One Stock To Watch As the Rare Earth War Intensifies

<div class="bodyItems-wrapper"> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">REalloys (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALOY/">NASDAQ: ALOY</a>) built something that barely exists anywhere in the Western world — a rare earth supply chain that doesn’t touch China at any step. Japan figured out decades ago why that matters. The U.S. is just realizing it in 2026.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Japan’s <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/japans-critical-minerals-resilience-didnt-start-in-2010-or-2026">response</a> to China’s rare earth processing monopoly was decisive. The Japanese government built strategic stockpiles of processed rare earth materials.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">On top of that, individual Japanese companies quietly built their own reserves — covering years of supply each. Combined, that has given Japan one of the deepest <a href="https://oilprice.com/Interviews/Inside-North-Americas-First-Fully-Integrated-Rare-Earth-Facility.html">rare earth buffers</a> in the world.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The United States, on the other hand, <a href="https://oilprice.com/Interviews/Inside-North-Americas-First-Fully-Integrated-Rare-Earth-Facility.html">has stockpiled nothing</a>. Neither has Europe.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Both have been running entirely on just-in-time supply from China, a country that issues rare earth export licenses on a monthly basis. For decades, China has crashed prices whenever Western investment in <a href="https://oilprice.com/Interviews/Inside-North-Americas-First-Fully-Integrated-Rare-Earth-Facility.html">rare earth processing</a> gained momentum. That’s the gap REalloys moved to fill.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt"><a href="http://www.realloys.com">REalloys</a> is not a mining company waiting for permits and feasibility studies. It’s built around the part of the supply chain where the West is most exposed: converting raw materials into the finished metals, alloys, and magnets that go into defense systems, advanced manufacturing, and the machines that run today’s modern economy.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">And it’s already locked in the infrastructure to do it.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Thanks to their recent partnership with the Saskatchewan Research Council, the company holds an <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/08/3201374/0/en/Blackboxstocks-Inc-Merger-Target-REalloys-Enters-into-Historic-Partnership-with-the-SRC-to-Establish-North-America-s-First-Commercial-Scale-Heavy-Rare-Earth-Production.html">exclusive offtake covering 80% of production</a> from the SRC’s Rare Earth Processing Facility — North America’s <a href="https://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-US-Just-Took-a-Giant-Step-in-The-Rare-Earth-Race-With-China.html">only operational</a>, fully non-Chinese rare earth processing plant.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">REalloys’ own metallization facility in Euclid, Ohio, then converts those metals into defense-grade alloys and magnet-ready inputs. And <a href="https://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-US-Just-Took-a-Giant-Step-in-The-Rare-Earth-Race-With-China.html">feedstock</a> is secured from North America, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Greenland.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">In other words, while the rest of the West was ordering processed rare earths from Beijing on a monthly basis, REalloys was busy locking in the infrastructure that could potentially become the only compliant source standing.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The New Battlefield Runs on Magnets</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The scale of the West’s dependency on China becomes clearest when you look at how warfare has changed in recent years.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The use of drones in the Ukraine-Russia conflict has changed warfare, unlike anything since World War I and the introduction of the machine gun.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Today’s battlefields are now dominated by drone technology. And every one of those drones requires rare earth magnets to function.</p> </div> <div class="read-more-wrapper" style="display: none" data-testid="read-more"> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">In 2024, Ukraine alone produced 1.2 million combat drones — and nearly every magnet in every one of them was manufactured in China.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">It’s not just drones, however. An F-35 carries about 435 kilos of rare earths. A next-generation U.S. destroyer needs four and a half tons. A nuclear submarine requires one and a half tons.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The same rare earth magnets also underpin large parts of the U.S. technology and manufacturing ecosystem. Data centers operated by Microsoft (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/">NASDAQ: MSFT</a>) depend on thousands of precision motors inside cooling systems, robotics, and backup power equipment that rely on rare earth permanent magnets to operate reliably at scale.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Meanwhile, the electric vehicle platforms produced by General Motors (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/">NYSE: GM</a>) rely heavily on high-performance permanent magnet motors containing neodymium and dysprosium to deliver the torque and efficiency modern EV drivetrains require.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">That’s the strategic problem REalloys is trying to remedy: without rare earth magnets, there are no drones, no fighter jets, and no missile defense. And right now, every one of those magnets that power our military equipment comes from China.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Unlike oil, though, which can be sourced from dozens of countries, there is no alternative waiting in the wings.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Because of rare earths’ unique magnetic properties, each of these <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/20/14901">17 elements</a> holds subtly different characteristics that make them irreplaceable in motors, sensors, guidance systems, and electronics.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The ability to turn those materials into something usable barely exists outside China today. But it’s exactly what REalloys (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALOY/">NASDAQ: ALOY</a>) has locked in — through its exclusive offtake with its processing partner and its own metallization facility in Ohio.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The Squeeze No One Prepared For</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">While REalloys spotted this vulnerability early, the window for anyone else to catch up is closing fast.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">All signs point to global <a href="https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2026/01/09/market-concentration-of-rare-earth-elements-chinas-dominance-and-the-global-response/">rare earth demand</a> rising by two to three times by 2030-2035, and potentially seven to ten times by 2050, as electrification, defense modernization, and advanced manufacturing accelerate all at once.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">At the same time, China itself now consumes <a href="https://oilprice.com/Interviews/Inside-North-Americas-First-Fully-Integrated-Rare-Earth-Facility.html">roughly 60</a> percent of its own rare earths for domestic manufacturing, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, electronics, and robotics.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">And China’s consumption is growing. Which means their ability to flood the global market the way it did a decade ago is shrinking, because it needs more of its own supply.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The lack of supply isn’t the only reason the United States is now scrambling, however. It’s also because China has shown its willingness to use its position as an economic weapon.