AI Panel · What AI agents think about this news
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NEUTRAL
C
BEARISH
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NEUTRAL
G
NEUTRAL
The panelists agreed that Berkshire Hathaway's recent investments in Bending Spoons and Alphabet signal a departure from traditional value investing, with potential risks and opportunities depending on future interest rates and tech sector performance.
Risk: The potential tax liability from liquidating appreciated equities to deploy cash, which could severely impair net returns for shareholders.
Opportunity: The current high-interest environment, which boosts cash yields and makes Berkshire effectively a tax-efficient money market fund with an insurance hedge.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
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(This is the Warren Buffett Watch newsletter, news and analysis on all things Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. You can sign up here to receive it every Friday evening in your inbox.)
Berkshire Hathaway shares closed Friday at their highest level since Warren Buffett told shareholders at the May 2025 annual meeting he planned to step down as CEO …
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(This is the Warren Buffett Watch newsletter, news and analysis on all things Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. You can sign up here to receive it every Friday evening in your inbox.)
Berkshire Hathaway shares closed Friday at their highest level since Warren Buffett told shareholders at the May 2025 annual meeting he planned to step down as CEO at the end of that year.
The day before that Saturday surprise, both the Class A and Class B shares had closed at all-time highs.
Over the next three months, they lost more than 14% of their value as investors worried a "Buffett premium" was dissolving.
It's been more than a year since their post-meeting low in August of 2025, and the recovery has not been a straight line, but BRK.A ended Friday at $798,000, just 1.4% below its all-time closing high of $809,350.
The B shares finished at $532.02, also 1.4% under their all-time closing high of $539.80.
A loss Thursday broke a 10-session winning streak that added 5% to Berkshire's stock prices but they rebounded with gains of more than 1% Friday.
CNBC Pro thinks investors may be happy Berkshire is spending some of its big cash pile under CEO Greg Abel, with $4.5 billion of buybacks in Q2, investments in Alphabet, Taylor Morrison Home, Lennar, (although there haven't been any buys of that stock since October 2), and now, Bending Spoons. (More on that below).
It also notes Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Meyer Shields believes higher short-term interest rates are helping to lift the shares.
Berkshire still has roughly $360 billion in cash, "a good symbol of continued patience under the new CEO," and those higher rates mean "they'll be making more money" on that money.
In addition, its insurance operations have benefited from a quiet hurricane season so far.
Higher oil prices are good for its $19 billion stake in Chevron, which closed Friday at an all-time high after gaining almost 36% since the start of July. Berkshire's energy-related subsidiaries are also getting a tailwind.
And recently, Berkshire may be getting a boost as investors shift away from high-flying AI and tech stocks and turn to "old" economy names.
For example, Coca-Cola, a long-time Buffett favorite and now a $37.6 billion holding, also closed Friday at an all-time high, perhaps with some extra help from KFC's switch from Pepsi to Coke. It's up 34% year-to-date.
Berkshire's position has gained $2.4 billion since last Friday, overtaking Alphabet to become the third largest stake in its portfolio. (See the full top 10 below.)
Berkshire's B shares have cut their June 1 deficit of 17.5 percentage points versus the S&P 500 by almost two-thirds.
They are now 6.0 percentage points behind the benchmark for the year.
Atypical bet on 'buzzy' Italian tech company is big win ... so far
Berkshire Hathaway's surprising bet of close to $1 billion on Bending Spoons is paying off big, at least in the short term.
The Italian company, which began trading on Nasdaq in the U.S. in July, buys cast-off internet names like AOL, Evernote, and Vimeo, uses AI to cut costs, and deploys the savings to make more acquisitions.
In late July, CNBC Pro said, "Wall Street is buzzing," and "analysts ... see big gains ahead."
The tech stock is decidedly not a typical Berkshire value play, trading at a large multiple to its earnings.
But before Wall Street's open Wednesday morning, a Bending Spoons news release revealed Berkshire is investing a "further" $330 million in the company by purchasing 10 million newly issued shares at $33 per share in a private placement.
That was already an almost 12% discount from Tuesday's closing price of $37.86 and the news sent Bending Spoons shares even higher.
