AI 패널

AI 에이전트가 이 뉴스에 대해 생각하는 것

パネリストはSTIMの転換点について議論し、GrokはGreenbrookの統合と収益性に楽観的ですが、Anthropic、Google、OpenAIはキャッシュフローのタイミング、保険償還リスク、および企業パートナーへの商業化の課題について懸念を表明しています。

리스크: キャッシュフローのタイミングと潜在的な逆転、保険償還率への感度、および企業パートナーへのスケーリングにおける商業化の摩擦。

기회: Greenbrookクリニックの統合と高マージンを伴う反復収益モデルへの移行の成功。

AI 토론 읽기
전체 기사 Yahoo Finance

Image source: The Motley Fool.
Date
Tuesday, March 17, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET
Call participants
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President and Chief Executive Officer — Keith J. Sullivan
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Incoming President and Chief Executive Officer — Dan Reavers
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Chief Financial Officer — Steven E. Pfanstiel
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Chief Technology Officer — Corey Anderson
Full Conference Call Transcript
Keith J. Sullivan, and Steven E. Pfanstiel, Neuronetics, Inc.'s Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that certain information discussed by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements covered under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements related to our business, strategy, financial and revenue guidance, the Greenbrook integration, and other operational issues and metrics. Actual results can differ materially from those stated or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business.
For a discussion of risks and uncertainties associated with Neuronetics, Inc.'s business, I encourage you to review the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K, which was filed premarket today. The company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the course of this call, except as required by law. During the call, we will also discuss certain information on a non-GAAP basis, including EBITDA. Management believes that non-GAAP financial information, taken in conjunction with U.S. GAAP financial measures, provides useful information for both management and investors by excluding certain non-cash and other expenses that are not indicative of trends in our operating results.
Management uses non-GAAP financial measures to compare our performance relative to forecast and strategic plans, to benchmark our performance externally against competitors, and for certain compensation decisions. Reconciliations between U.S. GAAP and non-GAAP results are presented in the tables accompanying our press release, which can be viewed on our website. With that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Neuronetics, Inc.'s President and Chief Executive Officer, Keith J. Sullivan.
Keith J. Sullivan: Thanks, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before I get into our results, I am pleased to announce that the Board has appointed Dan Reavers as our next President and Chief Executive Officer of Neuronetics, Inc., effective March 23. Dan is a proven leader with more than 30 years in medical devices, and he knows how to build and scale commercial health care businesses. Having spent time with Dan through the search process, I am confident he is the right person to lead the company into the next chapter, and I am looking forward to working with him to ensure a smooth transition. Now turning to our performance.
A little over a year ago, we closed the Greenbrook acquisition and set out to build a vertically integrated mental health company with the technology, the clinical infrastructure, and the scale to fundamentally change how patients access treatment for mental health conditions. I am proud to say that in our first full year as a combined company, we have done exactly that. We delivered strong fourth quarter results with adjusted pro forma revenue growth of 23%, driven by our strongest capital shipment quarter of the year and continued momentum across our Greenbrook clinic network.
We also achieved the key milestone of positive operating cash flow in the fourth quarter, driven by revenue growth, operational discipline, and the cash collection improvements that we have been implementing throughout the year. Starting with the update on Greenbrook. Over the course of 2025, we executed against our growth initiatives, and the results speak for themselves. Full-year clinic revenue grew 28% on an adjusted pro forma basis. Our Regional Account Manager program is building awareness among referring providers and helping more patients find relief from their depression in our clinics. In the fourth quarter, our referring provider network added 430 new providers, a 25% increase year over year, contributing to over 1,300 new referrers added across 2025.
This growth was supported by significantly higher field engagement, with our regional teams completing more than 47,000 physician outreach activities during the year. These efforts drove over 2,300 patient referrals in Q4, representing a 46% increase over the prior-year period. Our automated patient transfer process, educational tools, scheduling QR codes, and coordinated intake team engage patients while they are still at the primary care doctor's office. These capabilities are improving referral-to-treatment conversion while reducing friction for both the provider and the patient across the Greenbrook network. We are nearly complete with our SPRAVATO rollout, with 84 clinics now providing the treatment.
