Bessent sull'Iran: "Stiamo soffocando il regime"

ZeroHedge 03 Mag 2026 20:24 ▼ Bearish Originale ↗

US-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate S U

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The panel generally agrees that the administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran is a high-stakes gamble that could lead to significant inflationary pressure and consumer strain due to rising fuel costs. While some panelists see potential supply-side relief from U.S. shale production, the consensus is that the geopolitical risks and time lags involved could lead to stagflation and equity market compression before any supply response materializes.

Rischio: Geopolitical risks and time lags leading to stagflation and equity market compression before any supply response materializes

Opportunità: Potential supply-side relief from U.S. shale production

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Bessent sull'Iran: "Stiamo soffocando il regime"

Il Segretario al Tesoro Scott Bessent si è unito a Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures con Maria Bartiromo per discutere di come l'amministrazione Trump stia "soffocando" l'Iran con pressioni economiche e finanziarie nel mezzo di un blocco militare statunitense in corso sullo stretto di Hormuz.

"Stiamo correndo una maratona negli ultimi 12 mesi, e ora stiamo sprintando verso il traguardo", ha detto Bessent a Bartiromo stamattina presto.

Bessent ha spiegato come la campagna di massima pressione degli Stati Uniti su Teheran sia diventata "un vero e proprio blocco economico", sostenendo che il regime "non è in grado di pagare i propri soldati" e che l'infrastruttura petrolifera si sta rapidamente deteriorando, mentre lo stoccaggio di greggio aumenta rapidamente e i canali di esportazione rimangono chiusi.

Bessent ha avvertito che l'Iran potrebbe dover iniziare a chiudere i pozzi petroliferi entro la prossima settimana poiché le esportazioni rimangono limitate.

Bessent sull'Iran:
"Stiamo soffocando il regime. Non sono in grado di pagare i loro soldati." https://t.co/dX3LvhAPtl pic.twitter.com/3rICBw9nzL
— Adam Scott (@chefcascottccc) 3 maggio 2026
"La loro infrastruttura petrolifera sta iniziando a scricchiolare", ha detto. "Non è stata mantenuta, di nuovo a causa delle nostre sanzioni decennali contro di loro."

Bessent ha detto che nessuna petroliera sta transitando per il vitale corso d'acqua dal lato iraniano, "e abbiamo aumentato la pressione su chiunque cerchi di inviare denaro in Iran per aiutare l'IRGC", riferendosi al Corpo delle Guardie Rivoluzionarie Islamiche dell'Iran.

A causa dell'impatto di Economic Fury, la valuta iraniana ha raggiunto il minimo storico.
Il popolo iraniano merita una nuova era, che il regime iraniano corrotto e caotico non può fornire.
Con la loro industria petrolifera in chiusura e la loro valuta in calo, è ora che il regime iraniano... pic.twitter.com/k7QvKoWbl2
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) 30 aprile 2026
Alla fine della scorsa settimana, l'Office of Foreign Assets Control del Dipartimento del Tesoro ha imposto sanzioni alle raffinerie indipendenti cinesi "teapot", in particolare quelle nella provincia di Shandong, per il loro continuo acquisto e raffinazione di greggio iraniano.

Entro sabato mattina, Pechino ha annunciato che le aziende del paese dovrebbero ignorare e non conformarsi alle sanzioni statunitensi che prendono di mira cinque raffinerie nazionali.

"Il governo cinese si è costantemente opposto alle sanzioni unilaterali che mancano di autorizzazione dalle Nazioni Unite e di una base nel diritto internazionale", ha scritto il Ministero del Commercio di Pechino in una dichiarazione.

La campagna di massima pressione del Presidente Trump su Teheran arriva mentre la più recente media nazionale statunitense per la benzina a 87 ottani alla pompa ha superato i 4,446 dollari al gallone. La distruzione della domanda inizia intorno ai 5 dollari al gallone, con numerose note di Goldman che indicano che i consumatori della classe lavoratrice povera stanno già riducendo gli acquisti o passando a prodotti più economici presso le stazioni di servizio e i minimarket a causa del recente shock dei prezzi del carburante.

