"Buy The Dip" È Morto: I Dettagli Vendono il Rimbalzo del Mercato di Oggi, Seconda Volta Questa Settimana; Vendono Nvidia

"Buy The Dip" Is Dead: Retail Sells Today's Market Bounce, 2nd Time This Week; Sells Nvidia

Due settimane fa abbiamo avvertito che il trade BTFD - quella pietra miliare di ogni correzione di mercato negli ultimi 3 anni - sembrava in rapida scomparsa, poiché gli investitori al dettaglio stavano manifestando "segni di debolezza persistenti" dopo l'inizio del conflitto Iran-Siria con acquisti settimanali in decelerazione del ~30% dopo aver sfidato i modelli stagionali e facendo febbraio il loro terzo mese più grande di sempre; inoltre, lunedì è stato il giorno di vendita netta al dettaglio più grande in azioni singole in un mese.

There was a silver lining: according to JPMorgan, despite the pullback, retail stock-picking choices - aside from reduced sizes - remained relatively optimistic: gli investitori al dettaglio hanno acquistato Tech Mega Caps (incl. ORCL pre e post-utile), mentre hanno ridotto la loro esposizione alle azioni energetiche. O, come JPM ha detto, "nonostante il mercato si sia svalutato questo mese, a causa di sviluppi geopolitici e preoccupazioni esistenti relative all'IA che si sono riversate nei mercati azionari e obbligazionari, gli investitori al dettaglio hanno continuato a preferire le azioni sull'IA, finanziando il trade vendendo azioni non sull'IA".

One week later, it went from bad to worse for retail demand, quando la nota Retail Radar della settimana ha trovato che i dollari di investimento al dettaglio si sono ridotti del 15% a settimana - e sono crollati del 43% dall'inizio del conflitto - con acquisti di ETF in calo del 22% a settimana e acquisti di azioni singole che sono rimasti stabili a un modesto 45%.

Fast forward to today when we can (almost) officially declare the time of death of the BTFD trade.

While many would have expected retail investors to jump at the opportunity to ride today's early morning meltup which was driven by ceasefire optimism, Vanda Research writes that "the retail bid was notably absent today."

As shown in the chart below, in the first 2 hours of trading, instead of buying retail actually sold $5.5mn of US-listed single stocks, in line with the muted activity seen earlier this Monday.

Today's selling followed an especially ugly Monday: that's when retail posted its first day of net selling in single stocks since November 2023, unloading $20.6 million in shares, according to Vanda Research. That selling came as the S&P 500 Index (SPY) rallied after Trump eased back on his threat to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure, a backdrop that suggests even a rebound in the broader market is no longer drawing the same level of retail enthusiasm.

Echoing JPMorgan, Vanda said retail demand had been fading steadily as the conflict in the Middle East dragged on, and the firm described the trend since the start of March as one of gradually receding retail participation. Although individual investors returned to buying on Tuesday, picking up roughly $262.3 million in shares while the S&P 500 edged lower, the benchmark is still down almost 5% this month. At the same time, Vanda said systematic deleveraging has been underway, while buying from long-only and hedge fund investors has remained only modest.

There's more: while two weeks ago retail sold stocks yet bought the badly lagging Mag7, and especially NVDA, today the largest company in the world stood out. Despite being the clear retail favorite over the past two weeks, the stock was seeing net selling of -$54.8mn in early trading, making it the most sold name in today’s session, even as price attempts to stabilise.

As Vanda concludes, "Overall, retail is not chasing the ceasefire hope driven bounce and is instead trimming exposure in its most crowded AI winner."

In other words, instead of BTFD, retail is now STFR.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 - 13:50