Veteran analyst sends message to Tesla investors after Q1 miss

Tesla (TSLA) stock just took a body blow after another underwhelming Q1 delivery report, but Dan Ives isn’t flinching.
The veteran Wedbush analyst doubled down on his Buy rating for the stock, standing by a $600 price target, even after Tesla missed Wall Street's delivery and energy storage expectations.
That points to nearly 65% upside, and represents the highest rating on Wall Street for the EV giant.
For perspective, at the time of writing, Tesla stock traded at $360.59 onYahoo Finance.
That leaves the stock down $20.67 a share, or nearly 5.4%, from its $381.26 close before it released its Q1 delivery and energy deployment update.
The selloff ensued after Tesla’s Q1 delivery report, which showed 358,023 vehicle deliveries and 8.8 GWh of energy storage deployments that came in behind expectations, per Reuters.
For context, at its current size, Tesla’s one-day drop points to nearly $82.2 billion in lost market capitalization.
Even after its slide, Tesla still commands a market cap of nearly $1.35 trillion.
That said, the company’s Q1 delivery figures point to clear pressure.
Deliveries fell short of expectations for the second consecutive quarter, while energy storage deployments also missed estimates by a significant margin. For many investors, that invites fresh questions about demand and near-term growth.
Nevertheless, Ives is playing a different game.
Ives wrote that,
So instead of the quarterly sluggishness, Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s long-term transformation into an AI and robotics bellwether.
Tesla stock returns vs the S&P 500
1W: Tesla stock returned -3.10%, compared with the S&P 500 at 1.63%.
1M: Tesla stock returned -10.59%, compared with the S&P 500 at -4.34%.
6M: Tesla stock returned -17.30%, compared with the S&P 500 at -1.98%.
YTD: Tesla stock returned -19.82%, compared with the S&P 500 at -3.84%.
1Y: Tesla stock returned 27.53%, compared with the S&P 500 at 16.08%.
3Y: Tesla stock returned 73.81%, compared with the S&P 500 at 60.19%.
5Y: Tesla stock returned 63.47%, compared with the S&P 500 at 63.75%. Source: Seeking Alpha.
Tesla’s recent delivery track record
Q1 2026: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles and deployed 8.8 GWh of energy storage. Deliveries missed Tesla’s company consensus of 365,645. Deliveries rose 6.3% year-over-year.
Q4 2025: Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage. Deliveries missed Tesla’s company consensus of 422,850. Deliveries fell 15.6% year over year.
Q3 2025: Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage. Deliveries beat expectations of about 443,919. Deliveries rose 7.4% year -over-year.
Q2 2025: Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles and deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage. Deliveries missed the estimates of about 394,378. Deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year.
What Dan Ives is saying about Tesla post its dismal Q1 showing
Despite posting another underwhelming quarter, Ives is sticking with his tune on Tesla stock.
He’s doubling down on the long-term bull case, making it clear that the recent miss does nothing to break the broader thesis.
The Q1 miss wasn’t a surprise: Ives called the quarter “underwhelming,” but argued that given the softness in EV demand and Tesla’s strategic pivot, it wasn’t a big surprise.
AI and autonomy remain the core bets: Ives sees Tesla as an EV company and, more broadly, an AI-driven platform. According to him, robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD), and broader autonomy are the real drivers of its future valuation. In September last year, as per Benzinga, Ives said that Wedbush “estimates the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla”. Also, CEO Elon Musk said that, “The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale autonomous humanoid robots.”
Europe is a key bottleneck: Regulatory delays pertaining to FSD approvals continue to hold back growth in the region.
China remains a bright spot: Tesla’s deliveries in China jumped an incredible 35% year-over-year in the first couple of months of 2026, underscoring tremendous demand in a key market.
Massive investment cycle ahead:Reuters reports that Tesla plans nearly $20 billion in spending across AI infrastructure, robotaxi production, Optimus robots, and battery capacity, which will drive the next leg of expansion for its business.
Wall Street’s consensus price target for Tesla stock is $417.08, indicating 15.67% upside from the current price of $360.59. Analyst target prices range from a high of $600 to a low of $125.00.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives: $600 (66.39% upside).
Baird’s Ben Kallo: $538 (49.20% upside).
Truist’s William Stein: $400 (10.93% upside).
Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney: $375 (4.00% upside).
Wells Fargo’s Colin Langan: $125 (65.33% downside). Source: Barrons.
Investor takeaway on Tesla stock
Tesla is heading into a massive earnings test soon.
As per Seeking Alpha, earnings are due April 22 after the bell, with consensus estimates pointing to $0.40 normalized EPS, $0.25 GAAP EPS, and $22.97 billion in sales.
However, expectations are drifting lower into the print, with 5 upward EPS revisions and 8 downward revisions over the past 90 days.
On valuation, Tesla still looks expensive based on popular metrics.
The EV giant’s non-GAAP trailing P/E ratiois 215.9 compared to the sector median of 14.8, while forward non-GAAP P/E is 174.3 versus 14.6 for the sector.
Even when pitted against Tesla’s own history, the stock looks stretched.
Trailing non-GAAP P/E is 71% above its five-year average, and its forward P/E is about 50% higher.