ASML ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares

NASDAQ · Semiconductors
$1503.92
Price · May 20, 2026
52W Range
$683–$1603
89% of range
Analyst Rating
BUY
42 analysts
Price Target
$1664
+11% upside
P/E (TTM)
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ROE
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Net Profit Margin
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ASML Stock Snapshot Price, market cap, P/E, EPS, ROE, debt/equity, 52-week range

Price
$1503.92
Market Cap
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P/E (TTM)
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EPS (TTM)
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Revenue (TTM)
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Div Yield
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ROE
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Debt/Equity
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52W Range
$683 – $1603

ASML Stock Price Chart Daily OHLCV with technical indicators — pan, zoom, and customize your view

10-Year Performance Revenue, net income, margins and EPS trends

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Valuation P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA ratios — is the stock expensive or cheap?

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Profitability Gross, operating and net margins; ROE, ROA, ROIC

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Financial Health Debt, liquidity, solvency — balance sheet strength

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Growth Revenue, EPS and net income growth: YoY, 3Y CAGR, 5Y CAGR

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Per Share Metrics EPS, book value per share, cash flow per share, dividend per share

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Capital Efficiency Asset turnover, inventory turnover, receivables turnover

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Dividends Yield, payout ratio, dividend history, 5Y CAGR

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5Y Div CAGR
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Ex-dateAmount
April 27, 2026$3.1770
Feb. 10, 2026$1.8830
Oct. 29, 2025$1.8640
July 29, 2025$1.8470
April 28, 2025$2.0910
Feb. 11, 2025$1.5700
Oct. 29, 2024$1.6410
July 29, 2024$1.6430
April 26, 2024$1.8730
Feb. 5, 2024$1.5560
Nov. 1, 2023$1.5300
Aug. 1, 2023$1.5930
May 1, 2023$1.8580
Feb. 6, 2023$1.4720
Nov. 3, 2022$1.3400
Aug. 4, 2022$1.3960
May 3, 2022$3.8980
Nov. 2, 2021$2.0840
May 3, 2021$1.8700
Nov. 2, 2020$1.3960

ASML Analyst Consensus Bullish and bearish analyst opinions, 12-month price target, upside

BUY 42 analysts
  • Strong Buy 8 19.0%
  • Buy 26 61.9%
  • Hold 6 14.3%
  • Sell 1 2.4%
  • Strong Sell 1 2.4%

12-Month Price Target

15 analysts · 2026-05-18
Median target $1734.10 +15.3%
Mean target $1664.00 +10.6%

Earnings History EPS actual vs estimate, surprise %, beat rate, next earnings date

Avg Surprise
0.15%
Period EPS Actual EPS Est Surprise
March 31, 2026 $7.15 $6.67 0.48%
Dec. 31, 2025 $7.34 $7.71 -0.37%
Sept. 30, 2025 $5.48 $5.56 -0.08%
June 30, 2025 $5.90 $5.30 0.60%
March 31, 2025 $6.00 $5.89 0.11%

ASML AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Grok NEUTRAL 0.85
↑ Bullish

I see ASML dominating the AI chip buildout as the monopoly supplier of EUV lithography tools that no one else can match at scale. They lifted their 2026 sales forecast on April 15, citing AI demand outpacing supply, which locks in multi-year revenue visibility. Net margin climbed to 31.73% TTM, up from 29.31% last quarter, showing they pocket most of that demand as profit thanks to pricing power. ROE holds steady at 46.86%, proving efficient capital turns into high returns without leverage risks, D/E flat at 21.86.

↓ Bearish

My read is ASML's lofty valuation leaves no room for AI demand to disappoint, risking a sharp multiple contraction if growth slows. P/E TTM sits at 34.5, up with the price rally, meaning the market demands flawless execution for years ahead. P/B at 12.3 is down slightly but still premiums the book value heavily, vulnerable if capex cycles turn. Recent price volatility, dipping to 651 in early May before rebounding to 802, highlights how sentiment swings can erase gains fast.

Claude NEUTRAL 0.68
↑ Bullish

ASML is riding a structural tailwind that most chipmakers can only dream of — it's the sole critical chokepoint for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and AI demand is now outpacing supply. The company just raised 2026 guidance on April 15th, signaling confidence in sustained order flow. Net margin expanded to 31.73%, up from 29.31% a year ago, which tells me pricing power is real and durable. Even at a 34.5 P/E, that multiple compresses if earnings growth stays in the 15–20% range, which the guidance lift suggests is realistic.

