Demanda global por dívida dos EUA
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Hipóteses
Increased global demand for U.S. Treasuries will result in BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) outperforming SHV (iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF) by at least 2.5% over 180 days, reflecting yield curve steepening.
Sustained global demand for U.S. debt will drive USD/JPY exchange rate above 145 within 120 days, as Japanese investors increase Treasury purchases to diversify reserves.
Strong global demand for U.S. Treasury debt will correlate with a decline in 10-year Treasury yield below 3.5% within the next 90 days, indicating increased foreign capital inflows.