The panel consensus is bearish due to concerns about Berkshire's massive cash pile, Alphabet's exposure to AI spending, and potential risks from insurance float and data center capex regulation.
Risk: The risk of Berkshire's cash pile remaining idle longer than expected due to underperforming investments or regulatory hurdles, combined with the potential for Alphabet's AI spending concerns to negatively impact Berkshire's earnings.
Opportunity: The opportunity for Berkshire's new CEO, Greg Abel, to deploy capital effectively and generate a significant return on invested capital (ROIC) uplift.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
(This is the Warren Buffett Watch newsletter, news and analysis on all things Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. You can sign up here to receive it every Friday evening in your inbox.)
Berkshire shares shake the Buffett blues with new all-time highs
After almost 18 months, Berkshire Hathaway shares have entirely erased all the ground they lost in …
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(This is the Warren Buffett Watch newsletter, news and analysis on all things Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. You can sign up here to receive it every Friday evening in your inbox.)
Berkshire shares shake the Buffett blues with new all-time highs
After almost 18 months, Berkshire Hathaway shares have entirely erased all the ground they lost in the wake of Warren Buffett's surprise announcement at the 2025 shareholders meeting that he would step down as CEO at the end of that year.
On Friday, May 2, 2025, the Class A shares closed at $809,350. The Class B shares finished at $539.80.
Both were record-high closes.
The meeting was the following day, Saturday, May 3.
On Monday, May 5, BRK.A dropped 4.9% and BRK.B lost 5.1%.
CNBC.com noted a 14% drop in Q1 operating earnings, also announced that Saturday, may have contributed to the declines.
It also relayed some reassurance from analysts like Brian Meredith at UBS who predicted the company's culture and strategy would "remain unchanged" under new CEO Greg Abel.
"Buffett leaves a company that is less reliant on his investing capabilities, with an array of leading businesses with strong cash flows."
Investors, however, were apparently not reassured.
As the stock fell, there were fears a "Buffett premium" was evaporating.
Three months later, at their lowest closes of the year, BRK.A had lost 14.3% of its value and the more widely held B shares were down almost 15%.
Since then, they've rallied by 18%, and on Tuesday this week both classes topped their pre-announcement levels to set fresh all-time closing highs.
They were higher still on Thursday, setting new closing highs of $820,500 and $546.97.
Friday they lost almost 1% but remain roughly one-half of a percentage point above their highs just before the 2025 meeting.
Berkshire's gains have reduced its year-to-date deficit against the benchmark S&P to less than four percentage points.
October sprint
A majority of the net gain in points between the August 2025 low and now has been racked up this month.
Berkshire's B shares have gained almost 9% since the start of October, strongly outperforming the S&P 500's dip of 0.4% and an almost 4.8% drop for the equal-weight NYSE Fang+ index, which tracks 10 megacap tech names, including Meta, NVIDIA, and Alphabet.
Investors have been rotating out of high-flying tech and AI stocks in recent weeks amid growing concerns their massive spending on computing infrastructure won't produce the sustained profits they envision.
Berkshire, by contrast, is "the ultimate anti-AI play," according to a Barron's headline this week.
"With more than $350 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet and close to $50 billion of annual after-tax earnings from a diverse group of businesses, Berkshire arguably is the most defensive megacap stock in the market."
And on CNBC's "Morning Call" Monday morning, Adam Patti of VistaShares, which runs an ETF that tracks Berkshire's portfolio, said the market's turn away from its long-running "momentum-driven frenzy" comes at a good time.
"The market spent a year pricing Berkshire without Buffett. I think it's finally decided Abel can, in fact, run it" and likes that he's taking advantage of the company's cash.
"Berkshire is a coiled spring. When it comes back, it comes back fast and furious."
But, as Patti notes, Berkshire isn't completely separated from the AI world.
CEO Greg Abel has said providing energy to the growing number of AI data centers is a "significant opportunity for Berkshire and Berkshire Hathaway Energy" as long as rates don't rise for its other customers.
And Berkshire has a now $34 billion position in Alphabet, one of AI's biggest players.
BUFFETT & BERKSHIRE AROUND THE INTERNET
Some links may require a subscription:
- Zacks on Yahoo Finance: Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Know
HIGHLIGHTS FROM CNBC'S BUFFETT ARCHIVE
Berkshire's hidden multi-billion-dollar mistakes (2001)
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett admit their biggest errors are often "mistakes of omission" that don't appear in Berkshire's balance sheet.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Munger, I know you're fond of evoking humility to promote rational thought. So my question is, what's the most recent business mistake that you've made, Mr. Munger, and why did it occur? (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: I'm going to take notes on this one. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: The mistakes that have been most extreme in Berkshire's history are mistakes of omission. They don't show up in our figures. They show up in opportunity costs.
