パロアルトネットワークスの株式は、依然としてそのフリーキャッシュフロー（FCF）に基づいて著しく過小評価されています - PANWの投資方法

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) produced strong free cash flow in fiscal Q2 2026. Using a projected 37% adj. FCF margin implies PANW stock could be worth 22%+ more at $200 per share. This article will show how to play this using options.
PANW is at $163.13 in midday trading on Friday, March 20. This is up from a recent trough of $141.67 on Feb. 24, after the company's fiscal Q2 earnings release on Feb. 17.
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I discussed the company's earnings and price targets (PTs) in a Feb. 20 Barchart article, “Palo Alto Networks Stock Has Tanked, But Its Free Cash Flow is Strong - Time to Buy PANW?”
At the time, PANW was at $150.00, and I showed that, based on its adjusted free cash flow (FCF), it could be worth $189.64. Let’s update that PT.
Higher PTs for PANW
Since the earnings release, and management's guidance for 2026 revenue, analysts have raised their revenue forecasts. For example, Seeking Alpha reports that 46 analysts project revenue between $11.29 billion and $13.57 billion for the next two fiscal years ending July 31. That covers the next 6 to 18 months of revenue forecasts from fiscal Q2.
That implies that the next 12 months (NTM) revenue will be $12.43 billion. We can use that to estimate its adj. FCF.
For example, Palo Alto Networks' trailing 12 months (TTM) adj. FCF of $3.747 billion represented 37.9% of its TTM revenue ($9.89 billion), as I showed in my last article. Moreover, management estimates it will make a 37% adj. FCF margin this FY and in FY 2027. Here is how that affects FCF:
$12.43b rev NTM x 0.37 = $4.6 billion adj. FCF NTM
As a result, we can use that to set a price target (PT). For example, PANW's market capitalization is now $132.6 billion, according to Yahoo! Finance. That implies its FCF yield is:
$3.747b LTM adj. FCF / $132.6b = 0.283, or 2.83% FCF yld
So, applying this FCF yield to our NTM adj. FCF forecast produces the following:
$4.6b / 0.0283 = $162.5 billion mkt cap
That implies Palo Alto stock could have a 22.5% higher valuation sometime in the next year (i.e., $162.5/$132.6 = 1.225):
$163.13 x 1.225 = $199.83 PT
That is why I believe PANW's price target is about $200 over the next year. Analysts agree. For example, Yahoo! Finance's analyst survey PT is $207.75, Barchart’s is $207.78, and AnaChart's is $197.87.