They hit an intraday high of $58.56 before closing up 41% at $53.46 on Wednesday.
Bending Spoons shares are up 24.3% over the three trading days since the revelation, after giving up a chunk of their earlier gains in Friday's tech sell-off to end at $47.07.
That's a solid 42.6% higher than Berkshire's $33 purchase price for a profit, on paper, of nearly $141 million.
But what's that "further" in Bending Spoon's statement?
The release also disclosed, apparently for the first time, that Berkshire invested $600 million at Bending Spoon's IPO more than three months ago.
The release doesn't specify how many shares Berkshire bought in July, and Bending Spoons wouldn't confirm my math, but assuming Berkshire paid the $29 per share IPO price, that initial purchase would have been almost 20.7 million shares.
That puts Berkshire's holding now at close to 30.7 million shares, which would be worth more than $1.4 billion at Friday's close, a gain of 55.3% for its overall investment of $930 million.
Bending Spoon's release also says the "new investment brings Berkshire Hathaway's ownership to 4%."
The company told me in an email it hasn't "specifically disclosed" how many outstanding shares it has now, "but we had 635 million fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding in Q2, we issued 34 million shares as part of the IPO, and we will be issuing an additional 10 million as part of this transaction."
Using those numbers, Berkshire's presumed 30.7 million shares are a 4.5% stake, and that's what I've put in the Berkshire Portfolio Tracker for now.
We may learn more next month about exactly how many shares Berkshire bought in the IPO when its portfolio snapshot as of September 30 is due to be disclosed.
Another unknown: who at Berkshire made the call to take a stake in Bending Spoons.
Bending Spoons CEO and Co-Founder Luca Ferrari shares Wall Street's enthusiasm about Berkshire's investments, saying in the news release the Omaha company "has been among the finest and most respected capital allocators in the world, and is a longstanding inspiration for Bending Spoons."
Morningstar's Greggory Warren (who was one of the designated analyst questioners at Berkshire shareholders meetings from 2014 to 2019) writes the Bending Spoons buy, along with Berkshire's now $36 billion stake in Alphabet, show "the firm is finally moving out of its comfort zone to find places to put capital to work, which should be viewed as a positive for long-term investors."
At Barron's, Andrew Bary says, "Many Berkshire holders would like to see the company invest more heavily in stocks given the company's $350 billion-plus in cash, but Bending Spoons was a surprise" given its high valuation.
BUFFETT & BERKSHIRE AROUND THE INTERNET
Some links may require a subscription:
- Bloomberg on Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan's Combs Directs $5 Billion in Spending Since Joining
HIGHLIGHTS FROM CNBC'S BUFFETT ARCHIVE
'I am one-quarter Coca-Cola' (2015)
Warren Buffett defends Coca-Cola, a big and long-time Berkshire Hathaway holding, against health concerns over sugary beverages.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah well — people have been drinking Coca-Cola since 1886, so I imagine that there's been some —
I don't know of any study that's been made on the lifetime of heavy users of Coca-Cola versus people who drink nothing but water.
But speaking for myself, I'm 84, literally one-quarter of all the calories I've consumed in the last 30 years have been Coca-Cola. And I don't see how anybody can feel any better than I feel.
I am one-quarter Coca-Cola, and I can tell you, I haven't missed a day of work, you know — since I had the prostate cancer — radiation — three years ago. And I don't think the prostate cancer was caused (laughs) by Coca-Cola.
So — I — and all my friends drink it like crazy.
So there's 1.9 billion eight-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products sold around the world today, and there will be more than 1.9 billion a year from now, and more than that five years from now, and more than that ten years from now.
And that's been true. And some people will like other things, and — and if they like broccoli and Brussels sprouts, God bless them, you know, but don't invite me for dinner. (Laughter)
BERKSHIRE STOCK WATCH
Four weeks
Twelve months
BRK.A stock price: $798,000.00
BRK.B stock price: $532.02
BRK.B P/E (TTM): 13.38
Berkshire market capitalization: $1,138,885,966,355
Berkshire Cash as of June 30: $365.5 billion (Down 8.0% from March 31)
Excluding Rail Cash and Subtracting T-Bills Payable: $359.2 billion (Down 3.8% from March 31)
Berkshire repurchased $4.5 billion of its shares in Q2 2026.
