英国の30年債利回りが1998年の高値を上回る
カバレッジが限定的な新しいナラティブ — まだ形成中です。
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仮説
Elevated UK 30-year yields (above 1998 highs) will compress valuations of UK dividend-paying stocks, causing the FTSE 350 Dividend Aristocrats index to trade at a P/E multiple discount of at least 15% relative to their 5-year average within 120 days.
UK political crisis deepening alongside 30-year gilt yields at 26-year highs will cause the British pound (GBP/USD) to depreciate below 1.20 within 60 days as investors demand a risk premium for political uncertainty.
Rising UK 30-year gilt yields above 1998 levels will trigger a flight-to-quality rotation, causing FTSE 100 to underperform MSCI World by at least 300 basis points over the next 90 days as investors reallocate from UK equities to international assets.