| 期间 | EPS Actual | EPS 预期 | 惊喜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026年3月31日 | $0.41 | $0.38 | 0.03% |
| 2025年12月31日 | $0.50 | $0.45 | 0.05% |
| 2025年9月30日 | $0.50 | $0.56 | -0.06% |
| 2025年6月30日 | $0.40 | $0.44 | -0.04% |
| 2025年3月31日 | $0.27 | $0.40 | -0.13% |
| 股票代码 | 市值 | P/E | 营收同比增长 | 净利润率 | ROE | 毛利率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | — | 416.4 | -2.9% | — | — | — |
| GM | $73.51B | 24.9 | -1.3% | 1.5% | 4.3% | — |
| F | — | -6.4 | 1.2% | -4.4% | -20.3% | — |
| RIVN | $24.44B | -6.4 | 8.4% | -67.7% | -68.3% | 2.7% |
| THO | $6.12B | 18.8 | -4.6% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 14.0% |
| LCID | $3.46B | -0.9 | 67.6% | -199.3% | -172.7% | — |
| WGO | $1.86B | 39.5 | -5.9% | 0.92% | 2.1% | 13.1% |
| FFAI | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SEV | — | -2.4 | — | — | -185.8% | — |
| CENN | $199.4K | -0.0 | -42.2% | -403.7% | -123.6% | -12.8% |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.83B | $97.69B | $96.77B | $81.46B | $53.82B | $31.54B | $24.58B | $21.46B | $11.76B | $7.00B | $4.05B | $3.20B | |
| Cost of Revenue | $77.73B | $80.24B | $79.11B | $60.61B | $40.22B | $24.91B | $20.51B | $17.42B | $9.54B | $5.40B | $3.12B | $2.32B | |
| Gross Profit | $17.09B | $17.45B | $17.66B | $20.85B | $13.61B | $6.63B | $4.07B | $4.04B | $2.22B | $1.60B | $924M | $882M | |
| R&D Expense | $6.41B | $4.54B | $3.97B | $3.08B | $2.59B | $1.49B | $1.34B | $1.46B | $1.38B | $834M | $718M | $465M | |
| SG&A Expense | $5.83B | $5.15B | $4.80B | $3.95B | $4.52B | $3.15B | $2.65B | $2.83B | $2.48B | $1.43B | $922M | $604M | |
| Operating Expenses | $12.74B | $10.37B | $8.77B | $7.20B | $7.08B | $4.64B | $4.14B | $4.43B | $3.85B | $2.27B | $1.64B | $1.07B | |
| Operating Income | $4.36B | $7.08B | $8.89B | $13.66B | $6.52B | $1.99B | $-69M | $-388M | $-1.63B | $-667M | $-717M | $-187M | |
| Interest Expense | · | · | $156M | $191M | $371M | $748M | $685M | $663M | $471M | $199M | $119M | $101M | |
| Interest Income | $1.68B | $1.57B | $1.07B | $297M | $56M | $30M | $44M | $24M | $19M | $9M | $2M | $1M | |
| Other Non-op | $-419M | $695M | $172M | $-43M | $135M | $-122M | $45M | $22M | $-125M | $111M | $-42M | $2M | |
| Pretax Income | $5.28B | $8.99B | $9.97B | $13.72B | $6.34B | $1.15B | $-665M | $-1.00B | $-2.21B | $-746M | $-876M | $-285M | |
| Income Tax | $1.42B | $1.84B | $-5.00B | $1.13B | $699M | $292M | $110M | $58M | $32M | $27M | $13M | $9M | |
| Net Income | $3.79B | $7.09B | $15.00B | $12.56B | $5.52B | $721M | $-862M | $-976M | $-1.96B | $-675M | $-889M | $-294M | |
| EPS (Basic) | $1.18 | $2.23 | $4.73 | $4.02 | $1.87 | $0.25 | $-0.98 | $-1.14 | $-11.83 | $-4.68 | $-6.93 | · | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.08 | $2.04 | $4.30 | $3.62 | $1.63 | $0.21 | $-0.98 | $-1.14 | $-11.83 | $-4.68 | $-6.93 | · | |
| Shares (Basic) | 3,225,000,000 | 3,197,000,000 | 3,174,000,000 | 3,130,000,000 | 2,959,000,000 | 2,798,000,000 | 887,000,000 | 853,000,000 | 166,000,000 | 144,212,000 | 128,202,000 | · | |
| Shares (Diluted) | 3,528,000,000 | 3,498,000,000 | 3,485,000,000 | 3,475,000,000 | 3,386,000,000 | 3,249,000,000 | 887,000,000 | 853,000,000 | 166,000,000 | 144,212,000 | 128,202,000 | · | |
| EBITDA | · | · | $8.89B | $13.66B | · | · | · | $-388M | $-863M | $-190M | $-438M | $-31M |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $16.51B | $16.14B | $16.40B | $16.25B | $17.58B | $19.38B | $6.27B | $3.69B | $3.37B | $3.39B | $1.20B | $1.91B | |
| Short-term Investments | $27.55B | $20.42B | $12.70B | $5.93B | $131M | · | · | · | · | · | $17M | · | |
| Receivables | $4.58B | $4.42B | $3.51B | $2.95B | $1.91B | $1.89B | $1.32B | $949M | $515M | $499M | $169M | $227M | |
| Inventory | $12.39B | $12.02B | $13.63B | $12.84B | $5.76B | $4.10B | $3.55B | $3.11B | $2.26B | $2.07B | $1.28B | $954M | |
