Crude Prices Surge With No End in Sight to US-Iran War

June WTI crude oil (CLM26) on Wednesday closed up +6.95 (+6.95%), and June RBOB gasoline (RBM26) closed up +0.1650 (+4.81%). Crude oil and gasoline prices extended this week's sharp rally on Wednesday, with crude oil posting a 3-week high and gasoline posting a 3.75-year high. Crude prices continue to climb as stalled peace talks between the US and Iran are keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, tightening global oil supplies. Crude prices added to their gains today on a bullish weekly EIA inventory report and after President Trump rejected the most recent peace proposal from Iran.

Crude prices soared on Wednesday after the US signaled it will maintain its naval blockade of Iran for the foreseeable future. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told his aides to prepare for an extended blockade and that it carries less of a risk for the US than resuming hostilities or walking away from the conflict without securing a deal that curbs Iran's nuclear activities.

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Crude oil raced to its highs on Wednesday afternoon when President Trump told Axios that he will not lift a naval blockade of Iran's ports until he secures a deal with Iran to address the country's nuclear program.

Energy prices remain underpinned amid the Strait of Hormuz's continued closure, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis. The ongoing blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million bpd, or more than 50%, so far in April, and that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, which could hit a billion bbl by June.

Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut production by roughly 6% due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as local storage facilities reach capacity. On April 13, the US began a blockade of all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or are headed there. President Trump said that the US naval blockade in the strait "will remain in full force" until a deal is fully agreed. Iran had been able to export crude during the war before the blockade, as it exported about 1.7 million bpd in March.

On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it will leave OPEC on May 1. The UAE's decision to leave OPEC, the third-largest producer in the cartel, is potentially bearish for crude prices, as it allows the UAE to boost production without being constrained by OPEC's output quotas.

On April 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that about 13 million bpd of global oil supply has been shuttered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA also said that more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged during the conflict, and a recovery could take as long as two years.

In a bearish factor for crude, OPEC+ on April 5 said it will boost its crude output by 206,000 bpd in May, although that production hike now seems unlikely given that Middle East producers are being forced to cut production due to the Middle East war. OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 827,000 bpd left to restore. OPEC's March crude production fell by -7.56 million bpd to a 35-year low of 22.05 million bpd.

Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +25% w/w to 153.11 million bbl in the week ended April 24, the highest in 3 months.

The most recent US-brokered meeting in Geneva to end the war between Russia and Ukraine ended early as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war. Russia has said the "territorial issue" remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there's "no hope of achieving a long-term settlement" to the war until Russia's demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted. The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 30 Russian refineries over the past ten months, limiting Russia's crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies. Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea. In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Wednesday's weekly EIA report is bullish for crude oil and products. EIA crude inventories fell by -6.23 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -190,000 bbl. Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell 6.075 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -2.785 million bbl. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles fell 4.49 million bbl to a 9.5-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -2.15 million bbl. Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell by -796,000 bbl.

Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of April 24 were +1.2% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.3% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending April 24 was unchanged w/w at 13.586 million bpd, mildly below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended April 24 fell by -3 to 407 rigs, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.

• On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com *