By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel is largely bearish on Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX) obesity drug VK2735, citing potential challenges in commercialization, manufacturing scale, and payer acceptance. They also raise concerns about long-term safety and efficacy plateaus.
Risk: Long-term safety and cardiovascular outcomes, as well as potential weight loss plateaus and tolerability issues.
Opportunity: Potential advantages in patient adherence and tolerability, which could position VK2735 as a preferred 'maintenance' drug.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
The market for anti-obesity drugs seems to be at risk of calcifying into a dominant duopoly. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) split it through their GLP-1 medicines: Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Wegovy (semaglutide) for weight management, and Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Ozempic (semaglutide) for type 2 diabetes. Together they hold nearly the entire U.S. market for branded obesity and diabetes treatments. Those are the kind of conditions that may be ripe for a new entrant to disrupt the incumbents.
Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) wants to be that challenger. Its lead candidate, VK2735, has strong early data in hand, and comes as both a weekly shot and a daily pill. And because the company's market cap is just $3.5 billion, the stock is small enough that a modest win of market share could translate into an outsize return for shareholders. So let's investigate how and why this biotech could threaten Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
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VK2735 is a dual agonist of the GLP-1 and GIP receptors, meaning that it uses the same two-target approach as Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.
In one phase 2 trial, a weekly shot of VK2735 led to participants losing up to 14.7% of their weight over 13 weeks; in a separate phase 2 trial, patients taking the pill formulation saw a maximum weight loss of 12.2% over the same period. In both trials, the gastrointestinal side effects reported by patients were overwhelmingly mild or moderate. Importantly, in the injectable trial, the pace of weight loss didn't appear to be tapering at the end of the study period, leaving open the possibility that patients could lose more weight by simply staying on the treatment longer.
For context, you should also know that in a head-to-head trial, patients treated with tirzepatide lost 20.2% of their body weight over 72 weeks, whereas patients given semaglutide lost only 13.7%. So, over its 13-week study period, Viking's candidate looks competitive with the leaders. Bear in mind, though, that these are separate trials with different patients, doses, and follow-up lengths, so any comparison is suggestive rather than direct. And weight loss on these drugs tends to slow the longer people stay on them.
But while Viking could win an efficacy matchup against Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's best products on the market, it might have a harder time with the late-stage pipeline candidates that those more mature players are trying to bring to the market.
Eli Lilly's candidate retatrutide is a triple agonist, adding glucagon as a target to the GLP-1/GIP pairing. It reported that after 80 weeks of treatment in a phase 3 clinical trial, patients had lost 28.3% of their body weight, with 45% of subjects shedding at least 30% of their weight.
Similarly, clinical trial data for Novo Nordisk's candidate, CagriSema, show that patients lost about 22.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks of treatment. The company has already filed approval paperwork with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Viking's candidate is likely still competitive with both of those other programs, as its study period was much shorter. But be aware that the odds of VK2735 being approved and becoming a decisive win for the biotech are slim; it's still an underdog in the GLP-1 market it's targeting.
Viking Therapeutics could threaten the top and bottom lines of both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, if VK2735's late-stage trials confirm the data already published. If the market for weight loss medicines reaches $100 billion before the end of the decade, as some analysts predict, seizing even a 1% share of the market would lift the biotech's valuation well above its current level.
The phase 3 trials for the injectable formulation of VK2735 only finished enrolling earlier this year, and because the studies run well over a year, their top-line data won't arrive before 2027. The oral formulation's phase 3 is expected to begin around the end of this year.
If both trials replicate the earlier results, it'll signal that Viking Therapeutics' chances of becoming a player in weight loss drugs have improved from "fair" to "pretty good." If, on the other hand, the data show that VK2735 is actually better than what Lilly and Novo Nordisk can deliver with their next crop of weight-loss candidates in the pipeline, the entire situation will shift, and its odds of being a more formidable threat will rise sharply.
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Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool recommends Viking Therapeutics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Durable, market-wide approval in phase 3 is a must for Viking to meaningfully disrupt Lilly/Novo; without it, any upside is capped."
While the article leans into a disruptive narrative for Viking, the real-world path is far murkier. Phase 2 signals are encouraging but not predictive for phase 3 durability, safety, or long-term adherence—key determinants of any obesity drug’s commercial success. The injectable vs oral formats add complexity to payer acceptance and patient uptake, and head-to-head contrasts don’t translate cleanly across differing trial designs. Even if VK2735 clears later-stage hurdles, incumbents have bigger balance sheets and faster commercialization. A 1% market share in a potentially $100B+ market still requires flawless execution on pricing, access, and manufacturing, which is far from guaranteed.
Even with solid phase 2 data, phase 3 durability and safety could disappoint, and a 1% share of a $100B market still yields limited upside once commercialization and payer dynamics are baked in.
"Viking Therapeutics is primarily an acquisition target for Big Pharma, as its value lies in its clinical data as a potential exit strategy rather than its ability to scale commercial operations independently."
