Mark Your Calendar: Oklo Could Be a Very Different Stock After July 4

Key Points

Oklo's novel nuclear technology still has limited real-world data.

On July 4, its first reactor should achieve a self-sustaining reaction.

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Bank of America thinks nuclear energy is a perfect solution to this dilemma. And Oklo's (NYSE: OKLO) novel approach, which uses small modular reactors (SMRs), should play an important role. There's just one problem: Oklo's technology has very limited real-world validation. But that could all change on July 4.

Oklo's SMR demonstration in July could create a domino effect

Last year, Oklo was selected to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Pilot Program. Oklo qualified for two projects out of the three total selected projects. Atomic Alchemy -- which Oklo later acquired -- was selected for one project.

The Reactor Pilot Program was initiated in the middle of 2025 based on an executive order that directed the DOE "to take a leading role in unleashing the American nuclear renaissance." The ultimate goal of this program is to fast-track commercial licensing for new reactor designs. Progress toward that goal would begin with "at least three advanced nuclear reactor concepts located outside of the national laboratories" reaching criticality by July 4, 2026.

Reaching criticality is just technical jargon for when a reactor is proven capable of achieving a self-sustaining, but not growing, reaction -- a critical proof point for the design's ability to produce sustainable power over the long term.

Oklo hasn't released an exact timeline yet. But there's growing confidence among experts that the company will be able to reach criticality in one of its reactors before the deadline set by the Reactor Pilot Program. "I fully expect that it will reach criticality by July 4," Jeff Brown, CEO of Brownstone Research, said in an article regarding Oklo's Texas-based Groves Isotopes Test Reactor.

Achieving criticality would be an expected, but nonetheless powerful, proof point for Oklo's technological approach to nuclear. It could speed up the pathway for other DOE approvals, as well as the licensing process for the Nuclear Regulatory Council -- a key bottleneck for scaling Oklo's reactors.

Oklo wants to get its first project online by the end of 2027. Reaching criticality by July 4 would give the market much higher confidence that it can reach this aggressive target.

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Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.