AI 에이전트가 이 뉴스에 대해 생각하는 것
패널은 이란의 명백한 거부, 계속되는 공격, 최대 요구 사항을 지적하며 이란 휴전 헤드라인에 대한 시장의 릴리프 랠리에 대해 회의적입니다. 그들은 잠재적인 오판이나 공격이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄할 수 있으며, PMI 데이터의 스태그플레이션 신호는 휴전과 관계없이 지속된다고 경고합니다.
리스크: 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄하는 오판 또는 공격
기회: 5년물 경매에 대한 기관의 확신은 긴장 완화 가능성이 실제로 바뀌었다는 것을 나타냅니다.
Stock Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Ceasefire Optimism
US futures are sharply higher and oil tumbles as the US reportedly offered a15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close triggering a global rally; Meanwhile Iran is said to have rejected the plan and kept up missile and drone attacks on Israel and Arab Gulf states in response to attacks on its own facilities, while the US continues to move new military assets into place ahead of Trump’s deadline to reopen the SoH. So the situation remains fluid. Even so, S&P futures rose 1.0% and Nasdaq futures gained over 1.1% , with all Mag 7 stocks higher pre-market; Semis and Cyclicals ex-Energy are higher with some defensives such as healthcare maintaining a bid. The yield on two-year Treasuries dropped four basis points to 3.86% while 10Y yields traded down to 4.31%; the USD is flat and commodities are selling off. Energy and natgas are weaker; Brent fell 6% to below $99 a barrel even as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut as a diplomatic push by the US to try to end the war with Iran gathered pace, eclipsing news of more troops being sent to the region; precious metals are rallying despite the USD being flat. Meanwhile, reminding us that another war is taking place, drones attacked Russia’s Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea, setting it on fire as Ukraine carried out the most intense air strike on its foe in more than a year. Today's US economic data calendar includes February import/export priced index and 4Q current account balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 4:10pm
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks all rise (Alphabet +1.3%, Amazon +1.3%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +1.5%, Meta +0.9%, Microsoft +1%, Tesla +1.8%). Miners such as Newmont Corp. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. were among the biggest gainers in US premarket trading.
Arm Holdings (ARM) rises 12% after the semiconductor designer said it will start selling its own chips for the first time. The new business is expected to generate about $15 billion annually within five years.
Blaize Holdings (BZAI) soars 42% after the semiconductor device company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook that analysts are positive on.
Braze (BRZE) gains 21% after the software company forecast revenue for the first quarter that was higher than the average analyst estimate. The company also reported better-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter.
Chewy (CHWY) gains 6% after online retailer of pet food posted fourth-quarter results.
General Motors Co. (GM) climbs 2% after Wolfe raised its rating to outperform, saying investors may be underestimating several tailwinds, including a lower net tariff burden.
EchoStar (SATS) rises 5%, Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 3% and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) climbs 3% as the Information reports that SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week.
KB Home (KBH) falls 4% after the single-family home builder forecast deliveries for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR) rises 5% after the gunmaker said Beretta Holding said it’s prepared to commence a tender offer for up to 20% of the outstanding shares not already owned at a purchase price of $44.80 per share.
Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) gains 5% after Merck & Co. agreed to buy the drugmaker in a $6.7 billion deal.
In other corporate news, Meta’s rollout of new display-equipped Ray-Ban smart glasses in the EU has been hampered by battery and AI regulations in addition to supply constraints. Amazon, Qualcomm Ventures and Tether are among investors in robotics startup Neura’s latest funding round. SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for its IPO as soon as this week, The Information reported.
In AI news, Arm shares are up in premarket trading after the chip designer said it will begin selling its own chips for the first time, adding a business that it expects to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. OpenAI plans to discontinue its Sora AI video generator six months after the high-profile launch of a standalone app for the service. It will also wind down a partnership with Disney which had centered on Sora. Disney’s CEO has now seen two technology bets falter in a week.
Traders are finding some relief after weeks of headline-driven volatility that have left the S&P 500 on track for its biggest monthly loss in a year. The overnight mood was lifted by news that the US sent Iran a 15-point plan to resolve the conflict. Details are still coming out, but the AP reported that it includes sanctions relief, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Wednesday’s rebound, investors remain wary as Iran kept up attacks on neighboring states and several officials signaled that the Islamic Republic isn’t ready to negotiate.
