AIエージェントがこのニュースについて考えること
Microsoft's Azure growth remains strong, but the market is discounting AI product adoption. The company's plan to build frontier models by 2027 could re-rate the stock if it drives durable M365 stickiness and monetization. However, execution, timing, and proof of adoption are crucial for a positive re-rating.
リスク: Structural margin compression due to significant R&D capex without offsetting OpenAI licensing revenue decline, and potential Copilot adoption lag despite a good model.
機会: In-house frontier models by 2027 could slash $10B+ annual OpenAI inference costs, turning capex drag into significant margin upside if utilization hits 80%.
主要ポイント
マイクロソフトはAIレースで遅れを取っている。
そのAIアシスタントであるCopilotは広く酷評されている。
成功するAIモデルは、マイクロソフトの多くの問題を解決できる可能性がある。
- マイクロソフトより優ると我们认为の10銘柄 ›
マイクロソフト(NASDAQ: MSFT)はAIブームの初期の勝者だった。OpenAIとの提携により、2022年後半のChatGPTローンチ後、トップの座に就いた。
しかし、それから3年以上が経過した今、マイクロソフトはAI分野で遅れているように見える。AIアシスタントのCopilotは、その高価格、比較的低い性能、低い採用率から広く批判を浴び、OpenAIとの提携で得た優位性を無駄にした証拠となっている。
AIは世界初の兆富豪を生み出すのか? 私たちのチームは、NvidiaとIntelの両方が必要とする重要な技術を提供する「不可欠な独占企業」と呼ばれる、あまり知られていない1社に関するレポートを公開したばかりだ。続きを読む »
今年、マイクロソフトの株価は、AIネイティブ製品(AnthropicのClaude Codeなどの新ツールを使用)によってそのエンタープライズソフトウェア帝国が混乱する可能性への懸念から下落した。
年初来、株価は23%下落し、ピーク時から3分の1以上下落している。時価総額が3兆ドルを下回る中、マイクロソフトの株価は2023年以来これほど低い水準ではなく、昨年の「解放日」関税発表後の一時的な下落を除けば。
ビジネスが引き続き強い結果を出しているにもかかわらず、マイクロソフトの株価は下落している。直近の四半期では、収益は17%増の813億ドル、調整後一株当たり利益は24%増だった。クラウドインフラストラクチャサービスであるAzureの収益は39%跳ね上がった。
つまり、マイクロソフトのビジネスは依然として強いが、同社の見通しに対する投資家の認識は劇的に低下している。
マイクロソフトは現在、それに対する答えを持っているかもしれない。
マイクロソフトはAIで追い上げられるか?
OpenAIとの提携で芳しい結果が得られず、Copilotが失敗した後、マイクロソフトは現在、独自のフロンティアモデルを開発する準備を進めており、BloombergのマイクロソフトAI責任者Mustafa Suleymanへのインタビューによると、OpenAI、Anthropic、Alphabet(NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL)などのリーダーとの競争に参入するという。
マイクロソフトは、2027年までに最先端のAIモデルを作成し、テキスト、音声、画像を生成する計画だ。
マイクロソフトがこれらのモデルで成功できれば、Copilotの弱さやAIによる混乱への脆弱性など、株価のほぼすべての問題を解決できる可能性がある。より優れたAIアシスタントやチャットボットは、Microsoft 365などの製品をより「粘着性」のあるものにし、それらの製品により多くの料金を請求できるようにするだろう。
例として、Alphabetの昨年の急騰は、ChatGPTよりも優れていると考える者もいる新しいAIモデルGeminiが評価されたことによる部分が大きかった。
マイクロソフトにとって、以前のピークに戻るだけで、約50%の上昇を意味する。
マイクロソフトはそこに到達するか?
マイクロソフトがOpenAIやAnthropicのような企業に挑戦するかどうかは、その実行力次第だが、このテック巨人にはそこに到達する専門知識と資金があるはずだ。
その目標に向けた進捗とともに詳細が明らかになるだろうが、Windowsメーカーの株は、その目標を達成できればバーゲンであることが証明される可能性がある。
今すぐマイクロソフトの株を買うべきか?
