Autor Maksym Misichenko · The Guardian ·
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Panelists are cautious about the oil price rally driven by hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire, citing potential political risks, inventory overhang, and the limited impact of merely reopening the Strait of Hormuz without resolving underlying issues. They agree that the market is pricing in too much optimism too quickly.
Ryzyko: The potential failure of the tentative 60-day ceasefire or domestic political pushback in the US could lead to a violent mean reversion in energy prices.
Szansa: A durable resolution to the US-Iran conflict could keep oil prices rangebound above $80 due to OPEC+ discipline.
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Ceny ropy spadły w piątek, ponieważ inwestorzy liczyli na zakończenie wojny USA-Izraela z Iranem, co sprawiło, że surowiec jest gotowy na jeden z największych miesięcznych spadków w historii.
Cena kontraktów terminowych na ropę Brent, globalny punkt odniesienia, spadła o 1,3% do 91,54 USD i zbliża się do spadku o 17% od początku maja.
Cena kontraktów terminowych na ropę West Texas Intermediate, amerykański punkt odniesienia, spadła w piątek rano o 1,4% do 87,64 USD za baryłkę. Był to spadek o 7% w stosunku do szczytu z początku tego tygodnia na poziomie 94,70 USD.
Optymizm pojawił się po tym, jak Donald Trump rozesłał projekt porozumienia pokojowego w sprawie wojny w Iranie wśród sojuszników.
Amerykański serwis informacyjny Axios poinformował, że USA i Iran osiągnęły wstępne porozumienie w sprawie przedłużenia rozejmu o 60 dni, jednak dodał, że Trump jeszcze nie zgodził się na warunki. Wiceprezydent USA, JD Vance, powiedział, że porozumienie „jeszcze nie jest zawarte”, ale „bardzo blisko”.
Wojna w Iranie trwała 90 dni i spowodowała chaos w globalnej gospodarce po tym, jak Iran zamknął Cieśninę Ormuz dla żeglugi. Zamknęło to dużą część eksportu z Zatoki Perskiej, jednego z kluczowych regionów produkujących ropę na świecie.
Chociaż USA początkowo dążyły do zmiany reżimu w Iranie, ich ambicje wydają się zostać ograniczone do ponownego otwarcia cieśniny, a także osiągnięcia porozumienia w celu zapobieżenia budowie przez Iran broni jądrowej.
Henry Allen z Deutsche Bank powiedział, że rynki wykazują „narastający optymizm co do zakończenia konfliktu”. Dodał: „Spadek cen ropy oznacza, że inwestorzy zaczęli wyceniać bardziej stagflacyjne scenariusze dla globalnej gospodarki, z wyraźnym odbiciem się na wielu klasach aktywów”. Fraza stagflacja odnosi się do szkodliwej kombinacji stagnacji wzrostu PKB i wzrostu cen inflacyjnych.
Rynki w całej Azji odnotowały silny wzrost. Japoński Nikkei 225 wzrósł o 2,5%, a Koreański Kospi zyskał 3,6%. Hongkoński Hang Seng wzrósł o 0,9%, choć wyniki akcji na kontynentalnych Chinach były bardziej stonowane. Szanghajski CSI 300 spadł o 0,45%.
W Europie brytyjski indeks blue chip FTSE 100 otworzył się w piątek rano o około 0,1% wyżej, a szerszy Stoxx Europe 600 zyskał 0,3%.
Nastąpił wzrost o 0,6% na amerykańskim indeksie S&P 500 w czwartek, który doprowadził najbardziej śledzony amerykański indeks akcji do kolejnego rekordowego poziomu. Stopa zwrotu z 10-letnich amerykańskich obligacji skarbowych spadła do 4,45%, kontynuując spadek, ponieważ inwestorzy powitali potencjał niższej inflacji. Stopy zwrotu poruszają się odwrotnie do cen obligacji, które wzrosły, gdy inwestorzy kupili więcej.
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"Tentative ceasefire language without Trump's signature leaves oil supply risks materially underpriced."
Oil prices have fallen sharply with Brent at $91.54 and WTI at $87.64 on tentative US-Iran ceasefire hopes, setting up one of the largest monthly drops on record. The Axios-reported 60-day extension remains unsigned by Trump, while VP Vance called any deal 'not there yet.' The 90-day conflict's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already cut Gulf exports, yet markets from the Nikkei to the S&P 500 are pricing out stagflation risks and driving Treasury yields to 4.45%. This relief rally assumes rapid de-escalation without confirming supply restoration timelines.
The strongest case against expecting oil to rebound is that even a fragile 60-day truce could quickly restore Hormuz traffic and ease physical shortages faster than traders anticipate, locking in lower prices.
"Oil price relief is real and tradeable, but equity and bond rallies are priced on a peace deal that does not yet exist and whose terms remain opaque."