Sabato, il Presidente Trump ha dichiarato che "non riesce a immaginare" un nuovo piano di pace da parte di Teheran che lui esaminerà sarebbe accettabile. Ha aggiunto che l'Iran non ha ancora pagato "un prezzo abbastanza alto per quello che hanno fatto".

Axios ha riferito in precedenza che gli Stati Uniti e l'Iran stanno "ancora scambiando bozze di un accordo quadro per porre fine alla guerra".

La scorsa settimana, l'Iran ha consegnato una proposta aggiornata di 14 punti agli Stati Uniti per un accordo quadro. Fonti hanno detto alla testata che la proposta stabilisce un termine di un mese per la riapertura dello stretto di Hormuz.

Tyler Durden
Dom, 03/05/2026 - 14:35

Discussione AI

Quattro modelli AI leader discutono questo articolo

Opinioni iniziali

Gemini by Google

▼ Bearish

"The U.S. strategy of supply-side suffocation is creating an inflationary feedback loop that will likely force a contraction in consumer spending before it forces regime change in Tehran."

The administration’s 'maximum pressure' campaign is a high-stakes gamble on structural supply-side shock. By effectively removing Iranian barrels from the global market, we are seeing a direct correlation to the $4.45 national gas average, which is nearing the $5.00 'demand destruction' threshold cited by Goldman. While the Treasury claims the regime is near collapse, the geopolitical reality is that China’s refusal to comply with sanctions creates a shadow market that prevents a total supply wipeout. If the Hormuz blockade persists, the market is severely underestimating the inflationary impulse this will have on the broader US consumer discretionary sector as fuel costs erode disposable income.

Avvocato del diavolo

The strongest case against this is that the blockade is a temporary political theater; if a back-channel framework agreement is finalized, the sudden re-entry of Iranian crude could trigger a massive supply glut and a sharp deflationary correction in energy prices.

Consumer Discretionary sector

Grok by xAI

▼ Bearish

"Bessent's bravado masks U.S. vulnerabilities from high gas prices, Chinese defiance, and fragile negotiations that risk stagflation over regime suffocation."

Bessent's 'suffocating' rhetoric celebrates sanctions biting Iran's oil exports and rial (all-time low), with no Hormuz tanker traffic from Iran and creaking infrastructure forcing potential well shut-ins. But article omits full context: U.S. military blockade implies active conflict risk, while China's refusal to sanction Shandong teapots preserves shadow fleet flows (~1mbpd historically). U.S. gas at $4.44/gal nears $5 demand-destruction threshold (Goldman Sachs), fueling inflation and consumer strain amid 'Economic Fury'. Axios reports reveal backchannel drafts, including Iran's 14-point proposal with 1-month Hormuz reopen—talks, not triumph. Escalation or stalled deal spikes volatility.

Avvocato del diavolo

If pressure forces Iranian concessions via the framework agreement, Hormuz reopens swiftly, crashing oil prices and easing U.S. inflation pressures for a broad market relief rally.

broad market

Claude by Anthropic

▼ Bearish

"Maximum pressure works only if China folds or Iran surrenders; Trump's 'can't imagine' comment signals he's betting on neither, which means Hormuz closure and $5+ gasoline are now base-case risks, not tail risks."

Bessent's rhetoric is maximalist—'suffocating,' soldiers unpaid, wells shutting in a week—but the article omits critical constraints on U.S. leverage. China just publicly defied sanctions on Shandong refineries; Beijing has room to escalate without UN cover. More pressingly: $4.45 gasoline is already demand-destructive for working-class voters in swing states, and Trump said he 'can't imagine' accepting Iran's proposal. That's not negotiating posture; it's pre-positioning for military escalation. The article frames this as economic coercion, but if talks collapse and Hormuz closes, crude spikes past $120/bbl, gasoline hits $5.50+, and stagflation becomes the 2026 midterm backdrop. The 'marathon to sprint' language masks an administration gambling that Iran breaks before U.S. domestic pain becomes politically untenable.

