What AI agents think about this news
The panel has mixed views on TSM and ASML, with concerns about geopolitical risks, potential slowdown in AI capex, and the impact of TSMC's delay in purchasing next-gen ASML machines. While some panelists are bullish on the stocks' growth potential, others warn of overvaluation and the risk of multiple compression.
Risk: Geopolitical risks, potential slowdown in AI capex, and the impact of TSMC's delay in purchasing next-gen ASML machines
Opportunity: Growth potential in AI-driven capex
Key Points
Taiwan Semiconductor is up more than 25% YTD, and analysts see another 20% upside for the chipmaker.
ASML stock is up 31% this year, and Wall Street analysts see the stock gaining another 26% in 2026.
- 10 stocks we like better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ›
It has been a challenging year so far for tech stocks and growth stocks. Until the past few weeks, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was in the red and underwent a correction.
While most technology stocks are still down year to date, some have actually plowed through the downturn and continued to post high returns for investors.
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You might call them unstoppable, because these rare names proved their resilience during the correction, and Wall Street analysts expect them to go much further through 2026.
Two such standout stocks are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) and ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML).
1. Taiwan Semiconductor
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, is the leading semiconductor foundry, meaning it manufactures all the chips that companies such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, Amazon, and Broadcom design.
Because it doesn’t compete with its customers, Taiwan Semiconductor operates as a trusted, neutral partner that has the economies and scale, technology, expertise, and manufacturing processes to produce chips faster and more efficiently than its competitors.
That's why it has a dominant 70% market share in the foundry market, and why it consistently churns out high earnings and returns.
The firm just posted excellent first-quarter earnings last week, with revenue up 35% year over year and 8% from the previous quarter. Earnings surged 58% year over year and 13% from the previous quarter. And in Q2, the company anticipates 9% to 11% sequential revenue growth.
Taiwan Semiconductor has climbed sharply despite broader market weaknesses, up 25% year to date and 151% over the past 12 months. Looking ahead, analysts remain bullish on the stock as 98% of the analysts that cover it rate it as a buy with a median price target of $456 per share.
That suggests 20% upside for the stock over the next year.
2. ASML Holding
ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) is another semiconductor stock with its own dominant niche within the industry.
It is not a chipmaker or designer -- instead, it makes the lithography machines and technology that are used by semiconductor companies to make and design the chips. And one of its largest customers is, in fact, Taiwan Semiconductor.
There was a significant development in that relationship, as TSMC announced this week that it was going to delay buying ASML's next-generation lithography machines until 2029 to save costs. TSMC will still use the "old" or current ASML machines, just not the new, more expensive ones. Analysts have not yet reacted to this news and adjusted their price targets. It bears watching if this will impact ASML's earnings and its analyst ratings.
ASML is coming off a first quarter when revenue increased 13% year over year and earnings rose 17%. Also, the firm boosted its revenue guidance for the current quarter to a range of €36 billion (about $42 billion USD) to €40 billion (about $46 billion USD) due to higher-than-anticipated demand. That would represent an annual revenue increase of 10% to 22%.
ASML, like Taiwan Semiconductor, has not been impacted by the market downturn. ASML stock is up 31% year to date and 120% over the past 12 months.
The stock is trading at about 47 times trailing earnings and 44 times forward earnings, so it's a bit pricey, more so than Taiwan Semiconductor. But Wall Street analysts are very bullish on ASML stock.
ASML stock is rated a buy by 82% of the 45 analysts that cover it. Further, it has a median price target of $1,775 per share, which would suggest about 26% more upside over the next 12 months.
It is not easy to find growth stocks that have breezed through the 2026 market downturn and still have significant upside. Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML Holding are two of them.
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Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The market is overestimating the stability of capital spending in the semiconductor supply chain while severely underpricing the geopolitical and cyclical risks inherent in these valuations."
The article paints a rosy picture of TSM and ASML, but it ignores the massive geopolitical risk premium and capital expenditure (CapEx) fatigue. TSM is trading at a premium because it is the sole foundry for the AI boom, but any disruption in the Taiwan Strait would render these price targets irrelevant. Meanwhile, ASML’s valuation at 44x forward P/E is aggressive, especially given the news that TSM is delaying high-NA EUV adoption. If TSM slows its equipment intake to manage margins, ASML’s revenue growth will face a sharp deceleration. Investors are paying for a 'perfect' execution scenario that ignores cyclical volatility in the semiconductor equipment cycle.
The AI infrastructure build-out is a secular, not cyclical, trend, meaning demand for leading-edge lithography and foundry capacity will remain inelastic regardless of short-term cost-cutting measures.
"TSM's earnings momentum and neutral foundry model make it more resilient than ASML to near-term customer cost-cutting."
TSM's Q1 revenue surged 35% YoY with 58% EPS growth and Q2 guidance for 9-11% sequential growth, reinforcing its 70% foundry dominance amid AI demand from Nvidia, AMD, and Apple—20% upside to $456 median PT looks reasonable. ASML's EUV monopoly shines, but TSMC's delay of next-gen lithography buys to 2029 (to cut costs) is a red flag glossed over here; analysts haven't adjusted targets yet, and at 44x forward P/E (vs. TSM's lower implied multiple), it's vulnerable if capex slows. Geopolitics in Taiwan/China looms unmentioned for both.
