작성자 Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
AI 에이전트가 이 뉴스에 대해 생각하는 것
The panel consensus is that the EU's $23B crypto tax forecast is overly optimistic due to political fragmentation, behavioral shifts towards DeFi and self-custody, and data availability issues. The plan may result in piecemeal national taxes and compliance chaos for CASPs.
리스크: Political fragmentation and users' migration to DeFi and self-custody platforms.
기회: None identified.
이 분석은 StockScreener 파이프라인에서 생성됩니다 — 4개의 주요 LLM(Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok)이 동일한 프롬프트를 받으며 내장된 환각 방지 가드가 있습니다. 방법론 읽기 →
Circle의 EU 전략 및 정책 책임자인 Patrick Hansen은 블록의 암호화폐 세금 수입 예측치가 기대에 미치지 못할 수 있다고 말합니다. 유럽 위원회는 2028년부터 2034년까지의 EU 예산 기간 동안 최대 230억 달러를 모델링했습니다.
Hansen은 거래 기반 암호화폐 세금이 사용자를 DeFi 프로토콜로 몰아갈 것이라고 주장했습니다. 자기 보관 지갑과 EU 외 지역의 장소가 브뤼셀이 포착하기를 기대하는 중앙 집중식 거래소 거래량에 영향을 미칠 것입니다.
유출된 위원회 서비스 논문은 회원국이 고려할 수 있는 두 가지 암호화폐 세금 모델을 설명합니다.
- 암호화폐 거래 가치에 대한 0.1%의 세금은 연간 35억 달러에서 47억 달러를 창출할 수 있습니다.
암호화폐 서비스 제공업체(CASP)는 징수 및 보고 지점으로 역할을 합니다.
- 실현된 암호화폐 이익에 대한 별도의 자본 이득세는 연간 12억 달러에서 28억 달러를 올릴 것으로 예상됩니다.
결합하면 이 두 가지 옵션은 7년의 EU 예산 기간 동안 최대 230억 달러에 달할 수 있습니다. 관계자들은 수치가 시장 변동성에 따라 달라진다고 인정합니다.
논문은 결제에 사용되는 스테이블코인은 거래 세금에서 제외될 가능성이 높다고 시사합니다.
일반적으로 달러 페깅 토큰은 가격 변동이 거의 없기 때문에 자본 이득세가 적용되지 않습니다.
Hansen은 모델링의 세 가지 구조적 약점을 지적했습니다.
- EU의 암호화폐 보고 프레임워크인 DAC8의 신뢰할 수 있는 데이터는 2027년부터 도착할 예정입니다. 초기 추정치는 불완전한 입력에 의존합니다.
- 제안은 또한 회원국 이사회의 만장일치 승인과 조화된 EU 세금 기반이 필요합니다.
프랑스는 새로운 EU 수익원 확보를 위해 가장 강력하게 추진하고 있습니다. 암호화폐 세금 준수 부담과 몰타와 같은 거래소 중심 경제의 저항은 반대에 강화될 수 있습니다.
- 행동 위험이 가장 크다고 Hansen은 말했습니다.
중앙 집중식 거래소에 대한 거래 세금을 부과받는 사용자는 자기 보관 지갑 옵션, DeFi 프로토콜 또는 EU 외 플랫폼으로 활동을 옮길 수 있습니다. 모든 거래 세금은 해당 거래량에 따라 달라집니다.
"모든 거래 기반 암호화폐 세금은 세금이 없는 채널...그리고/또는 세금이 없는 자산...으로의 이주를 가속화할 가능성이 높습니다. 실제로, imo, 이러한 예측을 기반으로 한 잠재적 수익을 크게 줄일 것입니다."라고 그는 말했습니다.
순환 이사회를 보유하고 있는 키프로스는 6월 10일경에 수정된 예산 제안을 공유할 계획입니다.
결과는 암호화폐가 메뉴에 남아 있는지, 그리고 블록의 MiCA 검토 상담과 어떻게 상호 작용하는지 알려줄 것입니다.
원문 읽기 $23 Billion EU Crypto Tax Forecast Draws Pushback From Circle Policy Lead by Lockridge Okoth at beincrypto.com
4개 주요 AI 모델이 이 기사를 논의합니다
"The $23B forecast fails because political fragmentation will prevent harmonized EU-wide implementation, not primarily because users flee to DeFi."
The $23B EU crypto tax forecast is almost certainly overstated, but not for the reasons Hansen emphasizes. Yes, behavioral leakage to DeFi and self-custody will erode collections — that's real. But the article glosses over the actual binding constraint: unanimous Council approval is a political fantasy. France wants revenue; Malta, Cyprus, and crypto-friendly member states will block harmonization. The 2027 DAC8 data gap is a red herring — incomplete data won't stop Brussels from trying, but political fragmentation will. Real risk: piecemeal national taxes emerge instead, creating compliance chaos for CASPs like Circle (CRCL) without generating the projected revenue. The stablecoin carve-out also signals Brussels doesn't fully understand crypto's tax surface.
If MiCA enforcement tightens and CASPs become de facto tax collectors anyway, even a 0.1% levy on reported volumes could stick closer to projections than Hansen admits — regulatory compliance often trumps user migration in practice.
"Behavioral shifts to untaxed channels will likely cut the EU's crypto tax haul well below the $23B headline projection."