| Prepaid Expense | $7.62B | $5.36B | $3.39B | $2.94B | $1.72B | $1.35B | $959M | $366M | $268M | $194M | $116M | $76M | |
| Current Assets | $68.64B | $58.36B | $49.62B | $40.92B | $27.10B | $26.72B | $12.10B | $8.31B | $6.57B | $6.26B | $2.78B | $3.18B | |
| PP&E (Net) | · | $35.84B | $29.73B | $23.55B | $18.88B | $12.75B | $10.40B | $11.33B | $10.03B | $5.98B | $3.40B | $1.83B | |
| PP&E (Gross) | · | $51.42B | $41.78B | $32.59B | $25.61B | $17.86B | $14.13B | $14.03B | $11.75B | $6.98B | $3.97B | $2.12B | |
| Accum. Depreciation | · | $15.59B | $12.06B | $9.04B | $6.73B | $5.12B | $3.73B | $2.70B | $1.72B | $997M | $571M | $293M | |
| Goodwill | $257M | $244M | $253M | $194M | $200M | $207M | $198M | $68M | $60M | · | · | · | |
| Intangibles | $124M | $150M | $178M | $215M | $257M | $313M | $339M | $282M | $362M | $376M | $13M | · | |
| Other Non-current Assets | $5.04B | $4.61B | $4.53B | $3.87B | $2.14B | $1.54B | $1.47B | $572M | $273M | $217M | $47M | $43M | |
| Total Assets | $137.81B | $122.07B | $106.62B | $82.34B | $62.13B | $52.15B | $34.31B | $29.74B | $28.66B | $22.66B | $8.07B | $5.83B | |
| Accounts Payable | $13.37B | $12.47B | $14.43B | $15.26B | $10.03B | $6.05B | $3.77B | $3.40B | $2.39B | $1.86B | $916M | $778M | |
| Accrued Liabilities | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | $2.09B | $1.73B | $1.21B | $423M | $269M | |
| Current Liabilities | $31.71B | $28.82B | $28.75B | $26.71B | $19.70B | $14.25B | $10.67B | $9.99B | $7.67B | $5.83B | $2.81B | $2.11B | |
| Capital Leases | $5.39B | $4.60B | $3.67B | $2.16B | $1.67B | $1.25B | $956M | $993M | $589M | $77M | $17M | $12M | |
| Other Non-current Liabilities | $12.86B | $10.49B | $8.15B | $5.33B | $3.55B | $3.33B | $2.69B | $2.71B | $2.44B | $1.89B | $365M | $155M | |
| Total Liabilities | $54.94B | $48.39B | $43.01B | $36.44B | $30.55B | $28.42B | $26.20B | $23.43B | $23.02B | $16.75B | $6.94B | $4.86B | |
| Long-term Debt | $6.58B | $5.54B | $2.68B | $1.03B | $4.25B | $8.46B | $10.40B | $8.41B | $8.83B | $5.89B | · | $2.96B | |
| Common Stock | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $1M | $1M | $0 | $169.0K | $161.0K | $131.0K | $126.0K | |
| Paid-in Capital | · | · | · | · | · | $27.26B | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Retained Earnings | $39.00B | $35.21B | $27.88B | $12.88B | $329M | $-5.40B | $-6.08B | $-5.32B | $-4.97B | $-3.00B | $-2.32B | $-1.43B | |
| AOCI | $361M | $-670M | $-143M | $-361M | $54M | $363M | $-36M | $-8M | $33M | $-24M | $-4M | $-22.0K | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $82.14B | $72.91B | $62.63B | $44.70B | $30.19B | $22.23B | $6.62B | $4.92B | $4.24B | $4.75B | $1.08B | $912M | |
| Liabilities + Equity | $137.81B | $122.07B | $106.62B | $82.34B | $62.13B | $52.15B | $34.31B | $29.74B | $28.66B | $22.66B | $8.07B | $5.83B | |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,751,000,000 | 3,216,000,000 | 3,185,000,000 | 3,164,000,000 | 3,100,000,000 | 960,000,000 | 905,000,000 | 173,000,000 | 168,797,000 | 161,561,000 | 131,425,000 | 125,688,000 |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D&A | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | $769M | $477M | $279M | $156M | |
| Stock-based Comp | $2.83B | $2.00B | $1.81B | $1.56B | $2.12B | $1.73B | $898M | $749M | $467M | $334M | $198M | $156M | |
| Deferred Tax | $123M | $477M | $-6.35B | $-196M | $-149M | $40M | $19M | $32M | $-3M | $-28M | $2M | $-56.0K | |
| Amort. of Intangibles | · | · | · | · | $51M | $51M | $44M | $66M | $40M | · | · | · | |
| Restructuring | $390M | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Other Non-cash | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | $668M | $-233M | $-115M | $-76M | |
