Oil price volatility amid geopolitical tensions

What happened: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have driven oil price volatility. On March 30, 2026, Brent crude oil was trading at $111.10 per barrel, up $37.69 from a year ago. Prices surged to multi-year highs on June 2, 2026, with June WTI crude oil (CLM26) closing at +6.95% and June RBOB gasoline (RBM26) at +4.81%. This was due to a combination of seasonally lower demand, continued Middle East turbulence, and stalled US-Iran peace talks. However, prices plummeted on June 3, 2026, with May WTI crude oil (CLK26) closing down -18.54% (-16.41%) and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26) down -9.06%, after the US announced a ceasefire in the region.

Market impact: Oil producers like Chevron and ExxonMobil have seen their stock prices and earnings boosted by higher oil prices. Conversely, airlines and other transportation companies face increased fuel costs, which can negatively impact their profitability. Consumers also bear the brunt of higher gasoline prices, with nationwide US gasoline prices topping $4 per gallon.

What to watch next: The evolution of US-Iran relations will continue to influence oil prices. Key catalysts include any changes in US policy towards Iran (June 15, 2026, is the next potential deadline), as well as any developments in the Middle East that could impact oil supply. Additionally, the release of weekly US crude inventory data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on June 16, 2026, will provide insights into domestic supply dynamics.