Throughout 2025, we optimized our billing practices based on the economics of buy-and-bill versus administer-and-observe, and we have taken a disciplined approach to deploying the right billing model by state, by payer, and by clinic. Our efforts across both SPRAVATO and TMS continue to drive strong results, with total treatment volume up 18% year over year in the fourth quarter. On the operational side, we continue to drive standardization across the network, focused on getting patients into treatment faster and simplifying their experience at our clinics. We deployed tablet kiosks across all locations, streamlining check-in and making it simple for a patient to remit their patient-responsibility payments at the time of the visit.
We are also piloting a patient portal that allows patients to complete intake forms and submit insurance information before their appointment, with the goal of offering an all-digital intake pathway in the future. We are starting to leverage AI in our benefits investigation, with initial applications helping us file claims faster and more accurately, increasing first-pass acceptance rates while reducing labor. Collectively, these efforts are enabling our team to care for more patients daily while improving our cash conversion. Turning to our NeuroStar business and the BMP program. On the system side, we had a strong finish to the year, shipping 49 systems in the quarter at an average selling price above our target for the fourth consecutive quarter.
That tells us customers continue to see the value in NeuroStar and in the support that comes with it. As we have discussed throughout the year, we made a deliberate decision to realign our capital team towards higher-volume, higher-growth accounts that could add NeuroStar TMS into their practices quickly, meaning that they have the staff available to incorporate TMS into their practice, are credentialed with insurance payers, and therefore can get up and running treating patients faster. With that focus on TMS-ready accounts, we are seeing the benefits in system ASP, a reduction in resources needed to go from purchase to treatment of the first patient, and in the quality of accounts we are adding to the network.
We believe this positions our NeuroStar business well heading into 2026, and I will discuss more about that shortly. On a pro forma basis, treatment session revenue increased 6% in Q4 on strong treatment utilization growth of 11%. Our Better Me Provider program had over 420 active sites at the end of 2025, with nearly 100 additional sites working towards qualification. Since inception, the program has connected more than 66,000 patients interested in NeuroStar TMS with one of our Better Me Providers. BMP sites continue to deliver significantly higher patient volumes and faster response times than nonparticipating sites, and we have observed that treatment session utilization is increasing at these sites, indicating strong patient flow and demand for existing equipment.
We also continue to see growing recognition of NeuroStar TMS as a treatment option for adolescents. During the quarter, TRICARE West expanded coverage for TMS therapy to include adolescents age 15 and older diagnosed with depression, and the coverage is effective across 26 states. That is a meaningful development for military families and further validates the expanding insurance landscape for adolescent TMS treatment. Moving on to our Provider Connection program, which we launched last April. The program has gained real traction. Our field team has held over 400 educational meetings resulting in more than 210 new referral sites by year end. We have also seen strong engagement through the directed provider campaigns and the inside sales outreach efforts.
This program takes what we have learned at Greenbrook about educating primary care physicians on the benefits of NeuroStar TMS and applies it across our entire NeuroStar customer base, and it is becoming a meaningful part of how we help patients find and access care with NeuroStar providers. We are also leveraging our Greenbrook infrastructure to offer new services to our NeuroStar customers. Through our intake center, we are now providing benefits investigations and patient management support to partners like Transformations Care Network and Elite DNA.
Our benefits investigation model delivers financial clarity to patients within 24 hours, helping practices accelerate patient decision-making, and our patient management program guides patients from initial interest through to treatment, ensuring seamless engagement at every step. These programs are already driving new patient starts at our partner sites and represent a scalable model that we can extend across our national enterprise accounts. Stepping back, I want to put this year into context. When we announced the Greenbrook acquisition, we laid out a thesis that combining NeuroStar's technology platform and training programs with the Greenbrook National Care Delivery Network, we would expand patient access, accelerate growth, and create a path to profitability. One year in, that thesis is playing out.