| Operating Cash Flow | $14.75B | $14.92B | $13.26B | $14.72B | $11.50B | $5.94B | $2.40B | $2.10B | $-61M | $-124M | $-524M | $-57M | |
| CapEx | $8.53B | $11.34B | $8.90B | $7.16B | $6.48B | $3.16B | $1.33B | $2.10B | $3.42B | $1.28B | $1.63B | $970M | |
| Investing Cash Flow | $-15.48B | $-18.79B | $-15.58B | $-11.97B | $-7.87B | $-3.13B | $-1.44B | $-2.34B | $-4.20B | $-1.08B | · | · | |
| Stock Issued | · | · | · | $0 | $0 | $12.27B | $848M | · | $400M | $1.70B | $730M | · | |
| Net Stock Activity | · | · | · | $0 | · | · | · | · | $400M | $1.70B | $730M | · | |
| Financing Cash Flow | $1.14B | $3.85B | $2.59B | $-3.53B | $-5.20B | $9.97B | $1.53B | $574M | $4.42B | $3.74B | · | · | |
| Net Change in Cash | $579M | $-152M | $265M | $-1.22B | $-1.76B | $13.12B | $2.51B | $312M | $198M | $2.53B | $-709M | $1.06B | |
| Taxes Paid | $1.23B | $1.33B | $1.12B | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Free Cash Flow | · | · | $4.36B | $7.57B | · | · | · | $-3M | $-3.48B | $-1.40B | $-2.16B | $-1.03B | |
| Levered FCF | · | · | $4.12B | $7.39B | · | · | · | $-704M | $-3.95B | $-1.61B | $-2.28B | $-1.13B |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | · | · | 18.2% | 25.6% | · | · | · | 18.8% | 18.9% | 22.9% | 22.8% | 27.6% | |
| Operating Margin | · | · | 9.2% | 16.8% | · | · | · | -1.8% | -13.9% | -9.5% | -17.7% | -5.8% | |
| Net Margin | · | · | 15.5% | 15.4% | · | · | · | -4.5% | -16.7% | -9.6% | -22.0% | -9.2% | |
| Pretax Margin | · | · | 10.3% | 16.8% | · | · | · | -4.7% | -18.8% | -10.7% | -21.6% | -8.9% | |
| EBITDA Margin | · | · | 9.2% | 16.8% | · | · | · | -1.8% | -7.3% | -2.7% | -10.8% | -0.96% | |
| ROA | · | · | 15.9% | 17.4% | · | · | · | -3.3% | -7.6% | -4.4% | -12.8% | -7.1% | |
| ROE | · | · | 27.9% | 33.5% | · | · | · | -21.3% | -43.6% | -23.1% | -88.8% | -37.2% | |
| ROIC | · | · | 21.3% | 28.0% | · | · | · | -8.3% | -39.1% | -14.5% | -66.8% | -21.1% |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | · | · | 1.7 | 1.5 | · | · | · | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | |
| Quick Ratio | · | · | 1.1 | 0.9 | · | · | · | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | |
| Interest Coverage | · | · | 57.0 | 71.5 | · | · | · | -0.6 | -3.5 | -3.4 | -6.0 | -1.9 |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | · | · | 1.0 | 1.1 | · | · | · | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | |
| Inventory Turnover | · | · | 6.0 | 6.5 | · | · | · | 6.5 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | |
| Receivables Turnover | · | · | 30.0 | 33.5 | · | · | · | 29.3 | 23.2 | 21.0 | 20.5 | 23.2 |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | -2.9% | 0.95% | 18.8% | 51.3% | 70.7% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y | 5.2% | 22.0% | 45.3% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 24.6% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| EPS YoY | -47.1% | -52.6% | 18.8% | 122.1% | 676.2% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| EPS CAGR 3Y | -33.2% | 7.8% | 173.6% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| EPS CAGR 5Y | 38.8% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Net Income YoY | -46.5% | -52.7% | 19.4% | 127.5% | 665.5% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Net Income CAGR 3Y | -32.9% | 8.7% | 175.0% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Net Income CAGR 5Y | 39.4% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 指标 | 趋势 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue TTM | $94.83B | $97.69B | $96.77B | $81.46B | $53.82B | $31.54B | $24.58B | $21.46B | $11.76B | $7.00B | $4.05B | $3.20B | |
| Net Income TTM | $3.79B | $7.09B | $15.00B | $12.56B | $5.52B | $721M | $-862M | $-976M | $-1.96B | $-675M | $-889M | $-294M | |
| Market Cap | · | · | $791.41B | $389.74B | · | · | · | $3.83B | $3.50B | $2.30B | $2.10B | $1.86B | |