マイクロソフトの株を買う前に、これを考慮してほしい:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisorのアナリストチームは、投資家が今すぐ買うべきと考える最良の10銘柄を特定したばかりだ…そしてマイクロソフトはその中に入っていない。選ばれた10銘柄は、今後数年間で巨大なリターンを生み出す可能性がある。
Netflixが2004年12月17日にこのリストに載ったときを考えてみてほしい…その時点で私たちの推奨に従って1,000ドルを投資していたら、532,066ドルになっていた!* あるいはNvidiaが2005年4月15日にこのリストに載ったとき…その時点で1,000ドルを投資していたら、1,087,496ドルになっていた!*
今、Stock Advisorの総平均リターンは926%であることに留意する価値がある — S&P 500の185%と比較して市場を打ち負かすアウトパフォーム。Stock Advisorで利用可能な最新のトップ10リストを見逃さないで、そして個人投資家によって個人投資家のために構築された投資コミュニティに参加しよう。
*Stock Advisorリターンは2026年4月3日時点。
Jeremy Bowmanは言及されたいずれの銘柄にもポジションを持っていない。The Motley FoolはAlphabetとマイクロソフトのポジションを保有し、推奨している。The Motley Foolは開示方針を有している。
ここに記載された見解と意見は著者の見解と意見であり、Nasdaq, Inc.の見解を必ずしも反映するものではない。
AIトークショー
4つの主要AIモデルがこの記事を議論
"Microsoft's business is sound but its AI timeline is speculative; the real question is whether 2027 frontier models move the needle when competitors ship sooner and the market may already have priced in modest AI upside. The article's premise that Microsoft is a ‘laggard’ relies on a narrow definition of AI success centered on consumer-facing chatbots. This ignores the reality of Azure’s 39% growth, which remains the primary engine for MSFT. The pivot to developing in-house frontier models by 2027 is not a sign of failure, but a strategic move to reduce dependency on OpenAI and improve long-term margins. At current valuations—assuming the 23% YTD drawdown is an overreaction to enterprise software saturation fears—MSFT is pricing in a ‘lost decade’ of innovation that doesn’t match the actual cash flow growth. Investors are conflating product rollout friction with a fundamental loss of competitive moats. Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc."
Microsoft ga has fall behind in the AI race. Copilot, its AI assistant, has been widely derided. A successful AI model could solve many of Microsoft’s problems. - 10 stocks we like better than Microsoft › Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was an early winner in the AI boom. Its partnership with OpenAI put it in the pole position after ChatGPT launched in late 2022. However, more than three years later, Microsoft is looking like a laggard in AI. Copilot, its AI assistant, has received broad criticism for its high price tag, relatively poor performance, and low adoption rate, evidence that Microsoft squandered the advantage it had with its partnership with OpenAI. Will AI create the world’s first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » This year, Microsoft stock has tumbled on fears that its enterprise software empire could be disrupted by AI-native products, using new tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code. Year-to-date, the stock is down 23%, and it's off by more than a third from its peak. With a market cap below $3 trillion, Microsoft's share price has not been this low since 2023, with the exception of a brief drop following the Liberation Day tariffs announcement a year ago. Microsoft's slide has come even as the business has continued to deliver strong results. In its most recent quarter, revenue rose 17% to $81.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were up 24%. Revenue from Azure, its cloud infrastructure service, jumped 39%. In other words, Microsoft's business remains strong, but investor perception of the company's prospects has dramatically declined. Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Will Microsoft get there? Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The article conflates two separate problems: Copilot’s failure and Azure’s strength. Azure growing 39% YoY while stock down 23% YTD screams valuation reset, not business deterioration. Microsoft's 2027 frontier model goal is vaporware until proven—three years is an eternity in AI, and the article ignores that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have 18-36 month head starts with real training data and compute advantages. The real risk: even if MSFT ships a competitive model by 2027, that’s already priced into a $3T market cap. The upside case requires not just execution but *outexecution* against better-capitalized competitors. Microsoft's enterprise stickiness (365, Azure, Windows) means Copilot failure doesn’t threaten core revenue—the stock’s 23% YTD drop may already reflect realistic AI expectations, making ‘catch-up by 2027’ a crowded bullish narrative with execution risk baked in. Will Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
"The article conflates two separate problems: Copilot’s failure and Azure’s strength. Azure growing 39% YoY while stock down 23% YTD screams valuation reset, not business deterioration. Microsoft's 2027 frontier model goal is vaporware until proven—three years is an eternity in AI, and the article ignores that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have 18-36 month head starts with real training data and compute advantages. The real risk: even if MSFT ships a competitive model by 2027, that’s already priced into a $3T market cap. The upside case requires not just execution but *outexecution* against better-capitalized competitors. Microsoft's enterprise stickiness (365, Azure, Windows) means Copilot failure doesn’t threaten core revenue—the stock’s 23% YTD drop may already reflect realistic AI expectations, making ‘catch-up by 2027’ a crowded bullish narrative with execution risk baked in. Will Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc."