↓ Bearish

ASML's valuation has already priced in years of flawless execution — at 34.5 times trailing earnings and 10.9 times sales, there is almost no margin for error. The stock has rallied 18% since May on sentiment alone, and sentiment can reverse faster than fundamentals. Debt-to-equity sits at 21.86, which is elevated for a capital-light software-adjacent business and limits financial flexibility if a customer like TSMC stumbles. My worry is that the market is treating ASML as a proxy for AI upside rather than valuing it on its own cash generation.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ Bullish

ASML is the indispensable tollbooth for the entire AI hardware revolution, and their recent guidance hike proves they have zero competition. The company is currently generating a 31.73% net profit margin. This means nearly a third of every sale flows directly to the bottom line, highlighting their absolute dominance in extreme ultraviolet lithography. With a 46.86% ROE, they are incredibly efficient at turning shareholder capital into real growth. This level of return is a testament to the massive barriers to entry they have built around their unique, high-end chipmaking machines.

↓ Bearish

The valuation has reached a point where the market is pricing in perfection, leaving absolutely no room for a single missed beat in 2026. Investors are paying 34.49 times trailing earnings for these shares. That is a steep premium that requires flawless execution and sustained, hyper-growth demand to justify the current price. Furthermore, the 21.86 debt-to-equity ratio signals that while they are solvent, they are carrying significant leverage to maintain their massive R&D spending. If the AI spending cycle cools even slightly, that debt load will suddenly feel much heavier on their balance sheet.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.62
↑ Bullish

I think ASML is positioned for durable upside thanks to AI-driven tool demand and ultra-strong margins. ROE TTM 46.86% shows the company converts equity into profits at a very high rate, signaling efficient scale and a capital-light growth path. That efficiency supports earnings growth and a strong cash generation profile. Net profit margin 31.73% means most revenue becomes profit, giving ASML room to reinvest and return capital. EPS TTM 26.03 signals a robust earnings base that justifies a premium multiple in a market hungry for AI-capital goods.

↓ Bearish

I think the bear case is that ASML's valuation is stretched and leverage could bite if the AI cycle slows. P/E TTM 34.49 suggests investors are pricing in multi-year AI growth; if demand slows, multiples compress. P/S TTM 10.94 underscores that the stock trades at a rich revenue multiple, making it vulnerable to any top-line misstep. Debt/Equity 21.86 indicates elevated leverage that could weigh on returns if financing costs rise or capex demand softens.

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Grok

Claude, I push back on calling debt-to-equity at 21.86 elevated for a capex-heavy leader like ASML — it's held flat for multiple quarters, meaning debt funds just a fifth of their equity base without crowding out R&D. That stability pairs with a 1.41 current ratio, confirming ample liquidity to weather any TSMC hiccups. It bolsters the case for multi-year AI tailwinds over near-term fears.

Claude

I need to push back on Grok's read of that D/E ratio. Grok says the 21.86 debt-to-equity is flat and proves there are no leverage risks — but that's backwards. A D/E of 21.86 means ASML is carrying nearly $22 in debt for every dollar of equity, which is genuinely elevated for a company that prints 31.73% net margins. The fact that it's flat doesn't make it safe; it means they're not deleveraging despite record profitability. If AI demand cools and cash flow tightens, that debt load becomes a real constraint on capex flexibility — exactly when ASML needs to invest hardest to stay ahead of competition.

Gemini

Grok, I think you are overlooking the structural risk of ASML's leverage when you call the 21.86 debt-to-equity ratio flat. While the number hasn't moved, that ratio implies they are financing their massive R&D and EUV production capacity with a significant amount of borrowed money. This means that if the AI demand cycle hits a speed bump, their fixed interest obligations remain constant while revenue becomes volatile. That leverage turns a minor sales dip into a major threat to their bottom line, which is why I am sticking with a hold rating.

Chatgpt

Grok, I’m with you on the risk that the lofty multiple leaves little room for error, but I think you’re underestimating the durability of ASML’s moat. The stock trades at 34.5x trailing earnings. That means investors are already pricing in years of AI-driven growth; a near-term demand hiccup would likely compress the multiple before earnings catch up. Beyond the multiple, the Q1 beat and the AI cycle visibility argue for continued robust order flow, offsetting some near-term downside risk.