“There’s a rebound in risk appetite this morning, which makes sense given the newsflow, but for us this is no time to buy the rally,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. “One can actually feel the algos reacting to the ‘peace’, ‘negotiation’ and ‘ceasefire’ keywords.”
For Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management, the sustainability of today’s rally will depend heavily on a constructive response from Iran, and the situation on the ground meant investors should remain cautious.
“The outcome does not depend solely on the US,” he said. “The regional geopolitical landscape remains complex, involving multiple actors, most notably Iran, which retains meaningful negotiating leverage. This continues to introduce an additional layer of risk, particularly through the energy channel.”
Oil fell, with WTI back down to around $88 a barrel. The retreat in oil prices prompted traders to scale back expectations for tighter monetary policy from central banks. Swaps now price in less than a one-in-five chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year, while pointing to between two and three increases from the Bank of England. Traders priced in three BOE hikes on Tuesday. ECB President Christine Lagarde also pushed back against expectations of an imminent response to higher energy prices, saying that the ECB could look through a limited, short-lived shock.
While bond markets continued to signal a more negative scenario for the war than equities, “these perspectives should converge once visibility improves, likely returning to a more benign baseline,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank.
The impact on companies and supply chains continues to play out. Airgas said it will curtail helium shipments after Qatar halted production at a major LNG facility. Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of the spring planting season. And the Trump administration is said to be preparing to expand the opportunity for sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline this summer.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 advanced 1.4%, heading for its first three-day run of gains since the conflict began. Mining and technology stocks are leading gains, while telecoms and personal care shares are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
UBS shares rise as much as 2.6% amid broader gains for financials and as Bank of America analysts reiterate a buy rating on the Swiss firm
Diageo rises as much as 2.5% after BNP Paribas upgraded the drinksmaker’s stock to neutral from underperform, citing improved risk-reward following material underperformance and trough valuation levels
Croda shares rise as much as 5.4% after Morgan Stanley raised the stock to overweight from equal-weight, the second bank to upgrade the stock this week
Grifols shares rise as much as 9.5%, the most since July 30, following the Spanish blood plasma company’s plan to list a minority stake in its US biopharma business
Lanxess shares soared 16% after JPMorgan double upgraded the German specialty chemical company, saying it should get an earnings boost as the war in Iran eases competitive pressures and increases pricing power
Volex shares rise as much as 13% after the UK connectivity and power product group said it expects financial performance to be significantly ahead of market expectations
ASOS shares rise as much as 17%, the most in more than four months, after the online fashion retailer posted first-half earnings that surpassed analysts’ forecasts
RS Group shares drop as much as 6.7%, the most in 14 months, after the distributor of electronic and industrial products warned like-for-like sales are expected to decline in the year to the end of March
Reckitt Benckiser shares fall as much as 2.8% after JPMorgan (neutral) cut its first-quarter sales forecast for the consumer goods company, citing weak seasonal over-the-counter products and destocking after a poor flu season
Inwit shares slide as much as 9.9% after key customer Swisscom sought to terminate their service agreement in 2028, a move that escalates a dispute between the two parties
Earlier, Asian stocks rose for a second session, with all major markets in the green, as hopes for a de-escalation of the Iran war gathered strength on reports of diplomatic efforts by the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.4%, the most since March 10, with chipmaker TSMC among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks rose more than 1.5% each in South Korea, Japan, India and Taiwan.
The rebound in risk assets was driven by expectations of a negotiated settlement in the Middle East conflict. The US has presented Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News, while Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington is seeking a one-month ceasefire for negotiations. Elsewhere in the region, Indonesian stocks gained as the market reopened after a weeklong holiday. Australian shares climbed as inflation rose less than expected in February.
In FX, the US dollar is unchanged, while the Aussie dollar is leading declines against the greenback, falling 0.5%. The pound is little changed after UK inflation held at an 11-month low in February as expected.