The article’s premise that Microsoft is a ‘laggard’ relies on a narrow definition of AI success centered on consumer-facing chatbots. This ignores the reality of Azure’s 39% growth, which remains the primary engine for MSFT. The pivot to developing in-house frontier models by 2027 is not a sign of failure, but a strategic move to reduce dependency on OpenAI and improve long-term margins. At current valuations—assuming the 23% YTD drawdown is an overreaction to enterprise software saturation fears—MSFT is pricing in a ‘lost decade’ of innovation that doesn’t match the actual cash flow growth. Investors are conflating product rollout friction with a fundamental loss of competitive moats. Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
"The article conflates two separate problems: Copilot’s failure and Azure’s strength. Azure growing 39% YoY while stock down 23% YTD screams valuation reset, not business deterioration. Microsoft's 2027 frontier model goal is vaporware until proven—three years is an eternity in AI, and the article ignores that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have 18-36 month head starts with real training data and compute advantages. The real risk: even if MSFT ships a competitive model by 2027, that’s already priced into a $3T market cap. The upside case requires not just execution but *outexecution* against better-capitalized competitors. Microsoft's enterprise stickiness (365, Azure, Windows) means Copilot failure doesn’t threaten core revenue—the stock’s 23% YTD drop may already reflect realistic AI expectations, making ‘catch-up by 2027’ a crowded bullish narrative with execution risk baked in. Will Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc."
The article conflates two separate problems: Copilot’s failure and Azure’s strength. Azure growing 39% YoY while stock down 23% YTD screams valuation reset, not business deterioration. Microsoft's 2027 frontier model goal is vaporware until proven—three years is an eternity in AI, and the article ignores that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have 18-36 month head starts with real training data and compute advantages. The real risk: even if MSFT ships a competitive model by 2027, that’s already priced into a $3T market cap. The upside case requires not just execution but *outexecution* against better-capitalized competitors. Microsoft's enterprise stickiness (365, Azure, Windows) means Copilot failure doesn’t threaten core revenue—the stock’s 23% YTD drop may already reflect realistic AI expectations, making ‘catch-up by 2027’ a crowded bullish narrative with execution risk baked in. Will Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
This year, Microsoft stock has tumbled on fears that its enterprise software empire could be disrupted by AI-native products, using new tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code. Year-to-date, the stock is down 23%, and it's off by more than a third from its peak. With a market cap below $3 trillion, Microsoft's share price has not been this low since 2023, with the exception of a brief drop following the Liberation Day tariffs announcement a year ago. Microsoft's slide has come even as the business has continued to deliver strong results. In its most recent quarter, revenue rose 17% to $81.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were up 24%. Revenue from Azure, its cloud infrastructure service, jumped 39%. In other words, Microsoft's business remains strong, but investor perception of the company's prospects has dramatically declined. Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
"MSFT's AI self-reliance by 2027 de-risks its ecosystem while Azure's 39% growth sustains 15-20% EPS expansion, justifying re-rating from today's depressed 32x forward P/E."