| P/E | 416.4 | 198.0 | 57.8 | 34.0 | 216.1 | 1120.1 | -28.5 | -19.5 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -2.3 | · | |
| P/S | · | · | 8.2 | 4.8 | · | · | · | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | |
| P/B | · | · | 12.6 | 8.7 | · | · | · | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
| P / Tangible Book | 20.6 | 17.9 | 12.7 | 8.8 | · | 10.4 | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| P / Cash Flow | · | · | 59.7 | 26.5 | · | · | · | 1.8 | -57.8 | -18.6 | -4.0 | -32.5 | |
| P / FCF | · | · | 181.6 | 51.5 | · | · | · | -1310.6 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -1.8 | |
| Earnings Yield | 0.24% | 0.51% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.46% | 0.09% | -3.5% | -5.1% | -57.0% | -32.9% | -43.3% | · |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.39B | $24.90B | $28.09B | $22.50B | $19.34B | $25.71B | $25.18B | $25.50B | $21.30B | $25.17B | $23.35B | $24.93B | $23.33B | $24.32B | $21.45B | $16.93B | |
| Cost of Revenue | $17.67B | $19.89B | $23.04B | $18.62B | $16.18B | $21.53B | $20.18B | $20.92B | $17.61B | $20.73B | $19.17B | $20.39B | $18.82B | $18.54B | $16.07B | $12.70B | |
| Gross Profit | $4.72B | $5.01B | $5.05B | $3.88B | $3.15B | $4.18B | $5.00B | $4.58B | $3.70B | $4.44B | $4.18B | $4.53B | $4.51B | $5.78B | $5.38B | $4.23B | |
| R&D Expense | $1.95B | $1.78B | $1.63B | $1.59B | $1.41B | $1.28B | $1.04B | $1.07B | $1.15B | $1.09B | $1.16B | $943M | $771M | $810M | $733M | $667M | |
| SG&A Expense | $1.83B | $1.66B | $1.56B | $1.37B | $1.25B | $1.31B | $1.19B | $1.28B | $1.37B | $1.28B | $1.25B | $1.19B | $1.08B | $1.03B | $961M | $961M | |
| Operating Expenses | $3.78B | $3.60B | $3.43B | $2.96B | $2.75B | $2.60B | $2.28B | $2.97B | $2.52B | $2.37B | $2.41B | $2.13B | $1.85B | $1.88B | $1.69B | $1.77B | |
| Operating Income | $941M | $1.41B | $1.62B | $923M | $399M | $1.58B | $2.72B | $1.60B | $1.17B | $2.06B | $1.76B | $2.40B | $2.66B | $3.90B | $3.69B | $2.46B | |
| Interest Expense | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | $86M | $76M | · | $38M | $28M | $29M | · | $53M | $44M | |
| Interest Income | $434M | $449M | $439M | $392M | $400M | $442M | $429M | $348M | $350M | $333M | $282M | $238M | $213M | $157M | $86M | $26M | |
| Other Non-op | $-535M | $-592M | $-28M | $320M | $-119M | $595M | $-263M | $-80M | $443M | $-145M | $37M | $328M | $-48M | $-42M | $-85M | $28M | |
| Pretax Income | $748M | $1.18B | $1.96B | $1.55B | $589M | $2.52B | $2.79B | $1.79B | $1.89B | $2.19B | $2.04B | $2.94B | $2.80B | $3.98B | $3.64B | $2.47B | |
| Income Tax | $257M | $325M | $570M | $359M | $169M | $381M | $602M | $371M | $483M | $-5.75B | $167M | $323M | $261M | $276M | $305M | $205M | |
| Net Income | $477M | $840M | $1.37B | $1.17B | $409M | $2.13B | $2.17B | $1.40B | $1.39B | $7.93B | $1.85B | $2.70B | $2.51B | $3.69B | $3.29B | $2.26B | |
| EPS (Basic) | $0.15 | $0.26 | $0.43 | $0.36 | $0.13 | $0.66 | $0.68 | $0.44 | $0.45 | $2.50 | $0.58 | $0.85 | $0.80 | $1.17 | $1.05 | $0.73 | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.13 | $0.24 | $0.39 | $0.33 | $0.12 | $0.61 | $0.62 | $0.40 | $0.41 | $2.26 | $0.53 | $0.78 | $0.73 | $1.07 | $0.95 | $0.65 | |
| Shares (Basic) | 3,234,000,000 | -6,443,000,000 | 3,227,000,000 | 3,223,000,000 | 3,218,000,000 | -6,378,000,000 | 3,198,000,000 | 3,191,000,000 | 3,186,000,000 | -6,339,000,000 | 3,176,000,000 | 3,171,000,000 | 3,166,000,000 | -6,230,000,000 | 3,146,000,000 | 3,111,000,000 | |
| Shares (Diluted) | 3,538,000,000 | -7,038,000,000 | 3,526,000,000 | 3,519,000,000 | 3,521,000,000 | -6,964,000,000 | 3,497,000,000 | 3,481,000,000 | 3,484,000,000 | -6,954,000,000 | 3,493,000,000 | 3,478,000,000 | 3,468,000,000 | -6,929,000,000 | 3,468,000,000 | 3,464,000,000 | |