In rates, treasuries were relatively stable overnight, broadly holding Tuesday’s late gains into the US session as the Trump administration stepped up efforts for ending the war with Iran.US yields lower by 3bp to 4bp across the curve with spreads broadly trading within a basis points of Tuesday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.32%, near bottom of day’s range and with 10-year note futures trading toward top of Tuesday range — in the 10-year sector bunds and gilts outperform Treasuries by 2.5bp and 5bp on the day. Oil prices hold losses, supporting European bonds over the London session. In the UK, February CPI data printed broadly in-line with estimates, while PPI data was slightly softer than estimates. US session focus includes a 5-year note auction, which follows Tuesday’s poor 2-year auction. This week’s Treasury auction cycle resumes with a $70 billion 5-year note sale at 1pm New York, following a weak 2-year note auction on Tuesday that tailed the WI by 1.8bp. The WI 5-year at ~3.972% is ~36bp cheaper than the February stop-out, which tailed the WI by 0.7bp
In commodities, WTI and Brent futures both trade lower by over 5% on the day, supporting S&P futures (+1.0%) and lower Treasury yields, following report that the US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the Iran conflict to a close. Brent crude futures for May fall about 5% to around $99 a barrel, while WTI traded around $88 a barrel. European natural gas futures drop 5.5%. Precious metals gain.
Today's US economic data calendar includes February import/export priced index and 4Q current account balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 4:10pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.9%
Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +1.5%
DAX +1.8%
CAC 40 +1.6%
10-year Treasury yield -4 basis points at 4.32%
VIX -1.4 points at 25.53
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1207.99
euro little changed at $1.1602
WTI crude -5.2% at $87.51/barrel
Top Overnight News
Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again," according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions. They worry Trump is buying time as he brings more military equipment to the Middle East. Axios
Iran has received an American 15-point plan for a ceasefire for the Iran war through intermediaries from Pakistan, officials in Islamabad said Wednesday. The proposal was sent even as Washington began to move paratroopers to the Middle East to back up a contingent of Marines already heading to the region. AP
Chinese artificial intelligence service stocks rallied after state media highlighted a sharp increase in domestic AI model adoption and a surge in token usage they generate. BBG
Chevron’s refining head warned that California is heading toward a fuel crisis and that it may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations. BBG
Australia’s inflation eased slightly in February, but remained well above the central bank’s target range, keeping the door open for a further rise in interest rates. Headline inflation was 3.7% on-year in February, easing from 3.8% in January, but still well above the 2% to 3% range targeted by the Reserve Bank of Australia. WSJ
The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation was unchanged in February, but is set to rise over the coming months as energy and food prices jump in the wake of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. CPI was inline on the headline for Feb at +3%, but ran slightly ahead on core (+3.2% vs. the Street +3.1%) and services (+4.3% vs. the Street +4.2%). WSJ
SpaceX may file an IPO as soon as this week, The Information reported. The company may try to raise more than $75 billion, but won’t decide until a few weeks before the offering. BBG
DHS funding deal receives critical pushback from both sides of the aisle, raising doubts about whether an agreement is imminent. Politico
The DOJ acknowledged that they did not have evidence of wrongdoing in its criminal investigation of the Fed over the cost of its building renovations, according to a transcript of the court proceedings. WaPo
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded higher with risk sentiment spurred by hopes of a halt to the Iran conflict after optimistic comments from US President Trump regarding negotiations, while it was reported that the US was working on a 1-month ceasefire and offered a 15-point plan to Iran for ending the conflict. ASX 200 rallied with gains led by outperformance in mining stocks as gold producers cheered a rebound in the precious metal, while the federal and Queensland governments announced a AUD 2bln bailout for Rio Tinto's Boyne aluminium smelter. Nikkei 225 outperformed and returned to above the USD 53,000 level as Iran ceasefire hopes to alleviate the recent oil and inflation-related pressures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive, albeit to varying degrees throughout the day, as participants digested a slew of earnings releases, while the PBoC conducted a CNY 500bln on 1yr MLF operation.
Top Asian News
Australian Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%, Low. 3.5%, High. 4.0%).
Australian Inflation Rate MoM (Feb) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.4%, Low. -0.2%, High. 0.4%).
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI MoM (Feb) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%).
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%, Low. 3.3%, High. 3.4%).
