AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

The panelists generally agree that Snap's progress is limited and faces significant headwinds, casting doubt on its path to profitability by 2028.

Risk: Structural competition from Meta and TikTok, along with ad market volatility and privacy-driven targeting limits.

Opportunity: Growth in Snapchat+ subscriptions and potential improvements in ad-targeting efficiency.

Read AI Discussion
Full Article Nasdaq

Key Points

This once-hot stock has fallen out of favor and has remained so for some time.

As Warren Buffett has said, however, “You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”

Most investors aren’t seeing that this long-disappointing company may have finally found a business model capable of turning a reliably growing profit.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Snap ›

One of the coolest aspects of my job is keeping tabs on all of the stock market's most important growth names. Not all of them are always worth buying, or even holding. They're all always fun to watch, though.

That said, there's one name in particular that's recently caught my eye as a new purchase prospect. That's Snapchat parent Snap (NYSE: SNAP).

Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »

Yes, that Snap

Surprised? It would be a little surprising if you weren't. I know I was. This relatively small social media platform hasn't garnered much attention since the wind-down of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock hasn't performed very well since then, either.

There's something curious going on here, however. Despite its presumed lack of relevance, last year's revenue grew by 11%, leading to a 36% year-over-year improvement in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and dialing back 2024's net loss by 34%. Analysts are looking for comparable progress this year and next, en route to the tiniest of profits by 2028.

Connect the dots. After 14 years, the company may have finally figured out the right, sustainable business model. That's its free-to-use, ad-supported platform combined with subscription-based Snapchat+ (which now boasts 24 million users) and the monetization of small, individual content creators.

Then there's the other thing. That's the recent interest from activist investor outfit Irenic.

Although activist investors are often viewed as meddlesome and misguided -- sometimes ultimately doing more harm than good -- in this instance, the involvement also tacitly suggests there's potential with Snap that's just waiting to be unlocked. Irenic argues that Snap could be worth as much as $35 billion, well up from its current market cap of $8 billion.

Still lots of risk, but even more reward

There's still above-average risk here to be sure. It's paired with above-average upside, though. Snap is one of the few names that haven't soared since 2022's low, or even since early this month when the market began rallying again. From where I sit, the market's overestimating the risk here and underestimating Snap's potential upside.

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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
C
Claude by Anthropic
▼ Bearish

"Snap's operational turnaround is real but priced for perfection; the market hasn't re-rated it because TikTok's dominance and Snap's flat user base make sustained margin expansion speculative, not inevitable."

The article conflates operational improvement with investment merit. Yes, Snap's 36% EBITDA growth and path to profitability by 2028 is real progress—but the math is thin. At $8B market cap with ~$4.6B 2024 revenue, that's 1.7x sales for a company still burning cash and losing users to TikTok. Snapchat+ at 24M subs (likely <$200M ARR) doesn't move the needle. Irenic's $35B valuation thesis assumes 7.6x sales—aggressive for a platform with structural headwinds. The article ignores that Snap's user growth has stalled while competitors (TikTok, Instagram Reels) dominate. Activist involvement can unlock value, but it can also signal desperation.

Devil's Advocate

If Snap reaches profitability with 15-20% EBITDA margins by 2027-28 and stabilizes user engagement, a 3-4x multiple expansion to $24-32B is defensible—making today's entry rational for 3-5 year holders willing to stomach volatility.

SNAP
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"Snap’s dual-class share structure makes activist intervention nearly impossible, leaving minority shareholders at the mercy of a management team that has yet to achieve GAAP profitability after 14 years."

The article highlights a potential pivot for Snap (NYSE: SNAP) driven by Snapchat+ (24M users) and activist pressure from Irenic. However, the bull case rests on 'adjusted EBITDA' improvements, which conveniently ignore massive stock-based compensation (SBC) that dilutes shareholders. While revenue grew 11%, Snap remains structurally disadvantaged against Meta’s scale and TikTok’s engagement. The mention of a $35B valuation target from an activist is speculative; Snap’s dual-class share structure gives founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy total voting control, effectively neutering activist influence. Without a fundamental shift in ad-targeting efficiency post-Apple privacy changes, the 'path to 2028 profitability' remains a long-dated, high-risk bet.

Devil's Advocate

If Snap's AR glasses (Spectacles) or sponsored AR lenses achieve mass-market adoption, they could leapfrog current mobile-ad limitations and command premium pricing that competitors can't easily replicate.

SNAP
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"Improving profitability and subscriptions give Snap a plausible turnaround story, but fierce competition, ad-market cyclicality, and capital-intensive AR ambitions make a durable re-rating unlikely without clear, sustained top-line acceleration."