In other words, we have opportunities, we almost do it. In retrospect, we can tell that we were very much mistaken not to do it.
In terms of the shareholders, those are the ones in our history that it really cost the most. And very few managements do much thinking or talking about opportunity costs.
But Warren, we have blown —
WARREN BUFFETT: Billions and billions and billions. I might as well say it. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Right, right. And we keep doing it. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Some might say we're getting better at it. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: I don't like mentioning the specific companies, because the — you know, we may, in due course, want to buy them again and have an opportunity to do so at our price.
But practically everywhere in life, and in corporate life, too, what really costs, in comparison with what easily might have been, are the blown opportunities. I mean, it just — it's an awesome amount of money...
WARREN BUFFETT: I might add that when we speak of errors of omission, of which we've had plenty, and some very big ones, we don't mean not buying some stock where we — a friend runs it, or we know the name and it went from one to 100. That doesn't mean anything. It's only —
We only regard errors as being things that are within our circle of competence.
So if somebody knows how to make money in cocoa beans, or they know how to make money in a software company or anything, and we miss that, that is not an error, as far as we're concerned.
What's an error is when it's something we understand, and we stand there and stare at it, and we don't do anything.
Or worse yet, what really gets me is when we do something very small with it. We do an eyedropper's worth of it, when we could do it very big.
Charlie refers to that elegantly when I do that sort of thing as when I'm sucking my thumb. (Laughter)
And there really — I mean, we have been thumbsuckers at times with businesses that we understood well.
And it may have been because we started buying, and the price moved up a little, and we waited around hoping we would get more at the price we originally started — there could be a lot of things.
But those are huge mistakes. Conventional accounting, of course, does not pick those up at all. But they're in our scorebook.
BERKSHIRE STOCK WATCH
Four weeks
Twelve months
BRK.A stock price: $813,595.00
BRK.B stock price: $542.19
BRK.B P/E (TTM): 13.64
Berkshire market capitalization: $1,160,823,061,693
Berkshire Cash as of June 30: $365.5 billion (Down 8.0% from March 31)
Excluding Rail Cash and Subtracting T-Bills Payable: $359.2 billion (Down 3.8% from March 31)
Berkshire repurchased $4.5 billion of its shares in Q2 2026.
BERKSHIRE'S TOP EQUITY HOLDINGS - Oct. 23, 2026
Berkshire's top holdings of disclosed publicly traded stocks in the U.S. and Japan, by market value, based on the latest closing prices.
Holdings are as of June 30, 2026, as reported in Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filing on August 14, 2026, except for:
- Mitsubishi, which is as of April 30, 2026
The full list of holdings and current market values is available from CNBC.com's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS
Please send any questions or comments about the newsletter to me at [email protected]. (Sorry, but we don't forward questions or comments to Buffett himself.)
If you aren't already subscribed to this newsletter, you can sign up here.
Also, Buffett's annual letters to shareholders are highly recommended reading. There are collected here on Berkshire's website.
-- Alex Crippen, Editor, Warren Buffett Watch
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
Opening Takes
“ Berkshire’s upside is now more about cash flow durability and buyback potential than simply Buffett’s stock-picking track record; the transition risk lies in whether Abel can sustain that edge in a higher-rate, slower-growth world.”
Berkshire’s fresh all-time closes amid Buffett’s looming departure reads as a positive mood swing, but the core question is whether this is a durable shift or a multiple re-rating of a cash-rich, defensive megacap. The piece glosses over critical uncertainties: Abel’s exact capital-allocation approach versus Buffett’s style, how Berkshire deploys its $350B+ cash in a slower-growth, higher-rate environment, and how the Alphabet stake and energy exposures perform through cyclical turns. If rates rise or buybacks stall, the earnings floor may not justify the current multiple regardless of cash hoard, suggesting a survivable but not unstoppable upside path.
The strongest counter is that Abel’s governance could prove as capable or more disciplined than Buffett in a high-rate, complex macro backdrop, meaning a durable premium could persist and the rally could be underpinned by genuine strategic execution rather than sentiment alone.
“Recent highs reflect temporary defensive rotation more than durable post-Buffett conviction.”
Berkshire's October rally, with BRK.B up nearly 9% while the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, looks like a classic rotation into cash-rich defensives amid AI capex doubts. Yet the article underplays two risks: the $365.5 billion cash pile has shrunk only modestly despite $4.5 billion in Q2 2026 buybacks, and Abel's energy growth bet hinges on regulators allowing rate hikes for data centers without alienating other customers. Alphabet's $34 billion stake also keeps Berkshire indirectly exposed to the same AI spending cycle it is supposedly avoiding.
The rotation thesis ignores that BRK.B's 13.64x TTM P/E already prices in modest expectations; any sustained earnings growth from Abel deploying cash could quickly re-rate the stock higher than the pre-announcement levels.