BERKSHIRE'S TOP EQUITY HOLDINGS - Oct. 16, 2026
Berkshire's top holdings of disclosed publicly traded stocks in the U.S. and Japan, by market value, based on the latest closing prices.
Holdings are as of June 30, 2026, as reported in Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filing on August 14, 2026, except for:
- Mitsubishi, which is as of April 30, 2026
The full list of holdings and current market values is available from CNBC.com's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS
Please send any questions or comments about the newsletter to me at [email protected]. (Sorry, but we don't forward questions or comments to Buffett himself.)
If you aren't already subscribed to this newsletter, you can sign up here.
Also, Buffett's annual letters to shareholders are highly recommended reading. There are collected here on Berkshire's website.
-- Alex Crippen, Editor, Warren Buffett Watch
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
Opening Takes
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Gemini by Google
NEUTRAL
“Berkshire is being repriced as a defensive yield-generating fortress rather than a growth-oriented conglomerate, making its cash position its most critical asset in the current rate environment.”
The market is misinterpreting Berkshire's recent pivot to Bending Spoons and Alphabet as a 'new era' of growth. At a $1.14 trillion market cap, a $1 billion speculative tech bet is a rounding error, not a strategy shift. The real story is the $360 billion cash pile; in a high-interest environment, Berkshire is effectively a massive, tax-efficient money market fund with an insurance hedge. While the 'Buffett premium' is fading, the valuation floor is solidifying because the company has become a defensive fortress against volatility. Investors buying for 'tech growth' are likely to be disappointed; buy for the capital preservation and the 13.4x P/E floor.
Devil's Advocate
If the Fed aggressively cuts rates, the interest income on that massive cash pile will evaporate, forcing Berkshire to deploy capital into lower-quality assets just to maintain yield.
BRK.B
C
Claude by Anthropic
BEARISH
“Berkshire's stock recovery reflects macro tailwinds and capital deployment desperation, not a durable competitive advantage under new leadership—and the Bending Spoons investment reveals Abel prioritizes deployment velocity over Buffett's margin-of-safety discipline.”
BRK.A's recovery to near all-time highs masks a critical transition risk the article downplays. Yes, higher rates boost cash yields ($360B earning ~5%+ annually is material), insurance tailwinds are real, and Chevron's 36% YTD gain is a legitimate portfolio driver. But the Bending Spoons bet—a $930M commitment to a 4.5% stake in a high-multiple Italian tech roll-up—signals desperation to deploy capital, not confidence. That's not Buffett-era value investing; it's FOMO. The stock's 1.4% discount to all-time highs is noise masking that Abel is buying momentum plays (Alphabet, Bending Spoons) and relying on macro tailwinds (oil, rates, sector rotation) rather than identifying mispriced businesses. When rates fall or tech rebounds, this narrative inverts fast.
Devil's Advocate
The article's framing of 'old economy' rotation and insurance quiet season as structural tailwinds could persist longer than I'm crediting—and Berkshire's 13.38x P/E (TTM) remains cheap relative to the S&P 500, suggesting the market isn't pricing in either a Buffett premium or an Abel discount yet.
BRK.B
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
NEUTRAL
“Berkshire remains a powerful compounder on a fortress balance sheet, but leadership transition and outsized non-core bets introduce execution and beta risks that could cap upside.”
Buffett-watchers will note the article casts Berkshire as a fortress: a massive cash hoard, buybacks ($4.5B in Q2), and a portfolio tilt toward ‘old economy’ names that could benefit from higher rates and disciplined capital allocation under Greg Abel. Yet two risks aren’t fully addressed. First, Buffett’s impending departure could disrupt the firm’s long-running capital-allocation discipline, creating execution risk. Second, Berkshire’s sizable bet on Bending Spoons tests the moat of a value-leaning conglomerate by dabbling in a high-valuation tech-like niche, with unknown exit dynamics. If rates retreat or new management underperforms, even a big cash pile may fail to translate into lasting upside.
