Qualcomm’s 50% Surge: Bubble Territory or Breakout Moment?

Shares of Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) have surged following their latest earnings report on Wednesday, April 29, pushing the stock into extremely overbought territory on a technical basis.

For context, Qualcomm has gained more than 50% in less than a month. This rally pushed its relative strength index (RSI) as high as 87, its highest level since 2021. By traditional measures, that’s the exact setup where investors would start to get cautious. But Qualcomm isn’t trading on traditional measures right now.

Despite a mixed headline print, with handset revenue declining year over year, the stock has moved higher on some developments that investors see as far more important. It looks like Qualcomm is finally starting to reposition itself for the next phase of growth, and that shift could justify even further gains from here.

A Mixed Quarter That Hid a Bigger Story

On the surface, Qualcomm’s results weren’t exactly perfect. Sure, they beat analyst expectations for the headline numbers. Still, handset revenue, historically one of the company’s core drivers, declined by double digits, reinforcing concerns about the smartphone market's maturity.

In isolation, that would normally be enough to weigh on the stock. However, the broader picture tells a different story. Other segments showed strength, and more importantly, management’s commentary pointed to a business that is evolving rather than stagnating.

The market’s reaction suggests that, after months of lagging behind its peers, investors are leaning into that shift too. They’re no longer focused solely on what Qualcomm has been, but on what it’s becoming.

The Data Center Opportunity Is Changing the Narrative

In terms of what that might look like, perhaps the most important development from the earnings report was Qualcomm’s expansion into the data center market. The company confirmed that it has secured a “leading hyperscaler” as a customer and will begin shipping its custom chips starting from the December quarter.

That will mark a significant milestone. Breaking into the data center space, particularly at the hyperscaler level, is notoriously difficult and represents an early but important validation of Qualcomm’s custom silicon. This matters even more for Qualcomm because it introduces an entirely new growth vector, something it has struggled to advance even as many of its peers have not.

If this strategy gains traction, the long-term upside is substantial. The data center market is significantly larger, faster growing, and more strategically important than smartphones, particularly in an AI-driven world. This is the kind of narrative shift that can sustain a rally even when the stock looks technically stretched.

Overbought, But for a Good Reason

From a technical perspective, there’s no denying that with such an elevated RSI, Qualcomm is overbought. However, the context here is critical. Stocks often become overbought when a new narrative takes hold, and investors begin to reprice the business. In those situations, traditional signals can remain stretched for longer than expected as the market adjusts to the new outlook.

There’s a very good chance that that’s exactly what’s going to happen here. Qualcomm isn’t just benefiting from short-term momentum; it’s being revalued based on a broader opportunity that investors are still getting to grips with.

This doesn’t remove the risk of some near-term profit-taking or volatility, but it does explain why the stock continues to find buyers even at elevated levels.

Analyst Support Reinforces the Upside

Backing up this theory is the fact that analyst sentiment is reinforcing the case for further gains. Recent updates following the earnings report have focused less on the near-term weakness in handset revenue and more on the longer-term opportunity tied to AI and data center expansion. The hyperscaler win, in particular, has been highlighted as a key turning point, with the potential to open the door to a much larger addressable market.

This suggests that Wall Street is also beginning to view Qualcomm through a different lens, potentially signaling that the days when Qualcomm frustrated investors and lagged its peers are coming to an end. With fresh price targets like TD Cowen’s $200, indicating there’s still a ton of room to run, there’s every reason to think the stock’s best days are ahead of it.

Weighing Up the Opportunity

All that being said, this transition is not without risk. The data center push will take time to scale, and competition in the space is intense. Execution will be critical, and there’s no guarantee that Qualcomm will achieve the level of success it is targeting.

However, the early signs are encouraging, especially given how often Qualcomm has disappointed investors in the past. For the first time in a long time, it feels like the short-to-medium-term outlook is different, and even though the stock may look overbought on a chart, the new storyline is just getting started.