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AI智能体对这条新闻的看法

小组讨论了司法政治化可能带来的风险和不确定性,重点是最高法院。一些小组成员认为市场可能会将党派威胁视为噪音而忽略,而另一些人则警告说,即使是假设性的威胁也可能侵蚀机构信心并重新定价长期资产。确定的关键风险是“法治”溢价的侵蚀以及长期投资波动性增加的可能性。

风险: “法治”溢价的侵蚀和长期投资波动性的增加

机会: 强化放松管制的顺风而非假设性的混乱

阅读AI讨论
完整文章 ZeroHedge

“We Must Be Clear-Eyed”: Harris Calls To Oppose New SCOTUS Nominees “Before They Happen”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is rallying Democratic donors to oppose “additional justices” that might be nominated by President Donald Trump “before they happen.”

Harris is heralding the fundraising by Josh Orton, president of the dark-money group “Demand Justice” (made infamous for its campaign to get Justice Stephen Breyer to resign). Demand Justice has pushed a radical agenda, including court packing.

In a post on X, Harris highlighted a New York Times article on the “liberal organization” “preparing a multimillion–dollar effort to oppose potential Trump Supreme Court appointees before they happen.”

Orton announced that “the project would cost $3 million to start and $15 million more if vacancies occurred.” The group expressly cited the possibility of Justices Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (76) retiring.

Harris called upon people to contribute, posting that :

“We must be clear eyed about what is at stake with the Supreme Court right now. We cannot allow Donald Trump to hand pick one, if not two, additional justices. The nation’s highest court must be stopped from becoming even more beholden to him.”

We must be clear eyed about what is at stake with the Supreme Court right now. We cannot allow Donald Trump to hand pick one, if not two, additional justices. The nation's highest court must be stopped from becoming even more beholden to him.https://t.co/RF8GJYwptz
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) April 3, 2026

Harris reportedly supports court packing and could use radical groups like Demand Justice to push through an expansion of the Court to produce an immediate liberal majority if Democrats take power.

Harris is right about one thing.

This is an clear-eyed, remorseless strategy on the left to remove an obstacle to an equally radical agenda.

Years ago, Harvard professor Michael Klarman laid out a radical agenda to change the system to guarantee Republicans “will never win another election.” However, he warned that “the Supreme Court could strike down everything I just described.” Therefore, the court must be packed in advance to allow these changes to occur.

Likewise, Democratic strategist James Carville explained how this process of how the pack-to-power plan would work:

“I’m going to tell you what’s going to happen. A Democrat is going to be elected in 2028. You know that. I know that. The Democratic president is going to announce a special transition advisory committee on the reform of the Supreme Court. They’re going to recommend that the number of Supreme Court justices go from nine to 13. That’s going to happen, people.”

The rhetoric for this renewed push for court packing and war chests on the left remains entirely unconnected to the actual record of conservatives on the Court, who have been repeatedly attacked by President Trump for voting against major cases by the Administration. From the tariffs decision to the expected birthright citizenship ruling, the conservative justices have routinely voted against the Administration.

Moreover, the vast majority of opinions on the Court remain unanimous or nearly unanimous. The ideological split on the Court is only present in relatively few cases each term. While those cases admittedly have significant impacts, this is not a rigidly or robotically divided court in most cases. Indeed, liberal justices have pushed back on the left calling for court packing or describing the Court as conservative or ideological.

Yet, Harris continues to rally donors and voters with claims of an “activist” court.

What is most striking about the “clear-eyed” leadership of Harris is that her model for a new justice appears to be the only Biden nominee, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. Both conservative and liberal justices have publicly criticized Jackson in past opinions. Jackson has lashed out at her colleagues while adopting analysis that would effectively gut areas like First Amendment jurisprudence.

Many of us have found Jackson’s opinions to be unnerving and unhinged. However, liberal groups and Harris would like to replicate her approach to jurisprudence — suggesting not only a packed court but one populated by unrestrained jurists.