| EBITDA | $941M | · | $1.62B | $923M | $399M | · | $2.72B | $1.60B | $1.17B | · | $1.76B | $2.40B | $2.66B | · | $3.69B | $2.46B |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $16.60B | $16.51B | $18.29B | $15.59B | $16.35B | $16.14B | $18.11B | $14.63B | $11.80B | $16.40B | $15.93B | $15.30B | $16.05B | $16.25B | $19.53B | $18.32B | |
| Short-term Investments | $28.14B | $27.55B | $23.36B | $21.20B | $20.64B | $20.42B | $15.54B | $16.09B | $15.06B | · | $10.14B | $7.78B | $6.35B | · | $1.57B | $591M | |
| Receivables | $3.96B | $4.58B | $4.70B | $3.84B | $3.78B | $4.42B | $3.31B | $3.74B | $3.89B | · | $2.52B | $3.45B | $2.99B | · | $2.19B | $2.08B | |
| Inventory | $14.43B | $12.39B | $12.28B | $14.57B | $13.71B | $12.02B | $14.53B | $14.20B | $16.03B | · | $13.72B | $14.36B | $14.38B | · | $10.33B | $8.11B | |
| Prepaid Expense | $6.61B | $7.62B | $6.03B | $5.94B | $4.91B | $5.36B | $4.89B | $4.33B | $3.75B | · | $2.71B | $3.00B | $3.23B | · | $2.36B | $2.12B | |
| Current Assets | $69.75B | $68.64B | $64.65B | $61.13B | $59.39B | $58.36B | $56.38B | $52.98B | $50.53B | · | $45.03B | $43.88B | $43.00B | · | $35.99B | $31.22B | |
| PP&E (Net) | · | · | $39.41B | $38.57B | $37.09B | · | $36.12B | $32.90B | $31.44B | · | $27.74B | $26.39B | $24.97B | · | $21.93B | $21.09B | |
| PP&E (Gross) | · | · | $58.39B | $56.40B | $53.76B | · | $50.81B | $46.55B | $44.29B | · | $38.98B | $36.87B | $34.72B | · | $30.25B | $28.88B | |
| Accum. Depreciation | · | · | $18.98B | $17.83B | $16.67B | · | $14.69B | $13.65B | $12.85B | · | $11.24B | $10.48B | $9.75B | · | $8.32B | $7.79B | |
| Goodwill | · | $257M | $257M | $258M | $248M | $244M | $253M | $249M | $250M | · | $250M | $263M | $195M | · | $191M | $196M | |
| Intangibles | · | $124M | $131M | $138M | $144M | $150M | $158M | $164M | $171M | · | $191M | $202M | $204M | · | $228M | $241M | |
| Other Non-current Assets | $7.49B | $5.04B | $5.86B | $4.86B | $4.94B | $4.61B | $4.99B | $4.46B | $4.62B | · | $5.50B | $5.03B | $4.58B | · | $3.24B | $2.95B | |
| Total Assets | $143.72B | $137.81B | $133.74B | $128.57B | $125.11B | $122.07B | $119.85B | $112.83B | $109.23B | · | $93.94B | $90.59B | $86.83B | · | $74.43B | $68.51B | |
| Accounts Payable | $14.70B | $13.37B | $12.82B | $13.21B | $13.47B | $12.47B | $14.65B | $13.06B | $14.72B | · | $13.94B | $15.27B | $15.90B | · | $13.90B | $11.21B | |
| Current Liabilities | $34.14B | $31.71B | $31.29B | $30.01B | $29.75B | $28.82B | $30.58B | $27.73B | $29.45B | · | $26.64B | $27.59B | $27.44B | · | $24.61B | $21.82B | |
| Capital Leases | $5.67B | $5.39B | $5.17B | $5.02B | $4.76B | $4.60B | $4.29B | $4.02B | $3.85B | · | $3.18B | $2.93B | $2.39B | · | $1.90B | $1.82B | |
| Other Non-current Liabilities | $13.15B | $12.86B | $12.21B | $11.54B | $11.04B | $10.49B | $9.81B | $9.00B | $8.48B | · | $7.32B | $6.92B | $5.98B | · | $4.33B | $3.93B | |
| Total Liabilities | $58.92B | $54.94B | $53.02B | $50.49B | $49.69B | $48.39B | $49.14B | $45.57B | $44.05B | · | $39.45B | $38.41B | $37.60B | · | $33.30B | $30.86B | |
| Long-term Debt | $7.64B | $6.58B | $5.61B | $4.99B | $5.08B | $5.54B | $5.28B | $5.34B | $2.74B | · | $2.15B | $504M | $817M | · | $1.42B | $2.10B | |
| Common Stock | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M | · | $3M | $3M | $3M | · | $3M | $1M | |
| Retained Earnings | $39.48B | $39.00B | $38.16B | $36.79B | $35.62B | $35.21B | $32.66B | $30.49B | $29.01B | · | $19.95B | $18.10B | $15.40B | · | $9.20B | $5.91B | |
| AOCI | $334M | $361M | $207M | $158M | $-424M | $-670M | $-14M | $-467M | $-399M | · | $-692M | $-410M | $-225M | · | $-942M | $-477M | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $84.12B | $82.14B | $79.97B | $77.31B | $74.65B | $72.91B | $69.93B | $66.47B | $64.38B | · | $53.47B | $51.13B | $48.05B | · | $39.85B | $36.38B | |
