AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

The panelists generally agree that Aschenbrenner's portfolio is a high-conviction bet on AI infrastructure, with a significant concentration in a few stocks. They caution about the risks associated with the 'crypto-to-AI' pivot, including grid interconnection advantages that may not last, heavy debt loads, and potential margin collapse post-2027.

Risk: The single biggest risk flagged is the potential margin collapse of intermediaries like CORZ, IREN, and APLD post-2027 if AI training consolidates to a few hyperscalers with captive power.

Opportunity: The single biggest opportunity flagged is the temporary advantage of pre-existing, high-voltage grid interconnections held by former crypto miners, which allows them to sell 'time-to-market' to hyperscalers.

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Key Points

Aschenbrenner has an OpenAI pedigree and $5.5 billion in his fund.

His stocks are focused on AI infrastructure.

He sees an AI revolution on the way, beyond what people are preparing for.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Bloom Energy ›

Leopold Aschenbrenner's venture fund, Situational Awareness, has become one of the most widely followed private funds today. It's named after a thesis he wrote that's available to read online, where he details his vision for artificial general intelligence (AGI).

"Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them," he wrote. "We will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word." Aschenbrenner formerly worked at OpenAI, and he started the AGI-focused fund in 2024 with about $250 million.

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As of the end of the first quarter, Situational Awareness had $5.5 billion in funds and 24 stocks. They're mostly AI support stocks, rather than the headline AI names like Nvidia and Broadcom.

Aschenbrenner is intimately familiar with the workings of AI development and has been ahead of the curve, and these stocks are all outperforming the S&P 500 this year. These are the top seven holdings.

1. Bloom Energy: 16%

Aschenbrenner has made Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) his biggest bet. This energy company sells solid oxide fuel cell systems, otherwise known as Bloom Energy Servers, that produce reliable on-site electricity for various facilities. Although the company has been around for a long time, it's gotten a new lease on life since its products can power large data centers off the electricity grid.

Bloom Energy has joined the AI boom, and the stock is up 150% this year alone. Situational Awareness also owns Bloom Energy calls, a separate high-conviction take.

2. Lumentum Holdings: 8.7%

Lumentum (NASDAQ: LITE) provides optical infrastructure for data centers, cloud computing, and telecommunications. It makes laser and photonic equipment that speeds up data transfer, which is why it has become a core component of AI technology. Lumentum has also been in operation for many years, but AI infused new life into the company and the stock, and it's up 143% year to date.

3. CoreWeave: 7.9%

CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) is one of the fund's more well-known stocks for AI investors. The company, which is backed by Nvidia, operates cloud and data center infrastructure and enables customers to run training and inference for AI hyperscaler development more efficiently than using traditional cloud platforms.

CoreWeave stock is up 63% this year. The fund's second-largest position is actually CoreWeave calls, which account for 14% of the portfolio.

4. Core Scientific: 7.4%

Core Scientific (NASDAQ: CORZ) operates data centers, and it recently switched from mostly supporting cryptocurrency mining to supporting AI development. It has some serious funding from companies like JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley as it builds out its infrastructure to meet high demand. Its stock is up 36% year to date.

5. Iren: 6%

Iren (NASDAQ: IREN) is another data center infrastructure provider, and it has also switched from cryptocurrency mining to AI development. It buys land to build data centers, and it focuses on power-connected properties. Because it owns and builds its own locations, it can also build according to client specifications.

Iren has the lowest year-to-date gains on this list at 29%, but it's up 772% over the past year.

6. Applied Digital: 5%

Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) is also a more well-known AI stock, and it has also moved from crypto mining to AI (sensing a theme?) It develops custom data centers for clients and rents them out, and it's building out at a fast pace to meet incredible demand. It has a partnership with CoreWeave, which is one of its biggest clients.

Applied Digital stock is up 32% this year, and 715% over the past year.

7. Sandisk: 4.5%

Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) is yet another AI infrastructure company, but it fills a different gap than most of the stocks on this list. Its NAND flash memory products resolve one of the biggest problems for technology companies by providing non-volatile memory, or continuous memory without a power source. It's also energy efficient and low cost.