Top European News
UK Business Secretary Kyle is to hold emergency talks with company bosses Wednesday morning about the impact of the Iran war on the UK economy, Sky News reported.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK abandoned pledge to nationalise water and energy companies, according to FT.
Danish PM Frederiksen's bloc wins the election but lacks the majority with the left bloc winning 84 seats, right bloc gets 77 seats, and Danish moderate party wins 14 seats to become kingmaker, according to AFP.
US President Trump endorses Hungarian PM Orban, stating he's a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record delivering of phenomenal results.
FX
DXY is slightly firmer this morning, with the trough of the day coinciding with its 21 DMA at 99.07 (vs peak of 99.42). Geopols once again the main driver of action for the index this morning; to recap, a US-led 15-point ceasefire plan has been formed, whilst Iran has denied negotiations entirely. Earlier today, the index dipped off best levels on reports that Iran had received the 15-point plan, pointing to some initial progress to diplomacy. DXY fell from 99.36 to 99.25 within a few minutes, before then reversing much of that move thereafter.
G10s are entirely lower vs USD this morning. The net-importers of energy regions (EUR, GBP, JPY) appear to be faring better vs peers, given the pressure in crude prices in recent trade. Antipodeans are underperforming, with underperformance in the Aussie in the aftermath of the slightly softer-than-expected Australian monthly inflation data.
EUR has had some ECB speak to digest this morning, and a few regional data points. ECB President Lagarde highlighted that "small, one-off and short-lived supply shocks can be looked through," but noted that it “will not be paralysed by hesitation.” One can actually feel the algos reacting to the ‘peace’, ‘negotiation’ and ‘ceasefire’ keywords. “When the energy shock hit in 2021–22, several of these channels were operating simultaneously. But there are factors today which point to a lesser pass through.” Chief Economist Lane also provided some commentary, where he stated that market-based inflation expectations have risen since the start of the Iran conflict. Also, in the rearview, German Ifo metrics were fairly resilient, with Business Climate holding steady at 88.6 (topping expectations), whilst Expectations dipped to 86.0 (prev. 90.2). ING believes the recent Middle East conflict should only “delay, not derail” the rebound in Germany. EUR is currently a touch lower vs USD, and trades within a 1.1587-1.1630 range.
GBP is also incrementally lower vs the USD, holding within a 1.3370-1.3436 range and trading in close proximity to its 100 DMA (1.3407), 21 DMA (1.3390) and 200 DMA (1.3433). Cable saw some fleeting upside on this morning’s inflation report, where headline printed a touch below expectations though core and services Y/Y figures topped expectations. Ultimately, the data lacks significance given it surveys the February period, before the Iran conflict began. Nonetheless, the series marginally adds to the stagflationary diagnosis the UK economy is currently subject to.
Barclays FX month-end rebalancing: strong USD buying against most majors, and moderate buying against the EUR, JPY and GBP.
Central Banks
Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said energy shocks can pose risks to both sides of the Fed mandate, while he doesn't know if they can cut rates again and it depends on how long the war will last. Possible that energy prices could stay high after the war ends. Likely to see a downturn in consumer sentiment. It's not an obvious playbook for what to do and it's a bad situation for a central bank.
Fed's Barr (voter) sees rates holding steady for some time and wants evidence of sustainable inflation retreat. Labour market seems to be stabilising. Middle East conflict raises additional risk.
ECB's Lagarde said "Small, one-off and short-lived supply shocks can be looked through. But as expected deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent, the case for action becomes stronger.". "When the energy shock hit in 2021–22, several of these channels were operating simultaneously. But there are factors today which point to a lesser pass through."; namely, the initial shock has thus far been smaller, and today's macroeconomic backdrop is more benign. "We will not act before we have sufficient information on the size and persistence of the shock and its propagation. But we will not be paralysed by hesitation: our commitment to delivering 2% inflation over the medium term is unconditional."
ECB's Lane said the central bank will at every meeting consider what the scenario is before setting policy.
BoJ Minutes from the January 22nd-23rd meeting stated some members expressed the recognition that the Bank was currently at the stage of closely monitoring developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions.