| Liabilities + Equity | $143.72B | $137.81B | $133.74B | $128.57B | $125.11B | $122.07B | $119.85B | $112.83B | $109.23B | · | $93.94B | $90.59B | $86.83B | · | $74.43B | $68.51B | |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,755,000,000 | 3,751,000,000 | 3,324,000,000 | 3,224,000,000 | 3,220,000,000 | 3,216,000,000 | 3,207,000,000 | 3,194,000,000 | 3,189,000,000 | · | 3,179,000,000 | 3,174,000,000 | 3,169,000,000 | · | 3,158,000,000 | 1,041,000,000 |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock-based Comp | $1.03B | $954M | $663M | $635M | $573M | $579M | $457M | $439M | $524M | $484M | $465M | $445M | $418M | $419M | $362M | $361M | |
| Deferred Tax | $-136M | $-111M | $225M | $52M | $-43M | $6M | $338M | $196M | $63M | $-6.03B | $-113M | $-148M | $-55M | · | · | · | |
| Restructuring | · | · | $238M | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.94B | $3.81B | $6.24B | $2.54B | $2.16B | $4.81B | $6.25B | $3.61B | $242M | $4.37B | $3.31B | $3.06B | $2.51B | $3.28B | $5.10B | $2.35B | |
| CapEx | $2.49B | $2.39B | $2.25B | $2.39B | $1.49B | $2.78B | $3.52B | $2.28B | $2.78B | $2.31B | $2.46B | $2.06B | $2.07B | $1.86B | $1.80B | $1.73B | |
| Investing Cash Flow | $-5.02B | $-6.53B | $-4.36B | $-2.94B | $-1.65B | $-7.60B | $-2.88B | $-3.23B | $-5.08B | $-4.80B | $-4.76B | $-3.53B | $-2.48B | $-6.13B | $-2.79B | $-884M | |
| Financing Cash Flow | $1.17B | $710M | $983M | $-222M | $-332M | $985M | $132M | $2.54B | $196M | $887M | $2.26B | $-328M | $-233M | $-495M | $-712M | $-406M | |
| Net Change in Cash | $39M | $-1.97B | $2.85B | $-515M | $213M | $-1.94B | $3.62B | $2.89B | $-4.72B | $599M | $711M | $-891M | $-154M | $-3.23B | $1.26B | $847M | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.44B | · | · | · | $664M | · | · | · | $-2.53B | · | · | · | $441M | · | · | · | |
| Levered FCF | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | $-2.59B | · | · | · | $415M | · | · | · |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 21.1% | · | 18.0% | 17.2% | 16.3% | · | 19.8% | 17.9% | 17.3% | · | 17.9% | 18.2% | 19.3% | · | 25.1% | 25.0% | |
| Operating Margin | 4.2% | · | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | · | 10.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | · | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | · | 17.2% | 14.5% | |
| Net Margin | 2.1% | · | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | · | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | · | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | · | 15.3% | 13.3% | |
| Pretax Margin | 3.3% | · | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.0% | · | 11.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | · | 8.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% | · | 17.0% | 14.6% | |
| EBITDA Margin | 4.2% | · | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | · | 10.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | · | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | · | 17.2% | 14.5% | |
| ROA | 0.35% | · | 1.1% | 0.97% | 0.35% | · | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | · | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | · | 5.0% | 3.6% | |
| ROE | 0.60% | · | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.59% | · | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | · | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | · | 9.8% | 7.4% | |
| ROIC | 0.73% | · | 1.4% | 0.92% | 0.38% | · | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | · | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | · | 8.5% | 6.2% |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.0 | · | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | · | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | · | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | · | 1.5 | 1.4 | |
