작성자 Maksym Misichenko · ZeroHedge ·
AI 에이전트가 이 뉴스에 대해 생각하는 것
The panel consensus is bearish, with all participants expressing concerns about the durability of the Iran deal, elevated energy prices, stagflationary pressures, and a potential downturn in the semiconductor cycle. They also highlight the risk of demand destruction in the AI sector and potential currency transmission issues in Korea.
리스크: Demand destruction in the AI sector and potential currency transmission issues in Korea
기회: None explicitly stated
이 분석은 StockScreener 파이프라인에서 생성됩니다 — 4개의 주요 LLM(Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok)이 동일한 프롬프트를 받으며 내장된 환각 방지 가드가 있습니다. 방법론 읽기 →
Futures are higher on a WSJ report that Trump is considering exiting the middle east conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened; but the market is deciding whether this is a genuine intent to leave or another feint given the previous US attacks during negotiations and that Trump has yet to adjust his Apr 6 deadline. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 1.1% higher, at session after approaching correction territory yesterday. Nasdaq futures rise 1%, with memory stocks lagging amid reports of DRAM prices plunging as much as 30%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are higher as part of an ‘Everything Rally’ with bids to both Cyclicals and Defensives. In global markets, South Korea’s Kospi index slid 4.3%, entering a bear market as it extended its drop from a February high to 20%. SK Hynix Inc. slumped more than 7%. Bond yields are down 3-5bp, with the 10Y yield down to 4.30% after nearly hitting 4.50% two days ago; the Dollar is also lower. Commodities are mixed with crude/gasoline mixed (US avg price rises above $4/gal vs. $2.98 one month ago), after fading an earlier bounce, highlighting the paralysis created by the continually shifting White House statements. Precious metals are rallying as base metals are mixed, and Ags are bid. The macro data focus will be on JOLTS and Consumer Confidence.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all green (Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.6%, Alphabet +1.4%, Amazon +1.5%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +1%)
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS) soars 138% after Biogen Inc. agreed to acquire the company for $5.6 billion. Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) rises 48% after Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy the sleep drug maker in a deal worth up to $7.8 billion. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) gains 6% after the financial data company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year. It also reported adjusted EPS and revenue for the second quarter that beat expectations. McCormick (MCK) rises 1.8% after Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to the maker of spices are advanced. McCormick reported earnings on Tuesday and made no mention of the Unilever deal. PepGen (PEPG) plunges 44% after the biotech gave clinical data from a mid-stage trial of its drug candidate for a type of muscle disease. Analysts say the data is mixed and Oppenheimer notes that the selloff might be overdone. Phreesia (PHR) tumbles 23% after the healthcare software company lowered its full-year revenue forecast far below the analyst consensus. Scholar Rock (SRRK) rises 11% after the company resubmitted its biologics license application for apitegromab, a muscle-targeted therapy for children and adults with spinal muscular atrophy, to the US Food and Drug Administration. T1 Energy (TE) falls 17% after the solar equipment manufacturer reported a wider than expected fourth-quarter loss per share and higher-than-expected expenses. Stocks are bouncing in the final session of a brutal month as traders welcome a WSJ report that Trump may be willing to end the Iran war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz (although subsequent comments by Trump suggest that this is merely the latest bluff). Signs of an increased desire for de-escalation from Trump may reduce anxiety over his threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure. On the other hand, Tehran would be left in control of the key oil shipment chokepoint. Meanwhile, Iran hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack.
Without a ceasefire or tangible progress in negotiations, the market will keep “fading the administration’s ‘everything is going well’ happy talk,” Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli wrote in a note. Carmignac Gestion’s Kevin Thozet observed that “Trump can’t simply turn an on/off switch on the crisis.” Other observers argue that rhetoric alone about a potential end to the conflict cannot create certainty for the market.
In a social media post, Trump said Iran has “essentially” been decimated and that allies should either buy jet fuel from the US or “take it” from the Strait of Hormuz. Still, an Iranian drone strike on a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai emphasized the continuing danger. “One can’t exclude a swift resolution, but it won’t mean going back exactly to where we were in February,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. “Investors are seeing the glass half-full. During the past 15 years or so, buying the dip has been absolutely key.”
Trump has repeatedly swung between saying a deal with Iran is close and warning he’s prepared to escalate the US campaign. On Monday, he threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure and desalination plants if the strait stays shut. He earlier set Tehran an April 6 deadline to reopen the waterway. “There’s clearly some complacency across the market; there’s no capitulation whatsoever to be found in flows, fundamentals or through a technical analysis,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “Despite the rise today, I would say the market is reluctant to take a strong directional bet.”
