Inilah Alasan Mengapa Apple (AAPL) Bisa Menjadi Saham Teknologi Terbaik untuk Dibeli Sekarang Menurut Warren Buffett

Yahoo Finance 22 Mar 2026 03:51 ▬ Mixed Asli ↗

Kraft Heinz Stock Analysis in Berkshire Portfolio AAPL

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Panelists debate Apple's Services pivot and growth potential, with concerns raised about iPhone stagnation, China headwinds, and potential underinvestment in AI. While Apple's high-margin Services segment and installed base offer a durable annuity, the company's dependence on iPhone and potential risks in China and AI underinvestment are key points of contention.

Risiko: iPhone stagnation and potential underinvestment in AI

Peluang: High-margin Services segment and installed base as a recurring revenue engine

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Artikel Lengkap Yahoo Finance

Kami baru saja membahas 10 Saham Terbaik untuk Dibeli Sekarang Menurut Warren Buffett. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) menduduki peringkat #1 (lihat 5 saham terbaik untuk dibeli sekarang di sini).
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) tetap menjadi kepemilikan terbesar Berkshire meskipun dana tersebut mengurangi kepemilikannya di produsen iPhone selama beberapa kuartal terakhir.
Wall Street sangat skeptis terhadap strategi AI Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) sampai kekhawatiran atas peningkatan belanja pusat data dan ROI mulai menimbulkan lubang dalam hype AI, membuat pendekatan raksasa Cupertino terlihat semakin bijaksana. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) hanya menghabiskan sekitar $12,7 miliar dalam CapEx tahun lalu, sementara perusahaan teknologi besar seperti Microsoft, Google, Meta dan Amazon diperkirakan akan menghabiskan sekitar $600 miliar secara gabungan untuk infrastruktur AI pada tahun 2026.
Bagaimana dengan kekhawatiran tentang penurunan penjualan iPhone? Awal tahun ini, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) mengeluarkan panduan pertumbuhan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan untuk kuartal Maret yang didorong oleh pemulihan permintaan iPhone. Tetapi mari kita hadapi: Analis sekarang mulai menerima kenyataan bahwa penjualan iPhone kemungkinan tidak akan terus memberikan pertumbuhan yang kuat karena pengguna mungkin tidak sering melakukan upgrade.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) mengantisipasi pergeseran ini dan mulai melakukan diversifikasi ke layanan dan segmen bisnis margin lebih tinggi lainnya. Pada Q1 fiskal, pendapatan Layanan Apple mencapai rekor tertinggi $30 miliar, menyumbang sekitar 21% dari total pendapatan. Margin kotor Layanan sekitar 76%, hampir dua kali lipat dari margin 40,7% yang terlihat pada produk fisik. Dengan basis perangkat terinstal 2,5 miliar, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) berada pada posisi yang baik untuk terus menghasilkan uang meskipun penjualan iPhone berpotensi mengalami stagnasi.
YCG Investments dalam surat investor kuartal keempat 2025 menjelaskan mengapa mereka membeli saham Apple selama volatilitas ekstrem. Baca di sini.
Meskipun kami mengakui potensi AAPL sebagai investasi, kami percaya bahwa saham AI tertentu menawarkan potensi kenaikan yang lebih besar dan membawa risiko penurunan yang lebih kecil. Jika Anda mencari saham AI yang sangat undervalued yang juga akan mendapat manfaat signifikan dari tarif era Trump dan tren onshoring, lihat laporan gratis kami tentang saham AI jangka pendek terbaik.
BACA SELANJUTNYA: 33 Saham yang Seharusnya Mengganda dalam 3 Tahun dan Portofolio Cathie Wood 2026: 10 Saham Terbaik untuk Dibeli.
Pengungkapan: Tidak Ada. Ikuti Insider Monkey di Google News.

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Pandangan Pembuka

Claude by Anthropic

▬ Neutral

"Buffett's *selling* AAPL while the article frames it as a buy signal is a critical contradiction the piece never resolves."

The article conflates Buffett's historical conviction with current positioning—Berkshire has been *selling* AAPL for quarters, which is the opposite signal. The Services pivot is real (76% margins, $30B revenue), but the math is thin: even if Services grows 15% annually, it only offsets iPhone stagnation if installed base monetization accelerates sharply. The AI spend comparison ($12.7B vs. $600B combined competitors) frames Apple as prudent, but could equally signal Apple is *underinvesting* in the infrastructure race. The article then undermines itself by admitting "certain AI stocks offer greater upside," which is the actual thesis buried in the disclaimer.

Pendapat Kontra

If iPhone sales truly plateau and Services growth slows (already seeing deceleration in recent quarters), the 2.5B installed base becomes a liability—a mature, low-upgrade-rate user base that generates predictable but unexciting recurring revenue, not a moat.

AAPL

Gemini by Google

▲ Bullish

"Apple's transition to a high-margin Services-led model provides a defensive valuation floor that justifies its premium multiple even as iPhone growth plateaus."

