By Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel generally agrees that the recent crypto rally is short-term relief driven by dovish Fed signals following a weak jobs report, but lacks confirmation of sustained growth. The FHFA's crypto mortgage directive is seen as largely inconsequential in the near term due to operational and regulatory hurdles.
Risk: The market mispricing the Fed's reaction function and a potential recession leading to massive multiple compression in risk assets.
Opportunity: Short-term relief rallies and volatility spikes benefiting options traders and momentum plays.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) opened at $61,492.99 on Friday, July 3, 2026, up 2.5% from Thursday's opening price. The value of bitcoin rose to $61,853.72 by 8:45 a.m. ET.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) opened at $1,698.37 on Friday, up 5.6% from Thursday's opening price. The value of ethereum moved up to $1,731.87 as of 8:45 a.m. ET.
The prices of bitcoin and ethereum are up following a June jobs report that missed expectations. Analysts had expected a gain of about 115,000 jobs last month and an unemployment rate of 4.3% for the fourth month in a row. Instead, the economy added 57,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%. Those stronger-than-expected job numbers help reduce the odds that the Fed will raise rates following an upcoming meeting.
Earlier this week, we talked about a historical price trend that whenever bitcoin prices had a "red" June, prices rebounded and had a "green" July. June was the worst month for bitcoin prices in four years, so investors are eager to see crypto trends return to a positive trajectory once again.
Watch for more: Will bitcoin still see big gains this July in spite of crypto winter?
The price of bitcoin this morning was up 2.5% from Thursday's opening figure. Here's a look at how the opening bitcoin price has changed versus last week, month, and year:
The all-time high for bitcoin was $126,198.07 on Oct. 6, 2025. The all-time low value for bitcoin was $0.04865 on July 14, 2010.
The price of ethereum this morning was up 5.6% compared to Thursday's open. Here's how the opening ethereum price has changed versus last week, month, and year:
The all-time high for ethereum was $4,953.73 on Aug. 24, 2025. The all-time low value for ethereum was $0.4209 on Oct. 21, 2015.
Bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are rapidly evolving. Follow the latest developments from Yahoo Finance and others here.
So, you put a little mad money into bitcoin a few years ago. Now, your crypto-fueled profit means you have a sweet nest egg to put toward a house.
But can you buy a house with crypto rather than using cash or a traditional mortgage loan? What are the roadblocks? And what about taxes?
President Trump wants the United States to be "the crypto capital of the world." In that spirit, in late June, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) William J. Pulte ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to "prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage."
The FHFA supervises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that fund a major portion of the mortgage industry.
Pulte said the housing system "needs a massive upgrade," adding, "I want people who own cryptocurrency to be able to buy homes like everyone else. I believe cryptocurrency is an asset. I believe Americans should be able to use their crypto if they want to. It's time the housing system caught up."
This signals what could be a fundamental change to how cryptocurrency may be used to qualify for a mortgage.
Learn more: Want to buy a house with crypto? Here's what to expect*. *
Whether you're brand new to tracking the value of bitcoin and ethereum or a more seasoned crypto investor, Yahoo Finance's price-of-bitcoin chart and price-of-ethereum chart below show a visual history of how the currencies' value continues to move and evolve.
**More information on crypto from the Yahoo Finance team: **
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Softening jobs data introduces recession risks that the article underplays, limiting the durability of any July rebound in Bitcoin."
The weak June jobs print (57k vs 115k expected) is spun as crypto-positive by cutting near-term rate-hike odds and reviving the post-red-June rebound narrative. Yet this glosses over recession signals embedded in the labor slowdown, which historically compress risk-asset multiples even if the Fed pauses. BTC and ETH remain 43% and 34% below year-ago levels and well under 2025 peaks, while FHFA crypto-mortgage plans face multi-year implementation and tax-recognition hurdles. Short-term relief rallies are possible, but the setup lacks confirmation that growth fears will stay contained.
The unemployment dip to 4.2% is still low by historical standards, and any policy-driven liquidity boost could override macro concerns and produce the usual July bounce regardless of underlying growth.
"The market is conflating cooling employment data with a bullish pivot, ignoring that stagflationary job prints significantly increase the long-term tail risk for speculative assets."
The market is misinterpreting the June jobs report. While the article suggests a 'miss' (57k jobs vs 115k expected) reduces Fed rate hike odds, this is a dangerous narrative. A sub-60k print in a 4.2% unemployment environment signals stagflationary pressure, not a 'soft landing' that justifies a risk-on pivot. Bitcoin at $61k and Ethereum at $1.7k are reacting to the liquidity-drip hope, but the FHFA directive regarding Fannie/Freddie is the real structural story. If crypto becomes collateral for mortgages, we are essentially re-hypothecating volatile digital assets into the housing market, creating a systemic 'crypto-mortgage' feedback loop that could amplify deleveraging events during the next cycle.