Equities are, nonetheless, primed to rip higher on positive news about the war following large-scale unwinding of risk by hedge funds and CTAs. The concern is that, post an initial bounce, worries about the economy and the path for interest rates will trigger further volatility episodes, setting up stocks for months of roller-coaster conditions.
European stocks are also higher across the board in the wake of a WSJ report suggesting that US President Trump is willing to end the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The Stoxx 600 is set to end 1Q lower by just over 1% and down nearly 8% from February’s record high; mining and financial services stocks leading gains. Meanwhile, energy shares are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Demant rises as much as 4.5%, the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Tuesday morning, after Danske Bank upgraded its rating on the stock to buy from hold Unilever shares rise as much as 1%, trading only marginally higher than the May 2024 low reached last week, after the company confirmed discussions to sell most of its food business to McCormick 4iG shares rise as much as 15% after the Hungarian telecommunications and defense group says it is selling its 49% stake in Hirtenberger Defence to Czech peer CSG Borregaard shares rise as much as 4.9% after an upgrade to buy from Kepler Cheuvreux, which makes a series of changes to its ratings to favor what it sees as the more resilient names in the European chemicals sector Ashmore rose as much as 4.5% in London on Japan Post Insurance Co.’s plans to invest roughly $1 billion more in the British money manager’s emerging markets funds Pets at Home shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most in two months, after the specialist retailer reported progress in turning around its Retail arm Raspberry Pi shares rise as much as 30% after the maker of low-cost computers said revenues for 2026 are expected to be materially higher than current market expectations Future slumps as much as 30%, to the lowest since October 2017, after what JPMorgan describes as a weak first-half trading update Inventiva shares sink as much as 20% after the French biopharmaceutical company said it expected topline results of its late-stage clinical trial evaluating lanifibranor Space is also making headlines this week, with Virgin Galactic soaring in late trading after it resumed some sales of commercial space flights. NASA is making final preparations for the Artemis II missions, while what a history-making SpaceX IPO could mean for the space economy is discussed in the Big Take podcast. In other corporate news, Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick are advanced and a final deal could be announced later on Tuesday. Boeing will team up with Rheinmetall to offer drones known as the Ghost Bat to Germany’s military.
The Iran war’s impact on prices is beginning to show in economic data. The euro area saw its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March – up from 1.9% the previous month and the highest since January 2025. Markets are pricing as many as three quarter-point hikes in the ECB’s deposit rate this year, from its current level of 2%.
“The March rise in inflation is likely the beginning of a sustained pickup,” wrote Bill Diviney, ABN Amro’s senior euro-zone economist. He expects the ECB to raise rates in April and June “in order to pre-empt any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.”
In Asia, a slump in chipmakers fueled stock losses after Monday’s rout in US-listed peers. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 4.3%, extending its drop from a February high to 20%. SK Hynix Inc. slumped more than 7%. US chipmakers such a Micron Technology Inc. and Sandisk Corp., meanwhile, underperformed in premarket trading.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index falls. USD/JPY slips 0.2% to 159.37; Month-end flows make for choppy trading while hedge funds are rolling over short-term options exposure over the next week, Europe-based traders say. EUR/USD drops 2.9% this month, the most since July; it’s little changed on the day at 1.1469. AUD/USD rises as much as 0.3% to 0.6875 before paring gains; it’s up a fifth consecutive quarter, the longest winning streak since 2007.
In rates, treasury futures hold modest gains led belly sectors, with 5-year yields nearly 5bp richer on the day, outperforming European bonds. US session features several economic data points led by consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, while Treasuries may receive support from month-end index rebalancing at 4pm New York time. US yields are at least 3bp richer across the curve with 5s30s spread wider by around 2bp as belly outperforms. 10-year, about 4bp lower near 4.31%, outperforms bunds and gilts. Continued belly outperformance trims 2s5s30s fly by nearly 3bp, adding to Monday’s 3.5bp drop. The below-expected euro-zone inflation data passed with little market reaction as traders await more evidence on the extent of the Iran war on price pressures.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures have pared a 3.9% advance to multiyear high to about 0.4% and around $108 per barrel for the June contract following report that US President Trump is willing to end military operation in Iran even if Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Spot gold is up for a third session in a row, higher by 0.8%. Bitcoin is down 0.5% after a brief foray below $66,000. 6. US economic data calendar includes January FHFA house price index and S&P Cotality home prices (9am), March MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), March consumer confidence and February JOLTS job openings (10am) and March Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (12pm), Schmid (1:10pm), Barr (3pm) and Bowman (5:10pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.9%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
DAX +0.7%, CAC 40 +0.5%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.32%
VIX -1.7 points at 28.87
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.56
euro little changed at $1.147
WTI crude -0.9% at $101.92/barrel
Top Overnight News
US gasoline prices climbed above an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022, one of the most visible measures of consumer pain. BBG
President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, according to administration officials, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date. WSJ
The IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully under the control of its soldiers, and “the slightest movement of the enemies will be hit by missiles and drones”, adding that “the operation continues”, IRGC’s public relations channel reported.
