Futures rimbalzano dalle vendite overnight per negoziare ai massimi della sessione in mezzo al costante flusso di notizie sull'Iran.

Futures Rebound From Overnight Selling To Trade At Session Highs Amid Constant Iran Newsflow

Stock futures have reversed overnight losses and traded at session high, just above the flatline, despite diesel topping $5 a gallon - the highest since 2022 - with Iran expanding attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East and Israel targeting military / security leadership, reportedly killing Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures were still red, with most big tech stocks edging lower except Nvidia after its bullish sales outlook. KOSPI leading overseas up 163bps but other parts of Asia strong as well with TWSE up 148 and Brazil bouncing +125bps. China property the notable laggard down 85bps. Cyclicals rallying in Europe with autos and chemicals squeezing higher. Large miss in German ZEW expectations with current data point more or less in line. Australia’s central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday as the conflict in Iran worsened existing concerns around an acceleration in inflation and the country’s reliance on oil imports.  Energy prices are off their highs as markets analyze the outcome of a partial opening of SoH, even as forecasts for production curtailments to grow from ~6.5mm bpd (Mar 13) to ~12mm bpd (Mar 20). US transport fuels continue to surge. For investors, growth optimism is tanking, inflation expectations are jumping, and cash levels are surging, according to Bank of America. WTI was back near $100 after an Iraqi oil field and key Emirati port were targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. Trump reiterated his appeals for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, which has still only seen a trickle of vessels pass through. He also delayed a summit with China for about a month. Bond yields are flat to up 1bp, the USD is mixed though the JPM desk flows remain defensive via USD buying. US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and February pending home sales (10am) 

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares edge higher after its GTC event, however other Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.2%, Tesla -0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%, Meta -0.3%, Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%)

Coherent and Lumentum, developers of data center optical components, fall after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comments that copper wires remain important in server racks. Coherent (COHR) falls 4% and Lumentum (LITE) declines 4%.
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) rises 4% after issuing a more optimistic sales target for the first quarter after bookings by leisure and corporate customers accelerated into March.
DraftKings (DKNG) slips 1% after Argus Research stepped away from its buy rating, citing aggressive competition from prediction markets.
Janus Henderson Group (JHG) climbs 2% after Victory Capital Holdings Inc. submitted an improved proposal to acquire the company.
Lemonade (LMND) rises 6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to overweight, noting that the insurer is an early stage winner as autonomous vehicles transform the auto insurance industry.
Semtech (SMTC) falls about 2% after the chipmaker provided an outlook that failed to extend the stock’s 2026 rally.
Uber (UBER) gains 3% after the rideshare firm and Nvidia said they will expand their autonomous vehicle partnership to launch a global fleet of Nvidia software-driven autonomous vehicles across 28 cities globally by 2028.
In other corporate news, Finland’s Kone is said to be in talks to acquire TK Elevator, the Advent and Cinven owned elevator maker that’s been planning an IPO. Uber expanded its autonomous vehicle partnership with Nvidia to launch a global fleet of Nvidia software-driven robotaxis across 28 cities globally by 2028.

In the latest Iran war news, Israel said it killed Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit. Iran ramped up attacks on energy assets around the Persian Gulf, setting a massive UAE gas field ablaze. The conflict “is shifting into a prolonged war of attrition, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium in oil rather than a brief price spike,” according to Fidelity’s global head of macro and strategic asset allocation, Salman Ahmed. The prospect of a longer conflict has led the market to price out rate cuts, though there are some dissenters: Morgan Stanley is sticking with its forecast for a cut in June and another reduction in September.

Oil has risen more than 40% since the war started. In the latest developments, operations were suspended at the Shah field in the United Arab Emirates, while an Iraqi oil field and an Emirati port were also targeted by drones and missiles. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump renewed calls for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to expand strikes to Iranian oil infrastructure.