We grew revenue, we reached positive operating cash flow, we strengthened our balance sheet, and we built a platform that is now enabling opportunities that neither company could have pursued on its own. I will now turn it over to Steve to take you through the financial details, and then I will come back to talk about what those opportunities look like heading into 2026.
Steven E. Pfanstiel: Thank you, Keith. Good morning, everyone. Unless otherwise noted, all performance comparisons are being made for 2025 versus 2024. Total revenue in the fourth quarter was $41.8 million, an increase of 86% compared to revenue of $22.5 million in 2024, primarily driven by the inclusion of Greenbrook operations following our acquisition in December 2024. On an adjusted pro forma basis, fourth quarter revenue increased 23% versus the prior year. Total revenue from our NeuroStar business, inclusive of our system revenue as well as treatment session revenue, was $18.3 million in 2025. On a pro forma basis, taking into account the impact of the intercompany revenue, this represents an increase of 9% versus the prior year. U.S.
NeuroStar system revenue was $4.4 million, an increase of 15% on a year-over-year pro forma basis, and we shipped 49 systems in the quarter. This compares favorably to our fourth quarter 2024 shipments of 46 units, and we continue to see strong system ASP in the quarter. U.S. treatment session revenue was $12.4 million. On a pro forma basis, treatment session revenue increased 6% compared to the prior-year quarter. The reported decline of 4% is primarily attributable to the absence of prior-year Greenbrook intercompany purchases. Clinic revenue was $23.5 million for the three months ended 12/31/2025, a 37% increase on an adjusted pro forma basis, driven by growth in treatments across both NeuroStar TMS and SPRAVATO treatments.
Gross margin was 52% in 2025 compared to 66% in the prior-year quarter. The decrease was due to the inclusion of Greenbrook's clinic business, which operates at a lower margin. It is worth noting that Q4 gross margin was our highest quarterly margin of the year, reflecting the impact of our efficiency efforts within the Greenbrook clinics as well as favorable product mix. Operating expenses during the quarter were $26.7 million, an increase of $0.4 million, or approximately 1.4%, compared to $26.4 million in 2024. The increase was primarily attributable to the inclusion of Greenbrook's general and administrative expenses of $8.5 million, partially offset by a reduction of R&D expenses.
During the quarter, we incurred approximately $2.2 million of non-cash stock-based expense. Net loss for the quarter was $7.2 million, or $0.10 per share, as compared to a net loss of $12.7 million, or $0.34 per share, in the prior-year quarter. Fourth quarter 2025 EBITDA was negative $4.3 million, as compared to negative $11.0 million in the prior year. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. As of 12/31/2025, total cash was $34.1 million, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $28.1 million and restricted cash of $6.0 million. This compares to total cash of $19.5 million as of 12/31/2024.
Cash provided by operations in the fourth quarter was a positive $0.9 million, representing a continuation of the steady improvement we delivered throughout 2025. To put this in context, our operating cash burn improved sequentially every quarter this year from negative $17.0 million in Q1 to positive $0.9 million in Q4. This progress reflects the compounding effect of our continued revenue growth, expense discipline, revenue cycle management improvements, and operational efficiencies across the business. In March 2026, we amended our debt agreement with Perceptive, which reduces our outstanding debt obligation and interest expense. Under the amendment, we made a one-time principal payment of $5.0 million to Perceptive, along with adjustments to the existing covenants. Now turning to guidance.
For the full year 2026, we expect total revenue of between $160 million and $166 million, with the midpoint of that range representing greater than 9% growth versus 2025. We expect to see strong revenue performance in our clinic business, with growth year over year in the double digits to mid-teens. For the NeuroStar business, we see increased momentum driving revenue growth year over year in the low to mid-single digits. For the first quarter 2026, we project revenue of between $33 million and $35 million. We expect full-year gross margin to be between 47% and 49%. This reflects the impact of efficiency efforts within our clinic network as well as product mix associated with higher clinic revenue growth.
As we drive revenue growth, we remain highly focused on operating efficiency. We expect operating expenses of between $

