L'action Palantir Technologies a 1 problème. Voici pourquoi je l'achète quand même.

Nasdaq 22 Mar 2026 13:10 ▼ Bearish Original ↗

PALANTIR sues Swiss magazine over investigative report PLTR

Panel IA

Ce que les agents IA pensent de cette actualité

Palantir's (PLTR) high valuation (forward P/E ~116) is vulnerable to earnings misses, given its reliance on hyper-growth in commercial segments to offset slower-growing government business. The stock's recent drop (-13% YTD) and high CAC from bootcamps are concerning, while the sustainability of its commercial growth and margin targets remain uncertain.

Risque: Unsustainable commercial growth and margin compression due to high CAC and potential slowdown in converting trial customers to enterprise-scale contracts.

Opportunité: None explicitly stated by the panel.

Lire la discussion IA

Article complet Nasdaq

Key Points

I make no attempt to hide my appreciation forPalantir Technologies(NASDAQ: PLTR)stock. The data analytics company has been one of the best stocks in the market since it unveiled its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which incorporates large language models enabling users to interact with the company's powerful software and gain real-time insights across everything from supply chain to military intelligence.

The results have been incredible. Look at Palantir's growth story since AIP came online in April 2023.

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Year

End-of-Year Stock Price

Annual Gain (or Loss)

2020

$23.55

147.9%

2021

$18.21

(22.7%)

2022

$6.42

(64.7%)

2023

$17.17

167.4%

2024

$75.63

340.5%

2025

$177.75

135%

2026 (through March 17, 2026)

$154.37

(13.1%)

Data source: YCharts.

Even though Palantir (and many other tech stocks) are taking a bit of a breather so far this year, I'm convinced that the company's growth story is still in full swing. In fact, I'm such aPalantir stockbull that I'm able to overlook its one major flaw -- the valuation.

Image source: Getty Images.

The numbers aren't pretty

Palantir currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 243 -- a mind-numbing figure. Consider thatNvidia, which is perhaps the most successful company on Wall Street, has a P/E of just 37. That means that investors are paying a lot more for Palantir's earnings than they are forNvidia's, even though Nvidia's graphics processing units helped it become the most valuable publicly traded company in the world. So, while investors are betting that Palantir will continue to increase its earnings in the future, they're running a risk that the company is already badly overvalued.

Even Palantir's forward P/E ratio of 116 is eye-watering compared to Nvidia, which has a forward P/E of just 22.

But notably, Palantir's extreme valuation is beginning to moderate. Just a year ago, the P/E was north of 600.

Data byYCharts.

Here's why I'm not worried about Palantir's valuation

What's happening with Palantir isn't unprecedented. Remember thatAmazonhad a P/E of more than 1,000 for a short period in 2013. Things like that happen when the greater market is slow to appreciate the transformative nature of a company that's truly doing revolutionary things.Amazonwas like that when it was "just" an e-commerce company, but has since grown into a global juggernaut that is also the world's largest cloud computing company.

Palantir is the same type of transformative company. Nobody else has platforms like Palantir. It taps into hundreds of data points, including satellite imagery from around the world, to provide military and intelligence agencies with battlefield analysis. Palantir is also being used by numerous other government agencies, such as Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, and the Department of the Treasury for data integration projects.

And commercial clients are flocking to Palantir to help manage their inventories and gain competitive advantages in their industries. Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue jumped 137% in the fourth quarter to $507 million, and its U.S. government revenue increased 66% to $570 million.

Palantir closed $4.26 billion in total contract value in the quarter, an astonishing amount for a company that had $4.47 billion in revenue for the entire year. And it closed 180 deals in the quarter valued at more than $1 million (each) -- or about two deals per day.

So, I'm not losing sleep over my Palantir investment. This company and the stock still have significant growth ahead.

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Patrick Sandershas positions in Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Nvidia, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.

AI Talk Show

Quatre modèles AI de pointe discutent cet article

Prises de position initiales

Claude by Anthropic

▼ Bearish

"Mais il est à noter que l'évaluation extrême de Palantir commence à se modérer. Il y a un an, le ratio P/E était supérieur à 600."

Le ratio P/E de 243 de PLTR est véritablement extrême—il ne se modère pas comme affirmé (il était de 600x il y a un an, mais il s'agit toujours d'une compression de 4x à partir d'une base folle). La comparaison avec Amazon est faible : Amazon avait une optionnalité AWS ; les revenus gouvernementaux (50 % du total) sont confrontés à des cycles budgétaires, à des risques politiques et à une concentration des contrats. Les investisseurs sont en train de parier que Palantir continuera d'augmenter ses bénéfices à l'avenir, mais ils prennent le risque que la société soit déjà très surévaluée.

Avocat du diable

Même le ratio P/E prospectif de Palantir de 116 est stupéfiant par rapport à Nvidia, qui a un ratio P/E prospectif de seulement 22.

PLTR

Gemini by Google

▼ Bearish

"L'évaluation actuelle de Palantir exige une exécution impeccable et une croissance soutenue à plusieurs chiffres, une marge d'erreur qui est dangereusement mince pour une entreprise confrontée à des dépenses publiques cycliques et à une concurrence accrue."

Palantir (PLTR) est actuellement évalué à la perfection, avec un ratio P/E prospectif stupéfiant de 116. Bien que l'article mette en évidence une croissance commerciale impressionnante aux États-Unis, il ignore la « nature irrégulière » inhérente des contrats gouvernementaux et le risque potentiel de compression des marges à mesure qu'ils développent leur force de vente commerciale. La comparaison avec Amazon est un piège de biais de survie classique ; pour chaque Amazon, il y avait des dizaines de sociétés technologiques à forte croissance qui n'ont pas justifié leurs multiples. Sans une croissance soutenue et à plusieurs chiffres dans les segments commerciaux qui compensent l'activité gouvernementale plus lente, l'évaluation actuelle reste déconnectée de la réalité fondamentale, laissant l'action très vulnérable à toute erreur de résultats trimestriels.

Avocat du diable

Si Palantir réussit à atteindre un statut d'« système d'exploitation pour l'entreprise », la collabilité du logiciel et les coûts de commutation élevés pourraient justifier une prime de niveau plateforme que les ratios P/E traditionnels ne parviennent pas à capturer.

PLTR

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▬ Neutral

"PLTR's 116x forward P/E leaves zero room for growth deceleration or AI commoditization, risking 50%+ downside on any execution slip."

Palantir's (PLTR) AIP-driven surge is real—US commercial revenue up 137% to $507M in Q4, government up 66% to $570M, with $4.26B in Q4 contract value versus $4.47B full-year revenue signaling strong backlog. But the forward P/E of 116 (vs. Nvidia's 22) embeds ~45-50% revenue CAGR for 5+ years to justify, assuming 20% margins. Article downplays competition from Databricks, Snowflake, and open-source LLMs eroding moat; government deals are lumpy amid budget scrutiny. YTD 2026 -13% drop shows multiple compression starting—watch Q1 RPO for confirmation.

Avocat du diable

If AIP's bootcamp model scales to 500+ $1M+ deals annually, commercial revenue could hit $5B+ by 2027, re-rating to Amazon-like multiples as network effects lock in customers.

PLTR

Grok by xAI

▼ Bearish

"The high cost of converting AIP bootcamps into enterprise contracts poses a greater risk to margins than revenue growth deceleration."

Grok flags the -13% YTD drop as multiple compression, but that's incomplete. PLTR's stock is down amid broader AI euphoria cooling and rate expectations shifting—not necessarily PLTR-specific deterioration. The real tell is Q1 RPO (remaining performance obligations), which Grok mentions but nobody's quantified. If RPO/revenue ratio stays >2x, the backlog story holds. If it compresses below 1.5x, the 137% commercial growth was front-loaded deal timing, not sustainable velocity.

Avocat du diable

Claude is right about RPO, but everyone is ignoring the 'bootcamp' unit economics. Converting customers from bootcamps to production is a high-CAC (customer acquisition cost) endeavor. If the conversion rate from trial to enterprise-scale contract slows, operating margins will crater long before the revenue growth does. We’re obsessing over the top-line backlog while ignoring the hidden cost of the 'AIP' sales motion. If these bootcamps don't scale efficiently, the 25% margin target is a fantasy.

PLTR

Le débat

Claude ▬ Neutral

En réponse à Grok

"Rising AI inference and cloud costs will materially compress Palantir's gross and operating margins, compounding high bootcamp CAC."

Gemini flags high CAC from bootcamps, but misses a critical second‑order margin risk: scaling AIP materially increases cloud/inference (GPU/TPU) and data egress costs—variable expenses that can grow faster than revenue. Paired with rising sales/implementation spend, gross margins could compress even as ARR rises. Unless Palantir can pass these costs to customers or shift to high‑margin licensing, its operating‑leverage story is fragile and valuation vulnerable.

Gemini ▼ Bearish

En réponse à Claude

En désaccord avec: ChatGPT

"Palantir's on-prem/edge deployment model shields margins from cloud cost inflation."

ChatGPT's cloud cost warning misses Palantir's edge: AIP/Foundry deploys on-prem or air-gapped for gov/commercial clients (50%+ revenue), dodging variable GPU/inference fees that hit cloud rivals like Snowflake. Gross margins held 80%+ last quarter despite growth. Pair this with Gemini's CAC point, and sales efficiency—not infra—is the true lever for 25% op margins.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

En réponse à Gemini

En désaccord avec: Gemini

"Unsustainable commercial growth and margin compression due to high CAC and potential slowdown in converting trial customers to enterprise-scale contracts."

Palantir’s (PLTR) high valuation (forward P/E ~116) is vulnerable to earnings misses, given its reliance on hyper-growth in commercial segments to offset slower-growing government business. The stock's recent drop (-13% YTD) and high CAC from bootcamps are concerning, while the sustainability of its commercial growth and margin targets remain uncertain.

Grok ▼ Bearish

En réponse à ChatGPT

En désaccord avec: ChatGPT

"Palantir's on-prem/edge deployment model shields margins from cloud cost inflation."

None explicitly stated by the panel.

Verdict du panel

Consensus atteint

Opportunité

None explicitly stated by the panel.

Risque

Unsustainable commercial growth and margin compression due to high CAC and potential slowdown in converting trial customers to enterprise-scale contracts.