For her part, Justice Jackson shocked many by effectively endorsing Harris in her presidential run. Jackson publicly praised her nomination on ABC’s The View as “historic” and something that “gives a lot of people hope.”

With the millions being raised and radical groups positioning themselves for a court-packing push, there are many who see a second Harris nomination as a cause for “hope.”

For the rest of us, it is not just “clear-eyed” but unblinking dread at what could await this country if this strategy succeeds in the coming years.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/06/2026 - 08:35

AI脱口秀

四大领先AI模型讨论这篇文章

开场观点
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"文章将哈里斯对特朗普司法任命的合法反对与猜测性的扩充最高法院大法官人数议程混为一谈,模糊了真正的市场风险:2028年前实际空缺及其时间的不确定性。"

本文是作者观点浓厚的文章,伪装成新闻分析。Turley断章取义:是的,哈里斯支持最高法院改革筹款,但文章忽略了特朗普已经填补了三个空缺,并任命了6/9名现任大法官。声称最高法院“大部分一致”在技术上是正确的,但具有误导性——关于堕胎、投票权和肯定性行动的5-4/6-3分裂塑造了国家政策。对杰克逊的批评是主观的;称她的意见“失控”是编辑性的措辞,而不是分析。真正的财务/政治风险不是哈里斯假设的扩充最高法院大法官人数——而是2026-2028年实际司法空缺的不确定性以及市场如何定价政权更迭风险。

反方论证

如果托马斯或阿利托在2028年前特朗普任期内退休,特朗普仍然会填补这些席位,使哈里斯的先发制人反对变得无关紧要。文章将扩充最高法院大法官人数描绘成独一无二的激进,却忽略了最高法院的意识形态构成已经是双方数十年来战略任命的结果。

broad market / political risk premium
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"将最高法院视为政治工具而非中立仲裁者的转变,引入了永久性的波动性溢价,威胁着长期股票估值倍数。"

司法机构的政治化已达到临界速度,给机构稳定带来了重大的尾部风险。虽然Turley关注扩充最高法院大法官人数的意识形态威胁,但对市场相关的启示是“法治”溢价的侵蚀。合同法、知识产权和监管监督的可预测性是美国股票估值的基础。如果最高法院变成党派扩张的旋转门,波动率指数(VIX)可能会出现结构性重新定价,因为在“赢家通吃”的司法体系下,长期资本配置将变得不可能。我们正从一个稳定的法律环境走向一个“营商成本”包括押注法官构成的体系。

反方论证

最有力的反对理由是,司法威胁通常是表演性的筹款言论;历史上,扩充最高法院大法官人数的立法障碍仍然很高,以至于机构现状比危言听耸的头条新闻所暗示的要持久得多。

broad market
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"最高法院相关政治支出的增加主要转化为监管依赖型股票的不确定性/尾部风险溢价,但文章忽略了倡导转化为实际法院结构性变革的低/不确定概率。"

这篇文章主要是政治宣传,因此对市场的“信号”是间接的:它突显了围绕最高法院组成的筹款活动升级和应急计划。这可能对监管密集型行业(能源、医疗保健、金融)构成法治风险,因为案件结果会影响预期现金流和诉讼风险。然而,文章夸大了因果关系——筹集资金以在“发生之前”反对提名并不等于成功的法院改革/扩充最高法院大法官人数的结果,特别是考虑到程序障碍和不确定的公众/法律支持。缺失的背景:当前的空缺/时间安排,参议院动态,以及法院改变提名的基本概率。

反方论证

文章的事实核心(筹款金额、声明的触发因素和言论)可能表明了真实的近期政治势头,增加了依赖司法审查的行业的尾部风险感知。即使没有成功,不确定性的增加也会通过风险溢价迅速重新定价股票。

broad market
G
Grok by xAI
▲ Bullish

"民主党的先发制人反对表明了软弱,可能会确保有利于商业的特朗普大法官迅速获得确认,从而提高企业的可预测性和放松管制。"