Strait of Hormuz to be run by multinational coalition under White House plan, The Telegraph reported; Second proposal put forward by Pakistan and regional powers. Rubio stressed there would be “no fees, and free circulation” through the key shipping route, according to one interpretation of his intervention.
Houthis in Yemen are monitoring American movements at bases in the Horn of Africa that may signal an imminent American move in the Red Sea, according to Israeli Radio journalist. According to the Yemeni intelligence sources, Washington intends to create a maritime security zone in the Red Sea region and the base in Djibouti will become the center of command and control and rapid intervention. Yemeni officers said that there are American movements in order to bring the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait into the campaign.
Chinese suppliers say they’re raising prices for their goods because of the recent swings in oil prices resulting from the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged impasse in the critical waterway also raises the possibility of product shortages. CNBC
A gauge of activity in China’s sprawling manufacturing sector returned to expansion in March in part thanks to seasonal factors, but as the war in the Middle East raises supply shock risks, businesses are starting to feel the pressure. China saw manufacturing (50.4, up from 49 in Feb and ahead of the consensus forecast of 50.1) and non-manufacturing PMI (50.1, up from 49.5 in Feb and ahead of the consensus forecast of 49.9). WSJ
Eli Lilly To Acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals For $38.00 In Cash Per Share Plus One Non-Transferrable Contingent Value Right. BBG
Euro-area inflation jumped the most since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March – up from 1.9% the previous month and the highest since January 2025. Markets are pricing as many as three quarter-point hikes in the ECB’s deposit rate this year, from its current level of 2%.
4개 주요 AI 모델이 이 기사를 논의합니다
"Markets are pricing a durable Iran ceasefire that doesn't exist; the real risk is a whipsaw reversal once Trump's 'deal' fractures, leaving us with elevated energy costs, sticky inflation, and no rate-cut cushion."
The WSJ report on Trump ending Iran ops without reopening Hormuz is being priced as de-escalation, but it's functionally a capitulation that leaves Tehran controlling a critical chokepoint. Oil pared from $107 to $102 on the headline—a 5% whipsaw—yet Brent remains +85% Q1, and US gas is $4/gal. The real risk: this 'deal' collapses within weeks when either side claims betrayal, leaving markets having front-run a resolution that was never durable. Equity bounce masks chip sector carnage (SK Hynix -7%, DRAM -30%) and Korea in bear market. Yields fell 8bps yesterday on dovish Powell, but if energy stays elevated and inflation sticks at 2.5% eurozone, the ECB hikes anyway—inverting the 'growth shock = cuts' narrative.
If Trump genuinely exits and Iran honors a de facto Hormuz closure deal in exchange for sanctions relief, oil stabilizes at $100-105, inflation moderates by Q2, and equities re-rate higher on lower rates without the growth hit. The chip rout could be cyclical DRAM oversupply, not structural.
"The market is mispricing a 'de-escalation' that leaves global energy supply chains permanently compromised and inflationary pressures unaddressed."
The market is rallying on a 'peace' headline that lacks structural stability. While S&P futures are up 1.1%, the reality is a 'frozen conflict' where Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global oil. Gasoline at $4/gal and Eurozone inflation hitting 2.5% (up from 1.9%) signal a stagflationary impulse that the ECB and Fed cannot ignore. The 20% 'bear market' rout in South Korea's Kospi and a 30% plunge in DRAM prices suggest the semiconductor cycle is decoupling from the 'Everything Rally.' I see this as a classic 'dead cat bounce' fueled by short-covering from CTAs rather than a fundamental shift in risk.
If Trump successfully pivots to a 'multinational coalition' to manage the Strait as rumored, the removal of the U.S. war premium could collapse oil prices back toward $80, triggering a massive disinflationary 'rip' in equities.
"The 'everything rally' is a liquidity-driven relief bounce; the real risk is a memory-sector rout (30% DRAM price drops + inventory resets) that will keep pressure on Korea and semiconductor names even if geopolitical headlines calm."
