Bởi Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
Các tác nhân AI nghĩ gì về tin tức này
The panel is divided on Microsoft's (MSFT) valuation and OpenAI partnership. While some see it as cheap and a potential catalyst for growth, others warn about execution risks, capex timing, and the uncertainty around OpenAI's profitability and contract terms.
Rủi ro: OpenAI's profitability and potential shift in revenue share terms could compress Microsoft's margins and upside.
Cơ hội: Strong adoption of Microsoft 365 E7 and solid Azure AI demand could drive significant margin expansion.
Phân tích này được tạo bởi đường dẫn StockScreener — bốn LLM hàng đầu (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) nhận các lời nhắc giống hệt nhau với các biện pháp bảo vệ chống ảo tưởng tích hợp. Đọc phương pháp →
Over the past 10 years, Microsoft stock has rarely been as cheap as it is now.
Its updated agreement with OpenAI should add to its tailwinds.
The latest update to the widely used Microsoft 365 suite is expected to noticeably boost the company's bottom line.
Rarely over the course of its existence has Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) not been a good stock to buy and hold. It's now one of the largest and most successful companies of all time.
But as the market heads toward its next earnings season, this is a particularly good time to buy Microsoft stock. Here are three reasons why.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Over the past decade, Microsoft stock has rarely been as cheap relative to its earnings as it is right now. It is trading at around 24 times earnings and 21 times forward earnings. The last time it was anywhere near this cheap was during the bear market of 2022. The last time before that was in 2018.
Microsoft stock is down about 12% year to date, and off by about 21% from its October peak. Part of the reason for the sell-off was that, after a three-year bull market, Microsoft was a tad overvalued at the end of 2025, as were most big tech stocks, so many investors likely cashed out.
But unlike other "Magnificent Seven" tech giants such as Amazon and Nvidia, Microsoft has not bounced back from its first-quarter retreat. This is primarily due to investors' concerns about its massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI), its slowing AI cloud growth, and its declining free cash flow. In addition, it may have been tainted by concerns about OpenAI's path to profitability, given that OpenAI is a major Microsoft partner.
But these concerns are starting to subside.
In the next fiscal quarter, Microsoft should start to reap the benefits from its latest agreement with OpenAI. In summary, Microsoft will remain OpenAI's primary cloud partner, and it will retain its license to use OpenAI intellectual property (IP) for models and products through 2032. But their relationship is no longer exclusive; Microsoft can now form new partnerships, such as its recently expanded relationship with Anthropic.
Further, Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI, but OpenAI's revenue share payments to Microsoft will continue through 2030. In addition, Microsoft remains a major shareholder in OpenAI. These changes will reduce Microsoft's overall exposure to OpenAI while likely boosting the profits it accrues from the company.
While Microsoft's revenue share is capped, the overall result should be a net positive for it. Analysts at Wedbush predict that it will result in $6 billion in income from OpenAI, up from the previously anticipated $4 billion. This will help alleviate investors' concerns about the tech giant's cash flow.
On May 1, the company rolled out Microsoft 365 E7, its first major update to the popular software suite since 2015. The Microsoft 365 E7 platform is designed for businesses and includes Microsoft Office, agentic AI through Copilot, Teams, cybersecurity, and other products all in one package. It also features a new product, Microsoft 365 Agent, which the company describes as a "control plane that extends companies' existing governance, identity, security, and management frameworks to agents." In other words, it helps companies use, manage, and monitor AI agents across the enterprise, not just Microsoft AI agents.
The company is charging $99 per month per user for Microsoft 365 E7, and the platform is expected to generate significant revenue. The last update, E5, goes for about $60 per month per user, so if even a fraction of its clients upgrade to the new service, it would represent a meaningful revenue increase.
Analysts at Evercore say the E7 platform could boost Microsoft's revenue by 2.4% to 2.5% in the next fiscal year.
Overall, 95% of analysts covering Microsoft rate it a buy. It has a median 12-month price target of $550 per share, which is about 30% higher than its current price.
Beyond those near-term catalysts for the stock price, there are longer-term tailwinds. Microsoft should also benefit from the major investments it's making in data centers and AI infrastructure. So I would not be surprised to see the stock rise heading into the next earnings season.
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
Nvidia:if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009,you’d have $555,736!Apple:*if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008,you’d have $59,562!Netflix:if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004,you’d have $465,733!
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
**Stock Advisor returns as of May 29, 2026. *
Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Evercore, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Bốn mô hình AI hàng đầu thảo luận bài viết này
"MSFT's valuation discount is justified by rising AI capex uncertainty that the new OpenAI terms and E7 do not fully offset."
The article pushes MSFT as historically cheap at 21x forward earnings with OpenAI contract tweaks and the $99/month E7 suite as near-term catalysts. Yet it downplays the scale of ongoing AI infrastructure spend that already pressured 2025 free cash flow and could widen further if hyperscale ROI lags. E7 uptake faces enterprise budget scrutiny while non-exclusive OpenAI terms reduce lock-in benefits. Wedbush's $6B income forecast assumes revenue share continuation that may not hold if OpenAI diversifies faster. These execution risks around capex timing and monetization are not stress-tested against 2026 guidance.
Even modest E7 attach rates or better-than-expected Azure AI margins could trigger a rapid re-rating to 27-28x, overriding capex concerns as they did in 2023.
"MSFT is fairly valued at 24x forward P/E, not cheap, and the three catalysts are priced in at current levels—upside requires all three to exceed consensus, which is a binary bet, not a margin-of-safety play."
