Kontrakty terminowe spadają, gdy ropa rośnie z powodu niepowodzeń w zawieszeniu broni, Nasdaq zagrożony zakończeniem 13-dniowej passy

Futures Slide As Oil Jumps On Ceasefire Setbacks, Nasdaq In Danger Of Ending 13-Day Streak

Futures are lower, but well off session lows,after a weekend of chaos in the Strait of Hormuz cast doubt over US-Iran peace talks ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire expiration. On Saturday, Iran said the Strait will be closed until the US blockade is lifted, with ships reporting attacks. The US then fired and seized an Iranian-flagged ship on Sunday. Both headlines point to a re-escalation, as Iran military has now vowed to retaliate. It remains unclear whether the peace talks will continue ahead of the April 22nd deadline: POLITICO yesterday reported that Trump will continue peace talks with Iran in Pakistan on Monday, while Iran said in a news conference that they have “no plan” for next round of negotiation (here), although subsequent reports from AP indicated the opposite. There’s a big earnings week ahead, and top Wall Street strategists expect resilient numbers to support equities. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% following a succession of record highs; the Nasdaq is down 0.4% and set to end a near-record stretch of 13 consecutive gains. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-1.2%), MSFT (-1.0%) and META (-1.0%) being the notable laggards. European stocks slid 1.1% while Asian stocks rose in a delayed catch up to the Friday melt up in the US. Bond yields rose sharply in Europe, whereas the moves in Treasuries were more modest. The dollar was little changed, erasing an earlier gain. WTI crude oil jumped $4.6 (or 5.5%) to $88.5; both base metals and precious metals are lower with gold briefly dropping below $4,800 an ounce, before recovering. The US session is quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly lower (Apple unchanged, Tesla -0.7%, Alphabet -1%, Amazon -1%, Meta -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%, Nvidia -0.9%)

Airlines and cruise operators are down as the prospects of fuel prices staying at elevated levels weigh on sentiment. American Airlines (AAL) -3%, Carnival (CCL) -2%.
Energy stocks are rising as US-Iran tensions flare up over the weekend. Chevron (CVX) +1%.
Psychedelic-related stocks rally after President Donald Trump signed an executive order to expedite research and access to the substances used outside the US to treat post-traumatic stress disorder. AtaiBeckley (ATAI) +27%.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) drops 14% after Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket failed to correctly place a satellite made by the Texas-based company in its intended orbit.
Avis Budget (CAR) drops 2% as Barclays downgrades to underweight following the stock’s near-vertical recent rally.
Fermi Inc. (FRMI) falls 19% after the power company said its chief executive officer and chief financial officers have stepped down as the firm tries to secure its first customer.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 5% after the Information reported that Google is in discussions with the semiconductor company to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently.
TopBuild Corp. (BLD) rises 18% after QXO Inc. said it’s acquiring the insulation company for about $17 billion. The acquisition will make QXO the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) gains 4% after agreeing to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group in a cash-and-stock transaction, adding to a string of recent deals in the industry.
In other corporate news, regulators across Asia are stepping up scrutiny of cybersecurity risks in their financial systems, as concerns over Anthropic PBC’s latest AI model Mythos spread. Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket launched to space on its third flight, reusing a booster for the first time but failing to correctly place the satellite it was carrying into its intended orbit. In deals, American Airlines said it’s not engaged with or interested in any discussions regarding a merger with United Airlines. QXO said it’s acquiring insulation firm TopBuild for about $17 billion, making it the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America. Patrick Industries and rival recreational-vehicle supplier LCI Industries are in talks to combine.