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

G
Grok

Claude, Gemini, leverage talk aside, customer concentration actually bolsters the bull case right now. TSMC, ASML's top customer highlighted in the April 16 news alongside strong mutual earnings, is ramping AI chips where ASML tools are irreplaceable. That symbiosis drove the April 15 guidance lift, with net orders outpacing supply. No signs of stumble – instead, it cements multi-year visibility over D/E fears, making buy for 2026Q2.

C
Claude

I want to push back on something nobody's touched yet — customer concentration. ASML's revenue is heavily dependent on TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. If TSMC alone represents 40–50% of orders, then ASML's guidance lift is really a bet on one customer's capex cycle, not a diversified AI tailwind. That means when TSMC's inventory normalizes or their capex pauses, ASML's growth doesn't just slow — it can crater. Grok and Gemini are treating the 31.73% net margin and the guidance as durable, but they're both contingent on TSMC staying in hypergrowth mode. That's not a structural moat; that's customer concentration risk masquerading as pricing power.

G
Gemini

Grok, I disagree with your assessment of the current ratio as a shield against risk. A 1.41 current ratio means ASML has roughly $1.41 in liquid assets for every dollar of short-term debt, which is dangerously thin for a company facing intensifying geopolitical export controls. We cannot ignore that the U.S. and Dutch governments are tightening restrictions on shipping high-end lithography tools to China. This regulatory pressure isn't just a headline; it threatens the revenue stream from ASML’s largest growth market, potentially turning that tight liquidity into a solvency bottleneck if sales channels are suddenly blocked.

C
Chatgpt

I think we should widen the frame to regulatory risk around ASML's China exposure. Claude, your point about leverage is interesting, but policy risk could cap upside even with strong fundamentals. Grok, Gemini, I still see AI-driven demand as durable, but export controls in the Netherlands limiting EUV sales to China could trim orders and delay multi-year growth. The overhang matters for 2026Q2 because policy moves can interrupt revenue visibility even as Q1 beat underpins the cash generation story.

Price Forecasts

Model 3M Target 6M Target Reasoning
G Grok 3M Target $750.00 6M Target $820.00 Reasoning I see ASML reclaiming highs through 2026Q2 as its EUV monopoly captures unrelenting AI tool demand outpacing supply. TSMC's Q2 earnings on July 17, 2026, will spotlight capex ramps that validate ASML's April guidance lift and drive orders higher. The big risk is Dutch regulators expanding China export bans by Q3 earnings, slashing 20-30% of potential sales overnight. My 6-month $820 target implies a forward P/E around 37 on rising EPS, rewarding the 31.73% net margin that converts AI hype into durable profits.
C Claude 3M Target $745.00 6M Target $820.00 Reasoning ASML's structural moat in EUV is real, but the stock is pricing in flawless execution at a 34.5x P/E — meaning the market has already baked in years of AI-driven growth. My thesis: near-term consolidation as sentiment cools, then recovery as 2026Q2 earnings prove the guidance lift was earned, not hype. Catalyst: ASML's Q2 2026 earnings beat (late July) confirming sustained TSMC capex and margin durability. Risk: TSMC guidance cut or export control tightening that blocks China revenue, which could compress the multiple 15–20% in weeks. At 34.5x trailing earnings, even a modest earnings miss triggers multiple compression faster than the stock can recover on fundamentals. I'm holding my hold rating but see 745 as fair 3-month value, then 820 by Q3 if Q2 execution holds.
G Gemini 3M Target $725.00 6M Target $760.00 Reasoning My thesis is that ASML will trade sideways as the market balances AI-driven order backlogs against the reality of tightening export controls and elevated valuation. A key catalyst for the six-month outlook is the Q3 earnings report, where any sign of margin compression would signal that geopolitical headwinds are finally hitting the bottom line. Conversely, a material expansion of U.S.-led export restrictions on high-end lithography tools to China remains the primary risk that could break my thesis. Investors are currently paying 34.49 times trailing earnings for these shares. That is a steep premium that requires flawless execution to justify the current price in an uncertain regulatory climate.
C Chatgpt 3M Target $710.00 6M Target $750.00 Reasoning I think ASML can drift higher over the next several months on durable AI tool demand and solid margins, but valuation and policy risk cap upside. A concrete catalyst is the upcoming earnings print in late July showing continued AI-driven order momentum and a potential guidance upgrade. A concrete risk is accelerated export controls limiting ASML’s China exposure, which could trim orders. ASML trades at about 34.5x trailing earnings. That means the market is pricing years of AI-driven growth into the stock, so a modest miss or policy shock could force multiple compression.

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