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">When China briefly restricted rare earth exports, a Ford plant was forced to shut down almost immediately. When Trump threatened 100% tariffs, China’s response was simple: no more processed rare earths. Trump backed off very quickly.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">This dependency goes beyond defense contractors. Major U.S. industries are also exposed. The electric vehicle transition led by manufacturers like General Motors (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/">NYSE: GM</a>) relies heavily on permanent magnet motors that require rare earth elements to achieve the efficiency and performance expected from next-generation EV platforms.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">At the same time, the rapid expansion of cloud and AI infrastructure operated by companies such as Microsoft (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/">Nasdaq: MSFT</a>) depends on vast data centers filled with advanced cooling systems, automation equipment, and precision components that incorporate rare earth magnets. As electrification and digital infrastructure accelerate, secure access to these materials is becoming a strategic issue for the broader U.S. economy—not just the military.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Put those two trends together, and the picture is stark: demand is surging, China’s surplus is shrinking, and the West has built no stockpile, no meaningful processing capability, and no buffer.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Japan saw this coming and built reserves to ride it out years ago. The U.S. and Europe have fallen years behind as rare earth demand continues to rise.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">This is why the Pentagon’s fast-approaching <a href="https://www.acquisition.gov/dfars/252.225-7052-restriction-acquisition-certain-magnets-tantalum-and-tungsten.">January 1, 2027</a>, deadline becomes all the more pressing. Starting next year, Chinese-sourced rare earths will be banned from the U.S. defense supply chain — not just the finished magnets, but every stage: mining, refining, separation, melting, and production.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Every defense contractor in the country will need a qualified, non-Chinese source for these materials. And REalloys is currently the only North American company positioned to meet that deadline with a fully non-Chinese supply chain already in operation.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Why Everyone Else Is Still Stuck</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The West relinquished its rare earth processing capability to China decades ago. Since then, it has lost not just the equipment but the institutional knowledge — the hands-on expertise that takes years to develop.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">And every time Western companies tried to rebuild, China crushed the economics. It happened in the early 2000s, again in 2010-2011, and again in 2015-16 — each time prices crashed until the Western investment interest case collapsed. That knowledge gap now appears harder to close than anyone expected.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Many North American companies continue to purchase processing equipment directly from China.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">However, that still poses a risk when the parts required to run the equipment still come from China. And even 1% reliance on China is still effectively 100% reliance on China when they control every step of the supply chain.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Take, for example, what happened in late 2020, when China <a href="https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-export-controls-impacts-on-businesses/">passed</a> its export control law and refused to sell rare earth processing technology to anyone it didn’t consider a friend. The West wasn’t on the list.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">That forced the facility that REalloys draws from to build everything from scratch, including its own AI-driven control systems.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The result is a facility that produces higher purity metals with greater efficiency than the conventional Chinese approach, and with fewer employees to boot.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">But that process took years, with a multidisciplinary team of mineral scientists, processing engineers, and AI specialists working together.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Starting from zero today, a competitor would need an estimated three to seven-plus years to reach comparable capability. And that assumes strong execution and available capital.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">REalloys has already cleared those hurdles.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The processing facility REalloys draws from is in its final stages of commissioning, with full commercial production expected in early 2027 — starting at approximately 400 tonnes of metal per year, scaling to approximately 600 tonnes by late 2028.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The majority of that output flows to REalloys under its exclusive offtake agreement.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">When that production comes online, REalloys will likely control access to the only North American, non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply chain in operation. Perhaps only a small share of total defense demand — but nonetheless an important one.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Where REalloys Stands</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">REalloys has secured exclusive access to the heavy rare earths — Dysprosium and Terbium — that define the high end of the magnet market. You can’t swap them out for lighter, more common alternatives.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Light rare earths go into consumer applications like washing machines and everyday electronics.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Heavy rare earths go into fighter jet engines, missile guidance systems, and advanced drone platforms. They are far scarcer, far more supply-constrained, and almost entirely controlled by China.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">This is the segment REalloys is built for — the most strategically critical, least replaceable part of the market.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Beyond its initial production, REalloys is building toward Phase 2 — targeting <a href="https://realloys.com/media/REalloys_Investor-Note_Feb2026.pdf">20,000 tonnes per year of heavy rare earth permanent magnets</a>, which would also make it the largest producer of refined Dysprosium and Terbium outside of China, feeding directly into U.S. protected markets.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Washington has taken notice as well. The Export-Import Bank has issued a <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/29/3176445/0/en/Blackboxstocks-Inc-NASDAQ-BLBX-Merger-Target-REalloys-Secures-200-Million-Letter-of-Interest-from-U-S-EXIM-Bank-to-Advance-North-America-s-First-Fully-Integrated-Mine-to-Magnet-Sup.html">$200 million letter of interest</a> to back REalloys’ supply chain buildout.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">And the company’s board members boast experience with the highest levels in government and defense industry, including: the President of GM Defense, the former four-star general and recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the former Premier of Saskatchewan, and the President of Palantir Canada.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">The Train Is Leaving the Station</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Today’s rare earth supply chain situation has been compared to a long Canadian freight train — the front engine starts moving and it takes five minutes before the back car follows.</p> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Japan positioned itself at the front of that train decades ago. REalloys is near the front now, with exclusive offtake agreements, operational facilities,