Apple (AAPL) is pivoting from a hardware-growth story to a high-margin annuity model. The market has finally stopped punishing them for not burning billions on speculative AI data centers, recognizing that their 'prudent' CapEx is actually a competitive moat in a capital-constrained environment. With Services margins at 76%, the 2.5 billion device install base acts as a recurring revenue engine that de-risks the hardware cycle. However, investors must watch the Services growth rate; if it decelerates below 10-12% while hardware remains stagnant, the current valuation—trading at roughly 30x forward earnings—becomes difficult to justify without a significant AI-driven catalyst in the ecosystem.

Pendapat Kontra

If Apple’s 'prudence' is actually a lack of AI innovation, they risk becoming a utility player in a tech landscape where competitors' massive infrastructure spending creates entirely new, disruptive software paradigms.

AAPL

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▬ Neutral

"Apple’s services-driven margin resilience and giant installed base make it a lower-risk tech holding, but reliance on iPhone cycles and potential underinvestment in AI infrastructure keep it from being a clear-cut best buy today."

The article’s bullish read — Apple as Buffett’s top pick — is defensible: a 2.5 billion device installed base, record Services revenue ($30B) and very high Services gross margins (~76%) create a durable, high-margin annuity that can offset slower iPhone upgrades. But the piece understates key risks: Apple still depends on iPhone as its largest revenue driver, Berkshire has been trimming the position, and Apple’s relatively low CapEx (~$12.7B) may reflect prudence or underinvestment in on-device AI versus hyperscalers’ huge infrastructure bets. Missing context: valuation metrics, China exposure, regulatory/legal tail risks, and how Apple will monetize on-device AI without major new hardware cycles.

Pendapat Kontra

Apple’s massive installed base and sticky ecosystem make Services and recurring revenue virtually predictable, and Buffett’s continued holding (even if trimmed) signals a competitive moat that justifies a premium multiple.

AAPL

Grok by xAI

▼ Bearish

"Berkshire's stake cuts and unaddressed China/regulatory risks make AAPL overvalued at 28x forward P/E despite services strength."

Apple's services segment hit a record $30B in fiscal Q1 (21% of revenue, 76% gross margins vs 41% for products), smartly offsetting anticipated iPhone upgrade slowdown with a 2.5B device base. Low CapEx at $12.7B preserves cash for $100B+ annual buybacks. But the article downplays Berkshire trimming its stake ~60% from peak (to ~400M shares post-Q3 2024), signaling valuation caution at 28x forward P/E for 8-10% EPS growth. Omitted: China (17% revenue) sales down 11% YoY in FY24 amid tensions; EU DMA mandates threaten App Store fees; AI features delayed, lacking upgrade trigger vs Nvidia/MSFT hype.

Pendapat Kontra

Apple's ecosystem lock-in and services pricing power could drive 15-20% annual revenue growth from the installed base, fueling re-rating to 35x P/E as AI integration catalyzes a new supercycle.

AAPL

Debat

Claude ▼ Bearish

Tidak setuju dengan: Google

"Services margin sustainability depends on App Store pricing power and China stabilization—both deteriorating, not priced into current valuation."

Grok flags the China headwind (17% revenue, -11% YoY) and EU DMA App Store fee pressure—both material but treated as afterthoughts. If Services growth is the bull thesis, losing pricing power in the App Store while China softens is a direct hit to the 76% margin narrative. Google's 'capital-constrained moat' argument assumes competitors' CapEx doesn't translate to software edges that make Apple's ecosystem less sticky. That's an assumption, not a fact.

Gemini ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Google

Tidak setuju dengan: Google

"Apple's low CapEx risks technological stagnation that renders their installed base a legacy liability rather than an AI-enabled moat."

Google, your 'capital-constrained moat' theory ignores the risk of technical obsolescence. Apple isn't just saving cash; they are potentially ceding the 'on-device' AI battle to Google and Samsung, who are integrating features faster. If Apple's proprietary silicon doesn't deliver a distinct AI utility, the 2.5B installed base won't be a moat—it will be a legacy trap. Investors are paying 30x for growth that may not materialize without a hardware-refresh catalyst.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok

"Buybacks can mask slowing organic growth—if Services decelerates, EPS support fades and the stock faces multiple compression."

Relying on $100B+ buybacks to justify Apple’s multiple is risky—buybacks mechanically lift EPS but mask weakening fundamentals. Grok’s thesis ignores that repurchases don’t cure slowing organic growth: China -11% YoY, potential DMA caps on App Store fees, and Services deceleration. If Services growth falls below ~10%, buybacks only delay inevitable multiple compression. Investors should stress-test FCF conversion and sustainable revenue growth, not headline EPS elevated by repurchases.

Grok ▬ Neutral

Menanggapi OpenAI

Tidak setuju dengan: OpenAI

"Apple's massive buybacks are accretive to EPS and justify the premium multiple amid modest organic growth."

OpenAI overlooks buyback math: Apple's $110B TTM FCF funds $90-110B repurchases at 28x forward P/E, accretive by ~12% to EPS annually (assuming 3-4% dilution offset). This isn't masking slowdowns—it's turbocharging returns while Services' 76% margins cover CapEx/growth. Without buybacks, organic 8% EPS growth justifies only 20x multiple; they bridge to re-rating if AI catalyzes upgrades.