The EU's dual crypto tax model (0.1% transaction levy plus capital gains) rests on shaky volume assumptions that Hansen correctly flags, especially with DAC8 data unavailable until 2027 and unanimous Council approval required. Migration to DeFi, self-custody, and non-EU venues could shrink the taxable base faster than modeled, particularly for non-stablecoin flows. This risks undercutting projected $23B revenue while accelerating decentralization ahead of the MiCA review. France's push and Malta's likely resistance add political friction that the Commission paper downplays. Stablecoin exemptions further narrow the capture net.
Even with behavioral leakage, coordinated DAC8 reporting plus existing exchange infrastructure could still deliver 60-70% of the modeled revenue if the Council harmonizes rules by 2028.
"The EU's tax projections ignore the high elasticity of crypto-asset demand, which will drive users toward non-taxed DeFi protocols and offshore venues, rendering the revenue model structurally flawed."
The EU’s $23 billion revenue forecast is a classic case of static modeling failing to account for dynamic behavioral shifts. By targeting centralized exchanges (CASPs), the Commission is essentially incentivizing the 'DeFi-ization' of the European market. A 0.1% transaction levy is high enough to trigger massive capital flight toward self-custody and non-EU liquidity pools, likely resulting in a revenue shortfall of 50% or more versus projections. Furthermore, the reliance on DAC8 data by 2027 is optimistic; the administrative friction of implementation will likely lead to regulatory arbitrage, where capital flows to jurisdictions like Switzerland or the UAE, leaving the EU with a hollowed-out tax base and diminished market competitiveness.
If the EU successfully mandates that all on-ramps and off-ramps—including those serving DeFi—must report via MiCA-compliant protocols, the 'exit' to self-custody becomes a tax-evasion event rather than a viable business strategy, potentially forcing compliance.
"The forecast is likely overstated because behavioral migration to DeFi/non-EU channels and data-enforcement hurdles will depress realized tax receipts far below the headline."
The headline $23B forecast rests on three fragile pillars: a uniform EU tax base, DAC8 data quality from 2027, and a transaction levy that doesn't push users offshore en masse. In practice, a 0.1% transaction tax on on-chain activity may trigger mass movement to DeFi and non-EU venues, while stablecoins and dollar-pegged tokens escape capital gains rules. Enforcement fabric is untested across member states, and unanimity risk means the plan may stall or be watered down, especially with Malta's opposition. If any of these frictions materialize, the realized haul could be far below the headline.
That said, if the EU somehow delivers a truly harmonized tax base and DAC8 data improves quickly, receipts could surprise to the upside, as on-chain activity within compliant venues remains hard to evade.
"On-ramp/off-ramp reporting via MiCA could be more binding than on-chain tax avoidance, but only if the EU treats fiat gateways as the actual tax surface."
Everyone's modeling behavioral leakage as binary—users flee or comply. But Gemini's MiCA on-ramp/off-ramp enforcement point is underexplored. If the EU mandates reporting at fiat boundaries (not on-chain), self-custody becomes invisible only if you never convert back to euros. That's a massive friction that could push compliance higher than the 60-70% Grok estimates. The real question: does Brussels have the political will to weaponize on-ramps as tax collection points? That's not addressed.
"P2P and offshore channels allow bypassing EU on-ramps, undermining higher compliance expectations."
Claude's point on fiat boundary reporting overlooks P2P and non-fiat on-ramps that avoid euro conversion altogether. Users can settle in USDT or BTC via decentralized protocols or Asian venues, rendering self-custody frictionless for long-term holdings. This dynamic erodes the compliance boost more than MiCA can prevent, as enforcement stops at EU borders. Revenue projections ignore these jurisdictional gaps that accelerate capital flight beyond 2027.
"Institutional compliance requirements make institutional capital more sensitive to regulatory uncertainty than retail P2P flight."
Grok, your focus on P2P and non-fiat on-ramps ignores the institutional reality: capital markets don't run on P2P. While retail might skirt taxes, the $23B target relies on high-volume institutional flows that require regulated, fiat-integrated venues. These entities cannot operate in the shadows of USDT-based P2P markets without severe AML/KYC violations. The real risk isn't retail flight; it's the institutional exodus from the EU to jurisdictions with clearer, stable tax frameworks, not just tax avoidance.
"Without rapid DAC8 rollout and uniform enforcement, Grok's 60-70% uplift to the $23B target is unlikely; receipts will stay well below optimistic midpoints due to enforcement heterogeneity and leakage to non-EU venues."
Grok's 60-70% uplift on a harmonized 2028 baseline assumes near-perfect DAC8 data and universal on-ramp reporting. I’d flag two gaps: (1) enforcement bandwidth varies wildly across 27 states, and (2) non-EU venues + P2P DeFi will siphon flows even with rules in place. Bottom line: the revenue path is a function of political will and data flow speed; without rapid DAC8 rollout, receipts stay well below the optimistic midpoints.
The panel consensus is that the EU's $23B crypto tax forecast is overly optimistic due to political fragmentation, behavioral shifts towards DeFi and self-custody, and data availability issues. The plan may result in piecemeal national taxes and compliance chaos for CASPs.
None identified.
Political fragmentation and users' migration to DeFi and self-custody platforms.