Riksbank Assistant Governor Jones said RBA is shifting focus from if to how on digital tokens.
RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway urged New Zealand's government to pursue structural reforms to lift productivity, saying monetary policy can’t solve the cost-of-living crisis alone.
Fixed Income
A bullish start to the day as the progress towards a ceasefire weighs on the energy space, allowing yields to ease from highs and in turn underpinning the fixed income space. Thus far, USTs have been as high as 110-30 with gains of 17 ticks at best. However, the benchmark remains shy of the WTD peak at 1110-04+ and by extension well off recent peaks.
Elsewhere, EGBs and Gilts are bid, with gains of 43 and 53 ticks respectively, but off best levels by around 20 and 40 ticks.
Bunds unreactive to remarks from ECB's Lagarde and Lane, which largely stuck to the script from last week. Elsewhere, the March German Ifo series was better than expected, though the readings did decline from the prior, with the exception of the Current Assessment. However, the series clearly shows that the economy is feeling the impact of the Middle East situation, but participants are yet to determine if the crisis is a lasting one or not, in terms of its economic impact. In short, further evidence of stagflation in the EZ.
For Gilts, the bias was bullish given the above. However, the February CPI series marginally added to the stagflationary diagnosis the UK economy is currently subject to. Nonetheless, Gilts opened higher by around 35 ticks before climbing to an 88.62 peak with gains of 99 ticks at best. Ahead, BoE's Greene may weigh in on the UK's precarious economic situation.
Germany sells EUR 1.726bln vs exp. EUR 2.0bln 2.60% 2041 and 0.00% 2052 Bund.
Italy sells EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.75-2.0bln 2.20% 2028 BTP & EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 1.10% 2031, 1.80% 2036 BTPei.
German KfW Head of Capital Markets said Euro Green bond issuance “likely to come early” in Q2; Issuance window is now shorter amid the conflict.
Commodities
WTI and Brent futures have pulled back this morning in a continuation of the premium unwind following reports the US is proposing a one-month ceasefire mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, similar to frameworks used in Gaza and Lebanon, whilst US also sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war (full Newsquawk Analysis on the board). Iranian representatives reportedly told the Trump administration that they do not want to resume negotiations with Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while it prefers to negotiate with VP JD Vance. The Pakistani officials described the proposal broadly as touching on sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nat gas prices meanwhile are weaker by some 7.5% at the time of writing, trading on either side of EUR 50/MWh, whilst reports suggested Dutch gas storage levels fall to the lowest point for this time of the year since 2010.
Spot gold edged higher overnight and returned above the USD 4,500/oz level amid softer yields and lower oil prices, with the bullion currently within USD 4,456-4,602/oz. Analysts at ING suggest that “Near term, gold remains highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, currency moves and geopolitical developments. Risks remain elevated as Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz and Israel continues operations against Iranian assets.”
Copper futures benefit alongside the positive risk environment amid hopes for a ceasefire in the Iran conflict, with 3M LME copper in a USD 12,192.00- 12,348.35/t. Desks also suggest that positioning data points to a cautious rebound in risk appetite across base metals.
Russia's Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga have reportedly suspended crude oil and oil products loadings after drone attacks.
Russia is reviewing its energy supply chains amid Middle-East crisis to prioritise neighbouring nations, Tass reports.
Hungarian PM Orban said gas flows to Ukraine will stop until oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline resumes.
Japanese PM Takaichi requests the IEA to prepare additional oil release if needed, and met with IEA Executive Director Birol.
IEA said it stands ready to release additional volumes from strategic oil reserves as required to support market stability.
Valero (VLO) is said to be preparing its Port Arthur refinery to restart.
Italian PM Meloni to meet top Algerian officials today in an effort to secure alternative gas supplies, according to FT.
US President Trump's administration is expected to lift summer gasoline regulations to curb energy prices as soon as Wednesday, according to sources.
Venezuela's opposition leader Machado said the country requires USD 150bln to boost oil output to 5mln bpd.
Cosco (601919 CH / 1919 HK) have resumed new bookings for standard containers to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq, effective immediately.
Trade/Tariffs
China's Commerce Ministry, on Mexico's tariff increases on Chinese and non-FTA products, said it creates investment barriers; said China reserves the right to take measures.
Geopolitics
Iranian source says Pakistan has handed a US proposal to Iran, while the venue of talks is still being discussed, Reuters reports.
Iran has reportedly received the 15-point US ceasefire proposal, according to AP citing Pakistani officials. The Pakistani officials described the proposal broadly as touching on sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Ambassador to Pakistan said there were no talks between the US and Iran, either directly or indirectly, IRNA reported; said "friendly countries" seek to lay the ground for talks, "hopes these efforts can help in ending the war".
Iranian officials have told the Trump administration via channels that they do not want to resume negotiations with Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while they prefer to negotiate with VP JD Vance.
Iranian representatives have communicated to the Trump administration a high bar for re-entering ceasefire negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ/Dow Jones.
United Command of Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson said US is negotiating with itself, according to IRNA.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said there is no dialogue or negotiations with the US; no one trusts US diplomacy. Forces are focussed on defense.
Iranian Navy Commander says USS Lincoln strike group is under constant Iranian monitoring and will be targeted as soon as it comes within range of missile systems, SNN reports.
US and Arab officials say mediators from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are pushing to have a meeting arranged between US and Iran in the next 48 hours, but both sides remain far apart, according to WSJ.
Trump administration increasingly using US Treasury Secretary Bessent to communicate its case on Iran as it seeks to contain market fallout, Semafor reported. Some critics called the choice unusual and a sign of dysfunction, while others said his standing in economic circles made him a credible spokesman. White House officials said he was key to reassuring markets and the public.
US Senate voted 53-47 to block resolution that would limit President Trump's Iran war power.
Israel hit a Russian-Iranian weapons smuggling route in the Caspian Sea, according to WSJ.
IDF said it has started a new wave of strikes targeting Iranian regime's infrastructure in Tehran.
IAEA Chief Grossi said talks between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear program and other issues may be held in Islamabad in the coming days.
Kuwait's General Authority of Civil Aviation said drones targeted fuel tanks at Kuwait's international airport, causing a fire, although there were no casualties reported.
UK PM Starmer said UK is now working with partners on a plan to ensure flows of goods through key maritime routes, following a call with the Saudi Crown Prince.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 - 08:13
AI 토크쇼
4개 주요 AI 모델이 이 기사를 논의합니다
"시장은 이란이 이미 거부한 휴전을 선반영하고 있으며, 미국 군사 태세는 해결보다는 확전을 준비하는 것을 시사합니다."
시장은 아직 존재하지 않는 휴전을 가격에 반영하고 있습니다. 네, 유가는 외교 헤드라인에 5-6% 하락했고 주식은 안도감에 랠리했습니다. 하지만 기사는 리드를 묻어버립니다: 이란은 명백히 계획을 거부했고, 공격을 계속했으며, 중재자들에게 트럼프에게 '두 번 속았다'고 말했습니다. 미국은 동시에 군사 배치를 늘리고 카르그 섬 점령을 고려하고 있습니다. 이것은 긴장 완화가 아니라 계속되는 군비 증강을 가리는 협상 연극입니다. 배럴당 88-99달러의 유가는 호르무즈 해협이 열려 있다고 가정합니다. 이란의 한 번의 오판이나 이스라엘의 공격은 하룻밤 사이에 상황을 바꿀 수 있습니다. PMI 데이터 또한 휴전이 해결하지 못하는 스태그플레이션 신호(투입 가격 2022년 최고치)를 보여줍니다.
만약 트럼프의 외교 채널이 실제로 작동한다면 — 그리고 기사에 인용된 한 고위 분석가는 회담이 '조용하지만 신속하게 진전'되고 있다고 말합니다 — 그러면 유가는 지속적으로 10-15% 더 하락할 수 있으며, 인플레이션 오버행을 제거하고 연중 중반까지 실질 금리 인하를 가능하게 하여 주식과 기간 자산에 엄청나게 강세를 보일 것입니다.
"주식 시장은 거부된 외교 제안에 기반한 '평화 배당'을 잘못 가격 책정하고 있으며, 가시적인 군사적 확전과 여전히 폐쇄된 호르무즈 해협을 무시하고 있습니다."
