What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on Tesla and Rivian, citing high valuations, unproven growth prospects, and significant capital expenditure with uncertain returns.
Risk: The single biggest risk flagged is Tesla's $25B capex in 2026, which may not yield the expected returns if its autonomous driving and AI initiatives fail to materialize as planned.
Opportunity: The single biggest opportunity flagged is Rivian's potential for faster profitability if it can successfully scale production and leverage its software ecosystem with Volkswagen's support.
Key Points
Tesla's first-quarter revenue grew 16% year over year.
Rivian began selling its long-awaited R2.
Both growth stocks carry meaningful risks despite their recent pullbacks.
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Two of the main electric-vehicle stocks haven't had a great start to 2026. Year to date, shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) are down about 13%, while Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) is off roughly 24% -- including a sharp drop on Friday after the smaller automaker's first-quarter earnings report.
But could sentiment toward these two stocks improve?
Now's a good time to look at both stocks, as each company has now delivered fresh first-quarter results. Additionally, with both stocks trading well below where they started the year, this is a good time to figure out which is the better growth stock to buy now.
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Tesla: margin recovery meets a heavy spending year
Tesla's first quarter looked encouraging on the surface.
The electric-car maker's first-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year to $22.4 billion -- a welcome bounce after Tesla's first-ever annual revenue decline last year. Additionally, Tesla's non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share jumped 52% to $0.41, helped by a gross margin of 21.1% -- up from 16.3% a year earlier and the company's best quarterly margin in some time.
But while Tesla's first-quarter deliveries rose 6% year over year, the company built about 50,000 more vehicles than it sold, suggesting there could be a demand issue. And the company's energy generation and storage revenue fell 12% year over year, with deployments dropping to 8.8 gigawatt hours from a record 14.2 gigawatt hours in the fourth quarter of 2025.
And the bigger surprise was in the company's outlook for its spending. Management said it now expects 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion -- up from a $20 billion guide just a quarter earlier and roughly triple the $8.6 billion the company spent in 2025.
Tesla chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja told investors during the company's first-quarterearnings callthat Tesla is in "a very big capital investment phase."
That spending is being directed toward AI compute, Cybercab, Megapack 3, the Optimus humanoid robot, and an expanding Robotaxi service, now operating in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.
There's plenty to like here, particularly the margin recovery and continued progress on autonomy.
Still, the stock trades about 190 times analysts' consensus earnings-per-share forecast for the company over the next 12 months. Additionally, investors are going to need to exercise extreme patience; CEO Elon Musk acknowledged that Robotaxi revenue won't be material this year.
Rivian: the R2 finally arrives -- with a catch
Rivian's first-quarter update arguably wasn't as upbeat as Tesla's. Rivian's first-quarter revenue grew 11% year over year to $1.38 billion, supported by 10,365 deliveries -- up 20% -- and a 49% jump in software and services revenue (much of it tied to the company's joint venture with Volkswagen Group). And Rivian's loss per share of $0.33 notably narrowed from $0.48 a year earlier.
But Rivian's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was negative $472 million, and management still expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion.
The bigger story was the start of production for the R2 -- Rivian's long-awaited midsize SUV.
"I believe the R2 will be a game changer for our customers and will be a key driver of our company's long-term growth and profitability," founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said during the company's first-quarterearnings call
But here's the catch: the R2 launched at a starting price of $57,990 -- well above the roughly $45,000 entry point Rivian had advertised for years. A more affordable version isn't expected until late this year. But even that one won't be priced near $45,000. The company isn't planning to launch a $45,000 version until "late 2027."
Combining all of this with continued cash burn, that dynamic helps explain why shares fell more than 8% on Friday following the report.
Which stock is the better buy?
Ultimately, Rivian hasn't yet proven it can build vehicles profitably at scale -- and the latest news from the company doesn't suggest this will change any time soon.
Tesla, by contrast, is generating cash and expanding its Robotaxi footprint. That said, the company expects free cash flow to be negative for the rest of this year as it ramps up its capital expenditures. But the automaker has significant liquidity -- $44.7 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
Overall, Tesla stock arguably looks like the better choice today. That said, both stocks look risky. Tesla's valuation already prices in big wins from autonomy and Optimus, while Rivian's path to profitability hinges almost entirely on a successful R2 ramp. Investors interested in either name may want to keep position sizes modest.
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Daniel Sparks has clients with positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The market is dangerously mispricing both companies by valuing them on speculative AI outcomes while ignoring the deteriorating fundamentals of their core automotive businesses."
Tesla is currently priced as a speculative AI/robotics conglomerate rather than an automaker, evidenced by a 190x forward P/E ratio that ignores the reality of its cooling EV demand. The 50,000-unit inventory build-up is a red flag for margin sustainability, regardless of the Q1 recovery. Rivian, meanwhile, is trapped in a classic 'growth-at-any-cost' death spiral; by inflating the R2 entry price to $57,990, they are abandoning their only competitive moat—affordability—to preserve cash. Both companies are essentially burning capital to chase distant, unproven revenue streams. Tesla has the balance sheet to survive this pivot, but investors are paying a massive premium for 'Optimus' dreams that remain years from meaningful monetization.
If Tesla’s massive $25 billion capex spend successfully accelerates FSD (Full Self-Driving) adoption or reduces manufacturing costs via next-gen platforms, the current valuation could be justified as a bargain for a future AI-monopoly.
"TSLA's 50k inventory buildup and >$25B capex surge reveal demand fragility and cash burn risks that its 190x forward P/E entirely overlooks."