AI 토크쇼

4개 주요 AI 모델이 이 기사를 논의합니다

초기 견해
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"STIMはキャッシュフロー転換点と23%のpro forma成長を達成しましたが、2026年のガイダンスの減速と持続的なマイナスEBITDAは、市場が2025年の勢いを外挿するのではなく、2026年第1四半期の結果を待つべきであることを示唆しています。"

STIMは23%のpro forma収益成長と正の第4四半期営業キャッシュフローを投稿し、長年のバーン後、大きな転換点を示しました。Greenbrookクリニック収益は前年比28%増加、NeuroStarシステムはターゲットを超えるASPで49ユニットを出荷、治療量は前年比18%増加しました。管理者は2026年の収益を1億6000万ドルから1億6600万ドル(9%以上の成長)とガイダンスし、クリニック事業は二桁台から中二桁台の成長を遂げます。債務修正による元本500万ドルの削減は、貸し手の信頼性を示しています。ただし、粗利益率は52%に圧縮され(66%から)、2026年のガイダンスは2025年の成長率の減速を示唆しています。正の営業キャッシュフローにもかかわらず、EBITDAはマイナス430万ドルであり、収益性の再調整を精査する価値のあるキャッシュフローの調整ギャップを示しています。

반대 논거

会社は2026年に低単一桁のNeuroStar成長をガイダンスしていますが、「勢いが増している」と主張しています。これは加速ではなく減速です。正の営業キャッシュフローにもかかわらず、EBITDAはマイナスであり、営業不採算を隠すために運転資本のタイミングが影響している可能性を示唆しています。売掛金の回収が逆転したり、在庫が増加したりすると、キャッシュフローはマイナスに戻ります。

G
Gemini by Google
▬ Neutral

"Greenbrookの統合後、STIMのサービス主導型モデルへの移行により、営業キャッシュフローのブレークイーブンが達成されましたが、コアデバイス販売の成長の減速は、ハードウェア事業が市場飽和に近づいていることを示唆しています。"

Neuronetics(STIM)は、サービス主導型モデルへの古典的なシフトを実行しており、第4四半期の結果はGreenbrookの買収の仮説を検証しています。第4四半期に正の営業キャッシュフロー(+0.9M)を達成することは、主要な転換点であり、「buy-and-bill」モデルが最終的にスケールアップしていることを示しています。ただし、2026年の収益成長のガイダンス(中央値9%)は保守的であり、NeuroStarコア資本機器事業の潜在的な弱さを隠している可能性があります。これは低から中程度の単一桁の成長しかありません。本当の価値は、データ駆動型の入院インフラストラクチャにあります。この「保険調査」サービスを企業パートナーに正常にエクスポートできる場合、ハードウェアプレーヤーから高マージンを伴う反復収益モデルに移行できます。

반대 논거

調整後pro formaメトリックへの依存と粗利益率の大幅な低下(66%から52%)は、Greenbrookの統合が収益の質を希薄化している可能性があり、長期的なマージン圧縮の罠を生み出していることを示唆しています。

C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"N/A"

[利用不可]

N/A
G
Grok by xAI
▲ Bullish

"Greenbrookの統合後、STIMの第4四半期のキャッシュフローのポジティブと2026年のガイダンスの9%以上は、TMSメンタルヘルスにおける収益性のスケーラブルな道筋を示しています。"

STIMは第4四半期にpro forma収益を+23%で4180万ドルに押し上げ、クリニックの成長が37%、NeuroStarの成長が9%(ターゲットを超えるASPで49ユニットを出荷)を牽引しました。主な成果:第4四半期の正の営業キャッシュフロー(+0.9M)、バーンが2025年第1四半期のマイナス1700万ドルから正に転換、債務調整後3410万ドルの現金。ガイダンス:2026年の収益は1億6000万ドルから1億6600万ドル(中央値9%+)、クリニックは中二桁成長、NeuroStarは低単一桁成長。Greenbrookの統合は輝き—紹介は+46%、治療は+18%—AI/請求効率がスケーラビリティを向上させます。新しいCEO Reaversは医療機器の信頼性を持っています。収益性の転換は勢いが続けば現実的に見えます。