| Quick Ratio | 1.4 | · | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | · | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | · | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | · | 0.9 | 1.0 | |
| Interest Coverage | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 18.7 | 15.4 | · | 46.4 | 85.7 | 91.9 | · | 69.6 | 56.0 |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.2 | · | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | · | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | · | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | · | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Inventory Turnover | 1.3 | · | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | · | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | · | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | · | 2.1 | 2.0 | |
| Receivables Turnover | 5.8 | · | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | · | 8.6 | 7.1 | 6.2 | · | 9.9 | 9.0 | 8.8 | · | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| 指标 | 趋势 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue TTM | $92.31B | · | $95.11B | $92.51B | $91.32B | · | $95.33B | $95.08B | $92.91B | · | $93.06B | $86.64B | $80.47B | · | $70.90B | $61.41B | |
| Net Income TTM | $3.43B | · | $5.13B | $5.15B | $5.37B | · | $6.82B | $7.35B | $8.46B | · | $10.36B | $10.77B | $11.38B | · | $10.49B | $8.34B | |
| Market Cap | $1.40T | · | $1.48T | $1.02T | $834.50B | · | $839.05B | $632.03B | $560.59B | · | $795.45B | $830.86B | $657.44B | · | $837.66B | $233.68B | |
| P/E | 383.2 | · | 304.6 | 216.1 | 167.2 | · | 133.5 | 93.3 | 71.8 | · | 83.7 | 84.2 | 63.2 | · | 87.5 | 72.4 | |
| P/S | 15.1 | · | 15.5 | 11.1 | 9.1 | · | 8.8 | 6.6 | 6.0 | · | 8.5 | 9.6 | 8.2 | · | 11.8 | 3.8 | |
| P/B | 16.6 | · | 18.5 | 13.2 | 11.2 | · | 12.0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | · | 14.9 | 16.2 | 13.7 | · | 21.0 | 6.4 | |
| P / Tangible Book | 16.6 | · | 18.6 | 13.3 | 11.2 | · | 12.1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | · | 15.0 | 16.4 | 13.8 | · | 21.2 | 6.5 | |
| P / Cash Flow | 354.6 | · | · | · | 387.1 | · | · | · | 2316.5 | · | · | · | 261.6 | · | · | · | |
| P / FCF | 966.7 | · | · | · | 1256.8 | · | · | · | -221.5 | · | · | · | 1490.8 | · | · | · | |
| Earnings Yield | 0.26% | · | 0.33% | 0.46% | 0.60% | · | 0.75% | 1.1% | 1.4% | · | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | · | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2021-12-31 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 收入 | $94.83B | $97.69B | $96.77B | $81.46B | $53.82B |
| 毛利率 % | — | — | 18.2% | 25.6% | — |
| 营业利润率 % | — | — | 9.2% | 16.8% | — |
| 净收入 | $3.79B | $7.09B | $15.00B | $12.56B | $5.52B |
| 稀释后每股收益 (EPS) | $1.08 | $2.04 | $4.30 | $3.62 | $1.63 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2021-12-31 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 流动比率 | — | — | 1.7 | 1.5 | — |
| 速动比率 | — | — | 1.1 | 0.9 | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2021-12-31 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 自由现金流 | — | — | $4.36B | $7.57B | — |
我认为看涨论点取决于特斯拉能否成功推出机器人出租车，将其人工智能优势转化为高利润率的服务，从而超越其汽车销售。近期的股价走势支持了这一点，股价从4月25日的230美元飙升至上周的313美元，反映了投资者对自动驾驶的押注。市销率TTM为15.6倍，高于2025年第三季度的11.3倍，这表明市场正在消化车队带来的爆炸性收入增长。2.07的流动比率提供了充足的流动性，可以在不稀释股权的情况下为这一转型提供资金。
我的看跌论点基于特斯拉不断下滑的汽车盈利能力，无法支撑其在竞争加剧的情况下高得离谱的估值。市盈率TTM为284倍，远高于通用汽车的25.6倍，这意味着特斯拉必须指数级增长收益才能赶上——任何失误都会压低市盈率。净资产收益率TTM降至6.9%，甚至低于通用汽车的4.2%，表明其1.5万亿美元市值的资本效率低下。9.63的负债权益比暴露了资产负债表的风险，如果电动汽车需求进一步疲软。
特斯拉的估值在六周内从357美元跌至313美元，这已经消化了机器人出租车押注几乎完全失败的预期，但核心汽车业务仍然盈利，并且自动驾驶的期权是真实存在的。284倍的市盈率看起来很疯狂，直到你记住特斯拉是按增长倍数交易，而不是按收益倍数交易——市场定价的是一项变革性的人工智能业务，而不是一家汽车公司。如果机器人出租车部分成功，今天的价格就是捡便宜货。尽管面临价格战，毛利率仍保持在17%，显示出定价能力依然存在。真正的问题是市场是否在下跌方面过度修正了。
