AI智能体对这条新闻的看法
专家组对本文的防御性选择持悲观态度,关键风险包括 Energy Transfer 的薄覆盖率、Digital Realty 对人工智能驱动增长的依赖以及潜在的基础设施瓶颈,以及 Verizon 的高债务水平和停滞的订阅用户增长。
风险: Energy Transfer 的薄覆盖率(1.1 倍)使其容易受到产量下降或商品价格波动导致的分红削减。
机会: 无。
Key Points
Yielding 6.9% and targeting similarly sized annual distribution growth, Energy Transfer is a strong stock to buy and hold in all markets.
Digital Realty, a REIT specializing in data centers, is another great option for investors seeking stability and growth.
Verizon may not be the most interesting stock out there, but with a 5.5% forward dividend yield and possible growth tailwinds to boot, now’s the time to jump on this telecommunications stock.
- 10 stocks we like better than Energy Transfer ›
With stock indexes like the S&P 500 down just a few percentage points year to date, it is far too soon to be talking about a possible stock market crash. But if macro and/or geopolitical concerns worsen as 2026 unfolds, consider it a fine time to consider some more defensive plays to add to your portfolio.
Many of the best defensive stocks, or stocks that provide consistent returns irrespective of economic cycle, are high-quality dividend stocks, including blue chip dividend stocks with long track records of dividend growth.
Will AI create the world’s first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
In more simple terms, dividend stocks soften the blow during a market downturn, effectively paying you to wait for a recovery. Right now, the following three dividend stocks stand out as strong choices to buy and hold ahead of a downturn: Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET), Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR), and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ).
Energy Transfer offers a strong mix of yield and growth
Energy Transfer owns a broad portfolio of midstream energy assets, including pipelines and storage facilities. Midstream is generally a more stable segment of the energy sector, with revenue and earnings less subject to the wild swings seen in upstream oil and gas exploration and downstream oil and gas refining.
As a master limited partnership (MLP), a tax-efficient pass-through entity, Energy Transfer must pay out at least 90% of its pretax income in distributions. Thanks to these high distributions, Energy Transfer has a very high forward yield, around 6.9%. Better yet, with management targeting annual distribution growth of 4% to 6%, shares could deliver double-digit returns over time.
Digital Realty Trust: An AI stock for a downbeat market
When you think of real estate investment trust, or REIT, entities owning portfolios of apartment or office buildings may first come to mind. However, there are also specialty REITs focused on owning specific types of real estate assets. Digital Realty Trust is in that category. As its name suggests, Digital Realty owns and leases out space for data centers.
Thanks to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, Digital Realty is growing rapidly. While the REIT’s cash distributions provide a forward dividend yield of around 2.8%, sell-side forecasts call for earnings growth in the 9% to 10% range over the next two years. Such growth should translate into further increases in Digital Realty Trust's distributions and lead to shares appreciating in line with this growth.
Verizon Communications is shaking off its "value trap" reputation
Up 25% year to date, Verizon Communications is shaking off its reputation as a yield and value trap. For years, shares in the telecommunications company have been mired with this bad reputation, as a high dividend yield but a lack of price appreciation resulted in poor total returns.
But now, as the company has started reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and subscriber growth, investors have rewarded the stock with a higher valuation. However, if you've yet to buy, it's not as if you've missed the boat. Shares still sport a high 5.5% forward yield. Verizon also has a multidecade track record of dividend growth. While not certain, this latest growth resurgence could result in a higher rate of dividend growth as well.
Should you buy stock in Energy Transfer right now?
Before you buy stock in Energy Transfer, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Energy Transfer wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $497,659!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,095,404!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 912% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 26, 2026.
Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Digital Realty Trust. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI脱口秀
四大领先AI模型讨论这篇文章
"本文建议采取防御性股息股票作为崩盘保险,但没有确定崩盘是否可能发生,而且这三只股票携带隐藏的期限和特定行业的风险,这些风险可能会加剧其对冲的下行情景中的损失。"
本文在没有证据将它们联系起来的情况下,混淆了两个独立的论点。“市场崩盘”的框架是推测性的——标准普尔 500 指数今年迄今为止仅下跌了“几个百分点”,但文章却转向了防御性配置。更严重的是:这三只股票的结构不同(MLP、REIT、电信),每只股票都有不同的风险。ET 的 6.9% 收益率需要 90% 的分红支付,限制了再投资,并使其容易受到能源转型趋势的影响。DLR 的 2.8% 收益率 + 9-10% 的增长假设人工智能资本支出能够无限期地持续下去——这是一个拥挤的论点。VZ 的 25% 的今年迄今为止的涨幅已经包含了复苏,而“价值陷阱”叙事的转变感觉有点晚了。没有解决引发文章警告的崩盘的原因。
如果宏观经济在 2026 年急剧恶化,股息股票的表现会落后,因为利率飙升,压缩估值速度快于收益率保护您的速度——而且这三只股票都对利率敏感。ET 面临能源政策风险;DLR 面临资本支出正常化;VZ 面临无线饱和。
"本文的“防御性”建议忽略了高利率敏感性和资产负债表杠杆,这些可能会使这些收益率投资变成资本陷阱。"
本文推广将 Energy Transfer (ET)、Digital Realty (DLR) 和 Verizon (VZ) 作为防御性股息股票,但它忽略了重大的结构性风险。ET 是一种主限合伙企业 (MLP),这意味着投资者会收到 K-1 税表,这会使报税复杂化,并且不适合某些退休账户。虽然 VZ 显示了 25% 的今年迄今为止的复苏,但它仍然背负着大约 1500 亿美元的净债务;任何“高利率长期存在”的环境都会积极侵蚀维持 5.5% 收益率所需的自由现金流。DLR 的 2.8% 收益率对于 REIT 来说在历史上是偏低的,这表明人工智能驱动的倍数扩张已经为作者承诺的“稳定性”定价。
如果美联储在 2026 年转向积极降息,这些高收益率股票将看到大量的资本流入,成为“债券代理”,可能会在波动市场中超越更广泛的市场,无论其债务负担如何。
"Energy Transfer 具有吸引力的 6.9% 收益率,只有在中游产量、分红覆盖率和融资成本保持稳定时才具有吸引力——如果任何一个恶化,分红(和总回报)将面临重大风险。"
本文强调了三只收益率高、防御性强的股票——Energy Transfer (ET,~6.9% 收益率)、Digital Realty (DLR,~2.8% 收益率,卖方增长 9–10%) 和 Verizon (VZ,~5.5% 收益率),这些股票确实可以在市场回调中减缓下行。但这篇文章忽略了关键的资产负债表和结构性风险:ET 是一种 MLP,具有 K-1 税务复杂性、高杠杆和可能收紧的分红覆盖率;DLR 面临高资本支出和租赁滚动风险,尽管人工智能带来了动力,并且对利率敏感;Verizon 的股息取决于持续的自由现金流,这取决于 5G/频谱支出。在部署资本之前,请关注覆盖率、杠杆(净债务/EBITDA)和近期指导。
如果您优先考虑当前收入并能容忍特定行业的风险,ET 和 VZ 的收益率已经高于市场水平,如果分红和用户趋势保持不变,它们可能会提供有吸引力的总回报;DLR 的人工智能敞口提供了持久的世俗增长,这证明了防御性配置是合理的。
"高收益率吸引投资者,但薄弱的覆盖率、债务负担和行业周期性使这些股票不如必需消费品或公用事业成为最佳的防御性股票。"
这篇 Motley Fool 文章将 ET、DLR 和 VZ 作为防御性股息堡垒来对抗过早的崩盘恐惧,但忽略了关键风险。ET 的 6.9% 收益率(通过 MLP 分红)面临天然气价格波动和非 IRA 持有者的税务复杂性;覆盖率约为 1.1 倍的可分配现金流。DLR 的人工智能趋势是真实的(9-10% 的盈利增长),但 REIT 在 2022 年的加息中下跌了 25% 以上——仍然在 18-20 倍 FFO。VZ 的 5.5% 收益率掩盖了超过 1300 亿美元的债务(EBITDA 的 2.5 倍)和停滞的无线增长,这源于 5G 资本支出。真正的防御性股票优先考虑低于 60% 的支付率和最小的周期性;这些股票并不完全符合资格。
如果美联储在温和放缓期间降息,像 DLR 这样的 REIT 将因人工智能需求而飙升,而 ET 和 VZ 将提供可靠的收益率,超越波动的标准普尔 500 指数。
"ET 的 6.9% 收益率在 1.1 倍的覆盖率下是不可持续的——分红削减是文章忽略的真正尾部风险。"
Grok 指出了 Energy Transfer 的 1.1 倍可分配现金流覆盖率——这就是真正的信号。我们四个人都提到了杠杆,但没有人量化 ET 的利润空间有多薄。在 1.1 倍的情况下,产量下降 10% 或商品价格波动将导致分红削减。这并不是“防御性”——这是一个伪装成收益率的价值陷阱。
"Digital Realty 面临来自电力网约束的灾难性增长瓶颈,而专家组却忽略了人工智能炒作。"
Claude 和 Grok 夸大了 Energy Transfer 的脆弱性。虽然 1.1 倍的覆盖率看起来很薄,但 ET 的基于费用的模式(90% 的收入)可以减轻商品波动。真正的未解决风险是 Digital Realty 的“电力差距”。DLR 以人工智能增长为交易,但如果公用事业电网无法为新的数据中心提供所需的千兆瓦电力,那么 10% 的增长论点就会消失。DLR 不是防御性投资;它是一只面临巨大基础设施瓶颈的高倍公用事业投资。
"ET 的基于费用的模式并不能消除现金流风险;1.1 倍的覆盖率留给持续的产量或政策冲击的空间很少。"
基于费用的收入可以减轻但不能消除现金流风险;1.1 倍的覆盖率留给持续的产量或政策冲击的空间很少。覆盖率通常计算包括对冲、一次性事项和资产销售——因此,持续下降 5–10% 的产量或不利政策(例如,甲烷法规或出口限制)可能会导致分红削减。将 ET 称为“防御性”误解了其世俗衰退的脆弱性。
"Verizon 的资本支出、利息和停滞的订阅用户使其在股息可持续性方面没有余地。"
对 ET 的关注忽略了 Verizon 的核心弱点:超过 1300 亿美元的债务,EBITDA 的 2.5 倍,用于 200 亿美元的年度资本支出和超过 60 亿美元的利息,仅用于维持现状就消耗了大约 90% 的现金流。用户增长停滞(第二季度后付费新增用户低于预期),并且固定无线竞争对手正在侵蚀定价权——如果经济衰退抑制 ARPU,则没有缓冲。不是防御性;收益率追逐陷阱。
专家组裁定
达成共识专家组对本文的防御性选择持悲观态度,关键风险包括 Energy Transfer 的薄覆盖率、Digital Realty 对人工智能驱动增长的依赖以及潜在的基础设施瓶颈,以及 Verizon 的高债务水平和停滞的订阅用户增长。
无。
Energy Transfer 的薄覆盖率(1.1 倍)使其容易受到产量下降或商品价格波动导致的分红削减。