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is effectively a high-beta M&A play, not a commercial competitor. While the article fixates on efficacy, it ignores the brutal reality of commercialization: manufacturing scale and cold-chain distribution. Lilly and Novo are spending billions on capacity; Viking has zero infrastructure. The real value for VKTX isn't capturing 1% of a $100B market—it’s being acquired by a Big Pharma player (like Pfizer or Amgen) desperate for a late-stage GLP-1 asset to avoid obsolescence. At a $3.5B valuation, the downside is significant if phase 3 data misses, but the premium for a clean, dual-agonist asset in this therapeutic area is massive.
Viking may find itself in a 'dead zone' where its drug is effective enough to be a threat but not differentiated enough to command a takeover premium, especially as oral GLP-1s from incumbents reach the market first.
"VKTX's Phase 2 efficacy is competitive with *current* LLY/NVO products, not their superior Phase 3 pipeline candidates, making it a threat to yesterday's market share, not tomorrow's."
The article frames VKTX as a 'dark horse,' but the data actually reveal a thoroughbred also-ran. VK2735's 14.7% weight loss over 13 weeks is materially weaker than LLY's retatrutide (28.3% over 80 weeks) and even trails NVO's CagriSema (22.7% over 68 weeks). The article hand-waves this away by citing different trial lengths, but that's precisely the problem: if VKTX's efficacy plateaus (as these drugs tend to), the gap widens dramatically. At $3.5B market cap, VKTX needs >5% market share in a $100B market by 2030 just to justify current valuation—a tall order against entrenched competitors with superior Phase 3 data, manufacturing scale, and payer relationships already locked in.
VKTX's dual formulation (weekly shot + daily pill) and potentially milder GI side effects could carve out a meaningful niche even if efficacy is second-tier, especially among patients who tolerate current drugs poorly.
"VK2735's 2027 phase 3 readout leaves too much time for LLY and NVO to entrench their positions before any credible threat materializes."
The article overstates VK2735's near-term threat. Phase 3 data for the injectable arrives no earlier than 2027 after 12+ months of treatment, while Lilly's retatrutide already shows 28.3% weight loss at 80 weeks and Novo has filed CagriSema. Viking's 13-week results (14.7% injectable, 12.2% oral) come from small, non-head-to-head trials where weight loss typically slows later. With a $3.5B market cap and two large-cap rivals holding manufacturing scale, distribution, and payer leverage, even positive late-stage data may translate into only niche share rather than material disruption to LLY or NVO.
If the oral formulation delivers meaningfully better tolerability or adherence than weekly injectables in phase 3, payers could favor it and accelerate uptake faster than the long timelines suggest.
"Long-term safety and CV outcomes, not 13-week efficacy or timing, will largely determine VKTX's market upside."
Your timeline assumes late-stage data will shift the market, but the unseen risk is long-term safety and cardiovascular outcomes. Regulators and payers will demand durable safety signals and possibly a CV benefit for obesity drugs to unlock broad reimbursement; weight loss plateaus and tolerability matter less if a rare but serious GI/CV event emerges. A 2027 Phase 3 readout may still fail to translate into material market impact.
"Superior tolerability profiles in obesity drugs often drive higher long-term adherence and market share than raw efficacy percentages alone."
Claude and Grok are fixating on efficacy percentages that ignore the 'tolerability moat.' If VK2735 maintains its current side-effect profile, it doesn't need to beat retatrutide on raw weight loss to win; it wins on patient adherence. Most patients drop off GLP-1s due to gastrointestinal distress. If Viking’s dual-agonist shows a superior safety-to-efficacy ratio, it becomes the preferred 'maintenance' drug, which is a massive, recurring revenue stream that analysts are currently pricing as a binary failure.
"Superior tolerability is a viable thesis only if Viking has actively suppressed safety data—otherwise, parity on side effects + inferior efficacy = niche positioning, not moat."
Gemini's tolerability moat is plausible but unproven. The article provides zero data on GI side-effect rates for VK2735 versus competitors—we're extrapolating from phase 2 silence. More critically: if tolerability were VK2735's edge, Viking would've led with comparative safety data. Their silence suggests parity or worse. Adherence advantages only matter if efficacy clears a minimum threshold; at 14.7% injectable, that threshold is uncertain.
"Phase 2 safety gaps do not rule out an adherence-driven reimbursement edge for the oral formulation."
Claude assumes phase 2 silence on GI events signals parity or worse, but these trials prioritize efficacy signals first while class-wide side effects surface in larger, longer studies. If Viking's oral version cuts dropouts enough to clear payer CV-safety bars that ChatGPT flagged, the maintenance niche remains open even with 14.7% peak loss and 2027 readouts.
The panel is largely bearish on Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX) obesity drug VK2735, citing potential challenges in commercialization, manufacturing scale, and payer acceptance. They also raise concerns about long-term safety and efficacy plateaus.
Potential advantages in patient adherence and tolerability, which could position VK2735 as a preferred 'maintenance' drug.
Long-term safety and cardiovascular outcomes, as well as potential weight loss plateaus and tolerability issues.