Like some of these other stocks, it's a company that has reinvented itself to meet new AI needs for storage solutions, and its niche products are in high demand. Sandisk stock is up 284% this year and a whopping 2,800% over the past year.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, Lumentum, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"The reliance on 'crypto-to-AI' pivots indicates a speculative frenzy in power-constrained infrastructure that ignores the significant execution risks and obsolescence of repurposed mining hardware."

Aschenbrenner’s portfolio is a high-beta bet on the 'physicality' of AI—specifically the power and real estate constraints of hyperscale computing. By pivoting from pure-play software to energy-intensive infrastructure like Bloom Energy and repurposed crypto-miners like Iren and Core Scientific, he is betting that the bottleneck for AGI is not silicon, but the grid. However, the article contains a glaring factual error: SanDisk is a subsidiary of Western Digital and has not traded as an independent ticker for years, casting doubt on the accuracy of the entire list. Investors should treat these 'crypto-to-AI' pivots with extreme caution, as they are essentially leveraged bets on data center electricity supply chains.

Devil's Advocate

These companies are essentially 'pick-and-shovel' plays that lack true economic moats; if the AI capex cycle cools or utility companies successfully block grid access, these speculative infrastructure plays will face catastrophic margin compression.

Data Center Infrastructure sector
G
Grok by xAI
▬ Neutral

"Real AI power crunch validates the theme, but ex-crypto pivots and article inaccuracies signal high execution risks for this portfolio."

Aschenbrenner's $5.5B fund (up from $250M since 2024) bets heavily on AI infra like Bloom Energy (BE, 16%, +150% YTD) for off-grid data center power and Lumentum (LITE, +143%) for photonics, smartly targeting bottlenecks beyond NVDA. But the ex-crypto miners pivoting to AI—Core Scientific (CORZ, +36%), IREN (+29%), Applied Digital (APLD, +32%)—face massive capex (e.g., CORZ's debt load), grid delays, and hyperscaler competition building their own sites. Article errors: SanDisk (SNDK) delisted 2016 (Western Digital acquired it); CoreWeave (CRWV) remains private, no NASDAQ ticker. Concentrated calls amplify volatility if AI hype cools.

Devil's Advocate

If AGI timelines accelerate as Aschenbrenner predicts, power-starved hyperscalers will pay premiums for these niche providers, driving multi-baggers despite pivots.

AI infrastructure sector
C
Claude by Anthropic
▼ Bearish

"A $5.5B fund with 16% in a single stock that's already up 150% YTD is signaling desperation for scale, not conviction in a durable thesis — and the heavy use of call options suggests the manager is hedging his own equity bets."

Aschenbrenner's portfolio is a concentrated bet on AI infrastructure *demand* — not AI capability itself. The 24-stock constraint and 16% weighting in BE (Bloom Energy) signals conviction, but also concentration risk. More troubling: most holdings have pivoted FROM crypto mining TO AI. That's not a sign of durable competitive moats; it's a sign of fungible capital chasing the hottest narrative. CoreWeave calls at 14% of the portfolio and Bloom calls as a separate position suggest the fund is hedging its own equity thesis with leverage — a yellow flag. YTD gains (29–284%) are real but partly reflect multiple expansion in a sector starved for profitable cash flow.

Devil's Advocate

If Aschenbrenner is right about superintelligence timelines and capex requirements, these infrastructure plays are exactly where returns concentrate — and 150% YTD for BE is just the beginning. The 'pivot from crypto' narrative misses that power-adjacent, land-rich data center operators have genuine structural advantages as AI training demands explode.

Bloom Energy (BE), CoreWeave (CRWV), Applied Digital (APLD)
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▼ Bearish

"Concentrated, crypto-linked AI infra bets expose investors to outsized downside if AI compute demand cools or crypto tailwinds reverse."