Monday’s risk-off moves are denting a rally that had erased all of the war-driven losses in US stocks. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, leaving it unclear whether the sides would meet for talks on Tuesday, with a truce set to expire shortly. Sentiment was dented after oil and natural gas prices jumped as Hormuz remained closed early Monday. Iran initially said ships could pass before abruptly stopping traffic less than 24 hours later, while the US Navy fired upon and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The energy crisis is rippling out in various ways. The WSJ reported that the UAE is said to be in talks with the US about a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the country into further crisis. The EU is planning to propose measures to “optimize” jet fuel distribution among member states, while China is becoming more dependent on the US for ethane gas. And traders are reassessing their playbooks as the war forces governments to become more self reliant.

Traders believe pressure on both parties to reach a deal remains high, even as volatility during negotiations is likely to be elevated. Iran’s state-run news agency cited President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying the war was in no one’s interest and that diplomatic avenues should be used to lower tensions.

“While the developments from the weekend certainly cooled the optimism, it did not derail it completely,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Markets keep expecting a near-term solution which will allow energy to flow again.”

Technology stocks took a breather on Monday after the sector drove much of the rebound in US equities, with the Magnificent Seven up 20% since the US benchmark hit its 2026 bottom on March 30. Despite the re-escalation in the Middle East, top strategists say the market can keep rallying despite the turmoil. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka disagrees with bearish views that revolve around stagflation and expects resilient earnings to keep supporting the market. Ben Snider at Goldman Sachs says strong but narrow positive earnings revisions support a narrow market rally, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson notes that early 1Q results have been strong and the earnings recovery is intact.

The earnings season, meanwhile, has been off to a strong start. S&P 500 companies that have published their results so far have seen their profits come in 11% above expectations, on aggregate, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence showed. Major companies releasing earnings this week include Tesla Inc. and Boeing Co. on Wednesday, followed by Intel Corp. the following day. The economic impact of seven weeks of war in the Middle East will also begin to emerge this week when purchasing manager indexes are published Thursday. “Earnings season is supportive and does matter, but the dominant driver is geopolitics. Once a deal is reached, attention will shift back to earnings,” said Patrik Lang, chief investment strategist at Global Gate Asset Management. “The strength may be somewhat concentrated, as much of the growth continues to come from the Magnificent Seven.”

While the situation in the Middle East remains in flux, traders will also focus on Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing this week to lead the Federal Reserve. The US two-year yield is once again below the central bank’s 3.75% ceiling after trading above the level for much of the war.

Besides Warsh's Tuesday Senate confirmation hearing, in economic data, March retail sales are due Tuesday, with economists projecting a sizable jump in overall retail sales mainly due to sharply increased spending on gasoline. PPI is due on Thursday, followed by the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April on Fridat. The preliminary reading set a record low.

The jump in energy prices hit Europe, where the Stoxx 600 falls 1%. Airlines are the biggest losers and cyclical shares such as autos, banks and consumer products are also among notable laggards. The energy sector is outperforming. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

Wacker Chemie advances as much as 2.5% after the company’s preliminary first-quarter Ebitda came in 18% ahead of consensus expectations.
Stocks related to photonics technology for AI data centers soared on Monday, with Soitec and Riber in France and UK-listed IQE up more than 10%, as a rally in the sector extended further.
Renishaw shares rise as much as 9.7% as the UK industrial instrumentation company lifts its full-year revenue and pre-tax profit guidance.
Plus500 shares rise as much as 4% after the trading platform said annual revenue and earnings should come in ahead of current expectations.
Advanced Medical Solutions shares rally as much as 19% after the maker of surgical and wound care products confirmed it is in discussions with TA Associates regarding a possible takeover offer.
Sanofi shares fall as much as 2.2% as BNP Paribas downgrades the French pharmaceutical stock to neutral from outperform on revised pipeline assumptions.
Loomis shares fall as much as 7.3% after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation to neutral from buy, saying that while good growth and profits are expected to continue in the near term, it is mostly priced into the market.
Odfjell Drilling shares drop as much as 7.3% after the company halted production at its Deepsea Atlantic facility following an incident where the rig’s blowout preventer fell to the seabed at an approximate depth of 1,100 meters.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as investors shrugged off heightened tensions between the US and Iran to focus on prospects for further talks down the road, as well as strong local tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring most of its advance. SK Hynix and Tencent were among the top positive contributors. Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the region, while South Korean shares erased their Iran war losses. While weekend hostilities cast doubt on when another round of Middle East negotiations may take place, risk sentiment has rebounded over the past couple of weeks. Earnings from Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix due Thursday are among key upcoming catalysts for the tech trade. As global gauges rebound and touch new highs one by one, however, some investors are cautious about being too optimistic.