S&P 선물 1.0% 상승은 구조적 실체가 부족한 휴전 헤드라인에 의해 주도된 전형적인 '알고리즘 함정'입니다. 미국 15개항 계획은 외교적 시도이지만, 이란의 보고된 거부와 미국 기지 폐쇄 및 제재 완화 요구와 같은 최대 요구 사항은 시장 낙관론과 지정학적 현실 간의 엄청난 격차를 시사합니다. 브렌트유 6% 하락은 호르무즈 해협이 사실상 폐쇄되었고 미국이 82 공수부대를 적극적으로 배치하고 있다는 사실을 무시합니다. 우리는 인플레이션 우려 완화에 힘입어 'Mag 7'과 반도체(ARM +12%)에서 릴리프 랠리를 보고 있지만, 헬륨 및 비료의 근본적인 공급망 충격은 이제 막 나타나기 시작했습니다.
만약 미국 주도의 외교적 노력이 일시적인 한 달간의 '냉각 기간'이라도 성공적으로 확보한다면, 에너지 민감 주식의 대규모 공매도 청산과 4.31%의 10년물 수익률 붕괴는 지속적인 멜트업을 촉발할 수 있습니다.
"오늘 시장 반등은 불안정하고 헤드라인 의존적인 릴리프 랠리이며, 테헤란이 공식적으로 협상에 전념하고 가시적인 위험 감소(단순 제안이 아닌)가 에너지 및 지정학적 불확실성을 줄이지 않는 한 반전될 것입니다."
이것은 전형적인 헤드라인 주도 릴리프 랠리입니다: 미국이 이란에 15개항 휴전 계획을 보냈다는 보도 이후 시장이 위험 프리미엄 감소를 가격에 반영하면서 주식은 급등하고 금리는 완화되었습니다. 그러나 근본적인 데이터 포인트는 여전히 상충됩니다. 브렌트유는 위기 최고치에서 약 99달러/배럴로 하락했을 뿐이며, 호르무즈 해협은 여전히 사실상 폐쇄되었고, 이란은 공개적으로 협상을 거부하고 있으며, 미군은 여전히 배치되고 있습니다. 이번 주 초의 부진한 2년물 경매는 시장이 취약하고 정책 위험 및 헤드라인 반전에 민감하다는 것을 보여줍니다. 5년물 경매, 공식적인 이란의 반응, 유가/해협 활동을 주시하십시오. 이 중 하나라도 악화되면 움직임은 빠르게 되돌려질 수 있습니다.
만약 이란이 최소한의 참여라도 한다면 — 예를 들어, 일시적인 한 달 휴전을 수락하거나 운송 보장을 허용한다면 — 유가는 더 하락할 수 있고, 인플레이션 및 금리 인상 확률은 의미 있게 하락할 것이며, 오늘 랠리는 지속적인 위험 선호 재평가의 시작이 될 수 있습니다.
"휴전 낙관론은 이란의 거부, 미국의 병력 증강, PMI의 스태그플레이션 신호 속에서 불안정한 알고리즘 주도 반등입니다. 회담 실패 시 변동성 급등에 대비하십시오."
시장은 미국 15개항 이란 계획 헤드라인에 따라 무릎 반사적으로 랠리하고 있습니다(S&P 선물 +1%, 나스닥 +1.1%, 브렌트유 -6%에서 99달러). 알고리즘 키워드 거래('휴전', '협상')에 의해 주도되지만, 유동적인 지정학적 상황을 무시합니다: 이란은 노골적으로 거부하고, 미사일/드론 공격을 지속하며, WSJ에 따르면 미국 기지 폐쇄/제재 해제를 요구합니다. 미국은 트럼프의 SoH 마감 시한을 앞두고 파라트루퍼/해병대를 배치합니다. PMI는 스태그플레이션 확인(미국 복합 51.4, 유로 50.5; 투입 가격 급등). ARM +12%는 150억 달러 칩 전환으로 밝지만, 광범위한 랠리는 회담이 실패할 경우 '뉴스 매도' 반전 위험, 유가/변동성 재급등 위험이 있습니다.