The piece highlights a high-conviction, AI-infrastructure tilt led by a figure with OpenAI ties, but it glosses over core risks. The top seven positions total about 55% of a 24-stock book, creating meaningful concentration risk. Many holdings are tied to crypto-mining transitions (Core Scientific, Applied Digital, Iren) or to on-site data-center infra (Bloom Energy, Lumentum, Sandisk), which exposes the portfolio to crypto cycles, energy costs, and capex swings in hyperscaler spending. The valuation and growth runway hinge on AI compute demand and Nvidia ecosystem momentum; a pause in AI capex or a crypto downturn could sharply compress returns, more than the headline momentum suggests.

Devil's Advocate

The strongest counterpoint is that AI infrastructure remains highly cyclical and crowded; a macro slowdown or a reversal in crypto-driven demand could hit this concentrated basket disproportionately, even if AI software demand remains intact.

AI infrastructure equities (data-center infrastructure sector)
The Debate
G
Gemini ▲ Bullish
Responding to Claude
Disagrees with: Claude

"The 'crypto-to-AI' pivot is a strategic play for scarce, pre-existing grid interconnection capacity, not just a trend-following maneuver."

Claude, you dismiss the 'crypto-to-AI' pivot as mere narrative chasing, but you ignore the real-world asset advantage: these miners hold pre-existing, high-voltage grid interconnections that are currently impossible to replicate due to utility backlogs. This isn't just fungible capital; it is a 'land grab' for power capacity. While the concentration risk is real, the bottleneck isn't just compute—it's the three-year wait for substation upgrades. These miners are essentially selling 'time-to-market' to hyperscalers.

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Ex-miners' grid connections are no durable moat amid hyperscalers' direct long-term power deals and ERCOT volatility."

Gemini, grid interconnections are a temporary edge at best—most ex-miners like CORZ and IREN operate in Texas' ERCOT, where power curtailments hit 10GW+ during peaks, and hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG) are locking in 20-year PPAs directly with nuclear (e.g., Constellation) or geothermal, bypassing volatile middlemen. This 'land grab' crumbles if AI capex plateaus, leaving miners overlevered to spot prices.

C
Claude ▬ Neutral
Responding to Grok
Disagrees with: Grok

"Ex-miners have a genuine 2–3 year window, but the portfolio treats it as permanent, not cyclical."

Grok's PPA argument is sound but incomplete. Yes, hyperscalers lock 20-year nuclear deals—but those take 5–10 years to operationalize. Gemini's 'time-to-market' thesis holds for the 2025–2027 window when AI capex peaks before grid catches up. CORZ and IREN aren't permanent moats; they're cyclical arbitrage plays. The real risk: if AI training consolidates to 3–4 hyperscalers with captive power, these intermediaries face margin collapse post-2027. Nobody flagged the cliff.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Responding to Grok
Disagrees with: Grok

"Debt-heavy, long-duration PPAs and cycle exposure in the top holdings imply margin compression and potential mispricing if AI capex slows, not just a delayed demand uptick."

Grok's grid-PPA angle highlights a real constraint, but the bigger risk is balance-sheet fragility and timing: CORZ, IREN, APLD carry heavy debt and long-duration PPAs that hurt when AI capex cools or energy prices spike. If hyperscalers push owned-power strategies or policy tightens crypto, these assets become stranded. The 'land grab' narrative may not translate into durable returns; the risk is capital structure and cycle sensitivity, not just timing.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

The panelists generally agree that Aschenbrenner's portfolio is a high-conviction bet on AI infrastructure, with a significant concentration in a few stocks. They caution about the risks associated with the 'crypto-to-AI' pivot, including grid interconnection advantages that may not last, heavy debt loads, and potential margin collapse post-2027.

Opportunity

The single biggest opportunity flagged is the temporary advantage of pre-existing, high-voltage grid interconnections held by former crypto miners, which allows them to sell 'time-to-market' to hyperscalers.

Risk

The single biggest risk flagged is the potential margin collapse of intermediaries like CORZ, IREN, and APLD post-2027 if AI training consolidates to a few hyperscalers with captive power.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.