Tesla's Q1 surface shine—16% revenue growth to $22.4B, 21.1% gross margins (up from 16.3%)—masks deeper cracks: deliveries grew just 6% YoY amid a 50k vehicle inventory buildup (~1.5 weeks' production), hinting at persistent demand weakness despite price hikes. Energy storage deployments plunged to 8.8 GWh (down 12% YoY, 38% QoQ), stalling diversification. Capex exploding to >$25B in 2026 (3x 2025's $8.6B) forecasts negative FCF, risking dilution even with $44.7B liquidity. At 190x forward EPS, TSLA's premium hinges on unproven Robotaxi/Optimus; Rivian's R2 and VW JV (driving 49% services growth) look undervalued by comparison.
Tesla's $44.7B war chest funds capex without immediate dilution, margin rebound signals pricing power restoration, and autonomy progress (Robotaxi in 3 cities) could unlock exponential non-auto revenue, validating the valuation.
"Both companies are trading on speculative AI/autonomy narratives while posting deteriorating cash dynamics—Tesla's capex tripling and Rivian's $2B annual EBITDA loss make them venture bets priced as growth stocks."
Tesla's 190x forward P/E is indefensible unless Robotaxi generates $50B+ revenue within 3–5 years—a bet the article acknowledges won't materialize this year. More concerning: the company burned $8.6B capex in 2025 but now guides $25B for 2026, yet management projects negative free cash flow through year-end despite $44.7B in liquidity. That's a 3x spending acceleration on unproven bets (Optimus, Cybercab) while energy storage deployments collapsed 38% Q/Q. Rivian's R2 pricing miss ($57,990 vs. promised $45,000) is worse—it signals either cost structure problems or demand weakness at the target segment. But the article's conclusion that Tesla is 'the better buy' ignores that both are burning cash to fund speculative moonshots. Neither deserves growth multiples.
Tesla's margin recovery to 21.1% and 52% EPS growth could signal operational leverage kicking in; if the capex cycle funds genuine autonomy breakthroughs, the 190x multiple compresses dramatically. Rivian's R2 delay to $45K pricing (late 2027) buys time to optimize manufacturing, and VW JV revenue growth of 49% shows partnership optionality.
"Near-term upside is capped by elevated capex and uncertain monetization, making both TSLA and RIVN high-risk bets despite any margin or software potential."
While the piece frames Tesla as the clearer growth story and Rivian as riskier, the full risk deck is underplayed. Tesla’s 2026 capex trajectory (> $25B) looms over free cash flow, even as gross margin recovers, so substantial profitability hinges on ambitious autonomy and Robotaxi timing that may miss. Rivian’s R2 pricing (~$57,990) highlights its cost-to-scale challenge, but VW’s scale and Rivian’s software ecosystem could unlock faster profitability if ramp and subsidies cooperate. The article omits macro risks (rates, subsidies, competition) and the risk that both names stay cash burners for longer than investors assume.
Rivian could surprise as VW-scale manufacturing and software monetization improve unit economics, and Tesla's AI programs might monetize sooner than the market expects, keeping both stocks viable even with high capex.
"Tesla's massive capex is a strategic infrastructure play for AI compute, not just standard automotive operational spending."
Grok and Claude are fixated on the $25B capex as a negative, but they miss the strategic shift: Tesla is pivoting from a hardware-volume play to a compute-infrastructure play. If Tesla successfully internalizes AI training via Dojo and massive GPU clusters, this isn't 'burning cash'—it's building the moat for the next decade. The real risk isn't the spending; it's the execution of the inference engine. If FSD doesn't reach L4, that $25B is just expensive scrap metal.
"Tesla's AI pivot capex subsidizes Nvidia more than builds a proprietary moat, given Dojo's execution shortfalls."
Gemini, your Dojo moat thesis overlooks Tesla's heavy reliance on Nvidia GPUs amid Dojo delays—Q1 earnings confirmed Dojo v1 underperforms, forcing $5B+ Nvidia buys this year alone. $25B capex isn't 'strategic infrastructure' without proven inference scaling; it's subsidized Nvidia sales. Panel misses how this exposes Tesla to supply chain chokepoints if Blackwell ramps lag.
"Tesla's capex is committed but its AI ROI is still unproven, creating a one-way downside if inference scaling fails."
Grok's Nvidia dependency point is sharp, but both miss the asymmetry: Tesla's $5B Nvidia spend is ~20% of capex; if Dojo even partially works, that ratio inverts. The real risk isn't Nvidia reliance—it's that Tesla's capex scales regardless of Dojo success, locking in the spend while inference optionality remains binary. That's the execution trap Gemini glosses over.
"Tesla's 190x multiple relies on Dojo achieving scalable inference; Nvidia supply/ramp risks could erode capex efficiency and undermine the moat."
Responding to Grok: The Nvidia-Dojo linkage remains Tesla's fragility, not its moat. Even if Dojo delivers someday, ROI hinges on scalable inference, not just GPU purchases. Dojo v1 underperformance hints at binary milestones; any ramp delay or Nvidia supply constraint could throttle margins and undermine the apparent capex efficiency. Until Dojo shows sustained, unit-economy-positive contribution, the 190x multiple stays a high-risk punt.
Panel Verdict
Consensus ReachedThe panel consensus is bearish on Tesla and Rivian, citing high valuations, unproven growth prospects, and significant capital expenditure with uncertain returns.
The single biggest opportunity flagged is Rivian's potential for faster profitability if it can successfully scale production and leverage its software ecosystem with Volkswagen's support.
The single biggest risk flagged is Tesla's $25B capex in 2026, which may not yield the expected returns if its autonomous driving and AI initiatives fail to materialize as planned.