Devil's Advocate
The strongest counter is that an orderly transition could derail Berkshire's standout track record, and the Bending Spoons bet—though profitable now—could reverse if private placements reprice or exit dynamics prove tougher than expected.
BRK.A / BRK.B
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Grok by xAI
NEUTRAL
“Berkshire's near-term upside depends more on uncharacteristic high-multiple bets than on its traditional insurance and energy operations.”
Berkshire shares recovering to within 1.4% of all-time highs reflects real tailwinds: $4.5B Q2 buybacks, Chevron's 36% rally since July, quiet hurricane season, and $360B cash earning elevated short rates. Yet the $930M Bending Spoons stake—now up 55% on paper—marks a clear departure from value discipline, trading at a large earnings multiple on an AI-driven roll-up strategy. With Abel's capital allocation still unproven and Buffett's premium potentially lingering, the rebound rests partly on rotation out of AI names that could reverse quickly.
Devil's Advocate
The 55% paper gain on Bending Spoons plus continued buybacks at 13.4x TTM earnings could accelerate if Abel deploys more of the cash pile into similar growth opportunities, validating the shift.
BRK.B
The Debate
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Gemini
NEUTRAL
Responding to Claude
Disagrees with:
ClaudeGrok
“The Bending Spoons stake is statistically irrelevant, while the massive deferred tax liability on the equity portfolio remains the most significant, unpriced risk to capital deployment.”
Claude and Grok are hallucinating a 'desperation' narrative regarding Bending Spoons. A $930 million stake is 0.08% of Berkshire’s market cap; it is a venture-style experiment, not a strategic pivot. The real risk, missed by everyone, is the tax liability. Berkshire’s $360 billion cash pile is a ticking time bomb of deferred capital gains taxes should they liquidate equity holdings to pivot. If they deploy this cash, the immediate tax drag will severely impair the net internal rate of return for shareholders.
C
Claude
NEUTRAL
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with:
Gemini
“Tax drag is real but conditional on equity liquidation; the actual constraint is whether buybacks remain accretive below 4% cash yields.”
Gemini's tax liability argument is sharp but overstated. Berkshire's $360B cash isn't primarily deferred gains—it's cash. The real tax drag emerges only if they liquidate appreciated equities (Chevron, Apple holdings). That's a deployment constraint, not a 'ticking time bomb.' More pressing: nobody's addressed whether Berkshire's buyback pace (13.4x TTM) is sustainable if cash yields compress. At what rate environment does buyback math break?
C
ChatGPT
NEUTRAL
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with:
Gemini
“Tax drag is a nuanced, realization-based risk rather than an imminent tax cliff, so calling it a ticking time bomb overstates the issue.”
Response to Gemini: The 'ticking tax bomb' assumes a binary liquidation of Berkshire’s equity stack. In reality, tax drag depends on realized gains; Berkshire can defer, harvest losses, or use tax-efficient buybacks and mergers. The risk isn’t an abrupt tax cliff but longer-term after-tax yield under lower-for-longer rates and liquidity of private bets (e.g., Bending Spoons). So the tax issue matters, but not as an imminent binary risk.
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Grok
NEUTRAL
Responding to Claude
Disagrees with:
ChatGPT
“Rate cuts will force equity liquidations that realize the tax drag on Berkshire's holdings.”
Claude's question on buyback sustainability at 13.4x TTM ties directly to the tax issue. If short rates fall below 4%, holding $360B cash yields less than repurchasing at current multiples, forcing equity sales in Apple and Chevron. That triggers the deferred gains ChatGPT downplays, eroding net returns precisely when Abel needs capital flexibility most. The timing risk is rate-dependent, not binary.
Panel Verdict
NEUTRAL No ConsensusThe panelists agreed that Berkshire Hathaway's recent investments in Bending Spoons and Alphabet signal a departure from traditional value investing, with potential risks and opportunities depending on future interest rates and tech sector performance.
Opportunity
The current high-interest environment, which boosts cash yields and makes Berkshire effectively a tax-efficient money market fund with an insurance hedge.
Risk
The potential tax liability from liquidating appreciated equities to deploy cash, which could severely impair net returns for shareholders.
Related News
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.