特斯拉的基本面正在悄然恶化，而股价却暗示一切如常。每股收益同比从1.73美元降至1.50美元，净利润率压缩了103个基点至5.51%——这并非一家正在甩开竞争的公司应有的表现。284倍的市盈率并非折扣；它承认市场没有盈利锚，纯粹是在押注机器人出租车是一个二元事件。与此同时，Uber刚刚承诺与Lucid合作投入100亿美元用于机器人出租车，而NAACP对马斯克xAI提起的诉讼预示着监管阻力。9.6倍的负债权益比对于一家利润率正在压缩的公司来说是危险的杠杆。如果机器人出租车延迟或失败，将没有估值底线。
特斯拉仍然是自动驾驶汽车领域唯一的纯粹领导者，如果他们成功扩展其机器人出租车网络，目前的估值将显得很划算。该公司目前的流动比率为2.06。这意味着特斯拉每1美元的短期债务就有超过2美元的流动资产，为资助其资本密集型人工智能雄心提供了巨大的缓冲。投资者押注这些流动性将弥合当期汽车利润率与市场目前在股价中定价的高利润率软件未来之间的差距。
当前估值与公司短期内产生利润的实际能力脱钩。特斯拉的市盈率高达283.9倍（基于过去十二个月收益）。这一倍数表明，投资者正在为尚未体现在底线的未来增长支付巨额溢价。此外，股本回报率已降至6.9%。这表明管理层在为股东提供的资本产生有效回报方面遇到困难，使得基于现有运营业绩的当前股价难以证明其合理性。
我认为TSLA在2026年第二季度的最强看涨理由是，其人工智能驱动的机器人出租车生态系统可以提供持久的经常性收入，远远超出硬件周期。52周价格区间大致在222美元至367美元之间。如果机器人出租车和软件网络实现盈利，这种波动性可能会带来有意义的重新评级。市值约为1.50万亿美元。规模支持激进的人工智能投资和生态系统合作伙伴关系，这些可能会解锁新的货币化渠道。市盈率TTM约为284倍。这反映了极高的增长预期；如果执行能力匹配，这种溢价可能是合理的。
我认为最强烈的看跌理由是，今天的价格已经消化了可能不会实现的超高增长，如果人工智能货币化停滞的话。市盈率TTM约为284倍。这种溢价容易受到盈利不及预期或货币化速度放缓的影响。净利润率为5.51%。这表明，如果成本上升，利润可能难以将收入增长转化为持久的现金流。负债权益比约为9.63倍。如果现金流减弱或大型资本支出需求加速，这种杠杆会加剧下行风险。
Claude，你声称毛利率保持在17%显示了定价能力，这忽略了其下方的盈利能力侵蚀。净利润率降至5.51%意味着价格战和成本压力正在侵蚀底线，尽管销量很高，但稳定的收入却转化为不断缩小的利润。这不支持一项变革性的增长故事——这是一家不惜一切代价捍卫市场份额的汽车公司，而机器人出租车仍然是一项投机性押注。
我需要反驳Grok的观点。你说6.9%的股本回报率低于通用汽车的4.2%，但这个数学计算是错误的——特斯拉的6.9%实际上高于通用汽车的4.2%。更重要的是，你在比较苹果和腐烂的水果。通用汽车的股本回报率之所以被压低，是因为传统汽车业务在结构上受到挑战；特斯拉的6.9%对于特斯拉来说很低，低于去年的8.2%，这才是真正的警示信号。恶化比同行比较更重要。这才是利润率压缩故事所在。
Claude，你关于特斯拉定价能力的观点被目前17.01%的毛利率所削弱。这一指标代表了在考虑了直接生产成本后剩余的收入百分比，在这个水平上，它表明公司仍然严重依赖激进的折扣来销售库存。你将其描述为定价能力的证明，但我认为这是在拥挤市场中的防御性必需品。当你将如此微薄的利润率与284倍的市盈率相结合时，股价实际上是为完美定价，而基础业务却在进行一场利润率战争。
Grok，你的看涨论点基于特斯拉机器人出租车的货币化，但市场已经将此计入股价。市销率15.6倍处于高位。这暗示投资者期望快速的软件/人工智能收入增长，但这可能不会在2026年出现。如果汽车利润率继续面临压力，而机器人出租车的时间表出现延迟，市盈率可能会迅速重新定价。这使得短期风险与执行和为人工智能押注提供资金相关，而不仅仅是汽车需求。
各位评委，大家都在争论的机器人出租车叙事忽略了Uber的积极反击。4月17日，Uber通过与Lucid扩大交易，承诺投入100亿美元用于机器人出租车，利用其庞大的网约车网络对抗特斯拉未经证实的FSD。这项资助的竞争对手侵蚀了特斯拉的护城河，而此时市盈率却高达284倍，这意味着执行必须完美无瑕，否则市盈率将崩溃。Claude，即使利润率稳定下来，像这样的竞争也会限制上涨空间。
我想反驳ChatGPT早些时候说的一点，没有人提出异议：市销率15.6倍是“高位”，并暗示快速的软件收入增长。但事实是——特斯拉的市销率实际上从2025年第三季度的11.3倍*上升*到今天的15.6倍，而同期每股收益从1.73美元降至1.50美元。这不是市场在为机器人出租车上涨定价；这是市场在将特斯拉重新定价为一家低利润率、低增长的企业。在收益萎缩的情况下市销率扩张才是真正的危险信号。这表明机构资金正在基于动量而非基本面轮动到特斯拉。这是一个拥挤的交易，随时可能反转。
我想挑战Claude早些时候关于机器人出租车“期权”在这个水平上是捡便宜货的观点。真正的威胁在于监管环境，特别是NAACP针对xAI在环境合规问题上提起的诉讼所带来的日益增长的压力。这不仅仅是麻烦；它威胁到训练支撑整个机器人出租车理论的FSD模型所需的数据中心基础设施。如果特斯拉面临其人工智能训练集群的本地或联邦许可延迟，Claude提到的“期权”就会蒸发。我们看到的是一家负债权益比为9.6倍的公司，这意味着他们每1美元的股权就有近10美元的债务，这使得他们在运营陷入僵局时没有任何回旋余地。
Grok，你的看涨论点基于一个可能过于乐观的高收入倍数。指标：市销率TTM 15.6倍。解释：这个高倍数意味着投资者正在消化特斯拉在短期内尚未证明的远超预期的收入增长。另一个风险是机器人出租车的任何延迟或成本超支，这将压缩市盈率并影响收益。如果汽车利润率继续面临压力或机器人出租车推出停滞，股价可能会重新定价以符合现金流现实。
| 模型 | 3个月目标 | 6个月目标 | 原因 |
|---|---|---|---|
| G Grok | 3个月目标 $255.00 | 6个月目标 $225.00 | 原因 我相信特斯拉泡沫化的估值将随着汽车利润率的进一步侵蚀和机器人出租车炒作遭遇竞争现实而破灭，在3个月内将股价推至250美元以下，在6个月内推至225美元以下。推动我6个月目标催化剂是7月下旬的2026年第二季度财报，很可能显示由于价格战，净利润率低于5.51%。打破这一点的关键风险是机器人出租车早期成功并获得监管批准，从而引发轧空。284倍的市盈率意味着任何盈利停滞都会迫使市盈率大幅收缩，这与通用汽车26倍的可持续市盈率不同。 |
| C Claude | 3个月目标 $268.00 | 6个月目标 $295.00 | 原因 特斯拉是一次伪装成增长故事的动量交易——市销率从11.3倍扩大到15.6倍，而每股收益下降了13%，这是机构资金轮动到拥挤叙事，而不是基本面改善。我的3个月目标反映了随着机器人出租车时间表的推迟和利润率压缩变得不可否认，近期的回撤；6个月目标假设如果第二季度财报超出预期，将出现部分稳定。真正的催化剂是特斯拉的下一次财报电话会议——如果净利润率低于5.5%，并且管理层将机器人出租车收入预期推迟到2027年或更晚，那么284倍的市盈率将跌至120-150倍。致命风险是Uber的100亿美元Lucid合作伙伴关系在特斯拉交付有意义的FSD收入之前被证明是可行的，从而完全侵蚀了护城河。以284倍的市盈率和6.9%的股本回报率，特斯拉正在为尚未存在的软件业务定价，而其背后是不断恶化的汽车基本面和9.6倍的杠杆——如果执行出现任何一个季度的失误，这种数学计算就会破裂。 |
| G Gemini | 3个月目标 $240.00 | 6个月目标 $215.00 | 原因 我的论点是，特斯拉目前的估值是一个投机性泡沫，随着市场将焦点从人工智能炒作转移回汽车需求降温的现实，该泡沫将破灭。下跌的催化剂是2026年第二季度的财报发布，我预计持续的利润率压缩将迫使对该股票天文数字估值进行现实检验。主要风险是FSD监管批准取得突破，这可能引发轧空。以283.9倍的市盈率，投资者正在为公司目前无法实现的数十年增长付费，随着市场意识到收益实际上在萎缩，市盈率必须收缩。 |
| C Chatgpt | 3个月目标 $300.00 | 6个月目标 $320.00 | 原因 我认为TSLA在未来几个月可能会在当前水平附近的大幅区间内波动，等待机器人出租车货币化的清晰信号。催化剂：一份具体的盈利报告，定义机器人出租车收入和成本结构的单位经济效益。风险：监管阻力和日益激烈的竞争可能会在利润率恶化的情况下扼杀上涨空间。市盈率TTM约284倍意味着市场正在为特斯拉定价多年的收益增长；如果实际利润令人失望，市盈率的压缩可能会限制上涨空间。 |
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