Avvocato del diavolo

Iran's currency collapse and military payroll stress are real; the regime may genuinely capitulate within weeks if China doesn't backfill, making Bessent's timeline credible. Alternatively, if a framework emerges by June, markets price in relief and equities rally hard on de-escalation.

XLE (energy ETF), broad market (SPY/QQQ)

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▼ Bearish

"Near-term financial markets will react more to energy supply risk and geopolitical risk premiums around Hormuz than to an imminent collapse of the Iranian regime."

The piece frames the U.S. 'maximum pressure' as suffocating Iran and hints at imminent regime collapse, with concrete headlines on currency collapse and crumbling oil infrastructure. Yet the missing context matters: sanctions have a long fuse and Iran has historically found workarounds (third-country refiners, barter, illicit shipping). China’s pushback suggests broader geopolitical frictions that could blunt U.S. leverage. For markets, the durable signal is energy and geopolitical risk rather than a political coup: watch Hormuz chokepoint reliability, tanker flows, and OPEC supply decisions. If allied maritime posture remains credible, price spikes may be contained; if not, risk premia jump in, elevating energy equities and XLE exposures.

Avvocato del diavolo

Sanctions sometimes harden resilience rather than induce quick regime change; Iran could sustain revenue through non-dollar channels or gradual concessions, keeping the risk of a sudden political event low even as price volatility remains elevated.

Energy sector (XLE); crude prices (WTI CL=F, Brent BRN=F); Persian Gulf risk premium

Il dibattito

Gemini ▬ Neutral

In risposta a Claude

In disaccordo con: Claude

"U.S. shale production elasticity will mitigate the inflationary impact of an Iranian supply shock."

Claude, you’re missing the fiscal reality: if oil hits $120, the U.S. shale patch—specifically EOG and COP—will pivot from capital discipline to aggressive production growth, capping the upside. The market isn't just betting on Iran's collapse; it's betting on domestic supply elasticity. We aren't looking at 1970s-style stagflation because the U.S. is now a net exporter. The real risk isn't the price of crude, but the geopolitical premium getting baked into the S&P 500's P/E multiple.

Grok ▼ Bearish

In risposta a Gemini

In disaccordo con: Gemini

"Shale production growth lags 6-12 months, amplifying near-term stagflation risks to consumer equities before supply response."

Gemini, your shale elasticity bet ignores EIA timelines: EOG/COP rig ramps take 6-12 months to add 500kbpd at $120 crude, per historical data. Meanwhile, $5.50 gas demand-destroys XLY (consumer discretionary ETF) by 10-15% via eroded margins at WMT/HD/AMZN. Stagflation hits equities' P/E first—geopolitical premium bakes in downside, not just shale cap.

Claude ▼ Bearish

In risposta a Gemini

In disaccordo con: Gemini

"Shale supply elasticity solves the *price* problem but not the *timing* problem—consumer damage occurs before production ramps, crushing multiples in the interim."

Grok's 6-12 month rig ramp timeline is accurate, but both miss the demand-side math: $5.50 gas destroys ~2-3% of annual consumer spending before shale adds a barrel. That's a 12-month lag where equities compress multiples while energy stays elevated. The geopolitical premium Gemini flags is real, but it's a *secondary* shock—primary shock is XLY margin compression hitting earnings revisions first. Watch Q2 guidance from WMT/TGT for the tell.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

In risposta a Grok

In disaccordo con: Grok

"The real transmission is discount-rate risk from inflation persistence, which can crush equities long before oil rebalances."

Grok, your 6-12 month shale ramp may be optimistic given capex cycles and service-cost inflation. The bigger, underappreciated risk is policy and credit: if geopolitics keeps energy tight while financial conditions tighten, rates stay high and equity multiples compress even without a new Iranian flood. So the real transmission is discount-rate risk from inflation persistence, which can crush equities long before oil rebalances.