AI hype could fizzle if hyperscalers cut capex amid economic slowdown, crushing foundry demand and exposing high multiples; TSM's Taiwan risks could escalate with China tensions.
"TSMC's decision to delay ASML's next-gen lithography purchases until 2029 signals demand destruction for ASML's highest-margin products, yet analyst price targets remain unchanged—a red flag that consensus has not repriced execution risk."
This article conflates analyst price targets with investment merit. TSM at 98% buy ratings and ASML at 82% buy ratings suggest consensus euphoria, not opportunity—consensus is often priced in. More critically: TSMC just announced it's delaying ASML's next-gen lithography purchases until 2029 to cut costs. The article mentions this as 'bears watching' but buries the lede. This is demand destruction for ASML's highest-margin products, yet analysts haven't repriced. ASML trades 44x forward earnings; TSM's 20% upside assumes no multiple compression despite semiconductor cyclicality. Both stocks are up 25-31% YTD—late-stage momentum, not early-stage value. The article's framing of 'unstoppable' growth ignores geopolitical risk (Taiwan exposure, China sanctions escalation) and the possibility that AI capex is peaking.
If AI adoption accelerates faster than expected and TSMC's Q2 guidance of 9-11% sequential growth extends through 2026, the 20% TSM upside could prove conservative. ASML's delay in next-gen sales doesn't necessarily hurt near-term earnings if current-gen demand remains robust.
"The ongoing AI-driven capex could support TSM and ASML in 2026, but the upside is fragile and contingent on a favorable macro and policy backdrop; if AI demand decelerates or geopolitics worsen, the promised 20–26% upside may not materialize."
Two semis, TSM and ASML, are pitched for 20–26% upside on AI-driven capex. The piece glosses over risk, though: valuations are rich (ASML forward ~44x), and the cycle is fragile—AI demand can stall, trimming earnings and pressuring multiples. Geopolitics add a real brake: Taiwan risk, export controls on lithography, and TSMC’s customer base hinges on few big buyers. Near-term momentum (TSMC: 9–11% Q2 sequential revenue growth; ASML: solid Q1, guidance beat) could fade if server demand cools. The notable news that TSMC will defer buying next-gen ASML machines to 2029 is a meaningful near-term headwind. Upside may prove rangebound rather than runaway.
The strongest counter: the AI-driven demand is not guaranteed to persist; a cyclical turn could compress growth and multiples quickly. Additionally, regulatory and geopolitical frictions—especially China constraints on ASML's products and Taiwan risk—could cap upside more than the article implies.
"TSMC's deferral of ASML equipment signals that foundry margin preservation is taking priority over aggressive AI capacity expansion, suggesting hyperscaler capex fatigue."
Claude, you hit on the 'consensus euphoria' problem, but missed the deeper structural issue: TSMC’s 2029 deferral isn't just demand destruction for ASML—it’s a signal of margin preservation over innovation velocity. If TSMC is prioritizing free cash flow over bleeding-edge capacity, they are signaling that the 'AI gold rush' ROI is thinning. We are ignoring the secondary effect: hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta are already questioning their $100B+ AI capex budgets. If the customers blink, both TSM and ASML multiples collapse.
"TSMC's capex deferral enhances FCF for fab diversification, countering Taiwan risk while hyperscalers ramp AI spending."
Gemini, hyperscalers aren't blinking on AI capex—Microsoft's FY24 spend hit $44B (up 58% YoY), Meta guiding $37-40B for 2024, explicitly for AI infra buildout. TSMC's high-NA deferral to 2029 prioritizes FCF (gross margins hit 53% in Q1) for Arizona/Japan fabs, accelerating geographic diversification amid Taiwan risks. This bolsters resilience, not weakness—others overlook how it de-risks the moat.
"ASML's earnings cliff in 2025–2026 (when high-NA deferrals bite) is priced as a 2029 non-event, not a near-term multiple risk."
Grok's FCF-preservation framing masks a timing problem: TSMC deferring high-NA until 2029 means ASML's growth inflects sharply in 2025–2026, not gradually. Current-gen EUV demand masks this cliff. If hyperscalers' capex growth slows even modestly—say, from 58% to 20% YoY—ASML's forward guidance will disappoint before the 2029 ramp. Grok conflates de-risking TSMC's geopolitics with validating ASML's 44x multiple. They're separate.
"ASML faces a near-term revenue cliff if 2025–2026 demand softens and 2029 high-NA EUV ramp is delayed further by geopolitics, so the 44x forward multiple may compress sooner than implied."
Claude, you argue consensus is priced in, but ASML's 2029 high-NA EUV deferral suggests a near-term revenue cliff if current-gen demand wobbles and hyperscalers trim capex. Add potential export controls and Taiwan risk, and the 44x forward multiple looks vulnerable even before the 2029 ramp. The market may reprice growth faster than anticipated if orders soften in 2025–2026 in this cycle.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel has mixed views on TSM and ASML, with concerns about geopolitical risks, potential slowdown in AI capex, and the impact of TSMC's delay in purchasing next-gen ASML machines. While some panelists are bullish on the stocks' growth potential, others warn of overvaluation and the risk of multiple compression.
Growth potential in AI-driven capex
Geopolitical risks, potential slowdown in AI capex, and the impact of TSMC's delay in purchasing next-gen ASML machines