2026年にNetflixは買い、売り、または保有すべきか？

Key Points
Much of Netflix’s foreseeable future was seemingly dependent on buying most of Warner Bros. Discovery.
With Paramount Skydance ultimately winning that bidding war, however, investors aren’t quite sure what’s ahead for the streaming leader.
Although Netflix clearly wanted certain Warner assets, there’s still a firmly bullish path forward.
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It would be easy to assume the worst: Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) wanted to acquire (most of) Warner Bros. Discovery and was willing to pay a steep price to get it. The company was ultimately outbid by Paramount Skydance, however, setting the stage for the creation of a formidable rival.
The prospect of buying Warner's streaming assets and intellectual property was mostly unpopular with Netflix shareholders. But the stock has only reclaimed about half of the ground it lost when it first announced its interest in buying these pieces of Warner, which underscores investors' fears of what Warner Bros. and Paramount may be able to accomplish by teaming up.
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The question is: Is the market overestimating or underestimating Netflix's competitiveness in the future streaming landscape. More to the point for interested investors: Is Netflix a buy, sell, or hold this year?
Better off without it?
Most shareholders are now seemingly glad Netflix isn’t going to shell out the $83 billion in cash and stock for Warner's studios, HBO Max, the DC comics franchise -- and some other pieces of the company beyond its television business. But Netflix wanted these assets for a reason. Now it won’t get them; Paramount will.
Sometimes, though, a company is better served in the long run by not being able to do something it wanted to do. This is arguably one of those times, for a handful of reasons.
The most obvious of these is the sheer cost had Netflix been the winning bidder. The $83 billion it was prepared to pay is a lot of money for businesses that collectively generated just slightly more than $20 billion in revenue last year. And it turned a little over $2 billion of that into earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Some cost-saving and revenue-growing synergies would have been achieved (Netflix suggested between $2 billion and $3 billion worth of annual savings), but it's arguable there would have never been enough upside to justify the price that was going to be paid.
Even if the price was going to be more affordable, though, there's still the considerable challenge of integrating a bunch of different business units and brands that were created and developed separately. Even after the two merged companies figured it out, consumers might not be ready to embrace a new entertainment media behemoth.
Take the prospect of combining Netflix's existing streaming platform with HBO Max: Most consumers already report being overwhelmed by too many streaming choices -- including within a single service itself -- as well as annoyed by the ever-rising price of any streaming service.
Industry researcher Antenna reports that churn rates of U.S. streaming customers have been slowly growing since 2023 despite the business' apparent maturity, in step with gradual price increases. Even seamlessly folding HBO Max into Netflix's platform may not have led to the expected result, particularly if it meant a price increase.
Then there's the more philosophical upside of the Warner deal being upended: clarity about its future. Netflix arguably has tons of it now. Warner Bros. Discovery was its only acquisition target of any real interest, so now that it’s off the table, Netflix can go full throttle on organically expanding its reach with initiatives like live sports, advertising, and the development of content and brands that can be monetized beyond consumers' TV screens. It will take longer, but in the long run, it should be better.
The kicker: Just as paying $83 billion for most of Warner Bros. Discovery would have saddled Netflix with billions of dollars in debt, now rival Paramount Skydance is on the hook for $54 billion in new indebtedness besides the $41 billion worth of new shares it will be issuing to complete the deal.
That could keep the $10 billion company that already has more than $13 billion worth of long-term debt fiscally stifled for the indefinite future. And that will limit its investment in other opportunities. Netflix, conversely, remains fiscally flexible, allowing it to maneuver in ways that its combined rivals won't.
The final call
But what does this mean regarding the stock’s attractiveness right now? It's all a net positive that's not reflected in the ticker's present price. So the shares are a buy for 2026, particularly given that they're still down nearly 10% from the point when the idea of acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery was first announced, and still down nearly 30% from their mid-2025 peak.
Not only does this current price not reflect the perceived upside of not buying most of Warner, it also undersells Netflix's status as the premier name in the streaming business -- here and abroad.
That's because analysts expect Netflix's top line to grow more than 13% this year without Warner, and then improve by nearly 12% next year, extending a long-established growth pace that's likely to pump up its profits even faster. The vast majority of the analysts covering this company also rate its stock as a strong buy with a consensus target of $113.09, 20% above the ticker's present price.
Bottom line: There's not one thing wrong with what and where Netflix is today. Don't overthink things here, even though plenty of other investors are doing just that.
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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.