Saham Avis Budget Baru Saja Dipotong Dua dalam Sekejap Mata... dan Wall Street Berpikir Itu Masih Jauh untuk Turun

Avis Budget Group (CAR) has delivered one of the most violent round-trips in recent market history. In a matter of weeks from late March, the stock surged over 600% on the back of an extreme short squeeze, only to collapse by almost 70% in just two trading sessions.

What looked like a breakout story quickly reversed itself. With an unusually high short interest of 9.03 million shares sold short, representing 26.1% of the public float, and a tightly held float, the setup was primed for a squeeze of historic proportions. As short sellers rushed to cover, price action detached entirely from fundamentals, pushing shares to intraday highs above $800 before gravity reasserted itself. Avis Budget has a short interest of 9.03 million shares sold short, representing 26.1% of the public float.

Now, as the squeeze fades, the market is refocusing on Avis Budget’s underlying realities with inconsistent profitability and a business still grappling with structural headwinds. Analysts’ consensus price targets imply steep downside from even post-crash levels. So, if Wall Street is right, the unwind may not be over yet.

About Avis Budget Group Stock

Avis Budget Group is a leading global provider of vehicle rental and mobility solutions, operating well-known brands such as Avis, Budget, and Zipcar. The company primarily serves both commercial and leisure customers through airport and off-airport rental networks, with additional exposure to car-sharing and ancillary services. Headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey, Avis Budget Group has a market cap of around $7.2 billion.

Avis Budget stock returns over the past year have been nothing short of extraordinary but increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has delivered 113.9%, making it one of the best-performing and most volatile names in the market.

Year-to-date (YTD), returns have been equally staggering. CAR has risen 56.36%, dramatically outperforming broader indices. This surge was heavily concentrated in a short time frame, with the stock currently up 35.16% over the past month.

The driver behind this meteoric rise was a classic but extreme short squeeze. Shares surged to a peak of $847.70 on AprIL 22, bearing strong similarities to prior meme-stock episodes, though it was amplified by institutional positioning rather than purely retail flows.

However, the second phase has been just as dramatic. As the squeeze dynamics unwound, CAR experienced one of its sharpest reversals with back-to-back declines of 37.8% on April 22 and 48.4% on April 23. Despite the magnitude of the drop, the stock still remains significantly elevated versus pre-squeeze levels, underscoring inflated valuations.

Muted Financial Performance

Avis Budget Group reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results on Feb. 18, 2026. For the fourth quarter, revenue came in at $2.66 billion, down 2% year-over-year (YOY), reflecting modest declines in both rental days (1% YOY) and revenue per day (2% YOY). Despite the top line pressure, adjusted EBITDA came in at $5 million versus a loss of $101 million in Q4 2024.

However, this was overshadowed by a reported net loss of $856 million, largely attributable to a $518 million impairment charge tied to the company’s electric vehicle fleet strategy. Avis Budget reported a loss per share of $21.25, compared to $55.66 in the same quarter last year.

Operationally, per-unit fleet costs declined 19% YOY, while vehicle utilization improved slightly to 68% (+30 bps YOY). Regionally, both segments saw EBITDA recovery with the Americas posting $1 million versus a $63 million loss last year, and International delivered $21 million versus a $11 million loss, highlighting improved cost structure despite revenue softness.

For the full year 2025, revenue totaled $11.7 billion, down 1% YOY. The company reported a net loss of $995 million, improving from a $1.8 billion loss in 2024, but still reflecting ongoing structural and fleet-related challenges. On an adjusted basis, EBITDA rose 19% YOY to $748 million.

Moreover, rental days were broadly flat, while revenue per day declined 1%. Also, per-unit fleet costs fell 11% YOY, and utilization improved by 100 basis points, reinforcing management’s focus on cost optimization. Liquidity weakened, with total liquidity declining to $818 million from $1.04 billion, and the company generated negative adjusted free cash flow of $698 million, largely due to fleet investments.

Furthermore, management guided to FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $800 million to $1.0 billion, implying a potential recovery from 2025 levels.

Analysts predict EPS to be $3.64 for fiscal 2026, up 134.6% YOY, and 121.4% annually to $8.06 in fiscal 2027.

What Do Analysts Expect for Avis Budget Stock?

Recently, JPMorgan downgraded Avis Budget Group to “Underweight” from “Neutral,” even as it raised its price target to $165 from $123, arguing that the stock’s current level is fundamentally unjustified.

Also, Barclays downgraded the stock to “Underweight” over the same concerns.

Overall, CAR has a consensus “Moderate Sell” rating. Of the nine analysts covering the stock, one advises a “Strong Buy,” four analysts recommend it a “Hold” rating, and four propose a “Strong Sell.”

The average analyst price target for CAR is $120.28, indicating a potential downside of 37.8%. The Street-high target price of $165 also suggests a downside of 14.6%.

On the date of publication, Subhasree Kar did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com