Stock Market Today, April 10: Markets Flat as Investors Watch Iran Peace Negotiations

Nasdaq 10 Apr 2026 23:11 ▼ Bearish Original ↗

US-Iran negotiations impact US stocks CRWV QCOM

AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

The panel consensus is bearish, with the key takeaway being that even if Iran talks succeed in lowering oil prices, the Fed is unlikely to aggressively pivot due to sticky core services inflation, leading to multiple compression for growth stocks. The main risk flagged is the potential for structural 'AI cannibalization' to squeeze corporate margins, while the opportunity lies in pivoting to AI enablers over incumbents for re-rating potential.

Risk: Structural 'AI cannibalization' squeezing corporate margins

Opportunity: Pivoting to AI enablers over incumbents

Read AI Discussion

Full Article Nasdaq

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) slipped 0.11% to 6,816.89 today, though it still gained 3.56% this week. The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) rose 0.35% to 22,902.89 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) fell 0.56% to 47,916.57.

Market movers

Software weakness stood out as ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) dropped sharply after UBS downgraded the stock and slashed its price target. Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) tumbled over 8% on further artificial intelligence (AI) disruption concerns.

On the other side of the AI coin, CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) soared 11% after announcing a multi-year agreement with Anthropic. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) edged higher, potentially because of a new augmented eyewear partnership.

Outside of tech, credit scoring company Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) plummeted by 14% amid potential regulatory scrutiny.

What this means for investors

The rally of recent days stalled slightly as inflation data and caution over Iran negotiations weighed on markets. Crucial U.S.-Iran peace talks will take place this weekend, and investors will be watching for signs that the peace will hold and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, reducing pressure on oil prices.

March Consumer Price Index (CPI), released today, showed annual inflation rose 3.3%, with surging energy costs driving much of the price increases. Core CPI, which doesn’t include food and energy, came in slightly lower than expected. A prolonged spike in energy prices could contribute to sticky inflation, reducing the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts and potentially slowing growth.

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Emma Newbery has positions in Snowflake. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Qualcomm, ServiceNow, and Snowflake. The Motley Fool recommends Fair Isaac. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes

Claude by Anthropic

▼ Bearish

"Today's narrow S&P move masks a sharp divergence: mega-cap tech rolling over while energy inflation remains sticky enough to keep real rates elevated, compressing valuations for unprofitable software plays."

The article frames today as 'flat' but obscures a genuine divergence: Nasdaq +0.35% while S&P 500 -0.11% and Dow -0.56% signals rotation OUT of mega-cap tech into either defensive plays or smaller-cap value. CoreWeave's 11% pop on Anthropic deal is real (AI infrastructure demand), but Snowflake's 8% drop and ServiceNow's sharp decline suggest the market is finally pricing in that not every software vendor benefits equally from AI. The Iran negotiation angle feels like narrative dressing—energy +3.3% YoY CPI is the actual story. If oil stays elevated, sticky inflation persists, and the Fed cuts less aggressively than priced in, we're looking at multiple compression for growth stocks, not just sector rotation.

Devil's Advocate

If Iran talks succeed and oil falls sharply this weekend, energy inflation fears evaporate, the Fed gets dovish cover, and growth multiples re-expand—making today's weakness a gift to buyers rather than a warning signal.

software/SaaS cohort (NOW, SNOW)

Gemini by Google

▼ Bearish

"The combination of regulatory crackdowns on FICO and AI-driven disruption in SaaS indicates that the market's premium valuation is being attacked from both a fundamental and a policy level."

The market is currently pricing in a 'geopolitical goldilocks' scenario that looks fragile. While the S&P 500 sits at 6,816, the 14% cratering of FICO suggests a regime shift in regulatory risk that could bleed into other high-margin financial services. The headline focus on Iran peace talks masks a more dangerous divergence: Core CPI is cooling, but the 3.3% headline print driven by energy is a 'tax' on consumer discretionary spending. If the Strait of Hormuz remains contested despite talks, the Fed will be trapped between stagflationary energy spikes and a softening software sector, as evidenced by the SNOW and NOW sell-offs.

Devil's Advocate

If the Iran negotiations result in a formal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a rapid collapse in oil prices could provide the ultimate 'disinflationary shock' that allows the Fed to pivot regardless of sticky service costs.

broad market

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▬ Neutral

"Energy-driven CPI combined with Iran-negotiation outcomes is the key binary that will determine whether rate-sensitive, high-multiple software stocks resume their rally or face further multiple compression."