The article conflates valuation cheapness with opportunity, but 24x forward P/E on MSFT isn't historically cheap—it's median for a mega-cap software compounder. The OpenAI deal is real upside, but the $6B income claim needs scrutiny: that's incremental to what? The E7 rollout at $99/user is material only if adoption scales meaningfully beyond E5's installed base. The article ignores that MSFT's capex concerns persist regardless of OpenAI tweaks, and the 30% analyst price target assumes execution on all three catalysts simultaneously. Missing: competitive pressure from AWS/Google on AI infrastructure, and whether E7's $39/month premium justifies switching costs for enterprises already locked into E5.
If E7 adoption disappoints (enterprises often resist mid-cycle upgrades) and OpenAI's profitability remains uncertain, the stock could re-test $400 before earnings, making the 'cheap' framing a value trap.
"Microsoft’s transition to a non-exclusive OpenAI partnership combined with the high-margin E7 subscription tier provides a clear path to re-rating the stock back toward its previous highs."
Microsoft (MSFT) is currently priced at a forward P/E of roughly 21x, which is attractive for a company with its cloud and AI moat. The E7 rollout is a classic 'upsell' lever, but the real catalyst is the shift in the OpenAI partnership. By moving toward a non-exclusive model and securing a revenue share, Microsoft is effectively de-risking its AI exposure while maintaining infrastructure dominance. If the $99/user E7 price point sees even a 15% adoption rate among enterprise clients, the margin expansion will be significant. However, investors must watch the CAPEX intensity; if AI server depreciation outpaces software revenue growth, the 'cheap' valuation will quickly become a value trap.
The thesis assumes enterprise customers will pay a 65% premium for E7, but if IT budgets tighten due to macroeconomic headwinds, Microsoft may face a 'feature fatigue' wall where clients refuse to pay for AI agents they aren't ready to deploy.
"MSFT's upside hinges on durable AI-driven revenue and margin expansion materializing faster than investors expect; otherwise the current cheap multiple risks a re-rating rather than meaningful upside."
Microsoft looks cheaper on both trailing and forward bases, and the OpenAI deal tweaks economics in a way that could boost margins while preserving upside from AI IP. Yet the implied upside rests on several moving parts: growing adoption of Microsoft 365 E7, solid Azure AI demand, and a sustained data-center buildout. The Evercore guidance of a 2.4%-2.5% revenue uplift from E7 is not outsized for a $2+ trillion company, and OpenAI’s profitability path remains uncertain. The non-exclusive wording and the broader AI capex cycle mean the stock could underperform if enterprise AI budgets weaken or if data-center costs rise faster than expected. In short, the upside is real but not guaranteed.
The strongest countercase is that AI hype may be peaking; if Azure AI momentum slows or OpenAI revenue remains below expectations, the expensive multiple could compress. Moreover, the non-exclusive OpenAI deal and rising data-center costs could erode margins and blunt the E7 payoff.
"Non-exclusive OpenAI terms could cut revenue share faster than E7 offsets, amplifying margin pressure."
ChatGPT flags OpenAI profitability uncertainty but misses how non-exclusive terms accelerate diversification risk: OpenAI could route more inference to AWS or Google Cloud within 18 months, eroding the $6B share faster than E7 attach rates offset. This directly pressures Azure margins beyond the capex concerns already noted, especially if enterprise AI budgets flatten in 2025. The 2.4% revenue uplift assumption then becomes optimistic without lock-in.
"OpenAI's path to profitability, not just diversification speed, determines whether the $6B income forecast holds."
Grok's 18-month diversification timeline is speculative—OpenAI's infrastructure lock-in to Azure runs deeper than routing inference. But the real miss: nobody addressed whether $6B assumes OpenAI stays loss-making or reaches profitability. If OpenAI turns cash-flow positive, Microsoft's revenue share could compress sharply, flipping the entire thesis. That's a bigger tail risk than capex timing.
"Microsoft's revenue share from OpenAI is likely inversely correlated with OpenAI's success, creating a structural ceiling on the partnership's financial benefit."
Claude, your focus on OpenAI's path to profitability as a margin-compressor for MSFT is the critical missing link. If OpenAI reaches profitability, the revenue-share mechanics likely shift from a gross-revenue participation to a net-income share, significantly diluting Microsoft's take. We are treating the $6B as a fixed annuity, but it is a variable royalty tied to OpenAI's own burning P&L. If they succeed, Microsoft's 'AI tax' on them likely shrinks.
"OpenAI profitability could force a shift from gross-revenue to a net-income share, dampening Microsoft's upside."
Claude's caveat about the $6B revenue claim hinges on a fixed gross-revenue share; that risk isn't baked into the math. If OpenAI becomes profitable, Microsoft may shift to a net-income or tiered structure, compressing the upside even with strong E7 adoption. Translation: the bullish thesis rests not just on Azure hosting and E7, but on OpenAI's profitability trajectory and contract terms; a breather could erase a chunk of the supposed 'easy' uplift.
The panel is divided on Microsoft's (MSFT) valuation and OpenAI partnership. While some see it as cheap and a potential catalyst for growth, others warn about execution risks, capex timing, and the uncertainty around OpenAI's profitability and contract terms.
Strong adoption of Microsoft 365 E7 and solid Azure AI demand could drive significant margin expansion.
OpenAI's profitability and potential shift in revenue share terms could compress Microsoft's margins and upside.