The FHFA directive could act as a massive institutional 'put option,' providing a floor for crypto prices by legitimizing them as Tier-1 collateral in the eyes of the US government.
"Today's bounce is a relief trade on Fed dovishness, not evidence of a trend reversal; the mortgage policy is a distraction from the fact that crypto remains down 33-44% YoY and lacks the fundamental catalyst to sustain a rally."
The article conflates two unrelated narratives: a short-term relief bounce on dovish Fed signals, and a structural policy shift on crypto mortgage eligibility. The jobs miss (57k vs. 115k expected) is genuinely hawkish on growth but dovish on rates—crypto rallied on rate-cut odds, not fundamentals. The FHFA directive is theater without teeth: Fannie/Freddie accepting crypto as mortgage collateral requires solving volatility, custody, tax reporting, and liquidity problems that remain unsolved. The 'green July' historical pattern is survivorship bias dressed as analysis. BTC down 43.5% YoY and ETH down 33.9% YoY suggest we're still in a bear market, not a reversal.
If the Fed actually cuts 75-100bps this cycle (plausible given the jobs miss and potential recession fears), crypto could see genuine institutional inflows and a multi-month rally independent of mortgage policy—the article may be understating the macro tailwind.
"July’s durability for crypto hinges on real macro support and regulatory-path progress, not just a calendar-driven bounce."
The article ties today’s uptick to a softer jobs print and a historical July rebound pattern, but key risks are underplayed. A one-month jobs miss isn’t a lasting trend, and Fed policy remains the dominant macro driver. Crypto liquidity and risk controls are still stretched after June’s drawdown, so a 2–5% move could be short-covering or gamma-driven rather than a durable re-rating. The FHFA’s asset-counting guidance for crypto in mortgages could matter, but lacks immediate traction and could invite tax/compliance frictions. Until macro optimism translates into sustained on-chain activity and accepted crypto lending, the rally feels precarious.
Strongest counterpoint: today’s move might be a liquidity-driven bounce or option skew unwind rather than a signal of durable demand; if macro surprises re-emerge (inflation, growth, or a hawkish Fed), crypto could revert quickly.
"Unemployment near full employment could prolong tighter Fed policy, clashing with FHFA adoption hopes."
Gemini overstates stagflation risks from the jobs miss without noting the 4.2% unemployment sits near full employment, which historically sustains tighter policy longer. This undercuts the liquidity-drip thesis for BTC and ETH. An overlooked connection is that FHFA crypto collateral rules may clash with Basel III bank requirements, capping any structural bid and leaving prices vulnerable to growth scares persisting into Q3.
"Regulatory theater regarding crypto-collateral is being misconstrued as a systemic risk, while the actual danger remains macro-driven multiple compression."
Gemini’s 'systemic feedback loop' theory ignores the operational reality Claude correctly identified: the FHFA directive is currently theater. Banks are bound by Basel III and internal risk committees that will treat crypto as zero-value collateral regardless of agency guidance. We are debating a non-event. The real risk isn't a crypto-mortgage crash; it's the market mispricing the Fed’s reaction function. If the jobs miss triggers a recession, the liquidity 'put' won't save risk assets from a massive multiple compression.
"FHFA crypto collateral rules are operationally constrained now but become structurally relevant if Fed cuts hard; the real trade is volatility, not direction."
Claude and Gemini both dismiss FHFA crypto collateral as theater, but neither addresses the timing risk: if the Fed cuts 75–100bps (Grok's concession), institutional demand for yield could force banks to re-examine crypto collateral rules within 6–9 months, not years. The Basel III friction is real, but it's a compliance problem to solve, not a permanent veto. The stagflation debate misses that a jobs miss + low unemployment = policy confusion, which historically creates volatility spikes that benefit options traders and short-term momentum plays—exactly what we're seeing in BTC/ETH today.
"FHFA crypto collateral signaling could alter bank risk appetite and trigger staged BTC/ETH moves even if policy is non-binding."
Challenging the 'theater' view on FHFA crypto collateral: even non-binding guidance can shift bank risk appetite through signaling, nudging asset-liability committees to test crypto exposure as a liquidity hedge when rates fall. The bigger risk is timing and implementation—custody, tax reporting, and Basel III consistency—creating multi-month to multi-quarter waves. That means BTC/ETH could see staged recenterings rather than a clean rally, depending on policy cadence.
The panel generally agrees that the recent crypto rally is short-term relief driven by dovish Fed signals following a weak jobs report, but lacks confirmation of sustained growth. The FHFA's crypto mortgage directive is seen as largely inconsequential in the near term due to operational and regulatory hurdles.
Short-term relief rallies and volatility spikes benefiting options traders and momentum plays.
The market mispricing the Fed's reaction function and a potential recession leading to massive multiple compression in risk assets.