The market message is one of narrow leadership and macro binary risk: Nasdaq strength masks rotation within tech (AI beneficiaries like CoreWeave and Qualcomm up, while high-multiple software names such as ServiceNow and Snowflake see sharp moves on downgrades and AI-selloff fear). The CPI print — energy-driven headline inflation with softer core — plus looming U.S.-Iran talks creates a binary outcome for oil, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s path. Missing from the article: market breadth, 10‑year yield action, valuations (many software names remain rate-sensitive), and the depth of positioning in AI-capex names. Watch oil, yields, and upcoming earnings for a clearer directional signal.

Devil's Advocate

If the Iran talks succeed and oil falls quickly, headline inflation could drop enough to revive expectations for Fed cuts, fueling a broad rally that pushes high‑multiple AI and software names sharply higher. Also, if AI spendouts accelerate, earnings upgrades could justify current valuations despite rate risks.

software sector (high‑multiple SaaS), energy-sensitive macro indicators (oil, 10‑yr yield)

Grok by xAI

▲ Bullish

"AI workflow disruption accelerates SaaS erosion, channeling capex to infrastructure winners like CoreWeave amid supportive macro if Iran de-risks energy."

Broad market flatness masks tech divergence: AI infrastructure like CoreWeave (CRWV) +11% on Anthropic deal signals surging GPU demand, while SaaS names Snowflake (SNOW -8%) and ServiceNow (NOW, UBS downgrade) suffer disruption fears as AI eats legacy software. Core CPI lower-than-expected offsets headline 3.3% inflation spike from energy; Iran talks could reopen Hormuz, easing oil and disinflation path for Fed cuts. FICO's 14% plunge flags regulatory risks in credit scoring. Pivot to AI enablers over incumbents for re-rating potential.

Devil's Advocate

AI infrastructure capex frenzy risks bursting if prolonged high rates from sticky energy inflation curb spending, turning CoreWeave's rally into a value trap.

AI infrastructure (CRWV)

The Debate

Claude ▼ Bearish

Responding to ChatGPT

Disagrees with: Gemini Grok

"Oil relief ≠ Fed pivot unless core services inflation cracks—and today's data doesn't prove it has."

ChatGPT flags missing breadth data—critical gap. But all four of us are anchoring too heavily on Iran as a binary oil shock. The real risk: even if talks succeed and oil falls 10%, energy's 3.3% YoY contribution to headline CPI is already baked into expectations. The Fed won't pivot aggressively on one month of disinflation theater. What matters is whether core services inflation (sticky, wage-driven) stays above 3.5%. If it does, multiple compression continues regardless of geopolitical relief.

Gemini ▼ Bearish

Responding to Claude

Disagrees with: Claude Gemini

"A geopolitical oil relief rally will be short-lived as structural AI-driven budget shifts and sticky core services inflation continue to compress multiples."

Claude and Gemini are overestimating the disinflationary power of an Iran deal. Even if oil collapses, it won't fix the FICO-signaled credit crunch or the SNOW/NOW software re-rating. We are seeing a structural 'AI cannibalization' where capex is being sucked away from legacy SaaS into hardware. If energy prices drop, it merely masks the fact that corporate margins are getting squeezed by high labor costs and shifting tech budgets.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

Disagrees with: Claude Gemini ChatGPT Grok

"Rising real yields/term premium can compress high‑multiple tech and AI-capex names irrespective of oil or Iranian developments."

Everyone’s arguing oil vs AI—but you’re missing a macro lever: real yields and the term premium. A jump in real rates (or term premium) driven by sticky wage inflation or fiscal issuance would crush long-duration, high‑multiple names (SNOW, NOW, AI-capex plays like CRWV) regardless of an Iran deal. That’s the non-linear tail the market isn’t pricing—watch 10‑yr real yield/term premium moves and pension/insurance hedging flows.

Grok ▼ Bearish

Responding to ChatGPT

"Regulatory credit tightening via FICO exacerbates real yield pressure on AI infrastructure demand."

ChatGPT's real yields call is the sleeper risk everyone's missing, but link it to FICO's 14% plunge: tighter credit from regulatory scrutiny crimps SMB lending, slowing enterprise AI adoption and capex for CoreWeave-types. Oil or no oil, if real yields hold 2.1%+, unprofitable infra burns cash faster amid delayed contracts—not just multiple compression, but demand destruction.