“The clock is ticking, and it’s still unclear whether this relief rally has legs or if it’s simply a dead‑cat bounce,” said Sophie Huynh, a portfolio manager and strategist for dynamic asset allocation at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Since the ceasefire, there has been no increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which makes the market’s ability to shrug off the Iran conflict hard to justify.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index adds 0.1%. The Aussie dollar and yen are the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% each. The Norwegian krone outperforms

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields partially reversing an opening gap higher after weekend developments from the Middle East cast doubt on the prospects for peace talks ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline. Meanwhile, US Navy carried out its first seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are subsequently higher with Treasury yields, while S&P futures are down on the day. US yields cheaper by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with spreads broadly trading within a basis point of Friday session close. US 10-year yields traded around 4.27% with bunds and gilts lagging by 2bp and 4bp in the sector. European government bonds also underperform, with UK and German 10-year yields rising 4 bps and 3 bps respectively. US 10-year borrowing costs climb 1 bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals already. This week, syndicate desks anticipate sales around $20 billion to $25 billion, likely led by regional banks along with corporates coming out of their earnings blackout periods. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday and $26 billion 5-year TIPS Thursday. US economic data calendar slate empty for the session.

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 5% to around $95 a barrel after weekend developments cast doubt on the prospects for US-Iran peace talks. Precious metals slide, with spot silver down around 2%. Bitcoin rises back above $75,000. US session quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.5%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
Stoxx Europe 600 -1%
DAX -1.4%
CAC 40 -1%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.26%
VIX +2.1 points at 19.59
Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1194.19
euro little changed at $1.1761
WTI crude +5.9% at $88.79/barrel
Top Overnight News

Oil climbed and equity futures dropped after the US seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel and Tehran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, clouding prospects for peace talks.
An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Tuesday, despite Tehran’s statements that it had no intention of sending its negotiators while the US navy is continuing a blockade of its ports. Nikkei
US gas prices may remain at $3 per gallon or more until next year, contradicting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s prediction of relief by the summer. BBG
China’s set to import a record volume of US ethane in April as petrochemical producers seek alternative feedstocks due to the Iran war. Shipments may rise to 800,000 tons, JLC said, around 60% higher than average. BBG
There is a newfound sense of anxiety amongst battleground Republicans that their Senate majority isn’t as safe as they once thought. Democrats still face steep odds in their bid to flip the chamber, but there is persistent concern that the longer the Iran war drags on and the economy sputters, the more it could complicate their path to keeping their majority in November. Politico
China sent a group of warships to hold drills in the western Pacific Ocean, a move that comes as Japan joins massive exercises with the US and the Philippines for the first time. BBG
Google is in discussions with Marvell to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently. The Information
A weekend hack triggered a crisis of confidence among crypto investors, with users pulling billions from DeFi’s biggest lending platform. BBG
Warsh believes AI will trigger a productivity boom that keeps growth at a healthy level and allows the Fed to cut rates, but many of his future colleagues are skeptical of this thesis. WSJ
Iran News Wrap

Iran reversed the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and said it would remain under strict control and would not reopen while the US blockade of Iranian ports continues, with multiple reported attacks on commercial vessels following the re-closure. Tensions escalated after US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA as it attempted to breach the blockade, while President Trump said a separate Iranian vessel was intercepted and disabled after ignoring warnings. Iran condemned the seizure as piracy and warned it would retaliate, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire.