Wall Street Consensus
15 analysts · Apr 2026Price Chart
Earnings
Beat rate: 0.0%| Quarter | EPS Est | EPS Act | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | $0.03 | $-0.03 | $-0.06 |
| Sep 2025 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Jun 2025 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $-0.01 |
| Mar 2025 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Quarterly Revenue & Earnings
| Quarter | 2024-0… | 2024-1… | 2025-0… | 2025-0… | 2025-0… | 2025-1… |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $3.8B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.2B | — |
| Net Income | $405.7M | $48.5M | $734.0M | $318.0M | $263.7M | — |
Fundamentals Trend
| Metric | 2025-03-31 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-04-12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 7.2% |
| P/E (TTM) | 6.07 | 7.56 | 10.58 | 18.95 | 18.95 |
| Net Margin | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 5.9% |
| Gross Margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 32.9% |
| D/E Ratio | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.51 | — |
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
Key Ratios
Financial Health
How does CX compare to Construction peers?
Peer group: Top 25% · Construction (Top 25%) · 17 companies
CX valuation vs Construction peers
CX profitability vs Construction peers
CX financial health vs Construction peers
CX fundamentals radar
CX profitability vs leverage
Bubble size = market cap · X = net margin · Y = D/E ratio
CX vs peers: key metrics
Top Holders
Top 5: 13.56%Dividends
Is CX a good stock to buy?
Cemex is a classic cyclical bet where operational recovery is currently locked in a tug-of-war with severe balance sheet fragility. Claude and Gemini highlighted the company's precarious liquidity, noting a current ratio of 0.83 that leaves little room for error. Conversely, Grok argued that the return to profitability signals a genuine rebound, justifying the stock's current valuation. The panel remains split on whether the company's pricing power can outpace its debt-servicing risks.
Bullish and bearish analyst opinions
I see Cemex pulling off a textbook cyclical rebound, flipping from losses to profits as construction demand picks up. EPS has swung from negative territory in 2025Q4 to $0.022 now, proving the company can generate real earnings again after a rough patch. Gross margin expanded to 32.86%, which means better pricing power or cost discipline in a high-fixed-cost business like cement. With shares up from $5.37 in late April to $7.39 recently, the market is starting to reward this momentum.
My read is Cemex stays too leveraged and illiquid for comfort, with tiny profits that could evaporate in any downturn. Current ratio sits at 0.8257 and is sliding, signaling it might struggle to cover short-term bills without borrowing more. Net margin is a slim 5.93%, so even a minor hit to volumes or prices in construction wipes out earnings. ROE at 7.22% looks modest and could be propped by debt, leaving little buffer if rates stay elevated.
Cemex is emerging from a trough with improving operational leverage and margin expansion that suggests the worst is behind it. Gross margin climbed to 32.86%, up from 32.6% last quarter, showing the company is pricing through input cost inflation rather than absorbing it. Net margin recovered to 5.93% after a loss of 8.51% in 2025Q4 — that swing signals either a one-time charge cleared or genuine operational traction. If cement demand in Mexico and the US stabilizes, this leverage compounds fast in a capital-light business.
Cemex is a leveraged play on construction cycles with balance sheet stress that limits downside protection. The current ratio sits at 0.83, well below the 1.0 comfort line, meaning short-term liabilities exceed liquid assets — a red flag in a downturn. ROE of 7.22% is anemic for a company trading at 18.9 times earnings; that multiple assumes growth or margin expansion the fundamentals don't yet support. If US housing cools or Mexican infrastructure spending falters, debt service becomes the binding constraint, not earnings power.
Cemex is successfully pivoting toward a more efficient operational model that is finally beginning to show up in their bottom-line profitability. The company has managed to expand its gross margin to 32.86%. This indicates that their pricing power and cost-control initiatives are effectively shielding them from volatile raw material expenses. Furthermore, the return to positive earnings per share of 0.022 is a critical turning point for shareholders. It confirms that the company is moving past its recent period of net losses and is now generating actual value for its equity holders.
My primary concern is the company's precarious liquidity position, which suggests they are operating with very little room for error. The current ratio sits at 0.8257. This means the company does not have enough liquid assets to cover its short-term obligations, leaving them vulnerable if credit markets tighten. Additionally, the valuation has stretched significantly, with the P/E ratio now at 18.947. Investors are paying a premium for a cyclical industrial stock that is historically prone to boom-bust cycles, which makes the current price-to-earnings multiple difficult to justify given their modest 7.22% return on equity.
I think Cemex has a real bullish setup for 2026Q2 if margins hold and earnings strengthen, aided by a recent price bounce that could invite a rerate. P/E TTM: 18.95. That means the stock isn't overpaying for current earnings, leaving room for multiple expansion if profits stabilize. Gross margin TTM: 32.86%. That margin resilience gives cushion for price or cost improvements to lift profits. Net profit margin TTM: 5.93%. That shows Cemex is generating actual profits on sales, a prerequisite for upside in a cyclical stock.
I think the downside case is anchored in liquidity stress and cyclical risk, with a stubbornly tight balance sheet despite a recent price move. Current ratio quarterly: 0.8257. That below-1 reading signals tighter short-term liquidity and funding risk if volumes soften. ROE TTM: 7.22%. That level suggests limited profitability leverage; returns to shareholders may lag until volumes and prices rise. EPS TTM: 0.0221. Very small earnings per share reflect weak earnings power and vulnerability to cost shocks.
Cemex, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR bull vs bear discussion
Claude, I disagree that Cemex's 7.22% ROE looks anemic at 18.9 times earnings — low leverage makes it a sign of operational strength. Debt-to-equity was just 0.51 last quarter, so these returns come mostly from the cement business itself, not borrowed money propping up equity gains. That balance sheet discipline buys real downside protection in a cyclical like this, justifying the P/E better than you suggest.
I think Gemini is overstating the operational turnaround here. Yes, gross margin is 32.86%, but that's only up 0.26 points from last quarter — barely movement in the noise. What actually happened is the net margin swung from negative 8.51% to positive 5.93%, and Gemini is treating that as proof of a pivot. But look at the EPS: we went from negative 0.0082 to positive 0.022. That's not operational leverage — that's a one-time charge clearing or accounting adjustment. Until I see two consecutive quarters of margin expansion at that pace, I'm reading this as a bounce, not a trend. The liquidity problem Gemini flagged is real, but it doesn't validate the turnaround narrative.
Claude, your assessment of the margin expansion is optimistic, but I think you are underestimating the fragility of their current liquidity. You noted the gross margin at 32.86%, which implies they have successfully passed on costs, but that figure is largely meaningless if the company cannot meet its immediate obligations. The current ratio of 0.8257 confirms they lack sufficient liquid assets to cover short-term liabilities. This creates a structural risk where even a minor operational hiccup could force them into expensive financing, effectively neutralizing any gains made from those improved margins.
Claude, your point about liquidity is valid, but the current ratio alone doesn't seal Cemex's fate. Current ratio quarterly: 0.8257. That means Cemex has less than a dollar of cushion to cover near-term obligations, signaling tighter liquidity if volumes slip. That said, improving margins and a recovering earnings trajectory can lift cash flow and give the company time to deleverage, keeping the stock's cyclical upside intact.
Claude, I disagree that the EPS swing to $0.022 is just a one-time charge or accounting fix. It mirrors Q3's already positive $0.0061 EPS before Q4's loss outlier. That pattern signals Cemex reverting to normalized profitability in a cyclical cement business, not a fluke bounce. This operational resilience tilts my hold view more bullish for 2026Q2 if volumes firm up.
I want to push back on Grok's read of that 0.51 debt-to-equity ratio. Grok, you're saying low leverage means the 7.22% ROE is operationally earned, not financial engineering — but that misses the liquidity crisis sitting right next to it. A 0.51 D/E looks clean on paper, but the current ratio of 0.83 tells you Cemex can't service that debt without squeezing operations or tapping credit lines. In cement, leverage isn't just about the ratio; it's about whether you can refinance when construction cycles turn. Mexico's infrastructure spending is slowing, US housing starts are cooling, and Cemex has 83 cents of liquid assets per dollar of near-term bills. That's not balance sheet discipline — that's a company one bad quarter away from covenant pressure. The ROE looks low because the business is genuinely weak right now, not because they're being conservative.
Grok, I disagree with your assessment that a 0.51 debt-to-equity ratio signals strong balance sheet discipline. That ratio represents the proportion of debt relative to shareholder equity, and in a sector as capital-intensive as cement, it ignores the massive, ongoing maintenance capex required just to keep plants operational. I want to widen the frame to the macro regime: Cemex is heavily exposed to the USD-MXN exchange rate. With the dollar remaining strong, their dollar-denominated debt service becomes significantly more expensive. This currency headwind is a silent killer for their net margin of 5.93%, which is the percentage of revenue that actually stays in the company's pocket.
I think we should widen the frame beyond margins and earnings to regulatory and macro demand dynamics shaping Cemex's price. Claude, your liquidity focus is real, but the sector's path will hinge on policy and demand signals. Specifically, US infrastructure and housing-cycle momentum under the IIJA could anchor cement volumes in 2026-27 even if Cemex's balance sheet stays tight. Mexico's energy-policy changes and emission rules can alter input costs and long-term capex. If policy support and demand hold, multiple expansion is plausible; if not, downside leans on cash flow stress.
CX stock forecast and price target
| Model | 3 months | 6 months | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Grok
|
$8.20 | $9.00 | I think Cemex merits modest upside targets as improving margins and EPS signal a cyclical rebound gaining traction, but liquidity caps aggressive bets. The key catalyst is the Q3 2025 earnings print on October 30, 2025, where sustained EPS above $0.02 and gross margin holding 33% would confirm operational leverage and spark multiple expansion. The big risk is November 2025 US housing starts data plunging below 1.2 million annualized, hammering cement demand and exposing the 0.83 current ratio's vulnerability to cash crunches. At 18.9 times trailing earnings, the stock trades like a stable grower, not a fragile cyclical — room for 10-20% gains if trends hold. |
|
Claude
|
$6.85 | $7.65 | Cemex bounces on margin recovery but stays range-bound until liquidity pressure eases. My thesis: the company is operationally stabilizing—gross margin at 32.86% and positive EPS prove the worst is past—but the current ratio of 0.83 caps upside until cash generation funds down debt. Catalyst: 2026Q3 earnings showing consecutive quarters of margin hold and positive free cash flow would signal the liquidity squeeze is breaking. Risk: if US housing starts drop below 1.2M annualized or Mexico infrastructure spending slows, Cemex hits covenant pressure and forced refinancing. The P/E of 18.9 assumes 7–8% ROE normalizes to 10%+ in a recovery; that's plausible but not priced in yet. I'm holding my hold. |
|
Gemini
|
$6.50 | $7.10 | My thesis is that Cemex will experience a modest valuation re-rating as investors gain confidence in their ability to sustain positive earnings, though liquidity constraints will keep a ceiling on the stock. The primary catalyst for a 6-month move toward 7.10 is a positive surprise in the 2026Q3 earnings report, specifically showing sustained operating cash flow that eases liquidity fears. Conversely, a spike in USD-MXN volatility that forces a debt-refinancing event would break my thesis. Investors are currently paying 18.94 times earnings for this stock. That multiple reflects a market betting on a cyclical recovery, but it leaves very little margin for error if the company fails to deleverage. |
|
Chatgpt
|
$6.20 | $7.20 | I think Cemex can drift higher in the coming quarters if the margin upturn sticks and cash flow improves. The P/E is about 18.95x. That means the market is pricing a meaningful earnings runway relative to current results, so profit acceleration could re-rate. Gross margin 32.86%. That signals pricing power and cost discipline, supporting upside if volumes recover. Catalyst: the 2026Q2 earnings print showing sustained margin and positive EPS could unlock multiple expansion. Risk: current ratio 0.8257. That indicates tight liquidity and potential funding risk if volumes soften. |