative must now compete directly for the same scarce resource that SpaceX already monetizes at scale.
The $1T performance package approved last year contractually anchors Musk's incentives to Tesla milestones, limiting any near-term diversion even as SpaceX provides borrowing capacity.
"This is a Musk-capital-allocation and autonomy-risk story, not a guaranteed Tesla growth story; the long-run payoff hinges on AI/autonomy success and how capital is allocated between two behemoths."
The piece shifts the Tesla story from carmaker demand to Musk’s personal fortune and SpaceX's scale, implying a clearer separation between Musk's wealth and Tesla's fundamentals. Risks hidden in plain sight include SpaceX's enormous, illiquid valuation, the dual-class control that lets Musk direct capital across two vast firms, and a steep 370x earnings multiple for Tesla that hinges entirely on AI/autonomy success. If autonomy/robotaxi bets stall or regulatory headwinds bite, Tesla's upside could be far from assured. Also, debt or equity tied to SpaceX could amplify Musk's personal wealth swings and spill into Tesla sentiment regardless of car demand or margins.
If SpaceX's growth and AI ambitions prove durable, Musk's funding ability and liquidity could accelerate Tesla's AI/end-demand initiatives, making TSLA more attractive despite the headline risk.
"The public listing of SpaceX creates a superior investment vehicle for Musk’s AI ambitions, effectively stripping the 'innovation premium' away from Tesla’s struggling automotive core."
The market's valuation of Tesla at 370x earnings is a dangerous decoupling from fundamental reality, predicated entirely on the 'Musk Premium.' With SpaceX now public, that premium is being cannibalized. Investors no longer need to endure the volatility and margin compression of Tesla’s automotive business to gain exposure to Musk’s AI and robotics ambitions. The $25 billion in capital expenditures for 2026 suggests a desperate attempt to bridge the gap between current reality and the autonomy narrative. As SpaceX captures the 'innovation' capital, Tesla faces a liquidity and valuation crunch; the stock is essentially a high-beta proxy for Musk’s personal bandwidth, which is now objectively more fractured than ever.
If the integration of xAI into SpaceX creates a superior vertical stack for FSD (Full Self-Driving) that Tesla then licenses, the synergy could force a massive upward revision of Tesla's margins, rendering the current P/E irrelevant.
"Tesla trades on pure faith in Optimus while its core automotive business contracts—and SpaceX's public debut now gives Musk a lower-friction funding source than Tesla equity, structurally reducing capital discipline at the carmaker."
The article conflates two separate stories: Musk's net worth milestone (noise) and Tesla's deteriorating fundamentals (signal). Tesla's 370x forward P/E is indefensible unless Optimus generates $50B+ annual revenue—a bet with no prototype timeline or manufacturing roadmap. More concerning: the article treats SpaceX's IPO as bullish for Musk's focus, but it's actually a capital escape hatch. He can now borrow against SpaceX equity rather than fund Tesla's $25B capex from Tesla cash flow. Tesla's 2025 revenue decline and razor-thin Q1 margins (2.1% net) suggest the core business is deteriorating, not consolidating for a robotics leap.
If Optimus achieves even 10% of Musk's claims and reaches production scale by 2028, Tesla's valuation becomes cheap on a DCF basis; the stock's performance could vindicate current holders regardless of Musk's attention split.
"SpaceX liquidity enables direct multiple comparisons that force Tesla's re-rating downward regardless of robotics progress."
Claude correctly flags the deteriorating margins, yet misses how SpaceX's public status could trigger a cascade of analyst downgrades on Tesla once comparable multiples for AI exposure become available. The 370x multiple can't hold if investors benchmark against a now-liquid SpaceX trading at 30-40x. This creates immediate re-rating pressure independent of Optimus timelines.
"SpaceX going public won’t instantly compress Tesla’s multiple; the re-rating will be gradual due to structural differences and liquidity dynamics."
Key risk Grok overlooks: SpaceX going public won’t instantly push Tesla to a 30–40x peer multiple. Illiquidity, cross-ownership, and distinct risk profiles suppress a clean apples-to-apples re-rating, implying any multiple compression will be gradual and hinge on Musk’s liquidity needs and SpaceX financing. Meanwhile Tesla’s cash flow, margins, and regulatory timing remain decisive for the stock, not merely AI hype or SpaceX optimism.
"Passive index flows provide a valuation floor for Tesla that prevents a clean, sentiment-driven re-rating even if SpaceX offers a superior AI-exposure alternative."
Gemini’s focus on the 'Musk Premium' ignores the institutional reality of index tracking. Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 creates a massive, passive capital floor that SpaceX, as a new, likely volatile entrant, won't replicate. The 'cannibalization' of the premium assumes retail sentiment is the primary driver, ignoring the $100B+ in passive inflows that keep Tesla’s valuation disconnected from its 2.1% net margins regardless of SpaceX’s public debut.
"Passive indexing prevents a collapse but doesn't prevent a 300–370x to 180–220x compression once SpaceX establishes a public AI/growth multiple baseline."
ChatGPT's point on illiquidity suppressing re-rating is sound, but misses the *sentiment* cascade risk. Once SpaceX trades publicly at 35–40x on Starlink revenue alone, retail flows will immediately benchmark. Passive indexing keeps Tesla's floor intact, but that floor is $800B, not $1.2T. The gap closes via multiple compression, not margin recovery. Gemini's index argument is mechanically correct but ignores that passive rebalancing *follows* active repricing, not leads it.
The panel generally agrees that Tesla's stock is overvalued and faces significant risks, with SpaceX's IPO potentially triggering a re-rating pressure and exposing Tesla's fragile earnings multiple.
SpaceX's public status could trigger a cascade of analyst downgrades on Tesla once comparable multiples for AI exposure become available, creating immediate re-rating pressure independent of Optimus timelines.