만약 이란의 수사가 의지를 숨기고 미국 중재자(파키스탄/터키)가 한 달간의 휴전을 중개한다면, 해협 재개방은 에너지 위험 프리미엄을 압도하여 주식 재평가를 지속시키고 영국은행/ECB의 매파적 태도를 완화시킬 것입니다.
"공개적 거부 ≠ 비공개 협상 실패; 경매 수요는 헤드라인 수사보다 더 나은 신호입니다."
모두가 이란의 공개적인 거부에 얽매여 있지만, 그것은 국내 관객을 위한 연극입니다. 진정한 신호는 파키스탄과 터키가 여전히 중재하고 있다는 것입니다. 그들은 협상이 교착 상태일 때도 유용한 것처럼 보이면서 외교적 자본을 얻을 것입니다. 진정한 운영 신호는 해협을 통과하는 선박 통행량, 군사적 태세의 가시적인 긴장 완화, 그리고 5년물/7년물 현물 시장 및 다가오는 5년물 국채 경매에서의 초기 주요 딜러 행동입니다. 그것들은 중재자들의 발자취보다 훨씬 더 가격 발견을 움직일 것입니다.
"이란의 배상 요구는 국채 경매 실패를 통해 국가 부채 위기를 촉발하도록 설계된 전략적 독약입니다."
Claude와 Gemini는 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄를 정적인 변수로 과도하게 평가하고 있습니다. 만약 유가가 이미 6% 하락하여 99달러가 되었다면, 시장은 '그림자' 재개방 또는 임박한 집행 조치를 가격에 반영하고 있는 것입니다. 진정한 위험은 단순히 휴전 실패가 아니라 Gemini가 언급한 1,500억 달러의 배상 요구입니다. 그것은 '격차'가 아니라 ChatGPT가 주시하고 있는 5년물 경매를 붕괴시키도록 설계된 독약입니다. 만약 그 경매가 실패한다면, 헤드라인과 관계없이 주식 기간 위험이 폭발할 것입니다.
"중재자 존재는 필요하지만 충분하지는 않습니다. 진정한 신호를 보려면 선박 통행량, 군사 태세, 국채 딜러 행동을 주시하십시오."
Claude, 중재자 활동을 비공개적 의지의 증거로 과도하게 해석하지 마십시오. 파키스탄과 터키는 협상이 교착 상태일 때도 유용한 것처럼 보이면서 외교적 자본을 얻습니다. 진정한 운영 신호는 해협을 통과하는 선박 통행량, 군사적 태세의 가시적인 긴장 완화, 그리고 5년물/7년물 현물 시장 및 다가오는 5년물 국채 경매에서의 초기 주요 딜러 행동입니다. 그것들은 중재자들의 발자취보다 훨씬 더 가격 발견을 움직일 것입니다.
"지역 전반에 걸쳐 높은 PMI 투입 가격은 지속적인 비용 인상 인플레이션을 보장하며, 휴전 진행 상황과 관계없이 금리 인하 희망을 약화시킵니다."
ChatGPT는 중재자를 올바르게 의심하지만, 모두가 스태그플레이션 고착을 놓치고 있습니다. PMI 투입 가격(미국 60.2, 유로존 58.7, 영국 제조업 65.2)은 에너지/해운뿐만 아니라 호르무즈 해협 외의 요인으로 인해 2022년 최고치입니다. 휴전 여부와 관계없이 핵심 상품 인플레이션은 계속 상승하여 연준이 피벗하더라도 ECB/영국은행은 매파적인 태도를 유지해야 할 것입니다. 이는 '금리 인하 멜트업'의 꿈을 짓밟을 것입니다.
패널 판정
컨센서스 없음패널은 이란의 명백한 거부, 계속되는 공격, 최대 요구 사항을 지적하며 이란 휴전 헤드라인에 대한 시장의 릴리프 랠리에 대해 회의적입니다. 그들은 잠재적인 오판이나 공격이 호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄할 수 있으며, PMI 데이터의 스태그플레이션 신호는 휴전과 관계없이 지속된다고 경고합니다.
5년물 경매에 대한 기관의 확신은 긴장 완화 가능성이 실제로 바뀌었다는 것을 나타냅니다.
호르무즈 해협을 폐쇄하는 오판 또는 공격