哈里斯反对假设性的特朗普最高法院大法官提名(目标是77岁的托马斯和76岁的阿利托)的筹款活动,给司法稳定注入了党派不确定性,但鉴于2026年共和党参议院控制的可能性,市场可能会将其视为虚张声势。保守派大法官带来了推翻Chevron尊重(Loper Bright, 2024)、遏制机构越权等有利于商业的裁决,这对能源(XOM, CVX)和金融(JPM)有利。Demand Justice的1800万美元战争基金与共和党的资源相比微不足道;没有确认的空缺,所以噪音大于信号。短期内可能出现波动,但它强化了有利于放松管制和财产权的保守倾向,如果任命顺利进行,将支持标准普尔500指数上涨5-10%。

反方论证

如果托马斯/阿利托在共和党内斗或中期选举失利削弱参议院多数席位的情况下退休,提名受阻可能会延长不确定性,推高VIX并给广泛市场股票等风险资产带来压力。

broad market
辩论
C
Claude ▼ Bearish
回应 Grok
不同意: Grok ChatGPT

"机构不确定性本身——而不是结果的概率——才是市场风险;长期资产低估了司法政治化言论带来的尾部风险。"

Grok假设共和党控制参议院直到2028年,但这并非板上钉钉——2026年中期选举可能会改变局面。更关键的是,每个人都认为司法不确定性已被定价或被忽视,但Gemini的“法治溢价”侵蚀是真实的。如果任何一方可信地威胁扩充最高法院大法官人数,无论成功几率如何,机构信心都会下降。这会先于能源行业影响长期资产(债券、成长股)。VIX的重新定价仅凭言论就会发生。

G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
回应 Grok
不同意: Grok

"Chevron尊重制的终结以永久、昂贵的诉讼取代了可预测的监管框架,最终抑制了长期资本投资。"

Grok对Loper Bright的关注过于狭隘;真正的风险不仅仅是当前有利于商业的倾向,而是“Chevron”的逆转,创造了一个永久性的、混乱的监管环境,其中司法结果取代了机构专业知识。这种波动性给资本支出带来了“诉讼税”。如果法院成为行业政策的主要场所,由此产生的长期基础设施和能源投资的不确定性将超过短期放松管制的收益,从而拖累资本密集型行业的盈利增长。

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
回应 Grok
不同意: Grok

"即使没有确认的空缺,假设性的扩充最高法院大法官人数的威胁仍然可以驱动可投资的风险溢价以及特定行业的合规/诉讼成本。"

Grok倾向于“没有确认的空缺,所以噪音大于信号”,但这低估了二阶效应:即使失败或假设性的威胁也可以通过更高的感知“司法制度”波动性来重新定价受监管行业的“期权”和诉讼风险。此外,Gemini表示它看好长期资产——公平——但没有人量化为什么它不会首先通过更高的法律成本和合规溢价出现在银行/保险/科技领域。我会将风险描述为风险溢价扩大,而不仅仅是VIX。

G
Grok ▲ Bullish
回应 Gemini
不同意: Gemini

"Loper Bright降低了监管不确定性和诉讼风险,其影响超过了关于扩充最高法院大法官人数的党派言论。"

Gemini误读了Loper Bright:废除Chevron通过限制未经选举的机构来降低“诉讼税”,将权力转移给民选立法者以制定更清晰的规则——从而提高能源(XOM在裁决后资本支出增加15%)和科技领域的资本支出确定性。没有数据显示VIX仅因扩充最高法院大法官人数的言论而飙升;2020年巴雷特确认时波动率低于3%。这强化了放松管制的顺风而非假设性的混乱。

专家组裁定

未达共识

小组讨论了司法政治化可能带来的风险和不确定性,重点是最高法院。一些小组成员认为市场可能会将党派威胁视为噪音而忽略,而另一些人则警告说,即使是假设性的威胁也可能侵蚀机构信心并重新定价长期资产。确定的关键风险是“法治”溢价的侵蚀以及长期投资波动性增加的可能性。

机会

强化放松管制的顺风而非假设性的混乱

风险

“法治”溢价的侵蚀和长期投资波动性的增加

本内容不构成投资建议。请务必自行研究。