“Berkshire is being bought as a low-beta defensive hedge against tech volatility rather than for its future growth prospects under new leadership.”
The market’s recent rotation into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is less about a 'post-Buffett' valuation re-rating and more about a flight to safety as the AI trade hits a wall. With a P/E of 13.64x, Berkshire is trading at a significant discount to the S&P 500, offering a defensive anchor during volatility. However, the 'coiled spring' narrative is dangerous; that $359 billion in cash is a drag on ROE in a falling-rate environment. If Greg Abel cannot deploy this capital into high-quality acquisitions, Berkshire risks becoming a glorified, low-yield T-bill fund. The stock is currently priced for stability, not the aggressive capital allocation that defined the Buffett era.
If the AI infrastructure build-out proves to be a multi-decade secular trend rather than a bubble, Berkshire's heavy cash position and legacy industrial exposure will result in massive underperformance against the technology sector.
“The stock's recovery is a rotation trade, not a validation of Abel's strategy, and deteriorating operating earnings combined with elevated valuation leave Berkshire vulnerable if the AI capex cycle disappoints.”
BRK.B's recovery to all-time highs masks a fundamental problem: the article conflates stock price recovery with business momentum, but Q1 2025 operating earnings fell 14%—a detail buried in paragraph three. The 'anti-AI play' narrative is seductive but incomplete. Berkshire's $34B Alphabet stake exposes it directly to AI capex viability concerns. More troubling: cash fell 8% Q1-to-Q2 2026 while buybacks accelerated ($4.5B in Q2). At 13.64x TTM P/E, Berkshire is pricing in Abel's execution flawlessly. The October rally is tech rotation, not fundamental rerating. If AI spending disappoints and Alphabet stumbles, Berkshire's defensive halo evaporates fast.
Berkshire's $359B in deployable cash (excluding rail and T-bills) is genuinely fortress-like; if markets seize up, that dry powder becomes a massive competitive moat that justifies premium valuation relative to tech peers bleeding capex.
The Debate
Responding to Grok
“Berkshire's massive cash hoard could be a drag on upside in a high-rate, slow-growth world unless Abel's bets deliver ROIC uplift quickly.”
One overlooked risk is the opportunity cost of Berkshire’s massive cash pile in a high-rate, slow-growth regime. Grok notes potential re-rating if Abel deploys capital; but even with buybacks, if ABEL’s bets underperform or regulators curb data-center capex, the cash may remain idle longer than investors expect, capping upside. The article should weigh the possibility of a prolonged cash drag versus a surprise ROIC uplift from Abel's bets.
Responding to Claude
“Q1 earnings weakness connects to Alphabet exposure, raising reversal odds for the current defensive rotation.”
Claude flags the Q1 earnings drop but misses its direct link to the $34B Alphabet stake, which could magnify downside if AI spending stalls. This ties into Grok's rotation point: inflows into BRK.B now face reversal risk once Alphabet volatility resurfaces, forcing Abel to deploy cash faster or watch the 13.64x multiple compress. Regulators blocking energy rate hikes would compound the idle-cash drag beyond what the article or panel has weighed.
Responding to Gemini
“Berkshire's cash is a strategic call option on market volatility, not just a drag on ROE.”
Gemini’s focus on ROE drag ignores that Berkshire’s cash is a call option on market distress. In a liquidity crunch, the ability to deploy $359B is worth more than the yield spread. Claude is right about the Alphabet exposure, but the real risk isn't just AI capex—it's the insurance float. If catastrophe losses spike while Alphabet falters, that 'defensive' moat vanishes. The market isn't pricing in a double-whammy of insurance volatility and tech-driven valuation compression.
Responding to Gemini
“Berkshire's defensive narrative collapses if insurance underwriting weakness coincides with Alphabet valuation compression, forcing cash deployment into claims rather than acquisitions.”
Gemini's insurance float point is critical and underexplored. If catastrophe losses spike—hurricane season, earthquake activity—Berkshire's float shrinks precisely when it needs dry powder most. Claude correctly identified Q1 earnings fell 14%, but nobody connected this to insurance underwriting results versus investment income. If underwriting deteriorates while Alphabet falters, the 'fortress cash' becomes a liability-management tool, not a deployment opportunity. That's a double-whammy nobody priced in.
Panel Verdict
BEARISH Consensus ReachedThe panel consensus is bearish due to concerns about Berkshire's massive cash pile, Alphabet's exposure to AI spending, and potential risks from insurance float and data center capex regulation.
The opportunity for Berkshire's new CEO, Greg Abel, to deploy capital effectively and generate a significant return on invested capital (ROIC) uplift.
The risk of Berkshire's cash pile remaining idle longer than expected due to underperforming investments or regulatory hurdles, combined with the potential for Alphabet's AI spending concerns to negatively impact Berkshire's earnings.
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This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.