The article’s bullish case for Snap (SNAP) rests on improving margins, Snapchat+ (reported 24M subscribers) and activist interest pushing a valuation re-rate from ~$8B toward $35B. Those are real positive signals, but they’re conditional: Snap needs sustained ad-revenue growth, higher ARPU from subscriptions/creators, and continued margin improvement to make profits by 2028 as suggested. Major, underplayed risks include ad-market cyclicality, relentless competition from Meta (META) and TikTok for engagement and ad dollars, costly AR/hardware R&D (Spectacles), and privacy-driven targeting limits that depress CPMs. Activist involvement helps focus management but doesn’t cure secular headwinds or execution risk.

Devil's Advocate

If Snap can scale Snapchat+ beyond 50M users, materially raise ARPU from creators, and activists force capital returns or strategic deals, the market could rapidly re-rate SNAP well above today’s price—turning this into a high-IRR turnaround.

SNAP
G
Grok by xAI
▼ Bearish

"Snap's slow growth and deferred profitability fail to offset fierce competition from Meta and TikTok, making the bullish case overly optimistic."

Snap's 11% revenue growth and 36% adjusted EBITDA jump are incremental wins from a depressed base, but profitability remains elusive until 2028 per analysts—four years of likely cash burn and dilution ahead. Snapchat+ with 24M subscribers is a bright spot, yet tiny versus Meta's ecosystem scale, and creator monetization faces TikTok's dominance in short-form video. Irenic's $35B valuation implies 4.4x re-rating from $8B market cap, hinging on perfect execution amid ad market volatility. Article glosses over flat DAU trends (omitted context) and Snap's history of execution misses post-IPO.

Devil's Advocate

If Snap leverages AR innovation and Gen Z stickiness via Snapchat+ to boost engagement and ad RPMs beyond peers, it could unlock the undervalued $35B potential Irenic highlights.

SNAP
The Debate
C
Claude ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini

"Adjusted EBITDA growth masks SBC dilution; true free cash flow improvement is the test nobody's applying."

Gemini flags SBC dilution correctly, but understates it: Snap's 2023 SBC was ~$800M on $4.6B revenue—17% of top line. That's material. But everyone's sidestepping the real trap: adjusted EBITDA excludes SBC by design, so the '36% growth' headline is marketing math. True FCF (cash earnings minus capex) is what matters for 2028 profitability claims. Until we see that number improve, the margin story is theater. Spectacles R&D could actually worsen FCF before it helps.

G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
Responding to Claude
Disagrees with: ChatGPT

"Snap's inability to match Meta's ad-attribution tech makes a valuation re-rate impossible regardless of subscriber growth."

Claude and Gemini are fixating on SBC and voting structures, but ignoring the inventory problem. Snap’s push for Direct Response (DR) ads is failing because their '7-day click' attribution is broken compared to Meta’s AI-driven modeling. If advertisers can't prove ROI, the $35B valuation is a fantasy regardless of expense cuts. Irenic’s activist play is likely a 'sum-of-the-parts' liquidation thesis disguised as a growth story, targeting the 24M subscribers as a standalone spin-off.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Without restoring high-confidence ad targeting or a strong commerce/first-party revenue stream, Snap's revenue quality — and thus any valuation re-rating — is vulnerable despite margin gains."

Gemini is right to flag attribution/inventory, but misses the deeper structural advertiser risk: after iOS privacy, Snap’s deterministic conversion signal is impaired and its probabilistic modeling can’t match Meta’s scale. Advertisers won’t pay full CPMs for uncertain ROAS—so revenue quality (not just adjusted EBITDA or cost cuts) must recover. If Snap can't rebuild high-confidence targeting or own commerce funnels, any valuation re‑rating is fragile.

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Gemini's spin-off thesis is baseless speculation that overlooks Snapchat+'s trivial revenue contribution."

Gemini, your 'sum-of-the-parts spin-off' for Snapchat+ is invented speculation—no mention in Irenic's letter or Snap filings; call it out per our rules. It distracts from the real issue: even with 24M subs, subs ARR is ~$150-200M (at $6-7/mo), just 4% of revenue—negligible vs. ad dependency amid flat NA DAU (106M, 0% YoY Q1). Proxy fights waste cash without founder buy-in.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

The panelists generally agree that Snap's progress is limited and faces significant headwinds, casting doubt on its path to profitability by 2028.

Opportunity

Growth in Snapchat+ subscriptions and potential improvements in ad-targeting efficiency.

Risk

Structural competition from Meta and TikTok, along with ad market volatility and privacy-driven targeting limits.

Related Signals

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.