The article conflates two separate things: oil price relief (real, measurable) and a peace deal (speculative, not finalized). Brent down 17% since May is significant, but the article never explains why oil spiked that high in the first place—was it justified? More critically: the Strait of Hormuz closure is mentioned as causing 'chaos,' but if a deal merely reopens it without resolving underlying Iran nuclear/sanctions issues, we get temporary relief followed by renewed volatility. The equity rallies (Nikkei +2.5%, S&P 500 ATH) are real, but they're priced on *hope*, not confirmation. Treasury yields falling to 4.45% assumes disinflation sticks—that's not guaranteed if geopolitical risk simply pauses rather than resolves.
Trump's draft agreement hasn't been accepted by Iran, JD Vance explicitly said 'not there yet,' and the article provides zero detail on what Iran actually gets in return—suggesting either the deal is incomplete or the terms are being obscured. If negotiations collapse, we've just created a false rally that unwinds violently.
"The current equity rally is predicated on a diplomatic breakthrough that is far from guaranteed, creating significant downside risk if the ceasefire negotiations stall."
The market is aggressively pricing in a geopolitical 'all-clear' signal, but this rally rests on a fragile foundation of diplomatic optimism. While the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is undeniably bullish for global growth and core inflation, the market is ignoring the 'Trump-Vance' friction mentioned in the text. If this tentative 60-day ceasefire fails to materialize or faces domestic political pushback, we risk a violent mean reversion in energy prices. With Brent already down 17% since May, the downside is limited, but the upside volatility remains high if the Strait remains contested. Investors should be wary of the S&P 500's record highs, which now assume a perfect geopolitical resolution.
The market is not just pricing in peace, but a structural shift in Iran's regional influence; even a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a massive supply glut that forces oil prices significantly lower than current levels.
"Near-term oil weakness from peace optimism is fragile; any deal setback or renewed sanctions could abruptly reverse the move and push prices back higher."
The article leans on peace hopes as the driver of a lower oil price, but the optimism is fragile. Even with a longer ceasefire, Iran’s exports remain constrained by sanctions, limited ramp-up ability, and export infrastructure. Reopening Hormuz may ease near-term chokepoints, yet it doesn’t guarantee durable supply growth. OPEC+ discipline, potential outages in Libya/Nigeria, and a still-compromised global growth backdrop cap downside risk. The piece glosses over timing risk (deal durability could reverse quickly) and ignores that futures markets are pricing multiple scenarios. A flare-up or renewed sanctions could snap prices higher far faster than the decline suggested here.
If a durable accord actually emerges and sanctions ease, oil could stay lower for longer as supply normalizes; the article’s fear of upside may prove timely rather than the other way around.
"Temporary Hormuz reopening risks sharper oil price drop from inventory release."
Claude notes the deal's speculative status but misses the inventory overhang from 90 days of curtailed Gulf exports. Reopening Hormuz could release stockpiled Iranian barrels faster than demand absorbs them, driving Brent below the current $91.54 and pressuring yields below 4.45% via growth concerns rather than pure disinflation.
"The deal's political fragility inside the Trump administration poses more immediate downside risk to this rally than the supply-side mechanics everyone's debating."
Grok's inventory overhang thesis is testable but incomplete. Yes, 90 days of curtailed exports create stockpiles, but Iranian crude quality (heavy, sour) and buyer relationships matter—China won't absorb unlimited barrels at any price. More critically: nobody's addressed whether a 60-day extension even survives Trump's second-term Iran policy. Vance's 'not there yet' suggests domestic political risk that could crater this entire rally faster than inventory dynamics play out.
"OPEC+ will likely intervene to prevent a price collapse regardless of any temporary resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz."
Claude is right to highlight the political volatility, but both Grok and Claude are ignoring the 'OPEC+ floor.' Even with a, let's call it, 'Hormuz reopening,' Saudi Arabia and Russia have effectively managed supply to keep Brent above $80 for months. A 60-day truce doesn't dismantle the cartel's production quotas. The market is betting on a supply glut that OPEC+ will aggressively counteract to defend their fiscal breakevens. This rally is fundamentally mispricing the cartel's resolve.
"Durability of sanctions relief and OPEC+ reaction, not just short-term inventory, are the real price drivers."
Focus on inventory overhang distracts from policy durability. Even if 90 days of Gulf export curtailment created stockpiles, shipment resumption hinges on sanctions relief, Iranian loading, and buyer demand; Libyan/Nigerian outages and OPEC+ responses matter more for price trajectory than arbitrary Brent levels. A fragile truce risks sharp reversals; a truly durable accord could keep prices rangebound above $80 due to cartel discipline.
Panelists are cautious about the oil price rally driven by hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire, citing potential political risks, inventory overhang, and the limited impact of merely reopening the Strait of Hormuz without resolving underlying issues. They agree that the market is pricing in too much optimism too quickly.
A durable resolution to the US-Iran conflict could keep oil prices rangebound above $80 due to OPEC+ discipline.
The potential failure of the tentative 60-day ceasefire or domestic political pushback in the US could lead to a violent mean reversion in energy prices.