Fund managers in BofA’s survey, meanwhile, have turned bearish due to the the war, as well as concerns over private credit. Cash levels jumped from 3.4% last month to 4.3% in March, the biggest increase since the pandemic, Michael Hartnett wrote. Still, there’s no equity capitulation yet, and positioning hasn’t reached the uber-bearish levels seen in other recent shocks like April’s tariff turmoil and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“The longer the oil price stays above $100 per barrel, the louder the alarm bells for the market over inflation risks,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

Amid the geopolitical chaos, AI news has become a market sideshow at the moment, with Nvidia shares having a muted reaction to CEO Jensen Huang’s presentation of new products and forecast for $1 trillion in sales through 2027. Elsewhere, Samsung unveiled its next-generation AI chip HBM4E, while South Korean conglomerate SK Group said that a global shortage of memory chips is likely to persist another four to five years.

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85%, the second increase this year.

“The bias is certainly that central banks will be more hawkish that the markets wants them to be,” said Andrew Chorlton, chief investment officer of fixed income at M&G Investment Managers. “We don’t expect anyone else to raise rates but no one is going to cut rates and any remaining expectations of rate cuts are slowly diminishing.”

European stocks and bonds rally and US assets lag behind, while oil rises and US diesel prices hit the highest since 2022. Stoxx 600 up  by 0.3%- led by utilities and energy stocks - headed for its first back-to-back gain since the war began. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday: 

Sartorius shares gain as much as 5.9% after the German lab equipment maker provided medium-term targets which Morgan Stanley analysts called a “clear positive.”
Fraport shares climb as much as 4.7%, the most since November, after the German airport operator encouraged investors by reporting positive free cash flow.
Springer Nature shares jump as much as 9.6%, the most in almost a year, after the German publishing group reported results and gave guidance for 2026 including 5%-6% revenue growth.
Wickes shares rise as much as 8.6%, the most in 10 months, as full-year sales and profit beat analysts’ forecasts and the DIY retailer unveils a £10 million ($13.3 million) buyback.
Allegro shares fall as much as 4.1% as InPost’s plan to launch an AI shopping assistant was seen posing a competitive thread to online market places.
Indra Sistemas shares fall as much as 7.5% after El Confidencial reports that the government is planning to ask Chairman Ángel Escribano to step down from the defense firm.
Asian stocks rose, poised for a second day of gains, as tech shares advanced with help from an upbeat Nvidia outlook while investors continued to eye crude prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.4% Tuesday, with Samsung and TSMC among the biggest contributors after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled new products at a company event. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6%, while benchmarks also climbed in Taiwan, Hong Kong and most of Southeast Asia. Monday’s tech-led rebound in the US provided relief, along with continued optimism over the central role played by Asian companies in the ongoing AI buildout. Nevertheless, concerns remain about the impact of rising energy costs on inflation. Oil climbed as Iran stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.

“I would not read this as investors suddenly becoming comfortable with risk,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “The rally can continue through the week if oil stays contained and central banks do not sound more hawkish, but conviction is still fragile.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat after rising 0.2% the previous day. AUD/USD was down 0.2% to 0.7056 after the Reserve Bank of Australia voted five-to-four in favor of raising its interest rate, potentially signaling a less hawkish path ahead

In rates, Treasuries are slightly cheaper vs Monday’s closing levels, underperforming European counterparts, which are higher despite oil price rebound after Germany’s March ZEW expectations gauge missed estimates.  US yields are about 1bp cheaper on the day with the curve marginally steeper. 10-year is near 4.225%, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp and 4bp respectively.  European bonds higher, led by the UK. German investor outlook slumped on risks from the Iran war.  Treasuries face duration supply Tuesday in the form of 20-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time and another heavy corporate new-issue slate expected. Treasury’s $13 billion 20-year bond reopening has WI yield around 4.855%, ~19bp cheaper than last month’s weak auction, which tailed by 2bps.  IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names so far; eight borrowers raised a total of nearly $30 billion on Monday. Issuers paid about 8bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.6 times covered. Five to seven issuers stood down and may try again Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement

In commodities, Crude bouncing in commodities with WTI up 270bps to $96, European gas up similarly; Brent crude is around $103 a barrel after Iran struck energy facilities around the Persian Gulf; US diesel prices are the highest since 2022. Gold little changed around $5,000/oz and Bitcoin dipping slightly further below $74,000. 

US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and February pending home sales (10am). No significant earnings are expected before the market open. Earnings from Lululemon and Docusign follow later in the day. Nvidia’s GTC AI conference continues in San Jose. Conferences include BofA global industrials (London), Piper Sandler energy (Las Vegas) and JPMorgan industrials (Washington).

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
DAX +0.2%
CAC 40 +0.5%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.22%
VIX +0.1 points at 23.65
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed at 1207.96
euro +0.2% at $1.1523
WTI crude +2.8% at $96.14/barrel
Top Overnight News

Israel said it killed Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit. Iran ramped up attacks on energy assets around the Persian Gulf, setting a massive UAE gas field ablaze. BBG
Iraq ‌said it’s in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the ⁠Strait of Hormuz after the OPEC nation was forced to reduce oil output to a quarter. BBG
President Donald Trump has asked America’s NATO allies to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz — and their response has not exactly been enthusiastic. “This is not our war, we have not started it,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters Monday. That appeared to sum up the mood among U.S. allies, with leaders from Berlin to London expressing reservations about Trump’s demands and indicating they had no immediate plans to provide military support to reopen the crucial waterway. NBC
Trump announces and signs executive orders to bring more community banks back into the mortgage business and to lower construction costs for building more affordable homes.
Despite more than two weeks of relentless airstrikes, U.S. intelligence assessments say, Iran’s regime likely will remain in place for now, weakened but more hard-line, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces exerting greater control. WaPo
China said Tuesday it remains “in communication” with the United States over a widely anticipated visit by President Donald Trump to Beijing, after Trump said he had requested a delay of about a month due to the ongoing war with Iran. SCMP
The PBOC is set to surpass the ECB as the world’s largest central bank this month, as measured by respective balance sheets in dollar terms. BBG
The IMF raised concerns about Ukraine’s ability to keep receiving aid from its $8.1 billion package as lawmakers stall on measures to unlock the financing, its representative said. BBG
Australia’s central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday as the conflict in Iran worsened existing concerns around an acceleration in inflation and the country’s reliance on oil imports. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85%, the second increase this year. WSJ
BYD and Hyundai were among Asian auto stocks that rallied after announcing plans to work with Nvidia on autonomous vehicle development. BBG
Central Banks

RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10%, as expected, with the decision made by a majority decision (5-4 vote split). Five members voted for a 25bps hike and four voted to leave the Cash Rate unchanged. Material risk inflation will stay above target for longer. Board will do what’s necessary to deliver price and jobs goals. Short-term inflation expectations have already risen. The conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions and has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Will be attentive to data, evolving outlook, and risks in decisions. Wide range of data over recent months confirmed inflationary pressures picked up materially in H2 2025.
RBA Governor Bullock said rise in oil prices is not the reason for the rate increase and that inflation was already too high, adds risks to inflation are to the upside and cash rate was not high enough to bring inflation back to the target. All members agreed inflation was too high, board agreed inflation was too high. Had a very robust meeting. Members that voted to hold, voted in a hawkish sense. Discussion was about timing, not the direction of policy and hike. Difference was timing and those who voted against, still felt the need for an eventual rate increase. Today's hike does not say anything about the forward path, and the forward path for rates is uncertain.
BoJ Governor Ueda said price trend is rising gradually and underlying inflation is gradually accelerating towards the 2% target. Will implement appropriate policy to maintain stable prices. Will guide monetary policy suitably to steadily and durably achieve the 2% price target. Expect underlying inflation to approach the target in the latter half of fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2027. Reaffirmed stance that it will act flexibly in exceptional situations when JGB yields suddenly rise. BoJ to conduct bond operations flexibly in exceptional cases.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/17/2026 - 08:35