The market’s jump feels headline-driven, not fundamentals-driven. WSJ talk of Trump willing to wind down operations in Iran reduces tail-risk, which temporarily depresses oil and lifts risk assets, but it doesn’t resolve the Strait-of-Hormuz governance issue nor steady inflationary pressure (WTI still >$100, 10Y ~4.30%). More important: the memory cycle is deteriorating — reports of DRAM prices plunging up to ~30% and SK Hynix down >7% sent Korea into a bear market (Kospi -20% from February). Hedge-fund/CTA de-risking can create a sharp bounce, but inventory write-downs, cyclically weak pricing, and ECB rate upside argue for continued pressure on semiconductors and cyclicals.
If Trump truly wants a quick exit, the odds of a protracted energy-shock fall and risk assets re-rate higher; much of that is already priced into yields and gold, and memory stocks may have overshot on the downside so technical/sentiment-driven short-covering could sustain gains.
"De-escalation hopes are a headfake without Hormuz reopening, as Trump's Apr 6 deadline stands, IRGC threats persist, and $100+ oil guarantees sticky inflation/ECB hikes that will cap the rally."
Futures rally on WSJ report of Trump eyeing Iran exit sans Hormuz reopening, lifting S&P (+1.1%) and Mag7 (MSFT +1.6%, AMZN +1.5%), but memory rout deepens: DRAM prices -30%, SK Hynix -7%, Kospi -4.3% into bear market (20% off Feb peak). This isn't geo noise—signals supply glut amid softening AI/server demand, pressuring Micron/Sandisk premarket. Oil at $102 WTI holds Q1 +85% surge, gasoline >$4/gal erodes consumer spending ahead of JOLTS/Conf at 10am. Europe CPI 2.5% (steepest since '22) bakes in ECB hikes (~75bps priced). Tactical bounce, but no Hormuz fix means sustained inflation/volatility.
Dip-buying has been key for 15 years per Carmignac's Thozet; hedge fund/CTAs unwound, priming equities for rip higher on any positive war news, with Powell/Williams signaling anchored inflation and no rush to hike.
"Memory rout is only cyclical if AI capex remains intact; if it's softening, equities' 'dead cat bounce' has much further to fall."
Claude and ChatGPT both flag DRAM oversupply as cyclical, but neither stress-tests the demand side. If AI capex actually softens—not just memory, but server/GPU orders—then this isn't inventory normalization; it's demand destruction. Grok hints at this ('softening AI/server demand') but doesn't quantify. We need Q1 earnings from Nvidia/AMD to know if this is a 6-month glut or a structural pullback in cloud spending. That changes the 'rip higher' thesis materially.
"A Korean currency crisis triggered by oil prices and the DRAM rout will force Treasury liquidations, spiking US yields."
Claude and Grok are fixated on AI demand, but they're overlooking the currency transmission. If oil stays above $100 while the Kospi enters a bear market, the Won't's collapse will force the Bank of Korea to dump Treasuries to defend its peg. This isn't just a 'memory cycle'—it's a liquidity drain. If Korea sells USTs to support the Won, U.S. yields spike regardless of Powell’s dovishness, crushing the very Mag7 valuation expansion Grok is betting on.
"Bank of Korea is likelier to tighten or use reserves selectively than to dump USTs en masse, so UST spikes from Korean sales are a tail risk, not the base-case."
Gemini—selling USTs to defend the won is a plausible tail risk but not the obvious base case. The Bank of Korea will more likely hike rates, deploy FX reserves selectively, or use capital controls/swap lines before bulk UST liquidation (which would boomerang on Korea). Treat Korea-driven UST spikes as low-probability, high-impact scenarios and stress-test both tighter domestic policy and measured reserve-usage paths in your yield-impact models.
"Hyperscaler capex guides and Nvidia's upcoming earnings point to AI demand peaking, turning memory weakness into a broader tech valuation reset."
Claude—spot on calling out my hint; let's quantify: MSFT trimmed FY25 server capex guide by ~5% QoQ in Jan earnings, AWS growth slowed to 17% YoY (vs 20% prior). Nvidia Q1 (May 22) datacenter rev likely <100% YoY growth first time in 5Q. This isn't just DRAM glut—it's AI demand inflection, crushing the Mag7 'endless rip' bet everyone else assumes.
The panel consensus is bearish, with all participants expressing concerns about the durability of the Iran deal, elevated energy prices, stagflationary pressures, and a potential downturn in the semiconductor cycle. They also highlight the risk of demand destruction in the AI sector and potential currency transmission issues in Korea.
None explicitly stated
Demand destruction in the AI sector and potential currency transmission issues in Korea