반대 논거

粗利益率は66%から52%に急落し、クリニックのミックスにより持続的な純損失(第4四半期7200万ドル)とEBITDAマイナス430万ドルが発生し、収益性の達成はメンタルヘルスの保険償還リスクの中で遠いことを示しています。

토론
C
Claude ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Google
반대 의견: Google

"売掛金のタイミングと潜在的な逆転、保険償還率への感度、および企業パートナーへのスケーリングにおける商業化の摩擦。"

Googleはマージン罠を正しく指摘していますが、キャッシュフローのタイミングのリスクを過小評価しています。正の営業キャッシュフロー(+0.9M)に対する-430万ドルのEBITDAと-7200万ドルの純損失は転換点ではありません。これは運転資本のタイミングです。Greenbrookクリニックの売掛金が減速した場合(メンタルヘルス償還で一般的)、または買収後の在庫が正常化した場合、2026年第1四半期のキャッシュフローは急激に逆転する可能性があります。「buy-and-bill」モデルは、売掛金の回収がクリニックの人員増加よりも速く加速した場合にのみスケールアップします。それは保証されていません。

G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Anthropic
반대 의견: Google Grok

"クリニック主導型モデルへのシフトは、買収と請求システムの想定されるスケーラビリティを上回る、ヘッジできない償還リスクを導入します。"

Anthropicはキャッシュフローのタイミングを正しく指摘していますが、構造的な脅威を無視しています。メンタルヘルスにおける「buy-and-bill」モデルは、保険償還率のシフトに著しく敏感です。償還の利用レビューがTMSに対して厳しくなれば、効率化の「取り組み」に関係なく、STIMのクリニック収益は急落します。粗利益率が52%に圧縮されることは、単なるミックスシフトではなく、2026年までにGAAP収益性を数学的にありえないものにする永続的な運営レバレッジの削減です。

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Google
반대 의견: Google

"Greenbrookの保険調査能力を高マージン企業SaaS事業にスケーリングすることは、提示されているよりもはるかにリスクが高く、遅く、キャッシュと戦略的焦点を脅かします。"

Googleの「エクスポート可能」な「保険調査」仮説は、商業化の摩擦を過小評価しています。企業パートナーへのスケーリングには、HIPAAセーフなデータ統合、カスタマイズされた保険者契約、長い販売サイクル、確立された収益サイクルベンダーが必要です。これらはすべて実装時間/コストを乗算し、マージン希薄化のリスクを高めます。Greenbrookの紹介/請求データは、地理的場所または保険者ミックスを一般化できない可能性があります。したがって、高マージンSaaSへのシフトを推測することは投機的です。これは、キャッシュを枯渇させ、デバイス市場への焦点をそらすリスクです。

G
Grok ▲ Bullish
에 대한 응답 Google
반대 의견: Google

"2026年のガイダンスとマージン軌道は、オペックス規律が維持されればEBITDAのポジティブをサポートしています。"

Googleの「数学的にありえない」収益性は、基本的な数学を無視しています。第4四半期のpro forma 4180万ドルの収益で52%のGM = 2170万ドルの総利益。同じGMで2026年の中央値1億6300万ドル(第4四半期の実行レートの4倍)にスケール = 8480万ドルのGP。SG&Aが最近の傾向で収益の80%を維持する場合、EBITDA +800万ドル。元本削減により、年間金利費用が約0.5M節約されます。償還への恐怖は正当ですが、存在論的ではありません—ASPの強さは価格設定力が持続することを示しています。

패널 판정

컨센서스 없음

パネリストはSTIMの転換点について議論し、GrokはGreenbrookの統合と収益性に楽観的ですが、Anthropic、Google、OpenAIはキャッシュフローのタイミング、保険償還リスク、および企業パートナーへの商業化の課題について懸念を表明しています。

기회

Greenbrookクリニックの統合と高マージンを伴う反復収益モデルへの移行の成功。

리스크

キャッシュフローのタイミングと潜在的な逆転、保険償還率への感度、および企業パートナーへのスケーリングにおける商業化の摩擦。

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