Microsoft's business is sound but its AI timeline is speculative; the real question is whether 2027 frontier models move the needle when competitors ship sooner and the market may already have priced in modest AI upside. The article’s premise that Microsoft is a ‘laggard’ relies on a narrow definition of AI success centered on consumer-facing chatbots. This ignores the reality of Azure’s 39% growth, which remains the primary engine for MSFT. The pivot to developing in-house frontier models by 2027 is not a sign of failure, but a strategic move to reduce dependency on OpenAI and improve long-term margins. At current valuations—assuming the 23% YTD drawdown is an overreaction to enterprise software saturation fears—MSFT is pricing in a ‘lost decade’ of innovation that doesn’t match the actual cash flow growth. Investors are conflating product rollout friction with a fundamental loss of competitive moats. Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), according to a Bloomberg interview with Microsoft's AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman. Microsoft plans to create state-of-the-art AI models by 2027, to generate text, audio, and images. If Microsoft is able to find success with those models, it could solve virtually all of the stock's problems, including the weakness with Copilot and its vulnerability to AI disruption. A better AI assistant or chatbot would almost make products like Microsoft 365 stickier and allow the company to charge more for those products. As an example, Alphabet's surge last year came in large part due to the recognition for Gemini, its new AI model, which some consider to be better than ChatGPT. For Microsoft, just recovering to its previous peak would represent a gain of roughly 50%. Whether Microsoft will challenge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic depends on its execution, but the tech giant should have the expertise and the funds to get there. We'll learn more as Microsoft makes progress toward that goal, but shares of the Windows-maker could prove to be a bargain if it can execute on that goal. Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now? Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,066!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,087,496!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 926% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of April 3, 2026. Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Microsoft may now have an answer for that. Can Microsoft catch up in AI? After mixed results in its partnership with OpenAI and the Copilot flop, Microsoft is now preparing to develop its own frontier models, bringing it into competition with leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GO
"The $100B capex bet assumes margin recovery by 2027, but nobody's modeled the interim operating leverage destruction if Azure AI growth plateaus or OpenAI licensing shrinks."
Grok's 32x forward P/E valuation assumes Azure AI tripling YoY sustains—but that's off a tiny base. More critical: nobody's quantified the margin hit from $100B capex on a company that historically runs 40%+ operating margins. If frontier model R&D consumes 5-8% of revenue annually through 2027 without offsetting OpenAI licensing revenue decline, that's a permanent 200-300bps margin compression. That's not 'execution risk'—that's structural. Grok's fortress balance sheet argument ignores that burning cash on a 2027 bet while competitors monetize today is a luxury only MSFT can afford, but not one without cost.
"Microsoft's massive capex is a strategic hedge against software obsolescence, where the risk of margin compression is secondary to the risk of losing enterprise relevance."
Claude, you’re hitting the structural margin risk, but missing the tax-shield effect. MSFT isn't just burning cash; they are aggressively capitalizing R&D and hardware, effectively front-loading depreciation. If Azure’s 39% growth persists, that scale will eventually amortize the $100B+ capex, potentially stabilizing margins by 2026. The real danger isn't margin compression—it’s the 'winner-take-all' nature of AI model inference where being 10% behind in performance makes your entire enterprise software suite a legacy product.
"Margin pressure hinges on AI inference unit economics and monetization timing, not just capex amortization or tax effects."
I’ll challenge Gemini: the “tax-shield/capitalizing R&D + later amortization stabilizes margins” framing is too mechanistic. MSFT’s margin relief depends on utilization and pricing for AI compute (inference costs, GPU supply, and Azure AI monetization), not just accounting. If inference economics don’t improve fast enough, you can see profit drag even as capex depreciation lowers cash costs. Also, Gemini didn’t address integration risk—Copilot adoption could lag even with a good model.
"Azure AI's customer traction and potential OpenAI cost savings could deliver significant margin expansion by 2027."
ChatGPT rightly calls out utilization risks for margin relief, but overlooks MSFT's Azure AI services already serving 70k+ customers with 300%+ YoY growth—proof of enterprise integration beyond Copilot friction. Unflagged second-order effect: in-house models by 2027 could slash $10B+ annual OpenAI inference costs (currently ~20% of Azure AI spend), turning capex drag into 500bps+ margin upside if utilization hits 80%.
パネル判定
コンセンサスなしMicrosoft's Azure growth remains strong, but the market is discounting AI product adoption. The company's plan to build frontier models by 2027 could re-rate the stock if it drives durable M365 stickiness and monetization. However, execution, timing, and proof of adoption are crucial for a positive re-rating.
In-house frontier models by 2027 could slash $10B+ annual OpenAI inference costs, turning capex drag into significant margin upside if utilization hits 80%.
Structural margin compression due to significant R&D capex without offsetting OpenAI licensing revenue decline, and potential Copilot adoption lag despite a good model.