Oil Prices Post Biggest Monthly Surge in History

Oil markets are closing March on a historic surge, with prices posting their biggest monthly gain ever after an unprecedented global supply shock.
Gasoline Goes Galactic: Prices Jump, Diesel Spikes, and the White House Feels the Burn
- Nationwide US gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, jumping to $4.018/USG as of March 31, raising domestic political risks for the Trump administration. - With gasoline now up by more than $1 per barrel since the US attack on Iran, prices keep on rising despite the White House’s temporary waiver on the Jones Act to allow foreign-flagged vessels to move US fuel. - California posts the highest gasoline prices across the country, with the cost of a gallon now at $5.887, up 27% from a month ago. - The average national diesel price rose to $5.454 per gallon by the end of March, logging an even more impressive 45% month-over-month spike and creating a huge inflationary risk for consumer goods ahead. - Arguable the Trump’s administration last-resort lever to lower gasoline prices in the short term would be to introduce export restrictions – in the meantime, US gasoline outflows continue to average around 800,000 b/d, with Mexico taking in a third of those volumes.
Market Movers
- Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s very large crude carrier Al Salmi was targeted by a swarm of drones believed to be Iranian Tuesday morning, causing damage to the vessel and sparking a fire onboard the tanker that is fully laden with 280,000 tonnes of crude. - Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has reported another discovery in the offshore Campos basin, next to the already producing Marlim field, finding crude of ‘excellent quality’ at a water depth of 1,178 metres. - Portugal’s oil major Galp (ELI:GALP) reported a ‘significant’ upgrade to its resource estimate for the giant Mopane discovery offshore Namibia, from 0.875 billion boe to 1.38 billion boe. - US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said that its Wheatstone gas liquefaction facility will likely need a ‘number of weeks’ to return to full production rates after Tropical Cyclone Narelle damaged equipment both onshore and offshore.
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Oil prices are set to log the highest monthly gain ever after the global economy experienced its worst-ever oil and gas supply disruption globally. With the Strait of Hormuz now officially closed and Tehran adding insult to injury by striking a Kuwaiti tanker in UAE waters, ICE Brent will roll over into April at almost $120 per barrel. In doing so, prices brushed aside US President Trump’s comments that the US might walk away from its so-called military operation without even opening the Hormuz.
Trump Floats Impending Kharg Island Attack. US President Donald Trump announced that he wanted to ‘take the oil in Iran’ and is mulling a potential seizure of the strategic Kharg Island, home to 90% of Iran’s oil exports, claiming that it would be ‘very easy’ as Tehran has no defense there.
G7 Expresses Readiness to Draw Down Oil. Finance ministers from G7 nations announced that they stand ready to take ‘all necessary measures’ to ensure energy market stability, implying there could be further SPR releases, and called on countries ‘to refrain from unjustified export restrictions’.
Israel’s Key Refinery Catches Fire. Israel’s 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery, the largest of the country’s two operational refineries covering some 60% of its needs, was hit by an Iranian missile attack that triggered a fire in the plant’s refined product storage tanks farm, delaying its restart.
Golden Pass Produces Its First LNG. Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture of QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%), has produced its first liquefied natural gas this week, bringing the 18 mtpa capacity plant in Sabine Pass one step closer to a full commissioning, expected later in April.
Russia Delivers Oil Cargo to Embattled Cuba. Russian authorities announced that the Anatoly Kolodkin tanker delivered 100,000 metric tonnes of crude to Cuba’s Matanzas fuel terminal, only the second ship to discharge in the Caribbean island in 2026 to date due to Trump’s political pressure.
Saudi Aramco Re-Routes Everything It Can. Saudi Arabia’s exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu surged to a new record of 4.6 million b/d last week after the country’s state oil firm Saudi Aramco announced that the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline was finally pumping at full capacity.
South Korea Mulls Nationwide Driving Curbs. South Korea is considering extending driving curbs to the general public if global oil prices climb to $120-130 per barrel, the first nationwide restrictions since the 1991 Gulf War, having already launched a plate rotation system for the public sector.
Nigeria’s Key Refinery Turns to Domestic Oil. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC will be allocating seven crude cargoes from the country’s domestic production to the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, up from the 5 it was receiving in earlier months, as soaring freight costs make imports costlier.
Drone Strikes Strangle Russian Exports. Ukraine’s drone strikes drastically curbed Russia’s oil exports after both Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk were hit past week, with weekly crude flows slumping to 2.32 million b/d, down 1 million b/d compared to the March average.
Chile’s Mining Woes to Lift Copper. Lingering copper prices could see some pricing upside after Chile posted its lowest monthly copper production in almost 9 years in February, with output totaling 378,554 tonnes and down 5% from a year ago as key mines continue to underperform.
California’s Offshore Riches Flow Again. US independent producer Sable Offshore (NYSE:SOC) has started selling some 50,000 b/d of crude from its restarted Santa Ynez pipeline system offshore California, filling up the pipe after an 11-year hiatus triggered by a major 2015 oil spill.
Key US Player Returns to Libya. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has signed a deal with Libya’s National Oil Corporation to appraise and drill a ‘promising’ offshore oil block, a month after Tripoli announced the results of its first licensing round in 18 years, locking in block NC146 via direct talks.
Canada Fights to Keep Key Smelter. The governments of Canada and Quebec are close to an agreement with global mining giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) to keep the country’s only operational copper smelter online, suggesting a closure could be avoided for the 0.8 mtpa Horne Smelter.
US Exempts Offshore Drillers. A federal panel that included Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and EPA administrator Lee Zeldin voted unanimously to exempt oil and gas drillers operating in the Gulf of Mexico from a decades-old law to protect endangered species, citing potential environmental lawsuits.
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